UFC 137 Preview and Predictions
UFC 137 has had numerous changes to the top of the card. Originally, the card was slated to feature a welterweight title fight between Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz with a co-main event of Carlos Condit vs. B.J. Penn. After Diaz missed some media obligations to promote the fight, UFC president Dana White removed Diaz from the main event and bumped Condit up to the main event. A short time later, Diaz was re-inserted on the card, this time set to face Penn in the co-main event. Finally, a recent knee injury to St. Pierre scrapped his fight all together, and bumped Diaz and Penn into the main event. Even with all the changes, the card is relatively deep, and should provide a little clarity in the welterweight division.
Jeff Curran vs. Scott Jorgensen: Curran is making his return to the UFC after a 7 year absence. During that time, Curran fought for numerous regional organizations as well as the WEC, where he dropped four straight fights after winning his first. In fairness to Curran, those losses were to Urijah Faber, Mike Brown, Joseph Benavidez and Takeya Mizugaki, some of the best the featherweight class had to offer. Now, Curran will be fighting at Bantamweight against one of the best in the world in Jorgensen. Curran is 33-13 in his long career. Jorgensen is coming off of a KO victory over Ken Stone at The Ultimate Fighter 13 finale and is 8-3 in his WEC/UFC career. Jorgensen is the better wrestler in this contest and also has the edge standing. Curran still has some dangerous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jorgensen use his wrestling defensively to keep this fight standing a good deal. Jorgensen is the better fighter right now, and should get the victory. Jorgensen via unanimous decision.
Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop: One of the top featherweights in the world, Hatsu Hioki will be making his UFC debut against George Roop. Hioki has won his past four fights with his last loss coming at the hands of Michihiro Omigawa at Sengoku 11 in a split-decision. Roop has had an up-and-down career with the UFC and WEC. After beginning his UFC career at lightweight, Roop dropped to featherweight after losing to George Sotiropoulos at UFC 101. The drop did not pay off early, as Roop lost a unanimous decision to Eddie Wineland at WEC 46, and fought Leonard Garcia to a draw at WEC 47. A KO victory over Chan Sung Jung at WEC 51 gave Roop some momentum as the WEC folded into the UFC, however, a TKO loss to Mark Hominick at UFC Fight for the Troops 2 put him back in the losing column. Roop last fought at The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale, and beat Josh Grispi via 3rd round KO. The 6′1 Roop causes some matchup problems for many featherweights due to his reach advantage, and he’ll have the reach advantage in this fight too, though it won’t be as large as it is against some fighters in the division. However, if Hioki has his way, the reach advantage won’t mean much, as he wants to get this fight down to the ground early where he has the advantage. Look for him to do just that. Hioki via submission in the 2nd.
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Roy Nelson: Not much needs to be said about Cro Cop. One of the best heavyweights in the world at one time, he’s a shell of his former self. He’s hesitant to pull the trigger and looks increasingly scared to get hit. It looks like his heart is not in fighting anymore, but he continues to keep coming back. He’s dropped his past two fights to Frank Mir and Brendan Schaub, and has lost three of his last five overall. Nelson has taken his weight a little more seriously than he has previously, and has apparently dropped some pounds. How many exactly is tough to tell, as he showed up at today’s weigh-ins in a fat suit. He weighed in officially at 252, and considering he weighed in at 260 in his last fight, it’s an improvement. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Frank Mir at UFC 130 in a very lackluster fight. Nelson is not an elite heavyweight, but he’s solid enough to beat a reeling Cro Cop. There’s always the chance that Cro Cop finds some old magic and unleashes a head kick that KO’s Nelson, but the smart play is to bank on Nelson controlling the majority of the fight, both in the standup and certainly on the ground. Nelson via unanimous decision.
Matt Mitrione vs. Cheick Kongo: I won’t lie, Mitrione has progressed far quicker and much further than I ever thought possible after watching him on the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter. He’s 5-0 in his UFC (and MMA) career, and has won four of those fights via TKO or KO. His last fight was a KO victory over Christian Morecraft at UFC on Versus 4. Taking on a fighter of Kongo’s caliber is a logical step up for Mitrione, who would and has admitted that he still has a lot to learn. Kongo has been a lower to mid-level heavyweight during his UFC career, going 9-4-1. He last fought at UFC on Versus 4, coming back from nearly getting knocked out to KO Pat Barry in a wild first round. Kongo is primarily known for his kickboxing, but is a decent wrestler with some vicious ground n’ pound when given the opportunity. I expect this fight to mainly take place standing, with Kongo perhaps looking to take it to the ground if he’s feeling pressured. It’s a big step up in compeition for Mitrione, but a step that I think he can certainly take. His striking has become a pretty solid weapon for him, and he’ll need it to continue to be so against Kongo. One x-factor to consider: Kongo is 36 years old. He seems to be on the decline, but it’s questionable just how far he has slipped. I’m thinking far enough to get beaten by Mitrione. Mitrione via TKO.
B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz: Both fighters are looking to get in line for a title shot against Georges St. Pierre soon, and after the fireworks from today’s weigh ins, this fight looks pretty intriguing. Penn is coming off majority draw with Jon Fitch at UFC 127 after knocking out Matt Hughes in the first round of their fight at UFC 123. Back-to-back losses to Frankie Edgar convinced Penn that his best chance at another title shot is through the welterweight division, but it will likely take Penn at least one more win after this to earn another shot at GSP. Diaz was the Strikeforce welterweight champion before vacating that title to take the title shot against St. Pierre. Due to Diaz missing some media obligations, he was pulled from the main event before he was placed against Penn in the co-main event. Now, he finds himself in the main event again.
Both fighters have similar strengths. Both are black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (though Penn is the better grappler), and both are solid boxers. Diaz will have the reach advantage. However, he tends to leave himself wide open while striking which Penn can definitely take advantage of if this fight is taking place on the feet. One thing I can’t get over is the level of competition that Diaz has ran off his streak against. He’s won 10 fights in a row, but none of his victories were over a legitimate top 10 opponent. Thomas Denny, Frank Shamrock, Scott Smith, KJ Noons, Evangelista Santos, Paul Daley? All solid fighters, but none at the level of Penn. He’s looked good in the process of winning those fights, but I just can’t shake the fact that things would have been much different for him if he’d been in the UFC all this time. Penn can stand and bang with Diaz, and has the advantage on the ground. Diaz will likely have the cardio advantage if this fight goes the distance, but if Penn already has the first two rounds in the books, it may not matter. That’s what I’m expecting to happen. Penn via unanimous decision.
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