UFC 139 Preview and Predictions
Lost amidst all the buzz for the UFC on Fox event that took place last weekend, UFC 139 features one of the best and deepest cards of the year. In the main event, Dan Henderson makes his return to the UFC and takes on “Shogun” Rua, as they both try and get in position for a future light heavyweight title shot. The co-main event features Wanderlei Silva battling former Strikeforce fighter Cung Le. Also, Urijah Faber takes on Brian Bowles in a battle for a possible shot at Dominick Cruz’s bantamweight title.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury: After three straight losses to Jon Jones, Mark Coleman and Krzysztof Soszynski, many figured the end was near for Bonnar. Well, it still may be, but back-to-back wins over Soszynski (in the rematch) and Igor Pokrajac have kept his career alive. Best known for being a participant in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter as well as in the finals against Forrest Griffin, Bonnar is 7-6 overall in his UFC career. Kingsbury is also a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter, as he competed on the 8th season of the show. Kingsbury lost during the show but still earned a spot on the undercard of the Finale, where he lost to Tom Lawlor. Since then, Kingsbury has won four straight fights. Kingsbury is the stronger wrestler of the two, but Bonnar is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and does well to avoid bad positions on the ground. Bonnar holds an advantage in striking, though Kingsbury has more power and a strong clinch game. I’m banking on Bonnar keeping this fight standing and using his superior technical striking to control the fight. Bonnar via unanimous decision.
Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story: Kampmann should have won the decision in his last fight against Diego Sanchez, but ended up dropping the unanimous decision. The loss was Kampmann’s second straight, so he’s in need of a victory here. Prior to those losses, Kampmann was a fringe contender for the welterweight title. He was booked to fight Mike Swick at UFC 103 for a shot at the title, but when Swick went down with an injury, Kampmann accepted a fight against Paul Daley. Daley finished him in the first, and Kampmann has been trying to work his way back up since. Story dropped his first UFC fight to John Hathaway at UFC 99, but rattled off five straight wins to earn a shot at former welterweight title challenger Thiago Alves. Story came away from that fight with an upset victory, and seemed poised to make a run at a title shot. Story stepped in on short notice to take on Nate Marquardt in the main event of UFC on Versus 4, but Marquardt wasn’t approved to fight by the athletic commission. Story accepted a fight against Marquardt’s replacement, Charlie Brenneman, and lost via unanimous decision. This fight is important for Story to regain some of his lost momentum. Kampmann is a solid striker with an underrated ground game. He outstruck Sanchez for the majority of their fight, but doesn’t have huge power. Story is the stronger of the two fighters, and will have the wrestling advantage as well. Kampmann also showed impressive takedown defense in the Sanchez fight, and he’ll need to show more of the same here. Story isn’t afraid to mix it up on his feet either, making for a pretty intriguing fight. Tough fight to call, but I’ll go with Kampmann controlling the striking action and fending off enough takedowns to take the decision. Kampmann via decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles: This fight will go a long way to determining who will get the next shot at the bantamweight title. Faber fought the champion Dominick Cruz in his last fight at UFC 132, where he dropped a decision in a very close and exciting fight. Faber was the WEC’s most popular fighter and had an impressive run as the featherweight champion. After dropping his title to Mike Brown and losing to Brown again in the rematch, Faber made one last run at the title facing Jose Aldo at WEC 48. After Aldo dominated him over five rounds, Faber determined he needed to drop to bantamweight to get another shot at the gold. To earn that shot at the title, he’ll have to defeat another former champion in Brian Bowles. Bowles won the WEC bantamweight title over Miguel Torres at WEC 42, but dropped the belt to Cruz at WEC 47. Since that fight, Bowles has beaten Damacio Page and Takeya Mizugaki to get himself back into contention. This will be Bowles’ third fight in 2011 after only fighting once each in 2010 and 2009. Bowles is extremely powerful, although he has broken his right hand twice in recent fights. Faber’s main advantage in this fight is his wrestling. His speed and strength advantage should enable him to score a few takedowns and help him avoid big shots from Bowles. To win, Bowles will have to keep this fight standing and land some power shots. I’m not sure if he’ll be standing long enough to do that. Faber should be able to use his wrestling to control the fight, and is competent enough in his stand-up to land a few good shots there as well. Faber via unanimous decision.
Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva: It’s actually somewhat sad that this is what Wandy is reduced to. It’s not often that you find a guy who’s dropped six of his past eight fights along with having a chin that can’t seem to handle any even semi-powerful shots getting a slot in the co-main event, but here Silva is, and he actually has a pretty good shot of winning this fight against Cung Le. Le, the former Strikeforce sensation, is coming off a KO win over Scott Smith in a rematch of their enounter in 2009. He’s 7-1 in his MMA career, with none of his fights making it to a decision. I don’t think this fight will be his first to get there. Silva’s style hasn’t changed much since his PRIDE days. He still comes in with reckless abandon, firing shots at will. The difference is that his chin can no longer handle the return fire. Le’s strength lies more with his kicks than with his punches, which should help Silva stay upright. If Silva can close the distance and clinch with Le, he should be able to finish this fight. It’s hard to put a whole lot of faith into Silva at this point, but hopefully he gets a win here and decides to hang it up. Silva via 2nd round TKO.
Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: Two of the greats from the PRIDE era will squard off in this contest. Dan Henderson had a rebirth in Strikeforce in the light heavyweight divsion. After being dominated by Jake Shields in his debut with the promotion, Henderson moved back up to light heavyweight and proceeded to knock out Babalu Sobral to earn the title shot against Rafael Cavalcante. Henderson defeated Cavalcante via TKO in the 3rd. Henderson next fought Fedor Emelianenko in a bout contested at heavyweight, and won via first round TKO. After the win, Henderson set his sights to return to the UFC, and was hoping for an immediate title shot in either the middleweight or light heavyweight division. Instead, he is matched with former light heavyweight champion Shogun Rua. Rua lost the title to Jon Jones at UFC 128, but rebounded to blast Forrest Griffin at UFC 134. No immediate title shot will go to the winner of this fight, but whoever wins will be much closer to getting one.
Despite his wrestling credentials, Henderson tends to concentrate more on landing big shots on his feet then on landing takedowns. It’s been very successful for him in recent fights, but I think he does overlook his wrestling skills a little too often. Shogun is mainly a striker himself, but also is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and used that quite often earlier in his career. Despite their skills in other facets of the game, I expect that these two will keep the fight standing for the most part. Henderson is very one-dimensional, basically looking to land his right hand at any opportunity. Shogun is much more patient than he was earlier in his career, but has a much more well-rounded striking arsenal. Henderson’s one-track mind was OK when he was fighting Sobral and Cavalcante, but I can’t imagine it will be as successful against Shogun. I think Shogun’s best days are behind him, but still expect him to be able to avoid the Henderson right hand, and some significant shots of his own. If the fight drags on to the later rounds, Henderson may be the fresher of the two men, but by then it may be too late to win the decision. Shogun via unanimous decision.
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