WEC 44:Brown vs. Aldo Preview and Predictions
While some fans will be watching The Ultimate Fighter tonight, either by choice or because they have Direct TV and don’t have Versus, the real fight fans will be watching WEC 44. WEC 44 features a main event between Mike Brown and Jose Aldo for the featherweight title, and also features a solid undercard of action as well.
Danny Castillo vs. Shane Roller: Castillo fights with Urijah Faber and company at Team Alpha Male. He recently dispatched of Ricardo Lamas in impressive fashion at WEC 42. His MMA record stands at 8-1, with the lone loss coming at the hands of lightweight contender Donald Cerrone at WEC 34. He possesses a strong wrestling background, but the fight with Lamas showed that he has solid striking and good knockout power as well. Roller is 6-2 in his MMA career, and 3-1 in the WEC. His lone WEC loss was to current WEC interim lightweight champion Ben Henderson at WEC 40. Roller rebounded to take a unanimous decision from Marcus Hicks at WEC 42. Roller was a three time All-American wrestler at Oklahoma State, and now fights with Team Takedown, which features UFC fighters Jake Rosholt and Johny Hendricks. He probably has the better wrestling credentials of the two fighters, but I don’t think his striking is up to par with Castillo. However, I think that Roller will be able to utilize his wrestling to maintain top control on Castillo, and he’ll grind out a decision. Roller via unanimous decision.
Rob McCullough vs. Karen Darabedyan: McCullough, the former WEC lightweight champion, will try and climb back up the ladder as he takes on Darabedyan in this contest. McCullough is coming off a majority decision victory over Marcus Hicks at WEC 39. McCullough’s only two WEC losses were to lightweight champion Jamie Varner and top contender Donald Cerrone. He is a dangerous striker and has solid takedown defense. Darabedyan trains with UFC welterweight Karo Parisyan as well as WEC 44’s Manvel Gamburyan. He has a boxing background as well as a background in Judo. He’s 8-1 in his MMA career, and this is his WEC debut. Darabedyan is a late replacement for Anthony Pettis. McCullough may have his hands full with Darabedyan, but if he comes out as the aggressive McCullough of old, he should be able to get a win here. McCullough via TKO in the 2nd.
Leonard Garcia vs. Manvel Gamburyan: Garcia is trying to make his way back in the title picture at featherweight after losing a title challenge to champion Mike Brown at WEC 39. In that fight he was caught early by Brown and was never able to recover. He came back with a close, split decision win over Jameel Massouh at WEC 42. He’s a solid striker with fast hands, but sometimes gets a little sloppy. His ground game is average at best. Gamburyan made the move to featherweight and to the WEC after he had trouble competing with the UFC’s lightweights. He is 9-4 in his MMA career. His win over John Franchi at WEC 41 was hardly impressive. Gamburyan is mostly known for his smothering ground game and his skills in Judo. His striking game is definitely his weakness, and he is constantly at a reach disadvantage because of his small stature. If Garcia can utilize his striking to keep Gamburyan out of range for a takedown, he can win this fight. However, I’m not sure that he can do that for the whole fight. Inevitably, Gamburyan will get a takedown and can control the fight. Gamburyan via unanimous decision.
Mike Thomas Brown vs. Jose Aldo: After disposing of Leonard Garcia and Urijah Faber, Brown will make his third defense of the featherweight title against Jose Aldo. Brown is on a 10-fight winning streak that dates back to 2006. For Aldo to snap that string of victories, he’ll have to avoid Brown’s solid top-game and well-rounded overall game. Brown is 22-4 overall in his MMA career. His striking skills were evident when he knocked out Faber at WEC 36 , and showcased his brown belt Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills when he submitted Garcia with an arm-triangle at WEC 39. In the rematch with Faber he utilized his striking and his wrestling to control Faber throughout the contest. He’ll have a tough matchup in the young and explosive Aldo. Aldo is 15-1 in his MMA career, and has torn through his first five fights in the WEC, with only one of those fights advancing past the first round. He’s an explosive striker as evidenced by his eight second win over Cub Swanson in his most recent fight at WEC 41. However, he’s also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. I know that Aldo is the more explosive of the two strikers, but I’m interested to see how Aldo will react if he has to go to the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds with Brown. I think Brown’s wrestling and top game will grind Aldo down, and eventually Brown will be able to finish the talented Brazilian. It should be one of the best fights of the year. Brown via TKO in the 4th.
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