UFC 104 Preview and Predictions-Main Card
Spencer Fisher vs. Joe Stevenson: Stevenson was once the #1 contender for the lightweight title. After getting his title shot against the champion B.J. Penn and losing in convincing fashion, Stevenson went on a slide. He defeated Gleison Tibau in his next contest, but then lost to Kenny Florian in the first round and followed that up with a decision loss to Diego Sanchez at UFC 95. He avoided his third straight loss by defeating Nate Diaz by decision at The Ultimate Fighter Season 9 finale. He realized a change needed to be made with his training, and went to train with Greg Jackson and his camp. Fisher has been a tough competitor in his UFC career, going 8-3 with wins over Thiago Alves, Matt Wiman, Jeremy Stephens and most recently, Caol Uno at UFC 99. He’s never quite gotten to the top of the lightweight division, but a win here could get him closer to that position. Fisher is a solid striker and has decent Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills, though he struggles with top flight wrestlers. I’m expecting Stevenson to exploit that weakness in this contest. Much like his fight against Nate Diaz, I’m expecting Stevenson to get top position and utilize it to wear down his opponent. He’ll likely be at a disadvantage while standing, so the sooner that Stevenson can get the fight to the ground the better off he will be. Stevenson by unanimous decision.
Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida: Johnson is one of the rising stars in the UFC’s welterweight division, but he faces a stern test against Yoshida in this one. Johnson is a dynamic striker who also boasts a strong wrestling pedigree. He’s gone 4-2 so far in the welterweight division, though he hasn’t fought anyone at the level of Yoshida. Johnson is coming off a knee injury that prevented him from fighting Matt Brown on The Ultimate Fighter season 9 finale, and the weight cut for this fight went horribly for him as well. He ended up weighing in six pounds over the 170lb limit, so this fight will be a catchweight contest. Yoshida was on the receiving end of a highlight reel knockout from the hands of Josh Koscheck in his second UFC fight, but to think that Yoshida isn’t worthy of being in the Octagon with Johnson would be a mistake. He’s 11-3 in his MMA career, and he has a strong Judo background. He’s been training with Greg Jackson in New Mexico. If Yoshida can close the distance and use his Judo to plant Johnson on his back, the fight could be his. However, I think getting close to Johnson could be a problem with Johnson’s huge reach advantage. The problematic weight cut could affect Johnson in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. I think that Yoshida will give Johnson a tougher fight than many think, but in the end, Johnson’s superior reach, striking and size will lead him to victory. Johnson via TKO in the 2nd.
Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer: Both guys are coming off close (and somewhat controversial) decision losses in their last fight, Tibau to Melvin Guillard, and Neer to Kurt Pellegrino. Tibau has found himself a home in the middle of the UFC’s lightweight division. He’s gone 5-4 in his UFC career, and has victories over Jeremy Stephens, Rich Clementi and losses to Nick Diaz, Tyson Griffin and Joe Stevenson. The American Top Team fighter is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and has utilized that to win nine fights by submission. Neer is 4-5 in the UFC, with wins over Joe Stevenson, Melvin Guillard and Mac Danzig during his career. Neer should have the advantage while standing, but Tibau’s takedowns and top game should present Neer with problems. Neer certainly has a chance, but I think Tibau will execute his gameplan to perfection. Tibau via unanimous decision.
Ben Rothwell vs. Cain Velasquez: The highly touted Velasquez needs a victory over Rothwell here to set himself up for a future title shot, while Rothwell is trying to get in the mix at the top of the UFC heavyweight division as well. Velasquez is coming off a victory against Cheick Kongo at UFC 99. In that contest, Kongo controlled much of the striking, but Velasquez was able to overcome the damage and control the fight with his wrestling and top control. Kongo could do very little to stop Velasquez’s takedowns and couldn’t get up once he was taken down. The two time All-American wrestler from Arizona State has a great wrestling background, though the rest of his game still needs some refining to compete with the top of the UFC’s heavyweight division. Rothwell is a MMA veteran with a 30-6 career record. This will be his UFC debut. He was scheduled to fight at Affliction’s August event, but when the company folded, he made the move to the UFC. He is a solid all-around fighter, but is most comfortable on his feet. During his career, he has beaten the likes of Roy Nelson, Krzysztof Soszynski, and Ricco Rodriguez. He was knocked out by Andrei Arlovski in the third round of their battle at Affliction: Banned in 2008. He should have the advantage when the fight is standing, but the question is how long can he keep the fight standing. He has struggled at times with his takedown defense, and if he struggles stopping Velasquez’s takedowns, it could be a short night. I think Rothwell will have his moments in this fight, and could put Velasquez in danger on a few occasions, but in the end, Velasquez’s wrestling will be the difference. Velasquez via unanimous decision.
Lyoto Machida vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: After his victory against Rashad Evans that earned him the UFC’s light heavyweight title, many proclaimed that this is now the “Machida era.” To continue that “era,” Machida will need to overcome a challenge from a fighter who was once proclaimed the top light heavyweight in the world in Shogun Rua. During his career in PRIDE, Rua defeated the likes of Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Ricardo Arona and Alistair Overeem. His combination of vicious striking, clinch game, and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills made him one of the most feared fighters in the world. Since entering the UFC, injuries and his cardio have slowed him down. Shogun’s coming off back-to-back victories over Mark Coleman and Chuck Liddell, but both of those guys are nearing the ends of their careers. His aggressive style could put him in danger against the pinpoint accuracy and the patient nature of Machida’s game. Machida is undefeated in his MMA career, and has gone 7-0 in his UFC career. He’s beaten the likes of B.J. Penn, Rich Franklin, Stephan Bonnar, Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva and Rashad Evans during his career, a pretty impressive list. His Karate style gives opponents fits, and he also boasts Sumo and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills that have gone largely untested. I think Shogun could give Machida some problems in this fight. If he can close the distance and get the fight to the ground, Rua’s ground skills could help him control Machida. However, if he comes in too aggressive, Machida could end his night very early. I think it’ll be a tougher contest than some think, but eventually Machida is just too tough. Machida via TKO in the 4th.
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