WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber Preview and Predictions

April 24, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

WEC 48

WEC 48 marks the organization’s first foray into the Pay-Per-View market. They will get the full UFC treatment on Saturday, complete with Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg on the call, Bruce Buffer doing the introductions, and Dana White handling the promotion. Beyond all that lies one of the best cards of the year on paper, featuring a hotly anticipated featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Urijah Faber.

Antonio Banuelos vs. Scott Jorgensen: This is a rematch from their close decision battle at WEC 41. In that matchup, Banuelos came away with a split-decision victory in one of the best fights of the year. Since then, Banuelos won a unanimous decision over Kenji Osawa at WEC 44, improving his record to 17-5 overall, while Jorgensen has won his past three fights over Noah Thomas, Takeya Mizugaki and Chad George. Jorgensen was an excellent collegiate wrestler, and utilizes it well in the cage. In recent fights, he’s improved his striking and his clinch game, things that will come in handy in this rematch. Banuelos trains with John Hackleman and utilized his striking very well in the first meeting between the two. He probably remains the better striker than Jorgensen, though I think the gap has closed significantly. His defensive wrestling was also solid, limiting Jorgensen’s takedowns and strong ground n’ pound. I think Banuelos will have much more difficulty in stopping Jorgensen’s shot in this contest. I think Jorgensen will come in with a different gameplan, and his skills have improved to where he can actually utilize it as well. Jorgensen via TKO in the 2nd.

Shane Roller vs. Anthony Njokuani: Pretty easy to describe this matchup: wrestler vs. striker. Roller was an excellent collegiate wrestler at Oklahoma State, and has used his strong wrestling background to rack up a 7-2 MMA record. Since entering the WEC, Roller has gone 4-1, with his only loss coming to current WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson. Three of those four victories have come via either guillotine or rear naked choke, which shows that he has been working on other parts of his game as well. However, his striking is nowhere near where it needs to be for Roller to compete with the absolute top fighters in the division. Njokuani is a fearsome striker. He destroyed a tough competitor in Chris Horodecki at WEC 45. He’s 3-1 in his WEC career, with his only loss also coming to Ben Henderson. He’s won three consecutive “Knockout of the Night’” honors and for good reason. His striking is accurate and powerful and his range makes him extremely dangerous from a distance. Njokuani will like to utilize that reach to keep Roller from getting in close, as Njokuani’s defensive wrestling is definitely an area he needs to work on. I just don’t see Roller being able to control Njokuani enough over three rounds to win a decision. Roller also likes to showcase his striking on occasion, and if he does that against Njokuani, it will end very quickly and very badly for him. His only hope is to land takedowns and hope that his top game is good enough to smother Njokuani over three rounds. I see Njokuani catching him eventually. When he does, it’s lights out. Njokuani via TKO in the 1st.

Mike Brown vs. Mavel Gamburyan: Brown will be looking to continue his climb back up the featherweight ladder after losing his title to Jose Aldo at WEC 44. In his first fight after the loss, Brown dominated an overmatched Anthony Morrison at WEC 46. He won that fight via rear naked choke under two minutes into the first round. In this fight, Brown will take on former UFC lightweight Manvel Gamburyan. Gamburyan dropped to the featherweight division and moved over to the WEC after losing two consecutive fights at UFC 87 and UFC 94. The move has proven successful, as Gamburyan has won his first two fights inside the WEC, including a decision victory over Leonard Garcia at WEC 44. Gamburyan is a Judo black belt, and is a solid wrestler. He utilizes a pretty good top game to grind out decisions over guys who aren’t really wrestlers, but he’ll have a hard time doing that against Brown. Gamburyan’s main weakness is his striking, and though Brown isn’t Jose Aldo in that department, he’s good enough to give Gamburyan many problems. He’s also a better wrestler than Gamburyan, and his overall ground game is better as well. I don’t think Gamburyan can win this fight. I just have a really hard time believing that he can do anything better than Brown in this matchup. Brown by unanimous decision.

Donald Cerrone vs. Ben Henderson: This is a rematch for the lightweight title. The two fought at WEC 43 in one of the best fights of the year, with Henderson winning the unanimous decision and ther interim lightweight title. Since then, Henderson unified the title by submitting Jamie Varner at WEC 46, while Cerrone submitted Ed Ratcliff at WEC 45. The first fight between the two was an entertaining and very close fight, and this one shapes up much the same way. Cerrone is the taller fighter, and utilizes his reach advantage in his striking game pretty well. He’s also very dangerous with submissions. His main weakness is his takedown defense, something that Henderson took advantage of in the first matchup. Henderson is improving in all areas of his game, but his striking remains his main weakness. I think Cerrone can take advantage of that fact much more than he did in the first matchup. The key for Cerrone is improvement in his takedown defense. I think part of it stems from the fact that he is very comfortable fighting off his back, but he needs to stuff a few more takedowns in the rematch. I picked Cerrone in the first matchup and I’m not changing that for the rematch. He can control the fight with his reach and his striking, and he is so dangerous on the ground as well that I just don’t see Henderson winning this fight. He’s proven me wrong once, but I don’t think he will again. Cerrone via submission in the 3rd.

Jose Aldo vs. Urijah Faber: It’s the past vs. the present in the main event of the evening. The former WEC featherweight champion and the face of the WEC, Urijah Faber, will take on the current featherweight title holder and one of the most exciting fighters in all of MMA in Jose Aldo. When Faber lost his title to Mike Brown at WEC 36, many people considered it a fluke. He was caught flush with a huge right hand after he came off the cage looking for a spinning elbow. Faber got the rematch with Brown at 41, and this time the fight went the distance with Brown winning again and retaining the title. Faber broke his right hand early in the fight and ended up throwing elbows for the majority of the contest. He rebounded to beat a very tough Raphael Assuncao at WEC 46 via submission. His MMA record stands at 23-3.

Aldo ran through his first four fights in the WEC in quick fashion, and everyone took notice when he KO’d Cub Swanson in only eight seconds at WEC 41. That lightning quick victory earned him the title shot against Mike Brown at WEC 44. Aldo went on to dominate the first round against Brown, and finished him in the 2nd, winning the title. Brown was basically never even competitive in the fight. Aldo’s excellent technical and quick striking battered Brown, and his takedown defense kept the fight standing. He’ll try to employ a similar gameplan against Faber.

Even though Brown beat Faber twice and Aldo beat Brown, MMAth doesn’t always work. I think Faber is a much tougher matchup for Aldo than Brown was. He’s much quicker, though not as quick as Aldo, and Faber is more explosive with his takedowns. Faber’s striking isn’t as technically strong as Brown’s, but he uses unique angles and sometimes reckless moves that have won him numerous fights. I just think Aldo is too much for anyone in the featherweight division right now. I haven’t even mentioned Aldo’s Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, which from all accounts, is pretty dangerous as well. I actually toyed with the idea that Faber could pull off the upset, but in the end, I just don’t see it happening. I think Faber will hang in there longer than many think, but eventually Aldo will take control. Aldo via TKO in the 3rd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Leonard Garcia over Chan Sung Jung via TKO in the 2nd

Anthony Pettis over Alex Karalexis via TKO in the 1st

Demetrious Johnson over Brad Pickett via unanimous decision

Chad Mendes over Anthony Morrison via unanimous decision

Takeya Mizugaki over Rani Yahya via TKO in the 2nd

Tyler Toner over Brandon Visher via TKO in the 1st

Photo Courtesy: Bloody Elbow

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