UFC 114:Rampage vs. Evans Preview and Predictions

May 28, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

ufc114_evansvsjackson

The main event of UFC 114, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans, has been in the works for quite awhile. Just as the rivalry between the two reached a fever pitch, the fight was put on hold as Jackson pursued a role in the upcoming “A-Team” movie. All the trash talking will finally come to an end (or will at least pause) on Saturday as the two former light heavyweight champions will finally square off.

Diego Sanchez vs. John Hathaway: Sanchez will make his return to the UFC’s welterweight divison after losing a lightweight title fight against B.J. Penn at UFC 107. Prior to the loss against Penn, Sanchez had reeled off four consecutive wins, including two wins in the welterweight class. He first contemplated the move to lightweight after consecutive losses to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. In his career, Sanchez is 23-3, with an impressive 10-3 record in the UFC. He mixes decent striking with solid wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills as well as a motor that is constantly in high gear. Hathaway will be fighting in the United States for the first time in his professional career. He owns a 3-0 UFC record with wins over Thomas Egan, Rick Story and Paul Taylor, all at events that took place in Europe. Needless to say, he’s making a big jump up in competition in this one. That’s not to say that he isn’t a capable opponent. He’s very effective from top position, though it’s going to be difficult for him to get that position on Sanchez, who is a better wrestler and is good in scrambles. Hathaway’s striking game doesn’t compare with Sanchez’s either. He’s a tough fighter and can probably hang in for awhile with Sanchez, but I think his chances of winning this fight are slim to none. Hathaway is only 22 and will continue to improve, but he’s not at Sanchez’s level yet. Sanchez via submission in the 2nd.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz: Nogueira was originally scheduled to take on Forrest Griffin in the co-headlining bout, but a shoulder injury forced Griffin to pull out of the contest. Brilz took the fight on short notice. Nogueira made his UFC debut at UFC 106, impressively beating Luis Cane in the 1st round via TKO. He was scheduled to return against Brandon Vera at UFC 109, but a broken ankle forced him off that card. Nogueira is 18-3 in his MMA career, with victories over Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson, Sakuraba, and Cane among others. He’s similar to his heavyweight twin brother Antonio Rodrigo in the fact that they are both black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and also accomplished boxers. His boxing allowed him to completely pick apart Cane before he finished him off in their contest. He is a serious threat to make a run in the UFC’s light heavweight divsion. Brilz is an impressive 18-2 in his MMA career, though he hasn’t fought anyone anywhere near the class of Nogueira. He comes from a wrestling background, though the rest of his game needs a lot of work. I don’t see this fight lasting very long. Nogueira will outclass him in every aspect. Brilz should be commended for taking this fight on short notice against a top-tier light heavyweight, but this one could end violently. Nogueira via TKO in the 1st.

Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow: Duffee makes his return to the Octagon following his impressive debut at UFC 102, where he knocked out Tim Hague in seven seconds. He’s 6-0 in his career, with all 6 wins coming via stoppage. He’s an extremely powerful heavyweight with improving all-around skills. He doesn’t really have much of a wrestling background, but has made a name for himself with his pure strength and athleticism. Russow bounced around regional promotions in the Chicago area, and is also a Chicago police officer. He’s 12-1 in his MMA career, and won his UFC debut over Justin McCully at UFC 102. He mainly utilizes his wrestling skills, though he’s also won eight of his fights via submission. The level of competition of the opponents he’s submitted is a large factor however. I think he’s going to have big problems if he tries to stand and strike with Duffee, and I’m not convinced that Russow’s wrestling background is strong enough for him to control Duffee that way either. Russow is a tough opponent, but even though I think the Duffee hype-machine is way out of control, Duffee should find this a winnable fight. Duffee via TKO in the 2nd.

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Miller: This bout got bounced up to co-main event status due to the injury to Forrest Griffin forced him out of the contest with Nogueira. Bisping has dropped two of his last three fights, with a victory over Denis Kang sandwiched between the KO loss to Dan Henderson, and a unanimous decision loss to Wanderlei Silva at UFC 110. Overall, Bisping is 18-3 in his MMA career, and boasts a strong 8-3 UFC record. He’s mainly known for his striking. Although not exactly powerful, his style allows him to outpoint most of his opponents. Additionally, Bisping has shown much better grappling skills in recent fights. He may not be a danger to submit anyone off his back, but he’s learned how to use his Brazlilian Jiu Jitsu to keep himself out of danger and more importantly, get himself in better position to get the fight back standing. Miller has dropped his past two fights in the UFC. He lost to Chael Sonnen at UFC 98 and Demian Maia at UFC 109, both via unanimous decision. Bisping doesn’t have Sonnen’s wrestling skills or Maia’s BJJ skills, but he does possess enough of an all-around game to give Miller problems. I think Miller will get outclassed on his feet, and though he is a better grappler than Bisping, he’s not quite good enough there to submit Bisping. Miller’s a tough competitor and has enough skill to pose a threat, but in the end I think Bisping will get the nod. Bisping via unanimous decision.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans: As one of the most hyped “grudge matches” in UFC history, this fight has a lot of buzz going for it right now. Jackson is coming off filming for the “A-Team” movie, which has had some question his training and mindset for this fight. He was last seen in the Octagon at UFC 96, where he defeated Evans’ teammate Keith Jardine. Jackson has fought some of the best light heavyweights in MMA, defeating the likes of Chuck Liddell (twice), Ricardo Arona, Wanderlei Silva, and Dan Henderson in his career. He posseses vicious knockout power to go along with decent boxing technique and underrated takedown defense. He claims to be in great shape and looks to be focused, but the questions about his motivation and training will persist until the fight.

Evans recovered from the KO loss to Lyoto Machida to defeat Thiago Silva via unanimous decision at UFC 108. In that fight, he mainly utilized his wrestling background, but was staggered and nearly finished by Silva in the 3rd round. It was later revealed that Silva was battling an injury going into the fight, so it’s possible a healthy Silva could have finished Evans in the third round. Evans is 14-1-1 in his MMA career and held the light heavyweight championship after beating Forrest Griffin at UFC 92 before losing the belt to Machida at UFC 98. I’ve always thought that there were many aspects of Evans’ game that are overrated. He is a solid wrestler and comes from a collegiate wrestling background, but he is far from elite in that department. His striking is often overrated because of his vicious knockout of Chuck Liddell at UFC 88, but he was getting beaten on his feet by Griffin before catching a leg kick and dropping him and was blown out by Machida in their title fight. Being outstruck by Machida is nothing to be ashamed of, but Evans barely even landed a punch in that fight. His footwork and head movement are often praised, but in reality, it’s mostly useless and inefficient movement. His footwork often leaves him flat footed and unable to counter skilled strikers. Those flawed aspects of his game could prove fatal against Jackson, who besides being very powerful, is also a pretty skilled boxer. Jackson’s defensive wrestling is very solid, and I don’t think Rashad will have much success in that department either. As you can tell, I’m having a hard time finding a way that Evans can win this fight. I think all signs point to a dominating performance from Jackson, and most likely a victory via stoppage. Evans’ chin is closer to glass than it is granite, and I expect it to be tested in this one. All this hype and trash talking will come to a crashing halt with one hook from Rampage. Jackson via KO in the 2nd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Dong Hyun Kim over Amir Sadollah via unanimous decision

Efrain Escudero over Dan Lauzon via TKO in the 2nd

Melvin Guillard over Waylon Lowe via TKO in the 1st

Luis Cane over Cyrille Diabate via TKO in the 2nd

Aaron Riley over Joe Brammer via unanimous decision

Ryan Jensen over Jesse Forbes via submission in the 1st

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