UFC 117 Preview and Predictions

August 05, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

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The coverage for UFC 117 has been dominated by Chael Sonnen and his lunacy, but the rest of the card is pretty stacked as well. There are two #1 contender fights (Fitch vs. Alves and Nelson vs. Dos Santos) as well as a pretty intriguing welterweight fight between Matt Hughes and Ricardo Almeida.

Clay Guida vs. Rafael dos Anjos: Guida is continuing in his quest to stay relevant in the UFC’s welterweight division after back-to-back losses to Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian knocked him down the ladder. He rebounded with a submission win over Shannon Gugerty at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones, and now takes on dos Anjos, the winner of three consecutive fights. Dos Anjos began his UFC career with back-to-back losses to Jeremy Stephens and Tyson Griffin, but was able to avoid the dreaded “You’re cut” phone call from Joe Silva, and has since rattled off victories over Rob Emerson, Kyle Bradley, and most recently, Terry Etim at UFC 112. Guida is primarily a wrestler, as his stand-up really hasn’t improved much since he entered the UFC. Meanwhile, dos Anjos mixes in decent boxing skills with good leg kicks to go along with his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. I think that Guida is in for a rough night against dos Anjos. His striking is still so rudimentary that even an average striker like dos Anjos can pick him apart. He won’t find too much safe haven on the ground either, as dos Anjos grappling skills are good enough to make Guida rethink his strategy. In the end, dos Anjos will pepper Guida with leg kicks and will avoid damage on the ground to win. Dos Anjos via unanimous decision.

Matt Hughes vs. Ricardo Almeida: In an intriguing welterweight contest, a clearly declining Matt Hughes will take on Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt Ricardo Almeida. Hughes is coming off a less-than-impressive TKO win over Renzo Gracie at UFC 112. He looked slow and old in the first round, but was able to batter on an even slower and older opponent throughout the final two rounds before the fight was mercifully stopped. The win improved Hughes’ overall record to 44-7, but he’s just 3-3 in his past 6 fights. In contrast, Almeida has won his last three contests, winning unanimous decisions over Matt Horwich and Kendall Grove, and most recently defeating Matt Brown via submission at UFC 111. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Renzo Gracie, and an accomplished submission grappler. At this point in their careers, Almeida is probably more likely to take down Hughes than the other way around, which is a stunning statement to make about a fight involving Hughes. Hughes has never been more than an average striker, but the decline in the explosiveness and quickness in his shot was rather alarming against Gracie. Maybe the outdoor facility and the heat played a part in him looking so slow, or maybe…he’s just slowing down. Almeida is the much fresher of the two, and has the more well-rounded game at this point in their careers. Almeida via submission in the 2nd.

Junior Dos Santos vs. Roy Nelson: The winner of this fight will get the first crack at the winner of the Brock Lesnar/Cain Velasquez title fight at UFC 121. Dos Santos has made a quick rise through the UFC’s heavyweight division, debuting with a vicious knockout victory over Fedor-slayer Fabricio Werdum at UFC 90. Since then, the Brazilian has rattled off victories over Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Gilbert Yvel, and most recently, Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones. None of those fights reached the final bell. He’s 11-1 overall in his career. Nelson is the more experienced of the two with a career record of 15-4. He’s a former IFL heavyweight champion, and the winner of season 10 of The Ultimate Fighter. Nelson knocked out Brendan Schaub in under four minutes in the finale of the show, and followed that up with an opening-minute knockout of Struve at UFC Fight Night 21. He’s actually better known for his grappling ability, as he is a black belt under Renzo Gracie. He’s fought top competition before, losing to Ben Rothwell, Andrei Arlovski and Jeff Monson during his career. The ground game is a big question mark in this fight, as we really haven’t seen much of Dos Santos’ ground game. However, I don’t think it will matter. In my opinion, Dos Santos is a top-3 heavyweight in the UFC, and Nelson, well he just isn’t. He’s a threat to win this fight due to his grappling ability and his power, but I think the far more likely scenario is dos Santos battering him all night long. Nelson’s cardio has never been the greatest, and constant pressure and damage from dos Santos is going to zap whatever energy he’ll have in his takeddown attempts pretty quickly. Dos Santos will get the win and the shot at the belt. Dos Santos via unanimous decision.

Jon Fitch vs. Thiago Alves: If you think you’ve seen this fight before, you have. The two battled previously at UFC Fight Night 5 where Fitch won via TKO in the 2nd round. Since that fight, each fighter has only one loss. Fitch lost to Georges St. Pierre in his title shot at UFC 87, and Alves’ lost his shot at GSP at UFC 100. Dana White has recently said that the winner of this fight will get the next shot at the winner of GSP/Koscheck in December, though I think it’s still possible for Jake Shields to jump the winner with an impressive performance over Martin Kampmann at UFC 121. Fitch is 22-3 in his MMA career, and has used his wrestling to grind out decisions over opponents. He hasn’t finished a fighter since submitting Roan Carneiro back in 2007. His style isn’t flashy, but it works for him. Alves has won seven of his last eight fights since his loss to Fitch, and in contrast to Fitch’s grind-it-out style, Alves has finished five of those seven victims before the final bell. He has improved a great deal since that loss to Fitch. Alves’ takedown defense is very good (the St. Pierre fight excluded), and Fitch is nowhere near the MMA wrestler that GSP Is. The longer he can keep the fight standing, the better it is for Alves. Fitch will use his size advantage to try and wear Alves down against the cage and with takedown attempts, but I think Alves is going to do everything he can to avoid those situations. Alves hasn’t fought in over a year, which may make his conditioning and ring rust a factor, but I think he has the advantage in this fight.Fitch just isn’t explosive enough to take Alves down at will, and he’s not good enough standing to avoid damage for the entire fight. Expect Alves to fend off the majority of Fitch’s takedown attempts and to win the standing battle en route to a victory. Alves via unanimous decision.

Anderson Silva vs. Chael Sonnen: Sonnen’s incessant trash talk has turned this otherwise lopsided looking title fight into an intriguing contest, but he has made himself look like an idiot more than anything else. Silva is the most dominant champion in UFC history, rattling off 6 consecutive title defenses, and 11 straight wins in the UFC overall. He really hasn’t been tested in any of those contests, besides perhaps the first round of his fight with Dan Henderson at UFC 83 where he subsequently submited Henderson in the 2nd. His striking, agility and footwork are basically unrivaled in MMA, and he is a pretty talented grappler as well. Sonnen is coming off consecutive dominant performances over Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt, and is 3-1 in the UFC overall with a quick submission loss to Demian Maia being the only blemish on his record. He’s lost 10 times in his MMA career, and seven of those have come via submission. Sonnen is a very talented wrestler, with a Greco-Roman background. He used those wrestling skills to physically manhandle Okami and Marquardt, but neither of those guys are Silva’s caliber standing or on the ground. Silva has been taken down a few times in the UFC, but no opponent has really been able to accomplish much off of those takedowns. Henderson was able to control him for much of the round, but really didn’t do much damage.

I’m expecting Sonnen to be able to take Silva down at some point in the fight, but I’m not sure how much damage he can really do there given Silva’s submission skills and the obvious holes in Sonnen’s submission defense game. Sonnen’s only real shot is to take down Silva each round and control him throughout each round, but the likelyhood of him doing that is…well…just not very likely. Remember, each round begins with the fighters standing, and that’s where Sonnen will run into major problems. I, for one, am looking forward to this fight being over with so I can stop listening to Sonnen’s lunatic ramblings, and I think Silva will oblige me by making quick work of the Oregonian. Sonnen may be able to last a round or so, but eventually the vastly superior skill set of Silva will win out. Silva via TKO in the 2nd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Dustin Hazelett over Rick Story via 2nd round submission

Phil Davis over Rodney Wallace via 1st round TKO

Tim Boetsch over Todd Brown via unanimous decision

Johny Hendricks over Charlie Brenneman via 2nd round TKO

Stefan Struve over Christian Morecraft via 1st round TKO

Ben Saunders over Dennis Hallman via 2nd round TKO

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