UFC 111 Preview and Predictions

March 27, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

hardygsp

I’ve been looking forward to UFC 111 for quite some time. The card suffered a blow when Thiago Alves was told he couldn’t fight Jon Fitch due to an irregularity in a pre-fight CAT scan. That took one of the best fights of the night off the card, but there’s still plenty of good ones left.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes: This fight was promoted from the prelims to the main card when Alves had to pull out and Ben Saunders stepped up to face Fitch. That left the main card one fight short, and Pellegrino and Camoes got the call. Pellegrino is 14-4 in his MMA career, and is 6-3 in the UFC. He’s won his past three fights over Thiago Tavares, Rob Emerson and Josh Neer and will try to make it four in a row with a win over Camoes. He combines solid wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though his striking remains a weakness. Camoes made his UFC debut at UFC 106, fighting Caol Uno to a draw. Camoes would have probably won the fight, but a point was deducted for an illegal upkick, thereby creating the draw. His overall MMA record stands at 10-4. His striking is probably better than Pellegrino’s, though not by a great margin. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and did pretty well fighting off takedowns from Uno, though Pellegrino is better at that facet than Uno. Pellegrino has established himself as a solid mid-tier lightweight, and I expect him to come out on top in this one. Pellegrino via unanimous decision.

Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek: Miller is one of the more underrated lightweights in the world. He brings a 16-2 MMA record to the cage tonight and also boasts a 5-1 UFC record. Much like his brother Dan, Jim is a solid all-around fighter. His striking is good enough to get him by, and his wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu are both above average weapons in his game. His only loss in the UFC was to Gray Maynard. Bocek is a respectable 4-2 inside the Octagon, and his main weapon is his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game. The Canadian is a black belt, but his other skills aren’t anywhere good enough to beat a guy like Miller. That being said, Bocek has won three fights in a row, but is making a big jump up in competetion in this one. Miller has the edge in wrestling and striking, and I think his BJJ game is good enough to keep himself out of danger on the ground, especially when he’s in top control. This fight could certainly go the distance, but I’m expecting Miller to finish it before it goes to the cards. Miller by TKO in the 2nd.

Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders: Saunders begged for this fight after Thiago Alves had to pull out due to an irregularity in a pre-fight CAT scan. Fitch agreed to the contest and the UFC made it happen. Kudos to both guys for being willing to do this. Saunders was originally slated to go against Jake Ellenberger on the main card, so he’s in shape and ready to go. For him, it’s a great opportunity. A win over Fitch puts the division on notice, while a loss to Fitch won’t damage his prospects any. A win-win situation for Saunders if there ever was one. In addition, he had been preparing for Ellenberger, who is somewhat of a similar fighter to Fitch in terms of wrestling ability and fight styles. Saunders is 8-1 in his MMA career, and is an impressive 4-1 in his UFC career. His only loss was to Fitch’s teammate Mike Swick at UFC 99. He’s a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but mainly relies on his striking ability. His height and reach make things difficult for his opponents, while his Muay Thai weapons were especially evident in his last fight, a TKO win over Marcus Davis at UFC 106. Fitch wants a rematch with Georges St. Pierre, but was never really competitve in their UFC 87 title contest. Since that fight, Fitch has gone 3-0 with wins over Akihiro Gono, Paulo Thiago and Mike Pierce. Those are three solid wins, but none of them really screamed “This guy needs another title shot!” All three fights went to decision, with Fitch getting unanimous nods in each case. Fitch hasn’t finished a fight since submitting Roan Carneiro at UFC Fight Night 10 back in the middle of 2007. He’d like to finish off Saunders in this contest, but it won’t be easy. Fitch generally controls his opponents with his strong wrestling and top control game. His striking isn’t great, but he makes up for it with his toughness and ability to get the fight to the ground when he wants to. That will be especially important in this contest. Saunders will have the advantage on his feet, but his wrestling defense isn’t great and he offers very little offense of his back, as evidenced in his fight against Swick. I think Saunders will have his moments in this one, but expect Fitch to dump him on his back every chance he gets. I don’t expect Fitch to do anything differently than he normally does, which is play it safe and grind out a decision win. Fitch via unanimous decision.

Shane Carwin vs. Frank Mir: This heavyweight fight is for the interim heavyweight championship and a shot at UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. Mir has made his desire to face Lesnar a third time no secret, but he’ll have to go through Carwin to get there. Carwin was in line to face Lesnar at UFC 106, but was denied the opportunity after Lesnar became ill and had to be hospitalized. Now, to get his title shot back, he’ll have to defeat Mir. Carwin is an impressive 11-0 in his MMA career, and has won his first three fights inside the Octagon. He comes from a wrestling background and was the NCAA Division II national champion in 1999. At 35 years old, he’s getting his start in the UFC at a relatively old age. He’s a big heavyweight, but not quite as big as Lesnar. His striking is sloppy and often flat-footed, but he makes up for it with vicious knockout power. He’s finished his three UFC opponents in a little over three minutes of actual cage time. Carwin’s last win was over Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96. In that fight, he was hurt early by Gonzaga and was in a bad position on the ground as well. He was able to scramble to his feet to deliver the off-balance KO punch. That win over Gonzaga was his only win over a top flight opponent however. His other two UFC wins were over Christian Wellesch and Neil Wain. It’s hard to imagine that he’s ready for a guy like Mir, but his power and wrestling ability make him a threat. Mir won his last fight over Cheick Kongo in impressive fashion at UFC 107. He knocked Kongo down with a strong left hook, then finished him off with a guillotine. After his loss to Lesnar at UFC 100, Mir has made it a mission to bulk up to contend with the UFC’s bigger heavyweights like Carwin and Lesnar. The size he’s put on looks like good muscle, and it doesn’t seem to have affected his movement in any way. Mir’s main strength is his vaunted Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, though he struggled with having Lesnar on top of him at UFC 100. He claims that it was due more towards mistakes on his part rather than because of Lesnar’s size and strength, and vows to correct those mistakes. Mir has also improved his striking a great deal in recent years, though I think he’s beginning to fall in love with it a little too much. One shot from Carwin could be all it takes to end Mir’s night, so he has to be careful. I know many people think Carwin can do to Mir the same thing that Lesnar did, but I just don’t see it. To me, this is a lopsided fight. I think Mir is still a legit top-five heavyweight in the world, whereas Carwin is being vastly overrated due to his size and his knockout over Gonzaga. I think Mir can pick Carwin apart on his feet, though as I mentioned, he has to be a little careful with Carwin’s power. On the ground, I haven’t really seen Carwin there enough yet to say if he can be as dominating as Lesnar, but I think all signs point to no. I think Mir can take this fight relatively easily. Mir via submission in the 1st.

Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy: St. Pierre is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. After taking his title back from Matt Serra at UFC 83, St. Pierre has defended his belt three more times, defeating Jon Fitch at UFC 87, B.J. Penn at UFC 94 and Thiago Alves at UFC 100. He won the fights against Fitch and Alves via unanimous decision, though they were both dominating decisions. GSP’s win over Penn was a TKO due to Penn’s corner throwing in the towel after the fourth round. GSP is 19-2 in his career, with the losses coming to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra, both of which he avenged later in his career. His explosive wrestling is his strongest attribute, though his striking is underrated and his submission game is as well. He’s added considerable muscle mass in the past few months, and he now walks around at over 190 lbs making him a good sized welterweight. Hardy is getting this title shot a bit prematurely according to some, but he is 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Rory Markham, Akihiro Gono, Mike Swick and Marcus Davis. Overall, Hardy is 24-6 in his career. He mainly relies on his striking, though I feel his ground game is underrated. He’s not a great wrestler, but as a grappler he is pretty solid. I doubt you’ll see him submit St. Pierre, but all he really wants to do is negate St. Pierre’s top game long enough so he can scramble back to his feet. I think the only way that Hardy can win this fight is with the fight standing, so he needs to do whatever he can to keep himself upright. The UFC has spent a great deal of time, energy and money trying to tell us that Hardy is a worthwhile challenger to St. Pierre, but I have a hard time seeing it. GSP has beaten three fighters in a row who are far above Hardy’s class. I know that anything can happen, but I really don’t even think that Hardy’s standup game is a huge threat to St. Pierre. Hardy has good power in his hands, but nothing really overwhelming. I think St. Pierre will dominate this fight for as long as it goes until he decides to finish it. St. Pierre via TKO in the 2nd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Nate Diaz over Rory Markham via submission in the 2nd

Matt Brown over Ricardo Almeida via TKO in the 2nd

Rodney Wallace over Jared Hamman via unanimous decision

Rousimar Palhares over Tomasz Drawl by submission in the 1st

Matt Riddle over Greg Soto via unanimous decision

Popularity: 2% [?]

Share and Enjoy: