UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Preview and Predictions
UFC 141 features one of the biggest main events in UFC history, literally. Former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar takes on the Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem in a fight that will determine the next challenger to Junior dos Santos’ UFC heavyweight title.
Jim Hettes vs. Nam Phan: The solid veteran Nam Phan will take on the BJJ upstart in Jim Hettes in a featherweight fight. Phan is 17-9 in his career, and holds a 1-2 UFC record (which really should be 2-1). In his last fight at UFC 136, Phan got revenge against Leonard Garcia after he was robbed of a victory in their first fight, this time beating him by unanimous decision. The 24-year old Hettes is undefeated in his career at 9-0, and is 1-0 in the UFC. He defeated Alex Caceres at UFC on Versus 5 via submission in his debut. This is a pretty even fight on paper, with Phan having the striking advantage and Hettes having an advantage on the canvas with his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. However, Phan is also pretty talented on the ground. Hettes is effective with the way he chains submissions together and transitions from one to another, but it will be difficult to submit Phan. Phan also has a huge overall experience advantage. It’s that advantage that should keep him calm in rough situations, of which there will likely be a few in this fight. Phan via unanimous decision.
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Vladimir Matyushenko: A battle of light heavyweights at two vastly different points of their careers in this one. The 24-year old Gustafsson is 12-1 overall in his career and holds a 4-1 record in the UFC. His lone loss was to Phil Davis at UFC 112. After that loss to Davis, Gustafsson took Davis up on an offer to train together. Since they started training together, Gustafsson has looked tremendous. He beat both James te Huna and Cyrille Diabate via submission and beat Matt Hamill into retirement at UFC 133. His offensive and defensive wrestling continue to improve, and he’ll have a big advantage in the striking department. Matyushenko has been around for a long time, and holds a 26-5 overall record, and is 7-3 in the UFC. Since returning to the promotion in 2009, Matyushenko has gone 4-1, with the lone loss coming at the hands (and elbows) of current UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. He comes from a wrestling/grappling background, but showcased some largely unseen power at UFC 129, where he knocked out Jason Brilz in the first minute. That feat will be hard to duplicate against Gustafsson. His best and perhaps only chance in this one is to make this a grinder, wearing Gustafsson down with takedowns and ground n’ pound. He’s at a severe disadvantage on his feet to Gustafsson. That’s precisely why Gustafsson will win this fight. His wrestling is improving enough to keep him standing, and his striking is vastly superior. Matyushenko is a tough veteran, but the younger fighter will win out in this on. Gustafsson via TKO in the 2nd.
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks: Jon Fitch will try and make another climb to a title shot after a shoulder injury washed out much of his 2011 campaign. To do so he’ll have to get through a welterweight with one of the best wrestling pedigrees in MMA, Johny Hendricks. After getting a draw against B.J. Penn at UFC 127, Fitch injured his shoulder while training for the rematch and required surgery. His UFC record of 13-1-1 speaks for itself, as does his 23-3-1 overall record. He’s one of the top welterweights in the world, but hasn’t been able to reach the very top of the mountain due to the dominance of Georges St. Pierre. Hendricks won back-to-back national titles at Oklahoma State, but hasn’t been able to transition his wrestling prowess as quickly as some other former collegiate standouts. However, Hendricks is 6-1 in his UFC career, with his only loss coming to Rick Story. He’s beaten the likes of Charlie Brenneman and Mike Pierce, and should prove to be a tough challenge for Fitch. His striking has improved drastically since entering the UFC, and it may be that aspect of his game that will worry Fitch the most. Even though Hendricks has the better collegiate wrestling chops, Fitch has been much better at using wrestling in MMA. Fitch basically takes what Hendricks does, but does it even better. That’s not to say that Hendricks has no chance here. He continues to improve and there will likely come a time when the light clicks on for him and he becomes a force in the welterweight division. Is that time already here? Not likely, but not impossible. Shoulder injuries can be tricky, especially with fighters that rely on their wrestling, so it’s impossible to know if Fitch will come into this fight like his old self. I will guess that he will be close enough to it to be able to defeat Hendricks here, though it may not be without a few scares along the way. Fitch via decision.
Donald Cerrone vs. Nate Diaz: This is an important fight in the lightweight division, as both guys are fighting at the highest level in their careers. Cerrone has been dominant since coming over to the UFC, winning all four of his fights, and all have come in this calendar year. In his last fight, he blasted contender Dennis Siver at UFC 137. Overall, Cerrone is 17-3 in his MMA career. After he struggled at welterweight, Diaz decided to drop back down to lightweight before his UFC 135 fight against Takanori Gomi. Against Gomi, Diaz looked as good as he ever has, dominating the striking battle and eventually earning the submission victory. The winner of this fight will be in a good position to make a title run in 2012. Cerrone should have the slight advantage while this fight is standing. Diaz is probably the better technical offensive boxer, but his shoddy defense should leave at least a few openings for Cerrone to capitalize on. Cerrone’s striking is also more diverse and well-rounded than Diaz’s. On the ground, Diaz has the advantage, but Cerrone is very strong in this area as well. Diaz will need to be wary of leaving any openings for Cerrone there as well. This is a pretty even fight, and one that I’m really looking forward to watching. Both guys come forward at all times, and even their ground battles should be exciting. In the end, Cerrone’s superior and more diverse striking will earn him the victory in what will likely be the most exciting fight on the card. Cerrone via unanimous decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem: In the main event, two of the division’s biggest and strongest men will battle for a shot at Junior Dos Santos and his heavyweight title. Lesnar has been out of action since he was thrashed by Cain Velasquez in October 2010. A return of his diverticulitis thwarted his planned comeback fight against Junior Dos Santos, who went on to win the heavyweight title at UFC on Fox 1. He’s 5-2 in his short MMA career, with wins over Frank Mir, Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Shane Carwin. However, he was somewhat exposed in the win over Carwin, as it became apparent he didn’t react very well to being hit. He was able to hang in there against Carwin long enough to get a 2nd round submission, but wasn’t so fortunate in his fight against Velasquez. Will 14 months away from the cage help him solve that issue? Seems unlikely. Overeem will be making his UFC debut after a long career overseas, both in MMA and kickboxing. He is 35-11 in his MMA career that began with him at light heavyweight. His last fight was a somewhat lackluster victory over a very tentative Fabricio Werdum, where he defended his Strikeforce heavyweight championship. Looking at Overeem’s MMA record over the past few years, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a decent heavyweight on the list besides Werdum. It’s somewhat confusing how he’s gained the dominating reputation he has when he really hasn’t fought anyone of note besides Werdum since 2008.
There’s no doubt that Overeem will have a huge striking advantage over Lesnar in this one. Lesnar is still very stiff and mechanical in his striking, and as I mentioned earlier, doesn’t react very well to getting hit. Overeem hits like a train and is very technical to boot. He does leave some openings with his defense, but it will be hard for Lesnar to exploit those given his lack of striking experience. Where Lesnar has the huge advantage is in his wrestling. Overeem’s takedown defense is hit or miss, and his cardio leaves a lot to be desired. If Lesnar can score an early takedown, he can batter and wear down Overeem and perhaps make his striking a little less lethal in the later rounds (if it gets that far). Lesnar’s gas tank has always been somewhat of a question, and 14 months away from the cage will not help that either, but I still think he’ll have more in the tank than Overeem will.
While both have been dominating at times during their careers, both fighters also have their own fair share of weaknesses which make this fight a tough one to pick. It’s hard to gauge where Lesnar will be physically after the long layoff and the health problems, and with Overeem’s competition, it’s hard to judge just where he fits in the heavyweight picture. Either way, the winner of the fight will be on their way to a title shot, and I think that man will be Lesnar. His wrestling can neutralize and wear down Overeem if he can connect on an early takedown attempt. Wading through Overeem’s strikes will not be an easy feat, but if Overeem fights as tentative as he did against Werdum, I think Lesnar takes this fight easier than many think. If Overeem is more aggressive…well this will be a helluva fight! Lesnar via TKO in the 2nd.
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