WEC 42: Torres vs. Bowles preview
WEC 42 has been lost in the shuffle a little bit with UFC 101 taking place the day before, but it still boasts a solid card and a good main event. Here are my picks and analysis for WEC 42:
L.C. Davis vs. Javier Vasquez: Both guys are 13-2 in their MMA careers and have similar strengths. Davis is coming off an upset loss to Michihiro Omigawa at Sengoku 7 back in March, while Vasquez has battled injuries for the past six years, fighting only four times in that span. His last fight was a victory over Mark Kergosien back in June. Both are talented in submissions and also good wrestlers. Vasquez was a top prospect at one time, and he seems fully healed from the series of injuries that derailed his career. Vasquez via unanimous decision.
Diego Nunes vs. Rafael Dias: Nunes is an up-and-coming prospect from Brazil who sports an undefeated 12-0 MMA record. He made his WEC debut at WEC 37, notching a decision victory over Cole Province. He’s an excellent striker, and also mixes in wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Dias fights with American Top Team in Florida and has a 12-5-1 MMA record. He’s 1-1 in the WEC, winning his last time out against Mike Budnik at WEC 40. His main strength is his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Dias sets up as a showcase opponent for Nunes. He’s good enough that a Nunes victory looks impressive, but probably not quite good enough to beat Nunes. I’m expecting Nunes to punish Dias when the fight is standing, and hold him off while the fight is on the ground. Nunes via TKO in the 2nd.
Marcus Hicks vs. Shane Roller: After reeling off three straight wins in his first three WEC fights, Hicks has fallen on hard times, losing to Rob McCullough and Jamie Varner in back-to-back contests. Roller trains with Team Takedown, a camp that boasts other former collegiate wrestling standouts such as Jake Rosholt and UFC 101 winner Johny Hendricks. He was a former wrestler at Oklahoma State, but has struggled a little rounding out his game as he’s transitioned to MMA. Coming off consecutive losses, I’m expecting Hicks to come out firing in this one. He’s quicker and he hits harder. I think it’ll throw Roller off his game, allowing Hicks to get the victory. Hicks via TKO in the 2nd.
Fredson Paixao vs. Cole Province: Paixao last fought at WEC 40, losing a decision to Wagnney Fabiano. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and usually relies on those skills to control fights. Province saw his undefeated record go out the window with a decision loss to the aformentioned Diego Nunes. Province is primarily a wrestler, and the rest of his game hasn’t quite reached the level it needs to be at. It should only be a matter of time before Paixao turns a takedown into a submission. Paixao via submission in the 1st.
Leonard Garcia vs. Jameel Massouh: Garcia is coming off a quick submission loss to Mike Brown in a title shot at WEC 39. Garcia was hit with a big shot early and never really recovered. He remains one of the top featherweights in the world however. Massouh lost his WEC debut to Rafael Assuncao at WEC 40. Massouh is a well rounded fighter, but doesn’t really excel in any one area. Garcia has more ways to finish than Massouh does. Garcia’s striking is far superior, and his ground game is good enough to keep him out of danger. Garcia via unanimous decision.
Takeya Mizugaki vs. Jeff Curran: Mizugaki lost his last fight, a bantamweight title shot vs. Miguel Torres, but was very impressive throughout the fight. He’s one of the top bantamweights in the world, and is an excellent wrestler. However, he also stood toe to toe with Miguel Torres for five rounds, showing his striking is excellent as well. Curran was once a top contender in the WEC, but has lost his last three fights. He lost a featherweight title fight to Urijah Faber at WEC 31, and followed that up with losses to Mike Brown and to Joseph Benavidez in his bantamweight debut. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but also an adept striker. I think Mizugaki should be able to control this fight. His wrestling and submission defense are good enough to keep him out of danger of being submitted by Curran, and I don’t think Curran’s striking is good enough to win a kickboxing match. Mizugaki via unanimous decision.
Ricardo Lamas vs. Danny Castillo: Lamas was very impressive his last time out against Bart Palaszewski, winning a decision. He took that fight on only a week’s notice. He was a Division III wrestling All-American at Elmhurst College in Illinois, and has great takedowns and also very good ground n’ pound. Castillo is part of Team Alpha Male, along with teammates Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez. His last fight was a close split decision victory over Phil Cardella at WEC 39. The win moved his WEC record to 2-1. He was a NAIA wrestling All-American, and also is adept at striking. If Lamas’ last fight was any indication, he can be a force in the WEC featherweight division. He’s more explosive than Castillo, and should be able to control the fight. I’m expecting numerous Lamas takedowns en route to a decision victory. Lamas via unanimous decision.
Dominick Cruz vs. Joseph Benavidez: This is basically a number one contender’s fight in the WEC bantamweight division. Cruz lost his WEC debut to Urijah Faber as a featherweight, but came back to the organization a short time later as a bantamweight and has since reeled off three straight wins. Benavidez is 2-0 in the WEC, with his last victory coming over veteran Jeff Curran at WEC 40. Both guys are similarly skilled and fight similar styles as well. I think that Benavidez is a slightly better wrestler, and his striking is catching up as well. Cruz’s striking is better than Benavidez, but I think Benavidez’s wrestling skills will allow him to control the majority of the fight. Benavidez via split decision.
Miguel Torres vs. Brian Bowles: The main event is for the WEC bantamweight title. Bantamweight king and top five pound-for-pound fighter Miguel Torres has won his past 17 fights, and has defended his title three times since winning it at WEC 32 over Chase Beebe. His last defense was against Takeya Mizugaki at WEC 40, where he was pressed more than he has been in a long time. In the end, Torres’ striking prowess led him to the decision victory. His originally scheduled opponent in that contest was Brian Bowles, but Bowles had to pull out of the fight with a back injury. To go along with his striking, Torres is a Carlson Gracie Jr. trained black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. His MMA record is an impressive 37-1. By contrast, Bowles has only fought seven MMA fights, but has won all of them. His last win was a submission victory over Wil Ribeiro at WEC 37. Bowles is a solid all-around fighter, bringing a strong wrestling base to the cage along with solid striking and submissions. He has no glaring weaknesses but I think that Torres has the advantage in striking as well as the ground game. If Bowles does score a takedown, he could be in some trouble with Torres’ skills on the ground. I just don’t see many avenues for Bowles to win this one. He should press Torres, but in the end, Torres is just better. Torres via TKO in the 3rd.
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