UFC 105 Preview and Predictions

November 13, 2009 | Tim | Comments 0

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UFC 105 is one of the better free UFC cards from the last year, even though it doesn’t feature a title fight. Randy Couture squares off against Brandon Vera in the night’s main event, while the co-feature between Mike Swick and Dan Hardy will likely determine Georges St. Pierre’s next title challenger.

Ross Pearson vs. Aaron Riley: Pearson was the winner of the lightweight division on season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter. This will be his first fight since he defeated Andre Winner to claim the crown. In the fight against Winner, Pearson wore the bigger man down throughout the fight, and claimed a unanimous decision victory. He’s going up against the 40 fight veteran Riley in this contest. Riley is 2-3 in his UFC career, and beat Shane Nelson at UFC 101 in his last fight. Riley now trains with Greg Jackson in New Mexico, and that could be the difference in this fight. I was leaning towards picking Pearson for most of the week, however I think his relative inexperience could cost him against Riley. I think Pearson has a pretty bright future, but still has a ways to go. Riley via split decision.

James Wilks vs. Matt Brown: The welterweight winner of season 9 of The Ultimate Fighter, Wilks will also be fighting for the first time since beating DaMarques Johnson at the season finale. Wilks was dominating in that fight before finishing Johnson off with a rear-naked choke near the end of the first round. He’ll have have a tough fight on his hands with Matt Brown tomorrow night. Brown hasn’t fought since beating Pete Sell in a brilliant performance at UFC 96. He’s 3-1 in his UFC career, with the only loss coming in a close decision to Dong Hyun Kim. He’s a very physical fighter and mainly relies on his striking. I definitely think Wilks has a chance in this one. He looked far better against Johnson than I expected him to. However, Brown’s aggressive striking and overall strength should give him the advantage. Brown via TKO in the 2nd.

Michael Bisping vs. Denis Kang: Bisping will look to get back in the winner’s column after a brutal knockout loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 100. That fight showed a complete lack of preparation and gameplanning by Bisping, as he continued to circle left throughout the entire fight, even with his corner yelling at him to stop. The mistake eventually resulted in a thunderous right hand from Henderson that ended the fight. He’ll make his return in his homeland against veteran fighter Denis Kang. Kang had been heralded as one of the better non-UFC middleweights in the world as he went undefeated over a 23-fight stretch between 2003-2006. The UFC hasn’t been as kind to him however, as he lost to Alan Belcher in his first contest at UFC 93. He rebounded to win a decision victory over Xavier Foupa-Pokam at UFC 97. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and a competent striker, but he sometimes makes mental errors that cost him fights. Kang has the power advantage on his feet, though I think Bisping is the better overall striker. And though Kang is tough on th e ground, Bisping is tough to takedown and to keep down. I think Bisping rebounds in this one and takes a decision. Bisping via unanimous decision.

Mike Swick vs. Dan Hardy: The winner of this fight will likely be in line for a title shot against welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. Swick was scheduled to fight Martin Kampmann at UFC 103, but suffered a concussion just before the fight and had to withdraw. He’s an impressive 9-1 in his UFC career, with the lone loss against Yushin Okami. He hasn’t fought top competition, but that’s not entirely his fault. Swick trains with the American Kickboxing Academy alongside Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch, so finding suitable training partners is definitely not a problem. He’s become a very well-rounded fighter. He has quick hands and underestimated power. He also is solid on the ground. Hardy is the heir to Michael Bisping’s throne among British UFC fans. He’s gone 3-0 in the UFC, with a split decision win over Akihiro Gono, a knockout win over Rory Markham, and a split decision victory over Marcus Davis at UFC 99. He’s certainly been impressive thus far. However, I think Swick can show that there are many holes in Hardy’s game. For one, Swick should be able to take Hardy down almost at will. Although Hardy is improving on the ground (he trains under Eddie Bravo at 10th planet Jiu Jitsu), Swick should have the advantage there as well. Just when Hardy starts focusing on stopping Swick’s takedowns is the moment that Swick will take advantage with his hands. I see an easy Swick victory. Swick via TKO in the 2nd.

Randy Couture vs. Brandon Vera: Couture is making the drop down to light-heavyweight for one more run at the title. He lost to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 102 in a very good fight. The back-to-back losses to Brock Lesnar and Nogueira showed Couture that he had a long road back to the title picture in the heavyweight division, so he decided to drop down a weight class. His story is legendary. Everytime that he is counted out, he comes back and shows he still has a lot left. Can he do it again in this one? Vera will be fighting for the fifth time since dropping down to light heavyweight, though he hasn’t proven to be dominant in the weight class yet. He struggled to win a decision over Reese Andy, and followed that up with a decision loss to Keith Jardine. A TKO victory over the completely overmatched Mike Patt followed at UFC 96, and Vera followed that up with a pedestrian decision victory over Krzysztof Soszynski at UFC 102. He has yet to look like the dominant Brandon Vera we saw in victories over Justin Eilers, Assuerio Silva and Frank Mir in 2006. Whether it’s a lack of focus or just poor execution, Vera doesn’t look the same. People continue to talk about the promise and skills of Vera, though eventually he needs to start producing before he is relegated to preliminary card status. Vera actually matches up well with Couture in this one. His reach advantage while standing should help him keep Couture at a distance, and if Couture does get into the clinch, Vera’s Greco-Roman wrestling background should help him, though his wrestling skills are nowhere near the level of Couture’s. However, it’s hard to count out Couture. I still don’t think Vera is back to the 2006 version of himself, and he may never get there. He can win the fight with a smart gameplan of keeping Couture at a distance and peppering him with leg kicks and combinations. However, betting on Vera to regain his old form is just too risky for me at this point. Couture via unanimous decision.

Undercard Quick Picks:

Terry Etim over Shannon Gugerty via 2nd round TKO.

Paul Taylor over John Hathaway via 1st round TKO.

Matt Riddle over Nick Osipczak via unanimous decision.

Paul Kelly over Dennis Siver via unanimous decision.

Jared Hamman over Alexander Gustafsson via 2nd round TKO.

Andre Winner over Roli Delgado via 1st round TKO.

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