UFC on Versus 1 Preview and Predictions

March 21, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

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For fans of the NHL and MMA, the deal between Direct TV and Versus couldn’t come soon enough. For UFC fans in particular, this week’s deal will enable millions of people the opportunity to watch the first UFC event on Versus tonight. The card is headlined by Jon Jones, who is considered to be one of the top prospects in all of MMA. His opponent will be a guy who was once in Jones’ position as one of the most hyped prospects in MMA, Brandon Vera. In the co-main event of the evening, rising heavyweight prospect Junior dos Santos will take on Gabriel Gonzaga, a heavyweight who’s already had a title shot but is looking to regain his place amongst the division’s elite.

Alessio Sakara vs. James Irvin: The night will begin with a pair of middleweights in Sakara and Irvin. Both fighters once competed in the light heavyweight division, and Irvin was actually a heavyweight at one time in his career. If you saw the pictures of Irvin at yesterday’s weigh ins, it appears the weight cut down to 185 was pretty tough on him. Sakara is coming off consecutive wins over Thales Leites and Joe Vedepo, which is significant considering the last time he strung two victories together was in 2005. He was scheduled to fight in December against Rousimar Palhares at The Ultimate Finale 10, but pulled out with an injury. Sakara comes from a boxing background and trains at American Top Team. Irvin is also primarily a striker. He hasn’t fought since July of 2008 after knee injuries have made him withdraw from several scheduled fights. His last fight was a knockout loss about one minute into his fight with Anderson Silva. Silva was moving up to light heavyweight to face Irvin in the main event of a show that was countering Affliction: Banned. Irvin was very tenative in the opening minute before thowing a kick that was caught by Silva. After Silva caught the kick, he delivered a right hand that knocked Irvin down. Silva quickly pounced and finished Irvin off. The loss dropped Irvin’s record to 14-5. He has significant power, and that should be even more evident at 185, but has numerous holes in his game including stamina and defensive wrestling. Irvin should have the power advantage over Sakara, and neither guy possesses a world class chin, but I think if the fight gets past the first round, Sakara will have the advantage. I expect an early flurry from Irvin, but Sakara will survive to finish the fight in the 2nd. Sakara via TKO in the 2nd.

Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello: Kongo is looking to get back into the win column after a first round loss to Frank Mir at UFC 107, while Buentello is trying to hang onto his UFC contract after losing a decision to Stefan Struve also at UFC 107. Kongo was a fringe contender to the UFC’s heavyweight title after after winning three consecutive fights over Antoni Hardonk, Mostapha Al Turk and Dan Evensen. Those victories improved his UFC record to 7-2 before he faced rising heavyweight contender Cain Velasquez. Kongo dropped Velasquez at the beginning of each round, but Velasquez’s huge wrestling advantage allowed him to survive the onslaught. Once Velasquez had Kongo on the ground, Kongo seemed lost and didn’t do much in the way of defending himself. Wrestling has always been a weakness of Kongo’s. In the fight with Mir, Kongo was dropped with a hook before Mir locked on a guillotine to get the finish. Kongo shouldn’t have to worry too much about the ground game in this one, as Buentello is another heavyweight who likes to slug it out. Buentello signed with the UFC after Affliction folded. In that promotion, Buentello had gone 2-0, defeating Gary Goodridge and Kirill Sidelnikov. Before the loss to Struve, Buentello had won six of his past seven fights dating back to 2006, though the competition he faced was pretty lackluster. He had a shot for the UFC heavyweight title in his first run with the company, but lost in the first round to champion Andrei Arlovski. For his career, Buentello holds a 27-11 record, with a 3-2 UFC record. Kongo should have the advantage in this one. He’s a better overall striker than Buentello, and his ground n’ pound game is actually quite good if the fight hits the ground with Kongo on top. This seems like a fight that Kongo should win rather easily. Kongo via TKO in the 2nd.

Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: This is a tough one for me as I’m a fan of both guys. Dos Santos made a splash onto the UFC scene by knocking out Fabricio Werdum in a tremendous upset at UFC 90. Since then, Dos Santos has proven that the knockout win over Werdum was no fluke by defeating Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop and Gilbert Yvel, with none of those fights going the distance. He trains at Black House alongside the Nogueira brothers, Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and Demian Maia. Along with his solid striking and knockout power, dos Santos is continuing to learn Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He is currently a purple belt, but he’ll be facing a decorated black belt in Gonzaga in this contest. I’m not sure how dos Santos’ BJJ will hold up to Gonzaga, but with all the talented BJJ fighters he trains with, I’m banking on the fact that he’ll have at least solid defensive jiu jitsu to keep him out of too much trouble. Dos Santos is probably on the list of possible title challengers for Brock Lesnar after Shane Carwin, Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir, and a win here will keep him right in the mix. Gonzaga fought for the heavyweight title against Randy Couture at UFC 74, but lost via TKO in the 3rd round. He followed that up with another loss, this time to Fabricio Werdum at UFC 80. Gonzaga strung together consecutive victories before facing Shane Carwin at UFC 96. Gonzaga hurt Carwin early and had top position on him when the fight moved to the ground, but Carwin was able to escape to his feet where he connected with a flat-footed jab that buckled and dropped Gonzaga. The first-round loss to Carwin was a damaging blow to Gonzaga’s title shot hopes. He returned to the Octagon to face Chris Tuchscherer at UFC 102 in a fight that was marred by a low blow that nearly ended the fight. Tuchscherer was eventually able to continue, but was still hurt when Gonzaga connected with a head kick and subsequent strikes that followed the fight. Gonzaga is a solid wrestler and extremely talented Jiu Jitsu guy, but sometimes he falls in love too much with his striking. In this contest, if he stands too long with dos Santos, it’ll end quickly. I think dos Santos has the clear edge in the striking game, and if the fight hits the ground, I think dos Santos has enough knowledge to keep himself out of danger. Junior dos Santos via unanimous decision.

Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones: Jones will be looking to continue his ascent up the light heavyweight ranks as he takes on Vera. Jones last fought Matt Hamill at The Ultimate Finale 10. He dominated that fight, but ended up losing via disqualification because of illegal elbow strikes delivered while he was mounted on Hamill. After the fight, it seemed as if the reason Hamill wasn’t able to continue was because of a shoulder injury suffered on a takedown from Jones, but the DQ loss stood. Even though it’s a loss on his record, the performance did nothing but help show that Jones is the real deal. In his young career, Jones is an impressive 9-1 in his career, with wins in the UFC over Andre Gusmao, Stephan Bonnar, and Jake O’Brien. He comes from a wrestling background, and his Greco-Roman skills have really been showcased in his UFC career, especially in the win over Bonnar. His striking is unorthodox, and is aided by his tremendous reach. After beginning his MMA career 9-0 along with four straight wins in the UFC, Brandon Vera seemed to be on the fast track to stardom. A contract dispute, a lackluster performance in his return fight against Tim Sylvia and a subsequent loss to Fabricio Werdum derailed Vera’s hype train. The Vera hype was completely gone after an awful performance in a win over Reese Andy, a tenative performance in a loss to Keith Jardine, and a non-descript win over Krzysztof Soszynski at UFC 102. Vera most recently fought Randy Couture at UFC 105. It was a very close fight, and though the decision went to Couture, Vera could have easily gotten the nod. However, his performance was much of the same as we had been seeing from him ever since the contract dispute. He just seems tenative and hasn’t shown many flashes of the talented striker with the killer instinct version of himself that we saw so much of early in his career. Is it too late for him? No, it’s not. But I’m not going to buy into the same things we hear from Vera before every fight. You can only hear that Vera is going to come in like the old version of himself and come out with reckless abandon so many times without actually seeing it before you finally stop believing that it’s ever going to come back. He certainly has the skills to compete with Jones in this fight. His striking is overall better than Jones’, though Jones’ reach advantage and unorthodox striking confuse most opponents. Vera’s an underrated wrestler and grappler as well. I just think that Jones is a better fighter than the current version of Vera. Jones via unanimous decision.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Clay Guida over Shannon Gugerty via unanimous decision

Vladimir Matyushenko over Eliot Marshall via unanimous decision

Darren Elkins over Duane Ludwig via submission in the 2nd

John Howard over Daniel Roberts via unanimous decision

Brendan Schaub over Chase Gormley via TKO in the 1st

Mike Pierce over Julio Paulino via TKO in the 2nd

Eric Schafer over Jason Brilz via submission in the 2nd

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