UFC 106 Preview and Predictions-Main Card
Phil Baroni vs. Amir Sadollah: Baroni will be making his return to the UFC after a four and a half year absence. He left the UFC after losing four consecutive fights to Matt Lindland, Evan Tanner (twice) and Pete Sell. Since leaving the UFC, Baroni has gone 8-6 in organizations such as PRIDE, Elite XC and Strikeforce. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Joe Riggs at Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields. Sadollah was the winner of season seven of The Ultimate Fighter, but since then, he’s dealt with various injuries as well as a loss to Johny Hendricks at UFC 101. That fight may have been stopped a little prematurely, but Sadollah was in trouble anyway. He’ll try to rebound here against Baroni. Baroni had been known as a guy with no gas tank whatsoever, but he appeared to be in much better condition against Riggs in his last fight. However, I think Sadollah will have too much for him here. Sadollah via submission in the 2nd.
Luiz Cane vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Nogueira, the twin brother of UFC heavyweight Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, will be making his UFC debut. He’s 17-3 overall in his MMA career, and has wins over Kazushi Sakuraba, Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson and Vladimir Matyushenko during his career. He’s an accomplished amateur boxer, and much like his brother, he is very dangerous on the ground with his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Cane will be taking a big leap up in competition in this contest. He’s 11-1 in his career, with the lone loss coming because of an illegal knee he delivered to James Irvin at UFC 79. Since then, he’s defeated Jason Lambert, Sokoudjou, and Steve Cantwell. Nogueira is a huge step up from guys like that. He won a unanimous decision over Cantwell, but wasn’t as dominant as many expected. He’s an extremely hard puncher, but is largely untested on the ground. I think Nogueira will test him there. Expect a slugfest for a round or so before Nogueira decides he’s had enough and brings the fight to the ground. From there, he’ll finish. Nogueira via submission in the 2nd.
Paulo Thiago vs. Jacob Volkmann: Thiago will finally get a break from top 10 welterweights, as his first two fights in the Octagon were against Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. His upset of Koscheck vaulted him into the top 15 in many people’s opinion, and his solid showing against Jon Fitch at UFC 100 helped keep him there. Now, the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt will be tested by a guy who is in a similar position to the one he was in against Koscheck, Jacob Volkmann. Volkmann is everyone’s underdog pick for this card. He’s undefeated at 9-0 with six submissions to his credit. He’s an outstanding wrestler to go along with his jiu jitsu skills. Thiago looked sloppy on his feet until he knocked out Koscheck with an uppercut. This is a very tough fight to call, as many of the main card fights are as well. However, I think Thiago will have a slight advantage on the ground with his jiu jitsu skills. Volkmann will put up a very good fight, but I think Thiago gets the win. Thiago via unanimous decision.
Anthony Johnson vs. Josh Koscheck: Johnson is making a quick turnaround from his brutal knockout of Yoshihiro Yoshida that took only 41 seconds at UFC 104. He’s is extremely dangerous on his feet, with explosive power in both his hands and his feet. He’s very fast and athletic, and has a collegiate wrestling background as well. In his UFC career, Johnson is 8-2, with losses coming to Rich Clementi (a fight that he took on very short notice) and Kevin Burns (a fight that should have been ruled a no contest after Burns ended the fight with an eye poke). He’ll match up against perennial top 10 welterweight Josh Koscheck. Koscheck is coming off a first round TKO win over Frank Trigg at UFC 103. He’s 13-4 overall in his MMA career, and has an impressive 11-4 record in the UFC. He was a great collegiate wrestler, winning the national championship in 2001 at 174 pounds. He was also a four-time collegiate All-American, and he placed in the top four in the nation all four years at his weight class. He has some of the most explosive takedowns in all of MMA, and has also improved his striking a great deal in recent years. However, he seems to fall in love with his striking abilities and that has come back to bite him a few times, most recently against Paulo Thiago. However, if Koscheck re-commits to his wrestling, I don’t think there is much that Johnson can do to stop it. The longer the fight stays standing, the better it will be for Johnson. However, I think Koscheck is smart enough to know that he needs to stay out of the danger zone against Johnson, and instead use his wrestling abilities. Koscheck via unanimous decision.
Tito Ortiz vs. Forrest Griffin: Ortiz will be making his return to the UFC after a long, 18 month absence. During that time, Ortiz flirted with going to other organizations, and also had surgery on his back. Ortiz says that the lingering back injury had kept him from being at 100% for some time, and that he was finally feeling healthy. We’ll see if a “healthy” Ortiz is a better Ortiz than the one we last saw. During his long UFC career, Ortiz has gone 14-6, with wins over Wanderlei Silva, Vladimir Matyushenko, Evan Tanner, Vitor Belfort and Griffin. The win over Griffin was a very close fight, with Ortiz winning the split-decision. He clearly won the first round, though the next two were debateable. He maintains that he wasn’t close to being healthy in that fight, and that was the reason for the poor showing. At his peak, Ortiz defended his light heavyweight title a UFC record five times. He utilized his wrestling, which at the time, was some of the best in MMA. For this fight, Ortiz is training standup with Freddie Roach, so it’ll be interesting to see if he’s made any improvements in his striking game. Griffin is coming off two consecutive losses to Rashad Evans and a embarrassing loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 101. He’ll be looking to make amends for that performance, and start working his way back to the top of the light heavyweight division. Griffin is 16-6 overall in his career, with wins over Rampage Jackson and Shogun Rua mixed in. He usually wins by outworking guys and with his superior stamina. However, he doesn’t possess great knockout power, and usually makes his living by throwing lots of leg kicks and jabs that keep his opponents off balance. Takedown defense is also a weakness of his, and he’s shown a pretty poor guard after being rocked on his feet. His loose guard against Evans enabled Evans to end the fight with a ground ‘n’ pound flurry. If Tito is indeed back to 100%, we’ll see him takedown Griffin early and often. We’ll know relatively early if that’s not the case. Also, can Ortiz last three full rounds with Griffin after such a long layoff? Conditioning has always been a strong suit of Ortiz, so I’m guessing that he can. It’s a very tough fight to predict because there are so many variables. How will the layoff affect Ortiz? How is Griffin’s mental state after the loss to Silva? We’ll find out in a few hours. I think Ortiz will look more like the Ortiz of old instead of an old Ortiz in this one. Ortiz via unanimous decision.
Popularity: 1% [?]
Related posts:
- UFC 106 Recap and Thoughts
- UFC 104 Preview and Predictions-Main Card
- UFC 101 predictions: Main Card
- UFC Fight Night 24 Preview and Predictions
- UFC 100 Main Card Predictions
Filed Under: Event Previews
