UFC 116 Preview and Predictions

July 02, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

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UFC 116 features one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of all-time as Brock Lesnar takes on Shane Carwin for the heavyweight title. The undercard has some significant fights as well.

Brock Lesnar:

32 years old

6′3, 265lbs

1999 national runner-up in heavyweight division while wrestling for University of Minnesota

2000 National Division 1 heavyweight champion

UFC Career:

Loss vs. Frank Mir at UFC 81 (1st round submission)

Win vs. Heath Herring at UFC 87 (Unanimous decision)

Win vs. Randy Couture at UFC 91 to win UFC heavyweight championship (TKO round 2)

Win vs. Frank Mir at UFC 100 to retain UFC heavyweight championship (TKO round 2)

Shane Carwin:

35 years old

6′2, 265 lbs

1996 Division II runner-up in heavyweight division while at Western State College in Colorado

1997 Division II runner-up

1999 Division II national champion

UFC Career:

Win vs. Christian Wellisch at UFC 84 (1st round KO)

Win vs. Neil Wain at UFC 89 (1st round TKO)

Win vs. Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96 (1st round KO)

Win vs. Frank Mir at UFC 111 to win UFC interim heavyweight title (1st round KO)

Wrestling: There is a difference in wrestling between the two. It’s like the difference between an All-American quarterback at USC vs. an All-American quarterback at Western Illinois. In terms of what we’ve seen from the two in the wrestling department in the Octagon, Lesnar has been more effective. He took down Frank Mir at will twice, Heath Herring once, and outwrestled Randy Couture as well. Carwin got taken down by Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96, and had difficulty taking down Neil Wain at UFC 89. He did well to get himself back to his feet against Gonzaga, but to be taken down by a guy who is more noted for his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu then his wrestling, is a bit of a warning sign. If this was a pure wrestling contest, Lesnar would have the advantage hands-down.

Striking: Both have immense knockout power. Lesnar turned Frank Mir and Heath Herring’s faces into lunchmeat, and knocked out Randy Couture with what amounted to a glancing right hook. Carwin knocked Gonzaga cold with a right hook that he barely even stepped into, and did the same to Mir with short, vicious uppercuts. We’ve seen Carwin take a pretty solid punch from Gonzaga and shake it off, while Brock’s chin hasn’t really been tested that much. He was staggered slightly by Couture, and may have been by a knee from Mir in the 2nd fight, but was able to gain a takedown off of that mistake from Mir. These are both huge guys who hit hard, but I think Carwin may be a tad more polished as a striker. If this was a pure striking battle, I would give a slight edge to Carwin.

X-Factors:

Conditioning: Many things at play here. Carwin has never been out of the 1st round, so we don’t know how his cardio will last. Lesnar has been into the 2nd round 3 times, and went 3 rounds against Heath Herring. However, Carwin does train at altitude in Colorado, and his trainers insist he can go 5 rounds no problem.

Could Lesnar’s long layoff (Just 8 days short of an entire year) play a role here? Word from Randy Couture who went up to Minnesota to train with Lesnar a couple weeks ago is that Brock is slimmer and has changed his diet because of the illness he suffered. Couture claims that Lesnar is currently at 280lbs, which is about 20 lbs under what he was fighting at before he got sick. He won’t have to cut as much weight to get to the 265 lb limit as he normally does, but the size advantage he has over just about every other heavyweight is negated a little in this one. Tonight, Carwin tweeted that he is currently 277 lbs. Brock still is a bigger overall guy, but it won’t be a huge difference come fight night.

Carwin’s full-time job. I know Carwin hates when people bring it up, but the fact of the matter is that MMA is Carwin’s 2nd job. He’s a full-time engineer in Colorado, and while I don’t doubt that he trains extremely hard, there’s something to be said both mentally and physically when all you have to do is train for a fight. Brock can do that, Carwin can’t. Is it a huge advantage for Lesnar? No. Is it worth mentioning? Yes.

Breakdown: They key to this one is going to be the wrestling in my opinion. Lesnar knows that Carwin has the power to lay him out, so he’ll try to utilize his superior wrestling and strength to get this one to the ground. We haven’t seen much of Carwin off his back, but I don’t imagine he’s too prepared to sweep or change positions on Lesnar. If Mir couldn’t do anything off his back with all of his BJJ skills, I don’t think Carwin can do much either, even though he’s bigger than Mir. Carwin’s clinch game was where he ended Mir’s night, so Lesnar has to be aware of that and must avoid being pushed against the cage where Carwin can land those short uppercuts. I suspect that Randy Couture, the king of dirty boxing and clinching, showed Lesnar some things he’ll be able to use against Carwin to limit the damage. Overall, Lesnar is the better wrestler and the better athlete. He’s just so explosive and strong. His athleticism gets overlooked because of his size, but he’s one of the best athletes in the world, I really believe that. I’d feel much more confident picking him before the illness and the long layoff, but I still think he has the advantage in this one. Lesnar via TKO in the 2nd.

Co-Main event: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

Leben is a late replacement for Wanderlei Silva, who had to withdraw with broken ribs. Leben fought on June 19th at the Ultimate Fighter finale, and beat Aaron Simpson via 2nd round TKO. Leben is 10-5 in his UFC career, with wins over Patrick Cote, Jorge Santiago and Simpson, and losses to Anderson Silva, Michael Bisping, Jason MacDonald and Jake Rosholt amongst others.

Akiyama will be in his 2nd fight for the UFC after winning via split-decision over Alan Belcher at UFC 100. Some publications have him as a top 10 middleweight. He’s a black belt in Judo, and his striking has improved greatly in recent years. He’s a huge star in Japan and is 13-1 overall in his career. He’s got a good top game to go along with his Judo skills and his still developing striking. Akiyama originally had some hesitation in agreeing to fight Leben, thinking it was a step downward in competition, but he eventually accepted the fight.

Breakdown: The majority of this fight will most likely take place standing. Akiyama’s Judo skills are tremendous, but he also doesn’t mind to stand and bang. Leben will have no problem with that. He’s mainly a sprawl and brawl fighter. His takedown defense is pretty good, though is overall grappling game is still underwhelming, and he pretty much puts everything he has into every punch. My problem with Leben is that everytime he’s stepped up to face a top-level guy, he’s fallen short. He’s too one-dimensional. He always has the ”puncher’s chance,” but should be outclassed by Akiyama in this one, especially on such short notice. Akiyama via unanimous decision.

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown-

This fight is a rematch from 2007, where Lytle defeated Brown with a guillotine in the 2nd round in the “Ultimate Fight League” in Indiana.

Lytle has had 50 pro fights, and is 28-17-5 in his career. He comes from a boxing background, but is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, something that he doesn’t utilize very frequently. He’s won his last two fights, over Brian Foster at UFC 110 via 1st round submission, and over Kevin Burns via unanimous decision at the Ultimate Finale 9.

Brown’s record doesn’t look especially pretty at 11-8, but prior to a 2nd round submission loss to Ricardo Almeida at UFC 111, he had won three consecutive fights in the UFC. He’s still a work in progress on the ground, and even though his striking is often sloppy, he does possess decent power.

Breakdown: Lytle should have the advantage in this one. He’s a better technical striker, and he doesn’t have to worry about Brown really trying to take him down too often. Lytle’s often overlooked ground skills could come into play as well. He has many more ways to win this fight then Brown does. Lytle via TKO in the 2nd.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar:

This is a rematch from their fight at UFC 110, where Soszynski picked up the victory via 3rd round TKO after the fight was stopped due to a cut on Bonnar’s head. The cut was caused by an accidental headbutt by Soszynski. Both fighters requested the rematch.

Bonnar made a name for himself in the first season of the Ultimate Fighter and especially with his fight with Forrest Griffin in the Finale of the season. Dana White has said that Bonnar will be with the companyfor life, though eventually I think he’s going to need to put some victories together. Including the loss to Soszynski, Bonnar has lost 3 consecutive contests, including an embarassing loss to Mark Coleman at UFC 100. He’s got pretty good BJJ (officially a purple belt under Carlson Gracie, but believed to be brown or black belt level) and also a former Golden Gloves boxer in Chicago.

Soszynski appeared on the 8th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Since beginning his UFC career, Soszynski has gone 4-1, with the only loss coming to Brandon Vera at UFC 102. He’s a pretty well rounded fighter, and actually has more pro fights than Bonnar. He’s a solid striker and is proficient in submissions as well.

Breakdown: In the first fight, Soszynski was getting the better of the action standing, so I expect him to keep the same game plan. Bonnar really needs this win, but since the first fight was so recent, I don’t really see how he could have improved the things he needed to improve on to get the better of Soszynki in a rematch. His best chance is to probably get this fight to the ground, but in the end, I think Soszynski gets the unanimous decision win he was heading towards before the cut stopped the first fight.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. George Sotiropolous: This is a fight that could determine the next challenger to the winner of the Frankie Edgar/B.J. Penn rematch.

Sotiropolous has been extremely impressive, going 5-0 since appearing on the 6th season of the Ultimate Fighter. Most recently, Sotiropolous soundly beat former title challenger Joe Stevenson via unanimous decision at UFC 110. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and his BJJ against Stevenson (also a black belt) was absolutely sick. He controlled that entire fight. His standup game is improving as well.

Pellegrino has won his past four UFC fights, most recently beating Fabricio Camoes via submission at UFC 111. That was a very close fight before Pellegrino locked in the choke at the end of the 2nd round. Pellegrino is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and has recently said he’s not afraid of Sotiropolous’ ground game. He comes from a wrestling background.

Breakdown: Sotiropolous is the narrow favorite on the betting lines. He’ll have the reach advantage come fight night, and in my opinion, has better BJJ skills, at least in the way that he uses them in MMA. Pellegrino has had a career resurgence in the past year and a half, but Sotiropolous’ absolutely dominating performance over Joe Stevenson has me convinced. Sotiropolous via submission in the 2nd.

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