UFC 110 Preview and Predictions

February 19, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

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UFC 110 is the first of many exciting UFC events that will take place between now and early summer. After injuries derailed the past two cards, UFC 110 has held up pretty well. The event marks the UFC’s first ever trip to Australia, and though there are no title fights, the main card is loaded with evenly matched fights that could determine future challengers in the heavyweight, middleweight and lightweight divisions.

Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh: Cro Cop’s scheduled opponent, Ben Rothwell, was forced to drop out of the contest this afternoon due to an illness he’s been battling. Perosh is taking this fight on basically two days notice. Perosh is a native Australian and has prior UFC experience, dropping back-to-back fights in 2006 to Jeff Monson and Christian Wellisch. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but his standup game is extremely limited, making this a very dangerous matchup for Perosh. Overall, Perosh is 10-5 in his career, with seven of those wins coming via submission. Cro Cop was one of the most dangerous strikers in all of MMA in the early to mid- 2000s. During that time, Cro Cop defeated the likes of Wanderlei Silva, Josh Barnett and Mark Coleman among many others. His career record stands at 25-7. He lost to Junior dos Santos at UFC 103 via TKO in the 3rd round, dropping his UFC record to 2-3. After the dos Santos loss, Cro Cop flirted with retirement, but decided to change up his training routine in hopes that it will get him back on track. The fight with Rothwell would have given us an indication of whether the new training was helping, but a win here over Perosh won’t really prove much. This one probably won’t last very long. Cro Cop via TKO in the 1st.

Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader: Bader, the winner of season eight of The Ultimate Fighter, will try to improve his overall record to 11-0 as he takes on Jardine. Bader comes from a wrestling background and was a two-time All American wrestler at Arizona State University. In the finale of the reality show, Bader earned a first round TKO victory over Vinny Magalhaes. He followed that victory up with wins over Carmelo Marrero and Eric Schafer. This will be by far the toughest test of his career. Jardine is coming off a 1st round TKO loss to Thiago Silva at UFC 102. The loss was Jardine’s second consecutive defeat, as he also lost to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in the main event of UFC 96. Overall Jardine is 15-6 in his MMA career, and he sports a 6-5 record in the UFC. He’s defeated guys like Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell and Brandon Vera during his career, but has also lost fights that he should have won such as to Houston Alexander at UFC 71. The Greg Jackson trained fighter has shown a suspect chin in the past, but is also a tough matchup for anyone due to his unorthodox striking and overall skill set. Many people are giving Bader the nod here and he is the Vegas favorite as well. I think Jardine’s takedown defense is being taken for granted, and the huge leap up that Bader will face here in going from Marrero and Schafer to Jardine needs to also be taken into account. I think Jardine can keep Bader off balanced with his striking, and his takedown defense is good enough to keep him standing for much of the fight. I think a decision is likely, but I think it goes Jardine’s way. Jardine via unanimous decision.

Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos: Sotiropoulos is also taking a big step up in competition in this contest, going from bottom feeders of the lightweight division to a guy who fought for the lightweight title at UFC 80 in Joe Stevenson. Stevenson was the winner of the second season of The Ultimate Fighter, but lost his first post-Ultimate Fighter fight to Josh Neer. Stevenson then went on a four-fight winning streak, earning him a shot at B.J. Penn for the lightweight title. Stevenson was completely outclassed by Penn, who won the fight via rear naked choke in the 2nd round after Penn opened a huge gash on Stevenson’s head that bled profusely. Stevenson returned to action at UFC 86, submitting Gleison Tibau in the 2nd round. However, Stevenson lost his next two fights to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez, effectively removing him from title contention. Stevenson has rebounded with consecutive victories over Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher to improve his MMA record to 31-10 and his UFC record to 8-4. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though he doesn’t seem to utilize it very well during his fights. He’s also a solid wrestler, but struggles with his striking from time to time. Sotiropoulos was a member of the 6th season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he lost in the semifinals to Tommy Speer. He was signed to a UFC contract and has gone 4-0 in his first four contests. His last fight was a submission victory over Jason Dent at UFC 106 in November. He’s also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and he uses it very well in the cage as he showcased in the Dent fight. He’s been working on his standup game, but it’s still a weakness of his. Stevenson doesn’t showcase a very diversified striking game either, so I’m not sure who will have the advantage standing. This fight may come down to whether or not Sotiropoulos can avoid being put on his back by Stevenson. There’s a very strong possibility that Stevenson can smother Sotiropoulos for three rounds and earn a victory. However, I think Sotiropoulos can pull off the upset. He’s fighting in his home country and will definitely have the crowd support, but also has a skill set that can cause Stevenson problems. Sotiropoulos via submission in the 2nd round.

Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping: Silva is in a bit of a tailspin, dropping five of his past six fights, and is 1-3 in his second stint with the UFC. He last fought at UFC 99, dropping a close decision to Rich Franklin in the main event. He also has lost fights to Rampage Jackson and Chuck Liddell since he came back to the UFC in 2007. He was one of the most dominant fighters of all-time in his prime, going 16-0 between 2000-2004. In that stretch, Silva beat Dan Henderson, Kazushi Sakuraba (three times) and Rampage Jackson (twice). In that stretch, only two fights even went the distance. Silva dropped his final two fights in the PRIDE organization in late 2006/early 2007 to Mirko Cro Cop and Dan Henderson. He’s still a ferocious striker and also is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though he prefers to keep fights standing. He’s clearly not the same fighter that he was in his prime, but he has changed some of his training habits and vows to return to form. Bisping rebounded from his devastating knockout loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 100 to defeat Denis Kang via TKO at UFC 105. Bisping was the light heavyweight winner of the third season of The Ultimate Fighter, but dropped to middleweight following a split-decision loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 78. In his UFC career, Bisping is 8-2 with six stoppages in those eight victories. He’s mainly a striker, though he doesn’t possess a great deal of power. He utilized his footwork to keep him out of trouble, but poor footwork and a poor gameplan got him knocked out by an overhand right hand from Henderson at UFC 100. His wrestling game is improving, but I don’t think we’ll see much of it in this contest. The only way I really see Bisping winning this fight is to use his jab and footwork to keep Silva at a distance and try to score enough points to win a decision. I just have a feeling that Silva will eventually connect with a power shot that will end Bisping’s night. There is simply nothing about Bisping’s standup game that Silva fears, and he will probably come in with reckless abandon. Silva via TKO in the 2nd.

Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: Depending on what happens in the Frank Mir/Shane Carwin fight at UFC 111, the winner of this heavyweight contest might get the first shot at Brock Lesnar when he makes his return this summer. Velasquez is one of the rising stars of the UFC’s heavyweight divsion. The American Kickboxing Academy product boasts a 7-0 record, and is 5-0 in his UFC career. He took on tough veteran heavyweight Ben Rothwell at UFC 104, and Velasquez earned a TKO victory in the 2nd round of a dominating performance. Velasquez comes from a wrestling background, and was an All-American at Arizona State. The trainers at AKA talk about his kickboxing prowess frequently, though from what I’ve seen of it, they are exaggerating somewhat. He simply doesn’t pack a lot of power in his punches, and against a resiliant guy like Nogueira, that could pose some major problems. He does have a very good top game, but as evidenced in his fight against Cheick Kongo at UFC 99, he is vulnerable to getting hit as he goes in for takedowns.

Nogueira is one of the best heavyweights of all-time. His list of victims in the heavyweight division is basically the who’s who of heavyweights. During his stint in PRIDE, Nogueira beat Mark Coleman, Heath Herring, Ricco Rodriguez, Mirko Cro Cop, Fabricio Werdum and Josh Barnett. Since entering the UFC, Nogueira has dispatched of Herring again, Tim Sylvia and Randy Couture. That’s quite an impressive list. The win over Couture at UFC 102 was important because many people (myself included) were counting him out after his subpar performance against Frank Mir at UFC 92. It was later learned that Nogueira was dealing with a variety of ailments that may have contributed to the loss. Nogueira has been though many tough fights in his career, and though he is only 33 years old, there is some fear that he’s on a steep decline in his career. However, if he fights like he did against Couture in this fight, a lot of that talk will be put on hold for awhile. In his career, Nogueira is 32-5-1 overall. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and is one of the most dangerous heavyweights of all-time with his submission game. He is also a very good boxer, and is almost miraculous when it comes to recovering from shots that would end the nights of most fighters. Much like I don’t think Wanderlei Silva will be concerned with Bisping’s power, I don’t think Silva will be too intimidated by Velasquez’s. There will probably be a moment in this fight where Nogueira is hurt from a shot from Velasquez, but I just don’t think Velasquez has the power to really put Nogueira away. If Velasquez can utilize his wrestling to keep him in top control against Nogueira, he still isn’t out of the woods. The way Nogueira strung together sweeps and submission attempts against Couture has to be in Velasquez’s mind. Velasquez is the betting favorite in this one, though I’m really not sure why. I have a tough time envisioning Velasquez winning this fight. I think a healthy Nogueira, which by all accounts he is, is dangerous from almost any position in this fight. I’m not sure if Nogueira will submit Velasquez, but I think his advantage in the striking game and his ability to sweep from the bottom will earn him the nod. Nogueira via unanimous decision.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Brian Foster over Chris Lytle via unanimous decision

Krzysztof Soszynski over Stephan Bonnar via TKO in the 2nd

Goran Reljic over C.B. Dollaway via TKO in the 1st

James Te Huna over Igor Pokrajac via unanimous decision

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