UFC 112 Preview and Predictions

April 10, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

UFC-112-Invincible

UFC 112: Invincible gets its title because it features two of the greatest and most dominant champions in UFC history. Both lightweight champion B.J. Penn and middleweight champion Anderson Silva will enter the Octagon as prohibitive favorites to continue their reign atop their respective divisions. The card is also significant because it takes place in Abu Dhabi, marking the company’s first foray into the Middle East.

Kendall Grove vs. Mark Munoz: Grove was struggling with the takedowns and striking of Jake Rosholt at UFC 106 before he caught Rosholt in a triangle choke and finished him late in the first round. The win improved Grove’s UFC record to 6-3 and his overall record to 11-6. At 6′6, Grove usually has a significant reach advantage over most of his opponents, but never has really used it to his advantage as much as he should. He also sports a pretty weak chin, making him a little hesitant to get into heavy exchanges. However, Grove has established himself as a middle-tier UFC middleweight who is well-rounded enough to be competitive in most fights. Munoz was a highly decorated wrestler coming out of Oklahoma State, where he won the 2001 national championship. He’s 7-1 in his MMA career and is 2-1 in the UFC with wins coming over Ryan Jensen and Nick Catone. He lost his UFC debut to Mark Hamill after he was knocked out by a vicious head kick. Munoz trains at Black House with the Nogueira brothers and other top UFC stars, so he’s definitely getting the training he’ll need to compete at the highest level. I don’t think his striking is good enough to win exchanges over Grove, though he does possess enough power to drop Grove with a good shot. Munoz could probably take down Grove at will, but as he showed against Rosholt, Grove is dangerous off his back as well. It’s a tough fight to pick because Munoz definitely has the ability to take Grove down repeatedly and grind out a decision. However, I’m following my gut and picking Grove. Grove has the ability to win the striking battle and can at least threaten off the floor. Grove via TKO in the 2nd.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Terry Etim: After starting his UFC career with two straight defeats, dos Anjos has rebounded to win his past two fights over Kyle Bradley and Rob Emerson. He’s 12-4 in his MMA career. Dos Anjos has shown good wrestling ability and also solid striking, especially in the win over Emerson. Etim is on an impressive four-fight winning streak, most recently beating Shannon Gugerty at UFC 105 via submission. Etim has shown both good striking as well as a good submissions in racking up a 14-2 career record. This is a pretty evenly matched fight, though I think Etim’s striking ability will win out. Etim via unanimous decision.

Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie: At UFC 60, Matt Hughes took on UFC legend Royce Gracie in a fight everyone knew wouldn’t be competitive. Hughes dispatched of Gracie in the first round. Now, almost four years later, Hughes will take on another Gracie, this time Royce’s cousin Renzo. Hughes has clearly lost a step from when he was the dominant welterweight champion of the world. Between November, 2001- September, 2006, Hughes won the welterweight title twice, defended the belt seven times and went 12-1 in the Octagon with the lone loss coming to B.J. Penn. After losing his title to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 65, Hughes has gone 2-2, with wins over Chris Lytle and Matt Serra and losses to GSP and Thiago Alves. He’s no longer at the top of the welterweight division, but he still has the ability to beat many other welterweights in the UFC. Gracie is 43 years old and hasn’t fought a MMA fight in over three years. Overall, Gracie is 13-6 in his MMA career, with wins over Frank Shamrock, Carlos Newton, and Pat Miletech. As with all the Gracie’s, Renzo’s main strength is his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but the rest of his game has numerous holes. His striking and takedown defense aren’t good enough to beat top level athletes in the UFC today. I don’t think Hughes will really have much of a problem in this one unless he completely overlooked this fight. He should be able to takedown Gracie at will, and will actually probably have the advantage in the sriking department too. I don’t think Gracie will pose much of a threat to Hughes off his back either. Hughes will move to 2-0 over the Gracie clan after this one. Hughes via TKO in the 2nd.

B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: Penn is coming very close to cleaning out the entire lightweight division. After winning the title over Joe Stevenson at UFC 80, Penn has dominated Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Edgar may be the last opponent for Penn in the lightweight division for awhile, as there has been much discussion of him moving up to welterweight after this fight. In his career, Penn is 15-5, with wins over Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver, Matt Serra and Takanori Gomi to go along with his recent victims. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, one of the best technical strikers in the division and boasts some of the best takedown defense in all of MMA. Meanwhile, Edgar is coming into this fight as a huge underdog. He won the title shot after getting three consecutive victories over Matt Veach, Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca, but lost to fellow top contender Gray Maynard via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 13. He’s a smaller lightweight, but comes from a wrestling background and is a solid technical striker. However, he doesn’t really bring any skills to the table that are better than Penn’s. Penn is a better striker and hits harder, he’s better off the floor, and his takedown defense is basically unbreakable. I can see Edgar hanging in this fight for awhile because he’s a pretty tough guy, but he doesn’t pose a serious threat to Penn. Penn via TKO in the 3rd.

Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia: The next title defense for Silva was scheduled to be against Vitor Belfort, but a shoulder injury has now shelved Belfort for awhile. Maia got the call to step in against Silva. Silva is perhaps the most dominant champion in UFC history. Since taking the middleweight title from Rich Franklin at UFC 64, Silva has defended the title five times, won another fight in a catchweight contest, and defeated two fighters (including a former champion) in the light heavyweight divsion. His overall record is 25-4. Silva’s striking and movement make other fighters look just plain silly, and he’s no slouch in the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu department either. Maia is one of the best grapplers in the division and is 12-1 in his MMA career. His lone loss came to Nate Marquardt at UFC 102, where he was knocked out in the first 30 seconds of the contest. Maia rebounded to defeat Dan Miller at UFC 109 via unanimous decision. Despite efforts to improve his striking, it remains Maia’s main weakness. That’s something you don’t want to have as a glaring weakness going into a fight with Silva. If Maia can somehow get the fight to the ground, especially if he is in top position, he has a chance to win. However, if the fight stays standing for any length of time, Silva will pick him apart. I’m banking on the latter. Silva via TKO in the 2nd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Phil Davis over Alexander Gustafsson via unanimous decision

Paul Taylor over John Gunderson via TKO in the 2nd

Rick Story over Nick Osipczak via unanimous decision

Brad Blackburn over DeMarques Johnson via TKO in the 1st

Matt Veach over Paul Kelly via unanimous decision

Jon Madsen over Mostapha Al Turk via TKO in the 2nd

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