UFC on Fox: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos Preview
The UFC’s first venture on network TV features only one fight, but it is a big one. Cain Velasquez will defend his heavyweight championship against Junior Dos Santos. There’s also a very important fight in the co-main event that will not be televised, as Ben Henderson and Clay Guida battle for a potential lightweight title shot against champion Frankie Edgar.
Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida: Henderson lost his WEC lightweight championship to Anthony Pettis at WEC 53. The WEC soon merged with the UFC, and Henderson was given tough competition right off the bat. In his first UFC fight, Henderson fought Mark Bocek and defeated him via unanimous decision. Henderson’s next fight was against Jim Miller, who was on a seven fight winning streak and on the cusp of a title shot. Henderson dominated Miller over three rounds, winning the unanimous decision. Guida has also been on quite a roll, winning his past four fights, including wins over Takinori Gomi and Anthony Pettis.
In a way, Guida reminds me a lot of the guy that Henderson just beat, Jim Miller. Both have pretty solid all-around games, with Miller probably having a bit better striking and better Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Guida has worked hard over the past few years with Greg Jackson to improve his striking and make it more fluid. He has improved in that area, but still not enough in my opinion. His wrestling game is good, but mainly due to his persistance instead of having immense skill. Henderson has shown very good takedown defense in his career, and seems to be nearly impossible to hold down or submit. On the feet, Henderson isn’t a world beater, but he has the advantage over Guida there as well. All signs point to a Henderson victory to me. Guida just doesn’t do anything better than Henderson does, and Henderson isn’t going to wear down from Guida’s persistant attacks. Guida will probably go the distance, but it will be in a losing effort. Henderson via unanimous decision.
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos: Obviously, this is one of the biggest fights in UFC history. As the only fight being shown on the UFC’s network television debut, both fighters are under an enormous amount of pressure to perform and create an exciting fight. Dos Santos has won his first seven UFC fights to earn this title shot. He began his UFC career with an upset KO win over Fabricio Werdum and hasn’t looked back, rattling off wins against Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Gilbert Yvel, Gabriel Gonzaga, Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin. He hasn’t really been severely threatened in any of those contests, making his run even more impressive. Velasquez is only nine fights into his MMA career, making the fact that he is holding the UFC title even more impressive. He only fought twice outside the UFC before taking on Brad Morris at UFC 83. He took out Morris via 1st round TKO, and wasn’t really tested until his fourth UFC fight, against Cheick Kongo. Kongo rocked Velasquez early in each of the three rounds, wobbling him several times. Velasquez was able to score takedowns each time, and ended up getting the unanimous decision victory. Back-to-back wins over Ben Rothwell and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira earned him the title shot against Brock Lesnar at UFC 121. He withstood an early onslaught by Lesnar, and battered him badly standing before getting the TKO victory in the first round. It was a very impressive performance for Velasquez, but unfortunately, he suffered a rotator cuff injury during the fight that has kept him out of action since.
The shoulder injury is one of the main questions going into this fight. He had surgery on it, but it’s hard to determine if Velasquez will be hampered by it somewhat throughout the rest of his career. Shoulder injuries are very difficult to predict for someone who will continue to make repetitive actions (punching) with it. Along with the surgery itself, the effect that the long layoff will have on Velasquez is unknown. Dos Santos fought twice since Velasquez was out, beating Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin in three-round fights, so he should be better prepared to go the distance in this one than the fighter who’s been out of action for almost a full year.
In the standup, I think Dos Santos has the advantage. Velasquez has made great strides during his career in this area, but I think Dos Santos might have the best boxing in the entire UFC heavyweight division. Neither man will have a significant reach advantage, but Dos Santos will have the speed advantage. It’s hard not to look back on Velasquez’s fight with Kongo and think that Dos Santos will be able to exploit the same hole in his defense and connect early and often. Velasquez’s chin was solid enough to get him through that fight, but can he take some of the same shots from Dos Santos? I’m not so sure.
Velasquez obviously has the wrestling advantage in this fight. One thing we really haven’t seen in Dos Santos’ career is his ability to fight off his back. He’s shown good takedown defense in his career, but hasn’t gone against someone who is as good of a wrestler as Velasquez. Dos Santos does train with the Nogueiras, so you would think that he has at least some idea of what to do off of his back. The fight with Lesnar showed that Velasquez has made strides in his ground n’ pound game, so if he can get Dos Santos down to the ground, it’s hard to predict exactly what will happen. You have to think that Velasquez’s game plan is to find out what kind of fighter Dos Santos is off of his back.
I think that Dos Santos will have to fend off some takedown attempts early, and may have to survive some of Velasquez’s ground assault, but I think the majority of this fight will take place standing. This is where Dos Santos has the advantage, and I expect him to pick apart Velasquez en route to a victory. Dos Santos via TKO in the 3rd.
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