UFC Fight Night 19 Main Card Predictions
Nate Quarry vs. Tim Credeur: The 37-year old Quarry brings an 11-3 overall MMA record and a 6-2 UFC record into this contest. The only two fighters that Quarry has lost to during his UFC career are former middleweight champion Rich Franklin, and middleweight contender Demian Maia. He last fought at UFC 97, earning a TKO victory over Jason MacDonald. Credeur is 3-0 so far in his UFC career, though those victories were against lower end competition such as Cale Yarbrough, Nate Loughran, and Nick Catone. Credeur has a slick ground game, but Quarry is a huge step up for him. Quarry gets most of his wins with striking and a solid top game. I don’t expect Credeur to be able to put Quarry on his back to effectively work his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, and I think Quarry is talented enough from the top to fend off Credeur’s submission attempts from the bottom. Quarry via TKO in the 2nd.
Carlos Condit vs. Jake Ellenberger: Ellenberger is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Chris Lytle. He has a 21-4 MMA record, and this will be his UFC debut. He has fought for Bodog, the IFL and Bellator among other organizations. He trains at Team Quest alongside Dan Henderson and Matt Lindland. As expected, he has a solid wrestling game to go along with good striking power and decent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Condit will be making his second appearance in the UFC. In his debut, he lost a decision to top contender Martin Kampmann. He’s 23-5 overall in his MMA career, and is the former WEC welterweight champion. He is solid in all facets of MMA, and probably better than Ellenberger in all of them. Ellenberger has the power to make an upset possible, but Condit is much more technical in his striking, and that should give him the advantage here. Condit via TKO in the 2nd.
Gray Maynard vs. Roger Huerta: Huerta is in the last fight of his UFC contract, and has made it known he plans on pursuing an acting career after this fight. He hasn’t fought since losing to Kenny Florian at UFC 87. His UFC record stands at an impressive 6-1. However, besides Clay Guida, most of Huerta’s victories have come against lower-level competition. Maynard trains at Xtreme Couture, and has a solid wrestling background. He was a top 10 finisher at the Collegiate Wrestling Championships three times while wrestling for Michigan State University. Additionally, he has shown better striking skills in recent performances, especially in his unanimous decision win over Jim Miller at UFC 96. He is on the threshold of possibly getting a lightweight title shot, but definitely needs a victory here to get him closer. He should be able to do it. Though word is that Huerta has trained hard and well for this fight, the problem for him is that he has struggled with fighters such as Maynard before. Guida was giving him fits before he connected with a fight-changing knee, but Maynards wrestling is better than Guida’s. Unless Huerta fixed the major flaws in his game, Maynard is the safe pick. Maynard via unanimous decision.
Melvin Guillard vs. Nate Diaz: The main event for UFC Fight Night 19 features two lightweights trying to climb towards the top of the division. Guillard has a solid 5-3 record in the UFC, with wins over Marcus Davis and Gleison Tibau among others. He likes to keep the fight standing, and he has vicious hand speed and knockout power. However, he has shown in the past that he is susceptible to strong submission fighters such as Rich Clementi and Joe Stevenson. He did look a little better in fending off submissions in his win over Tibau at The Ultimate Finale 9 though. Diaz is a former winner of The Ultimate Fighter, but has dropped his last two fights against Clay Guida and Joe Stevenson. He desperately needs a win here to get back on the right track. Like his brother Nick, Nate posseses a standout submission game to go along with solid boxing skills. He’ll have a reach advantage over Guillard in this contest, so he should utilize his jab to keep Guillard at a distance to nullify Guillard’s power advantage. If he can get the fight to the ground, he should be able to end Guillard’s night quickly. However, Diaz likes to be in standup wars, even if it would be in his interest to not engage is such battles. That will be his downfall here. I think Guillard will connect with his superior hand speed and power, and finish Diaz soon after. Guillard via TKO in the 2nd.
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