UFC 109 Preview and Predictions

February 05, 2010 | Tim | Comments 0

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UFC 109 has been slammed by some due to the age of the participants in the main event (91 years old combined), but the card features several important undercard matchups that will determine future title challengers in the middleweight and welterweight divisions.

Frank Trigg vs. Matt Serra: The loser of this fight could be a little light on job security. Trigg came back to the UFC after a four-year absence to face Josh Koscheck at UFC 103. Koscheck battered Trigg early and often, getting the TKO stoppage just over a minute into the first round. There were some rumors that Trigg was going to be released after that fight, but UFC matchmaker Joe Silva and Dana White decided to give Trigg another shot. Trigg was a phenominal amateur wrestler, and nearly made the U.S. Olympic wrestling team in 2000. Trigg went 2-3 in the UFC in his first run, losing to Matt Hughes twice and Georges St. Pierre. After leaving the UFC, Trigg won seven of his next nine fights to claim a top-10 welterweight ranking in some publications prior to his fight with Koscheck. The 37 year old is 19-7 overall in his career. Serra is coming off of back-to-back losses, and has only fought twice in the last two-and-a-half years since his upset victory over Georges St. Pierre to win the welterweight title in April of 2007. He lost the rematch to GSP at UFC 83 and finally fought Matt Hughes at UFC 98 where he dropped a unanimous decision. Serra is 9-6 overall in his career, and is 6-6 inside the UFC. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though he’s never utilized those skills fully inside the Octagon. He also has good power in his punches, though he relies on his striking a little too much. Serra’s short stature makes it difficult for him when he faces larger opponents. He’ll be at a reach disadvantage against Trigg, though it won’t be as pronounced as the disadvantage he has against some bigger welterweights. This fight is a toss-up to me. I can see Trigg’s wrestling controlling the majority of the contest. With his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Serra can be dangerous from the bottom, but as I stated earlier, his submission game from the guard isn’t often utilized. In fact, the last opponent that Serra submitted was Kelly Dullanty all the way back at UFC 36. Trigg’s striking game still has holes, and Serra can exploit them if the fight remains standing. I think Serra will catch Trigg eventually, and will be able to pound out a finish. Serra via TKO in the 2nd.

Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller: Maia is going to try and get back in the UFC middleweight title hunt after his devastating opening-minute KO loss to Nate Marquardt at UFC 102 in August. He proclaimed before that fight that he would show a better striking game than he had shown in the past, but an ill-fated jumping knee is what got him knocked out against Marquardt. Despite the striking holes in his game, Maia usually makes up for it with some of the slickest Brazilian Jiu Jitsu in all of MMA. He submitted his first five opponents inside the Octagon, including guys such as Nate Quarry and Chael Sonnen. The way he flows from one submission attempt to the next is really a joy to watch. Miller also dropped his last fight, a dominating unanimous decision loss to Chael Sonnen at UFC 98. He’s a pretty well-rounded fighter. He has a wrestling background, and usually has solid takedown defense, though he was unable to stop Sonnen’s wrestling. His striking is usually a weakness for him, but in this contest he’ll actually have the striking advantage. Miller has recently been awarded his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but his skills on the ground are nowhere near the level of Maia’s. It’s for that reason that I believe Miller will try to keep this fight standing as much as possible. He’ll try and utilize his wrestling in reverse, stopping Maia’s takedowns to keep the fight on the feet. Even though Maia’s wrestling isn’t great, he’s also not afraid to pull guard. It’s going to be important for Miller to avoid clinching with Maia. I just don’t think Miller’s striking is dynamic enough to offset Maia’s all-world BJJ skills. Eventually, Maia will catch him and finish the fight. Maia via submission in the 2nd.

Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago: Swick’s chances for a title shot against UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre evaporated when he was dominated by Dan Hardy at UFC 105. He’s stepping in for injured teammate Josh Koscheck, who was set to rematch Thiago, who defeated him at UFC 95. Prior to that loss, Swick had won four straight fights and nine out of 10 overall. One of the fighters in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, Swick has an overall record of 14-3, including a 9-2 record in the UFC. He mixes in solid wrestling and takedown defense to go along with a pretty good striking game, even though he lost that battle against Hardy. Thiago has taken some tough fights since entering the UFC. He entered the Octagon for the first time at UFC 95 as a huge underdog to Josh Koscheck, but connected on a viscious uppercut that floored and finished him in the first round. He faced Koscheck and Swick’s teammate Jon Fitch at UFC 100, dropping a unanimous decision. Thiago then faced Jacob Volkmann at UFC 106 in November, defeating him by unanimous decision in an exciting fight. Thiago is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and also showed some decent wrestling in his loss to Fitch. His striking remains his weakness however. Even in the knockout win over Koscheck, he was getting tagged repeatedly before landing the knockout blow. Swick should be able to use his range to keep Thiago off-balance and should utilize his hand speed to batter Thiago when the fight is standing. Swick’s takedown defense is very underrated, and his defensive Brazilian Jiu Jitsu is solid as well. I think Swick will be able to win this fight, though Thiago is certainly a threat. Swick via unanimous decision.

Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen: UFC president Dana White has stated that the winner of this fight will face the winner of the Anderson Silva/Vitor Belfort fight for the middleweight title. I found it a little puzzling, considering that Sonnen isn’t far removed from being submitted by Demian Maia in the first round of their fight back at UFC 95. However, Sonnen has strung together back-to-back wins over Jim Miller and Yushin Okami to even his UFC record back up at 3-3. Overall, Sonnen is 24-10 in his career, and of those 24 wins, 14 have been via decision. His main asset is his excellent wrestling ability. Sonnen was a national champion in collegiate wrestling, and served as an alternate on the U.S. Olympic wrestling team as well. As with many of the guys at Team Quest, he’s had trouble rounding out the rest of his game however. He’s always had trouble with his submission defense, and his striking is average at best. Marquardt is coming off a knockout win over Demian Maia at UFC 102. He was rumored to face Dan Henderson for a shot at Anderson Silva before Henderson left to go to Strikeforce. Marquardt is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, has solid wrestling and takedown defense, and his striking seems to get better every time out. He’s 29-8 in his MMA career, and is an impressive 8-2 in his UFC career. He lost to Anderson Silva in his first title shot at UFC 73, but has improved greatly as a fighter since that fight. Sonnen’s only hope is to smother Marquardt for all three rounds, but with Marquardt’s solid Jiu Jitsu skills, that won’t be easy. Even though Marquardt doesn’t use his BJJ offensively very often, he does utilize it to create scrambles and to get back to his feet. Marquardt will certainly have the edge in the striking department. I think it’ll just be a matter of time until Marquardt gets the win here. Marquardt via TKO in the 2nd.

Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman: Two UFC hall-of-famers and tremendous amateur wrestlers will clash in the main event of UFC 109. Coleman won a NCAA national championship in wrestling at Ohio State and wrestled with the U.S. Olympic team in 1992 where he finished seventh. He was the first UFC heavyweight champion, winning the title by beating Dan Severn at UFC 12. However, Coleman dropped his next three fights in the UFC and left to go to PRIDE. He dropped his first fight there too, but rebounded to win his next six fights along with the PRIDE openweight Grand Prix in 2000. Coleman went on to lose fights to superstars such as Mirko Cro Cop, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and Fedor Emelianenko before leaving the sport for three years beginning in 2006. Coleman returned to the sport and to the UFC in 2009 at UFC 93, losing to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in the 3rd round via TKO. Coleman was visibly gassed as early as the first round in that fight. However, he returned to the Octagon at UFC 100, upsetting Stephan Bonnar via unanimous decision. Coleman was in much better condition for that contest.

Couture was also an All-American wrestler in college, and also was a national runner-up twice. He was a U.S. Olympic wrestling team alternate three times, and was a semifinalist at the 2000 U.S. Olympic trials. He began his MMA career at UFC 13 and won his first seven fights inside the Octagon before dropping his UFC heavyweight championship to Josh Barnett at UFC 36 (Barnett tested positive for steroids after the contest). He dropped his next fight to Ricco Rodriguez for the now vacant UFC heavyweight championship before dropping down to light heavyweight. At light heavyweight, Couture won the interim light heavyweight championship by beating Chuck Liddell at UFC 43, then won the unified title by beating Tito Ortiz at UFC 44. He lost the title to Vitor Belfort due to a cut, but defeated Belfort in a rematch. Couture lost to Liddell twice in subsequent rematches before a contract dispute ended his UFC career for a year in 2006-2007. Couture made a triumphant return to the UFC by winning the heavyweight championship by defeating Tim Sylvia at UFC 68. He defended his championship by defeating Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74 before losing the title to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91. A loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his next fight at UFC 102 showed Couture he needed to drop back to light heavyweight where his size wouldn’t be such a disadvantage. Couture defeated Brandon Vera in a very close fight at UFC 105.

The difference in this fight should be the evolution of the two fighters. Coleman hasn’t done much to change his game from his ground n’ pound roots. Meanwhile, Couture has incorporated an outstanding clinch game to go along with decent striking skills that compliment his outstanding wrestling. In this fight with two outstanding wrestlers, it will be Couture’s more well-rounded game along with his superior conditioning that will win him the fight. Couture via TKO in the 3rd.

Preliminary Card:

Rolles Gracie over Joey Beltran via submission in the 1st

Chris Tuchscherer over Tim Hague via unanimous decision

Brian Stann over Phil Davis via TKO in the 2nd

Phillipe Nover over Rob Emerson via unanimous decision

Ronnys Torres over Melvin Guillard by submission in the 2nd

Mac Danzig over Justin Buchholz via submission in the 1st

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