Ultimate Finale 10 Preview and Predictions-Main Card
Marcus Jones vs. Matt Mitrione: The televised portion of the card begins with a matchup of two former NFL players, Marcus Jones and Matt Mitrione. Jones came into the show with a 4-1 record, with all five fights ending in the first round. He trained with Gracie Tampa early in his career before switching to American Top Team. His striking is still very raw, but he showed good takedowns during the show, and has shown flashes of jiu jitsu skills as well. He defeated Mike Wessel in his first fight on the show via armbar, and then beat Darrill Schoonover via TKO in his 2nd fight. Jones eventually was knocked out by Brendan Schaub in the semifinals, and there are lingering questions about his chin. Mitrione came into the show with no pro fights. He outstruck former UFC heavyweight Scott Junk in his first fight, winning a decision. However, Mitrione got caught in a guillotine by James McSweeney in his second fight, ending his run on the show. He has good power, but it one of the sloppiest strikers I’ve ever seen. He also has very little to offer on the ground, something that I think Jones will take advantage of. I’m expecting the fight to start off standing, but Jones will eventually take Mitrione down. From there, I don’t think Mitrione’s guard will present Jones with too many problems. Jones via TKO in the 1st.
Frankie Edgar vs. Matt Veach: Edgar wants to continue to climb up the lightweight rankings. He won his first three fights in the UFC over Tyson Griffin, Mark Bocek and Spencer Fisher, but his momentum was halted when he lost to Gray Maynard at UFC Fight Night 13. Edgar has rebounded from the loss to win consecutive fights over Hermes Franca and Sean Sherk. Edgar is a very solid wrestler. His jiu jitsu skills are improving, and he also displayed a better striking game against Sherk than he had shown previously. Edgar’s opponent for this fight was scheduled to be Kurt Pellegrino, but when Pellegrino had to pull out due to an injury, Matt Veach stepped in. Veach is an impressive 11-0 in his MMA career, and beat Matt Grice via TKO in his UFC debut in February. In that fight, Veach was in danger of being stopped, but rebounded and pulled out the victory. He also has a collegiate wrestling background and trains with Matt Hughes and the HIT Squad. Unfortunately for Veach, everything he does, I think Edgar does better. Edgar via unanimous decision.
Kimbo Slice vs. Houston Alexander: For many, this fight will act as the main event of the evening. Slice shocked many by agreeing to participate on The Ultimate Fighter this season. However, once he got on the show, many were impressed by his dedication and his willingness to improve. Slice was beaten by the much more experienced Roy Nelson in his first and only fight on the show, showing absolutely nothing in terms of ground skills. Since the show ended taping, Slice has been training with American Top Team in Florida. They have talked about Kimbo’s improvement, but most camps say that about their fighters. I’ve noticed some not-so-good signs from Kimbo in recent days. He talked about how he was doing the weight cut by himself and that it was taking a toll on him mentally. There have also been reports about his “entourage” having more of an influence on him than his coaches this week. If he comes into this fight unprepared, it’ll be a short night. Alexander is a dangerous light heavyweight. He burst onto the UFC scene with a devastating TKO victory over Keith Jardine at UFC 71, and followed that up with another first round victory over Alessio Sakara at UFC 75. From there, Alexander ran into some trouble, dropping three consecutive contests to Thiago Silva, James Irvin, and Eric Shafer. He’ll need a win here to keep his spot in the UFC. He also has shown no signs of a ground game, but his striking is much more refined than Kimbo’s. Alexander makes good use of kicks and also has Muay Thai skills. These are things that Kimbo hasn’t really seen yet. I don’t think this fight hits the ground, and I doubt it makes the 2nd round either. Neither of these guys are known for having even adequate chins, so the chance that somone drops in the opening exchange of the fight is quite good. Alexander will be too much for Kimbo here. He may get another chance at a lesser opponent, but it’s also possible Kimbo’s UFC career begins and ends tonight. Alexander via TKO in the 1st.
Roy Nelson vs. Brendan Schaub: One of the most experienced contestants in Ultimate Fighter history, Roy Nelson will have a huge edge in that department tonight against Brendan Schaub. Nelson eliminated Kimbo Slice, Justin Wren and James McSweeney on his path to the finale. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and has fought guys like Andrei Arlovski, Ben Rothwell and Jeff Monson during his career. He doesn’t look the part of a dangerous UFC heavyweight, but he definitely has the skills to compete. My pick to win the show before it started, Schaub was impressive in his road to the Finale. He beat Demico Rogers in the first round of his first fight, then KO’d Jon Madsen in the 2nd round of his next fight, before KO’ing Marcus Jones in the semifinals. He’s still learning, but for a guy who just started training MMA a few years ago, he’s very impressive. He has good striking and impressive power in his hands. He’s still working on his ground game, but the trips he’s made to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico along with the work he’s done with Nate Marquardt and Shane Carwin in Colorado have helped him greatly. Nelson is obviously the safe pick here, but I think Schaub can surprise some people. I’m going with the upset and picking Schaub. Brendan Schaub via unanimous decision.
Jon Jones vs. Matt Hamill: In the main event of the night, rising light heavyweight prospect Jon “Bones” Jones will try and take the next step towards the top of the light heavyweight division as he takes on Matt Hamill. Jones, at only 21 years of age, is one of the top prospects in all of MMA. He brings a solid wrestling background, good athleticism and flashy, unorthodox and accurate striking to the table. He’s 9-0 in his young MMA career, and a perfect 3-0 in the UFC. He defeated Andre Gusmao in his UFC debut at UFC 87, then followed that up with a very impressive decision win over Stephan Bonnar at UFC 94. Jones defeated Jake O’Brien at UFC 100 with a guillotine. Hamill also brings very solid wrestling skills into this contest. He was a three-time Division III national champion. He’s made the transition to MMA nicely, going 6-2 to start his UFC career. His last fight was a win over Mark Munoz at UFC 96. He knocked Munoz out with a headkick in that fight, something he hadn’t really shown before. He’s one of the stronger guys in the division. His striking has certainly improved since he entered the UFC, but isn’t on the level of Jones. Hamill can definitely pose some threats to Jones in the wrestling department, but I think Jones is the overall better fighter. Look for Jones to take the next step up the ladder with a victory tonight. Jones via unanimous decision.
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Related posts:
- The Ultimate Finale 10 Recap
- Ultimate Finale 10 Preview and Predictions-Preliminary Card
- Nelson vs. Schaub Set for ‘TUF’ Finale/Kimbo vs. Alexander Also Official
- UFC 113: Machida vs. Shogun II- Preview and Predictions
- Kimbo Slice vs. Matt Mitrione Likely for UFC 113
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