UFC on Fox 2: Preview and Predictions
As important as the first UFC on Fox event was to the UFC, the second may be even moreso. This will be the first network event under the actual contract (the first was explained as a special “bonus”), and will feature three fights instead of only one. And while this event won’t have a title fight as the first event did, it will showcase the format that the UFC as well as Fox Sports will use going forward.
Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman: Weidman is one of the best middleweight prospects around, and has showcased that promised as he’s opened his UFC career with three straight wins. Weidman is filling in on short notice for Mark Munoz, who was scheduled to face Chael Sonnen in the co-main event. An injury forced him off the card, and Michael Bisping was bumped up to face Sonnen. In need of an opponent for Maia, the UFC turned to Weidman who is being rewarded with a tremendous opportunity so early in his career. Maia is one of the top middleweights in the world, and has an impressive 9-3 record in the UFC. In his last fight, Maia won a unanimous decision over Jorge Rivera at UFC 136. Both of these guys like to take the fight to the ground, but for different reasons. Weidman was a very successful collegiate wrestler, earning All-American honors twice while attending Hofstra. Maia is simply one of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practicioners in the sport. He’s won five of his fights in the UFC via submission. However, he is also a vastily underrated wrestler. Those takedown skills enable him to utilize his great BJJ skills. Maia’s striking is also improved over the level he was at earlier in his career. He isn’t necessarily a knockout threat, but has at least improved enough to round out his overall game. Weidman is also picking up submissions very quickly under the tuteledge of Matt Serra, and has submitted his last two opponents. He won’t want to play that game too much with Maia however, and will likely be content maintaining position on top and punishing Maia with ground n’ pound. This is a very interesting fight, and could really vault Weidman up the rankings. For Maia, it’s a very low reward fight. Weidman doesn’t have great name recognition, so a win won’t help Maia as much as it will Weidman. However, with the fight being on short notice for Weidman, I’m going with Maia. He’s simply too dangerous on the ground, and his striking has improved enough to at least make him a threat. Maia via unanimous decision.
Michael Bisping vs. Chael Sonnen: Bisping took this fight on short notice after preparing for Maia, and UFC President Dana White has said that the winner will receive a title shot against UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. After pushing Silva to the brink in their first encounter, Sonnen is itching for a chance to take on Silva again. For the UFC, either fight would be a win. The Sonnen/Silva fight would do great PPV business, while a Bisping/Silva fight would help the UFC’s continued expansion into Europe. Bisping came off coaching on The Ultimate Fighter 14 and beat opposing coach Jason “Mayhem” Miller via TKO at the finale. He’s won his past four fights, and is an impressive 12-3 in the UFC. Sonnen is widely considered the number two middleweight in the world. He was suspended after the Silva fight due to testing positive for testosterone in the pre-fight drug test, but came back to dominate Brian Stann at UFC 136. He took Stann down at will and was able to advance position until finally choking out Stann in the second round. Prior to earning the shot at Silva, Sonnen rolled through Dan Miller, Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt in successive fights. Sonnen’s gameplan is no secret. He’s one of the most accomplished wrestlers in all of MMA, and he will look to take this fight to the ground early and often. Bisping meanwhile, would prefer to keep this fight standing. Bisping has a very underrated ground game as well as solid takedown defense. However, Sonnen can basically take down any fighter in the middleweight division, so that shouldn’t prevent much of an issue in this contest. He will not be able to advance position as easily on Bisping as he was able to do against Stann however. In the standup game, Bisping has the clear edge. He prefers volume over power, and the style has been very successful for him in the past. Sonnen showed better striking in the fight against Silva, but still would prefer to make this a grappling contest. It’s a close fight, so I’m going with the dominant individual skill in this fight. In this case, it’s Sonnen’s wrestling. Sonnen via unanimous decision.
Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis: The stakes are high for Rashad Evans in this fight. A win (and getting out injury-free) would earn him a long-awaited title shot against Jon Jones. A loss to the up and coming, but still somewhat unknown Davis would drop him back in line behind a host of other challengers. For Davis, this could be a career-making fight. He’s already one of the top rising stars in the light heavyweight division, but a win over the former title-holder will put him on the fast-track to stardom. The back-and-forth between these two at the pre-fight press conference was entertaining, and it will be fun to see if they can translate that same energy into the cage on Saturday night.
Evans is one of the top fighters in the light heavyweight division. After earning the title by stopping Forrest Griffin at UFC 92, he dropped it to Lyoto Machida at UFC 98. Since that loss, Evans has posted three straight wins over Thiago Silva, “Rampage” Jackson and most recently, Tito Ortiz. However, injuries and bad timing have prevented him from cashing in on promised title shots. Overall, the former title-holder is 16-1-1 in his MMA career, and is 11-1-1 in the UFC. Davis was a four-time All-American wrestler at Penn State University, winning the championship in 2008. Since entering MMA in 2008, Davis has been virtually unstoppable, rattling off nine straight wins to open his career, including his first five fights in the UFC. He was part of the main-event in his last fight, as he defeated Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC Fight Night 24. Though primarily a wrestler, his atheltic ability and long reach has earned him comparisions to Jon Jones. Davis is nowhere close to that level as of yet, and his main weakness is his striking. He mixes in punches and kicks, but the overall package isn’t quite refined as of yet. His submission game is continually improving, and his sheer strength makes it dangerous for other fighters to get into a grappling contest with him. Where Evans will have the advantage in this one is his striking. Though he will be at a disadvantage in the reach department, he is quicker and more technical in his striking. Also, while Evans was nowhere near the caliber of wrestler that Davis was in college, his wrestling skills have translated well to MMA. I think this will be an extremely interesting contest, and will show how far Phil Davis has come in his short career thus far. However, Evans has the striking skills needed to keep Davis off-balance, and is solid enough in his wrestling background to keep himself out of too much trouble on the ground. Evans via unanimous decision.
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