UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida Preview and Predictions
The current “invincible” light heavyweight champion Jon Jones takes on the former “invincible” light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida in one of the more intriguing fights of the year. Additionally, both Nogueira brothers are featured on the main card. Rodrigo takes on Frank Mir in a rematch of their fight at UFC 92, while Rogerio takes on Tito Ortiz.
Chan Sung Jung vs. Mark Hominick: We last saw Hominick fighting Jose Aldo at UFC 129. After being basically dominated for four rounds, he came on very strong in the fifth, but lost the unanimous decision. Hominick is 20-9 in his career, with a 6-3 UFC/WEC record. Jung last fought back in March at UFC Fight Night 24 where he submitted Leonard Garcia in a rematch of their entertaining first encounter at WEC 48. The win was Jung’s first under the Zuffa banner. This should be an entertaining affair with Hominick’s kickboxing skills and Jung’s willingness and ability to take punches. Hominick should be able to control the majority of this fight and eventually finish Jung. Hominick via TKO in the 2nd.
Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole: Two guys that have rather quietly put together a combined 5-0 record in their UFC runs collide in this welterweight matchup. Ebersole is a veteran of over 60 MMA fights, and after finally making it to the UFC, has won his first two fights. In his debut, he was the heavy underdog to Chris Lytle at UFC 127. He controlled the entire fight en route to a unanimous decision victory. He followed that win up with a first round TKO victory over fellow veteran Dennis Hallman at UFC 133. Patrick made his UFC debut at UFC 115, beating Ricardo Funch via submission in the 2nd round. He’s won back-to-back unanimous decisions over James Wilks and Daniel Roberts since. Ebersole is an unorthodox, but not extremely skilled striker. He was able to keep Chris Lytle off balance for the majority of their fight. Patrick is decent on his feet, as well, and outstruck Roberts in their matchup at UFC 129. On the ground, both fighters are pretty solid. Ebersole has a wrestling background, while Patrick uses takedowns to set up submission attempts. Ebersole has fought the tougher competition and has been more impressive, so he gets the nod here in a relatively even fight. Ebersole via unanimous decision.
Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Ortiz reinvigorated his career with an upset win over Ryan Bader at 132. He took a fight with Rashad Evans on short notice at UFC 133, and was finished by Evans in the 2nd round. The loss dropped Ortiz’s record to 1-5-1 in his last seven fights. He’s talked about retirement quite a bit leading up to this fight, and if he loses here, it’s a strong possibility it will be the last time we see Ortiz competing in the Octagon. Nogueira had a long and successful career with PRIDE, and began his UFC career with back-to-back wins over Luiz Cane and Jason Brilz. However, he’s dropped his past two fights to Ryan Bader and Phil Davis. Ortiz will try to follow similar gameplans that Bader and Davis had, using their wrestling to control Nogueira. Nogueira will have the advantage over Ortiz when this fight is standing, as he has crisper boxing, though Ortiz may have a slight power advantage. On the ground, Nogueira is dangerous, but Ortiz still possesses very good ground n’ pound. It all comes down to how Nogueira defends Ortiz’s takedowns. If he can stop them, the fight is his. If he can’t, Ortiz could pound him out. I think Ortiz will execute enough takedowns and do enough damage with them to win the fight. Ortiz via decision.
Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: Mir dominated Nogueira in their first matchup at UFC 92. Nogueira looked old and slow, while Mir’s standup looked the best it ever had. It was revealed after the fight that Nogueira was battling a staph infection, but how much that played into the result is debateable. Mir has won his past two fights, knocking out Mirko Cro Cop in an awful fight, and dominating Roy Nelson in a decisionvictory at UFC 130. Nogueira fought in his home country of Brazil at UFC 134, and though he came into the fight looking in poor shape after a long layoff, he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round. That win hasn’t convinced me that Nogueira is back however. I think Mir was the better fighter before their fight at UFC 92 (and that thought earned me some money at the time), and I still think he is the better fighter, probably by a wider margin now. Mir via TKO in the 2nd.
Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: After beginning his MMA career 15-0 and winning the UFC’s light heavyweight championship by knocking out Rashad Evans at UFC 98, many thought that he would hold that title for a long, long time. However, in his first title defense against Shogun Rua, some weaknesses were exposed despite him winning a highly controversial decision. In the rematch, Rua wasted little time knocking out Machida, and destroyed the myth of the champ being unbeatable. Machida struggled to get on track in his next fight against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, and though he came on strong in the 3rd round, it was too late as he dropped a decision. However, Machida responded at UFC 129, knocking out Randy Couture with a devastating front kick. After injuries to Jones and Evans nixed their planned title fight, Machida was dubbed as the replacement. Jones has replaced Machida as the “invincible” champion. He’s basically run through all 15 opponents (though Matt Hamill technically has a “victory” due to a Jones DQ), and has only gone to a decision in two fights. After defeating Rua to win the title at UFC 128, Jones took on Jackson at UFC 135. Jones dominated the former champ for three rounds before finishing him in the fourth. His size/strength/athleticism combo is tough for anyone to deal with in the weight class. Machida’s unorthodox style could make this an interesting matchup however. Machida has solid takedown defense, and is very patient with his striking. He likes to counter, but Jones’ reach will make that difficult, as he can wade in with his strikes without ever really getting in striking range for Machida. We’ve never really seen Jones tested, hurt, or in any kind of trouble throughout his UFC career, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts if he is either taken down or hurt by Machida. Jones is the favorite for a reason, but this should be an interesting test. In the end, I think Jones will hurt Machida and eventually finish him off. Jones via TKO in the 3rd.
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