UFC 118: Penn vs. Edgar 2 Preview and Predictions

August 27, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

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Much of the hype for UFC 118 surrounds the co-main event between former UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight champion Randy Couture, and former boxing champion James “Lights Out” Toney. However, the card features a number one contenders fight in the lightweight division, and is headlined by the lightweight championship rematch between Frankie Edgar and B.J. Penn. Edgar won a controversial unanimous decision at UFC 112, and Penn is looking to get his title back.

Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda: Both guys are on this card unexpectedly. Maia was scheduled to headline the upcoming UFC Fight Night 22 card against Alan Belcher, but when Belcher had to pull out with serious vision problems, the UFC shifted Maia to the main card of UFC 118 against Miranda. Maia is coming off the infamous unanimous decision loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 112. Luckily for Maia, more has been made about Silva’s antics during the fight than the obvious holes in his own game. Overall, Maia is 12-2 in his MMA career, and is 6-2 in the UFC. He’s a tremendous grappler, but the striking and wrestling aspects of his game still need work for him to compete against the very best in the middleweight divison. Like Maia, Miranda is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but he is nowhere near as accomplished on the ground as Maia. He’s 12-1 in his MMA career, and his win over David Loiseau at UFC 115 evened his UFC record up at 1-1. Miranda’s Muay Thai skills are solid and he is a much bigger threat on his feet than Maia is. The ground game obviously favors Maia, but Maia would be favored there against any middleweight the UFC has. The question is: Can he avoid taking too much damage on his feet to get the fight to the ground? I’ve been leaning towards Miranda most of the week, but I’m making a last minute change and going with Maia. He may sustain some damage, but he’ll eventually get the fight to the ground. From there, he’ll find a way to finish. Maia via submission in the 2nd.

Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis: Davis has dropped two of his past three fights, but is coming off a TKO victory over Jonathan Goulet at UFC 113. After losing to Melvin Guillard at The Ultimate Fighter 2 finale, Davis ran off six straight wins, but that streak stopped with a unanimous decision loss to Mike Swick at UFC 85. Wins over Paul Kelly and Chris Lytle followed, but then Davis dropped consecutive fights to Ben Saunders and Dan Hardy. He’s looked a little slower in his past few contests, and at 37, age may be beginning to catch up to Davis. Coming from a boxing background, Davis worked hard to improve his wrestling, but he’ll be overmatched on the ground in this one. Diaz is a Cesar Gracie brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and very slick with his transitions much like his older brother Nick. Diaz also uses his height and reach pretty well in his striking game. He isn’t quite the boxer his brother is, but he’s pretty solid as well. He should be able to keep Davis at distance with his jab, and if Diaz gets the fight to the ground, he can end it there too. I’m expecting this one to be a mostly striking affair, with Diaz getting the better of it most of the way. Diaz via unanimous decision.

Gray Maynard vs. Kenny Florian: This one will determine who is first to challenge the winner of the main event between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar. Maynard could have been the next challenger for Penn before UFC 112, and given his victory over Edgar head-to-head, it would’ve been hard to argue if he had been given the title shot. However, his string of decision victories wasn’t enough to prove that he deserved the next shot, so the UFC gave Edgar the fight instead. Edgar obviously made the most of his opportunity, now it’s up to Maynard to beat Florian to prove that he does indeed deserve a title shot. That won’t be an easy task. Florian is one of the most solid all-around fighters in the UFC’s lightweight division, combining solid and still improving striking with a good Jiu Jitsu game and improved wrestling skills. He beat former PRIDE star Takinori Gomi at UFC Fight Night 21, controlling the majority of the fight with his striking (specifically his jab) before ending the fight with a rear naked choke in the 3rd. He’s had two shots at the title, falling short against Sean Sherk at UFC 64 and again against B.J. Penn at UFC 101. Maynard is 9-0-1 in his MMA career, and has won his past seven fights. However, the last six of those win were via decision, and two of those were split decisions. Maynard was a three-time All American wrestler at Michigan State, and has improved his striking a great deal since entering the UFC. However, I think if he tries to strike with Florian he could be in for a long night. That’s not to say he wouldn’t have a shot, but the odds would shift significantly to Florian in that type of battle. Maynard needs to utilize his wrestling to control this fight, but Florian’s takedown defense has improved a great deal in recent fights. Also, Maynard has never been known as a great top control guy, perhaps giving Florian some opportunities for submissions from his guard. I think Florian is just too good for Maynard in this one. Florian via unanimous decision.

James Toney vs. Randy Couture: This is the co-main event of the evening. Toney is a highly decorated boxer, and actually still holds a belt in the heavyweight division from one of the Alphabet soup organizations. However, at 42 years old and looking like he just swallowed a basketball, it’s clear that Toney is far from his athletic peak at this stage of his career. Which pretty much explains why he is taking this fight in the first place. Boxing organizations realize he is shot as a fighter, and the only place willing to pay him a decent amount of money to fight is MMA, and the UFC specifically. Couture is no spring chicken either at 47 years old. However, he remains in top physical shape, and is coming off back-to-back wins over Mark Coleman and Brandon Vera. There’s not much analyzing that needs to be done for this fight. Toney needs to land a KO shot within the first minute of the fight or it will be over. Couture needs to avoid that shot, and he’ll get the win. There is no other way possible of Toney winning this fight. The safe money says that Couture takes him down within the first 15 seconds of the fight and submits him in short order, but I have a feeling Randy may try to throw a few leg kicks and introduce Toney to the world of a sport where you have to worry about other things besides punches. Then he’ll dump him on his head and finish him. Couture via….. whatever he wants in the 1st.

B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: This is a rematch from their fight at UFC 112, where Edgar won a unaimous decision with some puzzling scores. I personally scored the fight 48-47 Penn, and the majority of MMA writers agreed with me. The judges disagreed, with one judge even scoring the fight 50-45 Edgar. Edgar controlled much of the pace of the first contest, but not much else. Penn landed the more significant strikes, but the group of judges preferred activity over accomplishment in the first fight. Even though I thought Penn won the first fight, he didn’t look himself. He was slower and visably gassed during the fight. I don’t think it was so much Edgar’s pace as it was perhaps a lack of focus during Penn’s training camp and the heat in the outdoor venue the event took place in. Regardless, I expect Penn to come into this fight more focused and in better shape. There really isn’t much else he needs to do to reverse the outcome besides make sure there are different (and better) judges. Edgar is a tough figher with a lot of heart. He also posseses good boxing skills, solid wrestling and good cardio. He’s a good fighter. Penn, even as he begins the downside of his career, is still a great fighter. Penn via TKO in the 3rd.

Make sure to follow me on Twitter (@tim_bock) for live tweeting during UFC 118!!!!!

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