UFC 104 Preview and Predictions- Preliminary Card
Once again the UFC and Spike TV have provided the fans the opportunity to see some of the prelim fights in a one-hour commercial-free broadcast that will air at 8pm Central time. The fights that are guaranteed to be shown during the special are Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer and Pat Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk. However, if those fights end quickly, there’s a good chance we may get to see a couple more of the prelim fights. Here’s the preview for the preliminary card:
Ryan Bader vs. Eric Schafer: The winner of season eight of The Ultimate Fighter, Ryan Bader looks to improve to 3-0 inside the Octagon as he takes on a tough challenger in Eric Schafer. Schafer is a five-fight veteran of the UFC, going 3-2 in those fights. He has beaten Houston Alexander, Rob MacDonald and most recently, Antonio Mendes at UFC 93. His two losses were to Michael Bisping and Stephan Bonnar. He is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu,and seven of his 11 career wins have come via submission. In Bader’s most recent fight, a unanimous decision win over Carmelo Marrero at UFC Fight Night 18, he showcased his wrestling ability, but didn’t do a whole lot of damage from the top. He’ll need to be careful when in top position against Schafer, who has shown the ability to submit opponents from his back. I think that Bader will showcase a little more striking in this contest, and I think we’ll really see some improvement in his overall game. Bader by TKO in the 2nd.
Pat Barry vs. Antoni Hardonk: In a battle of two former K-1 kickboxers, it may be the ground game that becomes the x-factor in the contest. Barry comes into the contest with a 1-1 record in the UFC. He used a barrage of leg kicks to stop Dan Evensen in his UFC debut, but was submitted by Tim Hague at UFC 98. He has yet to show any sort of ground game or knowledge so far in his short UFC career. Hardonk has fought seven times in the UFC, winning four times. His last fight was a 2nd round loss to Cheick Kongo at UFC 97. He also brings the ability to leg kick his way to stoppage, doing so twice in his UFC career. However, the one difference between him and Barry may be on the ground. Hardonk is no Brazilian Jiu Jitsu wizard by any stretch of the imagination, but he at least has a little understanding of what to do on the ground. I actually expect Hardonk to get the better of Barry standing as well, as his reach advantage should come into play. However, if Hardonk is losing the striking battle, if he can get Barry to the mat he should be able to finish. Hardonk via TKO in the 1st.
Stefan Struve vs. Chase Gormley: Gormley will be making his UFC debut after compiling a 6-0 record in smaller promotions. He was scheduled to fight fellow UFC 104 participant Ben Rothwell at the ill-fated Affliction event in August, but after the promotion folded he was scheduled in this contest. He is a former NAIA wrestling All-American and is progressing in other areas of his game. Struve is 1-1 in his UFC career, losing to rising heavyweight Junior Dos Santos in his UFC debut before defeating Denis Stojnic at UFC 99. His height (6′11) causes matchup problems for other heavyweights, but he is not very good on his feet. If Gormley can keep the fight standing, he has a good chance to win this one early. Gormley is stronger and hits harder. If the fight goes to the ground, Gormley has to be wary of Struve’s guard, but it shouldn’t present him with too many problems. I see Gormley winning this one rather easily. Gormley via TKO in the 2nd.
Razak Al-Hassan vs. Kyle Kingsbury: Al-Hassan was highly thought of as he racked up a 6-0 record accross smaller organizations. He was completely overmatched in his UFC debut before having his arm broken by a Steve Cantwell armbar. Al-Hassan’s refusal to tap out has caused him to be on the shelf for the past 10 months as he recovered from the injury. Kingsbury, a contestant on season eight of The Ultimate Fighter, lost his UFC debut to Tom Lawlor on the season’s finale. Kingsbury fights with the American Kickboxing Academy in California, and it will be interesting to see what improvements he’s made in his overall game. Regardless, what he showed against Lawlor should be enough to defeat Al-Hassan. Al-Hassan’s striking was very stiff, and I think Kingsbury will be able to take advantage of that. Kingsbury via TKO in the 2nd.
Rob Kimmons vs. Jorge Rivera: Rivera is a 10-fight veteran of the UFC, going 5-5 in those fights. He’s a solid all-around fighter, but his skills seemed to slip a bit in his last fight against Nissen Osterneck in April. He’s 37, and it could be that age has caught up to him. Kimmons is 2-1 in his UFC career, and has proven to be somewhat of a submission specialist, winning 14 times by submission so far in his career. Rivera should still have the advantage in the striking department, but if the fight goes to the ground it’ll be all Kimmons. Kimmons via submission in the 1st.
Yushin Okami vs. Chael Sonnen: In a battle of two top-10 middleweights, Okami and Sonnen will be looking to move up the UFC’s middleweight food chain. Of course, Okami’s heard that numerous times before, but can’t seem to get in the UFC’s good graces. Whether it’s been his fighting style or injuries, Okami has been passed over for a title shot numerous times. He’s 7-1 in the UFC, with the only loss coming to Rich Franklin at UFC 72. He’s beaten the likes of Alan Belcher, Mike Swick, Jason MacDonald, and Evan Tanner in his UFC career. He’s a solid grappler and possesses good standup skills as well. He’s also one of the strongest middleweights in the world. Sonnen’s game is based on his very good wrestling abilities. He’s 2-3 in his UFC career, but is coming off a win in his last fight against Dan Miller at UFC 98. He’s a former NCAA wrestling champion. He may have a tough time controlling this fight with his wrestling as he’s done in the past. Okami will have a strength advantage, and will have the advantage on his feet too. Okami will likely try to utilize the clinch game as well. I can see Sonnen grinding out a decision, but I’m going with Okami. Okami via split decision.
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