UFC 103: Franklin vs. Belfort Preview and Predictions
Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca: Both fighters are trying to climb back up the lightweight ladder. Franca has been there before, losing a title shot to Sean Sherk by unanimous decision back at UFC 73. He’s 6-4 in his UFC career, and last fought at UFC 90, defeating Marcus Aurelio by unanimous decision. He was scheduled to fight Joe Lauzon back in February, but tore the ACL in his right knee during training and had to pull out. Franca is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and has 11 submissions in his 19 career victories. The Xtreme Couture trained Griffin focuses primarily on an agressive wrestling style, though his standup game has also improved significantly. He beat Rafael Dos Anjos by unanimous decision back in April in his last fight. Griffin is 13-2 in his MMA career, and sports a 6-2 UFC record. He was also the first fighter to beat Urijah Faber, doing so in 2005. I expect Griffin to use his explosive style to control the fight with Franca. Griffin’s top game is good enough to fend off submissions from Franca on the bottom, and I think he’ll have a slight edge on the feet too. No matter where this fight goes, I think Griffin will have a slight advantage. I expect a fast-paced, exciting fight to open up the televised portion of the card, and a Griffin victory. Griffin via unanimous decision.
Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg: This fight marks Trigg’s return to the UFC after a four-year hiatus. He twice fought Matt Hughes for the UFC welterweight title, but was choked out both times. In his previous run in the UFC, Trigg went 2-3, also losing to Georges St. Pierre. Despite being a wrestler himself, Trigg struggled with some of the better wrestlers he faced during his career. He’s 19-6 overall in his career. Koscheck certainly fits the desciption of a dominant wrestler. He was a four-time Division 1 All-American while wrestling for Edinboro College of Pennsylvania, and won the 2001 National Championship in the 174 pound division. He was part of the original cast of The Ultimate Fighter, and since the show he’s gone an impressive 10-5 in the UFC. In an effort to round out his game, he has possibly fallen in love too much with his striking. He’s certainly becoming an effective force standing, but in doing so has almost forgotten about the fantastic wrestling base he has. His last fight was a loss to Paulo Thiago at UFC 95. In that fight he was controlling the standup for much of the first round before being caught by a big Thiago punch that ended the fight. I expect Koscheck to go back to some of his wrestling roots in this contest. I don’t think Trigg will fare any better with dominant wrestlers this time around the UFC than he did in his first go around. I think Koscheck is simply a better at this point in his career, and should handle Trigg rather easily. Koscheck via TKO in the 2nd.
Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley: Daley is a late replacement for Mike Swick, who suffered a concussion during training and had to pull out of this fight. Swick vs. Kampmann was going to determine Georges St. Pierre’s next title challenger, and it is expected that Kampmann will still get a shot at GSP with a victory. Daley was already scheduled to face Brian Foster on the same card, so he will be in shape for this fight. He will be making his UFC debut, and has a career MMA record of 21-8-2. He’s primarily known as a striker, and has had difficulty with solid ground fighters in the past. Of his 21 career wins, 16 have come by KO/TKO. Kampmann sports an impressive 15-2 career record, and has gone 6-1 in his 7 career UFC fights. His only loss in his UFC career was to Nate Marquardt at UFC 88. After that fight, Kampmann dropped down to the welterweight division, and looked solid in a victory over Carlos Condit at UFC Fight Night 18 in April. He is a former Danish Thai Boxing champion, and has solid Jiu Jitsu skills as well.Kampmann has shown a suspect chin at times however. I expect Kampmann to come in with a game plan of striking just enough to keep Daley off balance, then using takedowns and his ground game to control the fight. His ground skills looked very good against Condit, and Daley is nowhere near as good as Condit on the ground. Daley certainly has a puncher’s chance, but I think Kampmann will pull out the victory. Kampmann via submission in the 2nd.
Junior Dos Santos vs. Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic: Dos Santos splashed on the UFC scene with a brutal knockout of the heavily favored Fabricio Werdum back at UFC 90 in Chicago. He followed up that performance a TKO win over Stefan Struve that took under a minute at UFC 95. His career MMA record is 8-1. He trains with the Nogueira brothers and Anderson Silva at Black House. Dos Santos has great striking skills, but they will be put to the test by Cro Cop. Cro Cop was once one of the most feared strikers in all of MMA. He’s 25-6 in his MMA career, and beat fighters such as Josh Barnett (three times) and Wanderlei Silva during his run in PRIDE. When he entered the UFC for the first time in 2007, he looked like a different fighter. He overwhelmed Eddie Sanchez in his UFC debut, then was brutally knocked out with a head kick from Gabriel Gonzaga, and followed that with a decision loss to Cheick Kongo. Mirko left the UFC and went 2-0-1 (the No Contest was due to low blows from Alistair Overeem) in Japan. He returned to the UFC and beat Mostapha Al-Turk at UFC 99. He still didn’t look like the Cro Cop of old in that fight however. I think Cro Cop’s long career and numerous injuries have taken their toll on him. I look at this fight as a chance to build up Dos Santos by having him beat a solid “name” fighter. If Cro Cop can regain some of his past explosiveness he definitely has a chance, but I don’t see it happening against the ultra-talented Dos Santos. Junior Dos Santos via TKO in the 1st.
Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort: In this catch weight fight at 195 lbs, Belfort will be making his UFC return in this fight after a four-year abscence. He was once one of the most feared fighters in the UFC, going 7-4 in his first UFC run. He had lightening quick hands and was a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though he didn’t utilize his ground game as much as maybe he should have. After leaving the UFC, Belfort fought for Strikeforce, Affliction and PRIDE. He last fought at Affliction: Day of Reckoning, impressively knocking out Matt Lindland in under a minute back in January. Franklin has headlined two shows already this year, losing to Dan Henderson in a close split-decision at UFC 93, and beating Wanderlei Silva in a unanimous decision at UFC 99. Franklin is a very solid all-around fighter, combining good punches and kicks with a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. In the past few years, Franklin has become a much better defensive wrestler as well, and he held his own with Henderson on the ground back in January. Belfort does have the potential to overwhelm Franklin with his speed, but I think the longer that the fight goes, Franklin will begin to impose his will on Belfort. Belfort has the ability to end the fight early, but I’m banking on this fight going to a decision. If it does, Franklin will get the nod. Franklin via unanimous decision.
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