UFC 99 Preview

June 12, 2009 | Tim | Comments 0

MMA Record- 134-80 (63%)

UFC 99 hasn’t received a lot of attention because it takes place in Germany and is sandwiched between two high profile cards (Machida/Evans at UFC 98 and Mir/Lesnar, GSP/Alves at UFC 100) but it features many very good matchups and is one of the better cards of the year. Here is my breakdown of UFC 99!

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Mustapha Al-Turk: Cro Cop makes his return to the UFC where he struggled to a 1-2 record his first time around. After destroying Eddie Sanchez in his UFC debut, Cro Cop struggled in back to back losses to Gabriel Gonzaga (KO) and Cheick Kongo (decision). In his return fight Mirko gets a perfect opponent for him. Al-Turk is a tough guy and relatively well-rounded, but shouldn’t pose much of a threat to Mirko. Al-Turk fought Cheick Kongo at UFC 92 and after the two exchanged low blows, Kongo was able to connect on a right hand and followed up with some brutal ground ‘n’ pound to finish the fight. Even though it appears as if his skills may be declining, I’m expecting Mirko to come out and dominate Al-Turk. Cro Cop via TKO in the 1st

Spencer Fisher vs. Caol Uno : Uno is also making a return to the UFC, but has split his last six fights overseas. In his first run in the UFC, Uno went a respectable 3-3-1, losing to B.J. Penn and Jens Pulver along the way. Fisher is one of the more underrated and underappreciated fighters in the UFC. His MMA record is 22-4 and he is 7-3 in the UFC. Included in those seven UFC wins are victories over Sam Stout, Matt Wiman and #1 welterweight contender Thiago Alves. Uno usually relies on his strong wrestling, but sometimes gets too involved in trying to put on a show with the fans. Add that together with his sometimes questionable chin and you have a bad combination when he’s fighting a pretty good striker in Fisher. Fisher’s main weakness has always been his wrestling. If Uno turns this into a wrestling contest, he would have a good chance to win this one, but I don’t think he’ll do that. I think Fisher will get the better of the striking and win this one. Fisher via unanimous decision

Marcus Davis vs. Dan Hardy This one has been getting heated. These guys don’t like each other, and Hardy has been asking for a fight with Davis for awhile and will finally get his wish. Hardy is coming off an impressive and quick KO victory over Rory Markham at UFC 95, while Davis beat Chris Lytle on the same card. Although both of these guys like to keep fights standing, the difference may be Davis’ improving ground game. By no means is it world class, but it’s definitely better than anything Hardy has to offer on the ground. In the stand up battle, it should be pretty even. Hardy has good striking skills while Davis has a boxing background. Davis is probably a little better defensively, but he will be at a reach disadvantage in this one. I think versatility will give Davis the edge in the fight. If he isn’t getting the better of the striking exchanges, he can always take the fight to the ground. Hardy really doesn’t have that same luxury. I think Davis takes this one pretty easily. Davis via TKO in the 2nd .

More After the Jump!!

Mike Swick vs. Ben Saunders : I won’t lie, I’m biased in this one. I’m a fan of Mike Swick and have been for awhile. No, he’s likely not a championship caliber fighter, but he generally is entertaining to watch. He seemed to struggle with his drop down to welterweight from middleweight in his first couple times out, but he was much better and quicker in his last time out against Jonathan Goulet, a fight in which he finished in the first minute. Saunders is coming off a very impressive and dominating victory over Travis Wolff, a fighter who honestly doesn’t belong in the UFC. Saunders is 3-0 in the UFC against pretty poor competition, while Swick has amassed an 8-1 UFC record with victories over Joe Riggs, Josh Burkman and Marcus Davis who are solid but not spectacular fighters in their own right. This is another fight that is likely to be a striking contest. Saunders has the reach advantage and also has a pretty good Thai clinch game, although I think that was a little partially the fact that his opponent (Wolff) looked like he had never even worked on that in camp. Swick should be a different story. He trains with guys like Jon Fitch and Josh Koscheck down at AKA and should be well prepared for what Saunders brings to the table. I think Swick will use his quickness and hand speed to control the fight. Swick via unanimous decision.

Cain Velasquez vs. Cheick Kongo : Kongo took this fight on short notice after Heath Herring came down with an injury and was unable to compete. He is coming off a TKO victory over Antoni Hardonk at UFC 97 in April, so he hasn’t taken much time off. Velasquez is undefeated in his young MMA career, and is one of the most hyped heavyweight prospects the UFC has ever had. He was a strong collegiate wrestler and has used that base to amass a 5-0 MMA record, with all those fights ending by way of TKO. His last fight was a TKO victory over the overmatched Denis Stojnic at UFC Fight Night in February. Kongo is probably one victory away from getting himself a title shot. He has never been good at avoiding takedowns as evidenced by his decision loss to Heath Herring at UFC 82. Herring is hardly the wrestler that Velasquez is. However, Kongo has improved in that aspect slightly, though I don’t think he’s good enough from stopping Velasquez from taking him down at will. Kongo is a dangerous striker, and while Velasquez has looked good against bad competition, Kongo is certainly the better striker here. The smart gameplan for Velasquez would be to utilize his wrestling base to control this one on the ground and grind out a decision victory. It may not be pretty, but I expect him to do just that. Velasquez via unanimous decision .

Rich Franklin vs. Wanderlei Silva : Everyone knows I’m a huge Franklin fan, so this is a difficult one for me. Franklin is coming off a very close decision loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 93 where many (myself included) think he should have won the decision. He has made his way back up to the light heavyweight division where he started his career at, but is dropping down to the catchweight of 195 for this bout against Silva. Silva is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Quentin Jackson at UFC 92 and has gone 1-4 in his past five fights. He’s in a weird position because one more loss may knock him out of the UFC completely, while a victory may get him middleweight title shot against Anderson Silva because of the brewing bad blood between the two. Needless to say he has a lot riding on this fight. This fight will be a contrast of striking styles. Franklin is much more conservative. He fights from a southpaw stance and fires his punches and kicks at odd angles. He is a good solid striker, but doesn’t have overwhelming knockout power. His wins are usually due to an accumulation of punches rather than one single blow. On the other hand, Silva is a wild striker. He has huge power in his hands and is very aggressive. He has a tendency to drop his right hand when he fires a left jab which could get him in trouble from the southpaw Franklin who has a pretty good straight left.

Silva also excells in the Muay Thai clinch, a position that Franklin couldn’t defend against when he fought Anderson Silva on two occasions. He also has an underrated ground game. The same can be said for Franklin, who has really worked on his takedown defense against his last two opponents, Matt Hamill and Dan Henderson, two very good wrestlers. He likely won’t need it in this fight, but it’s there if he does. He also is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Jorge Gurgel. The difference in this one may be gameplans. Silva has never really utilized one, while Franklin has had some solid gameplans since he started training with “the Wizard” Matt Hume and the guys over at AMC Pankration in Seattle. Look for Franklin to utilize his reach advantage and his superior footwork to allow him to get in, strike, and get out of the pocket before Silva can connect. I think it will start to frustrate Silva, who may leave himself vulnerable to a solid left from Franklin. Even though Franklin doesn’t have huge knockout power as I mentioned earlier, I think Silva’s chin has deteriorated to a point where Franklin can do some serious damage with a well-placed shot. That’s how I think this one ends. Franklin via TKO in the 2nd.

UFC 99 Preview

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