UFC 107 Preview and Predictions
I apologize in advance for the shorter than normal preview. My internet is down so I’m typing the preview from my blackberry instead. On to the fights!
Paul Buentello vs. Stefan Struve: Buentello is making his return to the UFC, but he’ll have a tough test in Struve. Struve is a ground specialist who is working to bulk up and improve his striking. Buentello’s bread-and-butter is his striking. He’ll be at a reach disadvantage with Struve, but should still have the advantage in striking. Struve is very dangerous on the ground however. Buentello has the experience advantage, but I think Struve can pull this one off. Struve via submission in the 2nd.
Jon Fitch vs. Mike Pierce: Fitch is trying to work his way back to a title shot against Georges St, Pierre, while Pierce is trying to follow up on his impressive victory over Brock Larson at UFC Fight Night 19. Fitch last fought at UFC 100, winning a decision over Paulo Thiago. Both guys are strong wrestlers with a collegiate wrestling background, but I think Fitch is the better all-around fighter. I think this one is headed to the scorecards either way. Fitch via unanimous decision.
Kenny Florian vs. Clay Guida: Guida is trying to finally break into the upper echelon of UFC lightweights. He’s 5-4 in his UFC career, and was on a three-fight winning streak prior to his loss to Diego Sachez at The Ultimate Finale 9. Florian is at a bit of a crossroads in his UFC career. He’s among the top lightweights in the world, but he’s lost twice in title fights. He’ll probably need someone to dethrone Penn to receive another title shot. A lot of people are picking Guida in this one. I don’t see it. His wrestling is better than Florian’s, but Florian has the edge in all other areas. His striking has improved a great deal over the years, and his jiu jitsu game is good and underrated. His cardio has never been an issue, so I don’t see Guida’s pace really being a problem. Florian should win this fight easier than many expect. Florian via unanimous decision.
Frank Mir vs. Cheick Kongo: Mir has bulked up since losing to Brock Lesnar at UFC 100. He’s put on about 25 lbs since then, and weighed in at 264.5 lbs today. He believes he needs to get stronger to take on the bigger guys in the division. I’m interested to see the toll it takes on his sometimes questionable gas tank. Kongo last fought at UFC 99, where he dropped a decision to Cain Velasquez. In that fight, Kongo landed some good shots, but really struggled with Velasquez’s wrestling. Mir is nowhere near the wrestler than Velasquez is, but if he can get Kongo down, he should be able to submit him. He may have to withstand some punishment to do so, but I think he’ll be able to. Mir via submission in the 2nd.
B.J. Penn vs. Diego Sanchez: Penn is looking to successfully defend his title for the 3rd time since winning it at UFC 80. His last fight was a submission victory over Kenny Florian at UFC 101. He dominated Florian in all facets of the game in that contest. Sanchez beat Clay Guida by split-decision at The Ultimate Finale 9. In that fight, Sanchez came out firing from the opening bell, nearly finishing Guida with a head kick in the opening round. Sanchez’s striking looked improved, but it’s hard to really tell because Guida’s striking is subpar. He’s black belt level in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and is trained under Saulo Ribeiro. Since dropping to the lightweight division, Sanchez has looked explosive in his victories over Joe Stevenson and Guida. However, he faces a stiff challenge in Penn. Penn’s striking is better than Sanchez, and his Jiu Jitsu is as well. In addition, Penn’s takedown defense is outstanding. The only person who has been really successful in out-wrestling Penn is Georges St. Pierre, and Sanchez is no GSP. Sanchez has earned my respect in the way his overall game has improved, but I still don’t think he’s at Penn’s level. Penn via TKO in the 3rd.
Undercard Picks:
Alan Belcher over Wilson Gouvia via 2nd round TKO
Matt Wiman over Shane Nelson via 2nd round TKO
Johny Hendricks over Ricardo Funch via decision
Rousimar Palhares over Lucio Linhares via decision
Edgar Garcia over DaMarques Johnson via 1st round TKO
Kevin Burns over T.J. Grant via decision
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Filed Under: Event Previews
