UFC 102- Main Card Picks
Brandon Vera vs. Krzysztof Soszynski: Vera is coming off a dominating victory over Mike Patt at UFC 96, and is trying to take his spot back amongst the UFC elite. Prior to the win over Patt, Vera had lost three of his last four fights, looking much slower and hesitant than he had looked in the past. At UFC 96, Vera finally looked as if he had gotten the weight cut to the light heavyweight class perfected and looked like he had his confidence back as well. After a win over Frank Mir at UFC 65, Vera was thought to be the next great heavyweight contender. However, a contract dispute kept him out of action for nearly a full year, and he was beaten by Tim Sylvia upon his return. A controversial stoppage loss to Fabricio Werdum followed, and Vera decided he needed to move down to the light heavyweight class. He defeated Reese Andy in a very lethargic performance at UFC Fight Night 14, and then was beaten by Keith Jardine by decision at UFC 89 prior to the win over Patt. Vera is a very well-rounded fighter, with excellent Muay Thai skills to go along with solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and wrestling. The main question with him has always been his focus, and it seems as if he’s back on track. Soszynski is on a tear in the UFC, winning his past three fights over Shane Primm, Brian Stann and Andre Gusmao. He was a contestant on season 8 of The Ultimate Fighter, but lost in the semifinals. He’s been fighting professionally since 2003, amassing a 18-8 record. He fights with Team Quest and is solid on the ground and striking. I don’t think Soszynski’s quite good enough to hang with a focused Vera however. I expect Vera to come out and use his Muay Thai and striking advantage to keep Soszynski at a distance before he finishes him off in the 2nd. Vera via TKO in the 2nd.
Demian Maia vs. Nate Marquardt: This is the fight I’m most looking forward to tomorrow evening. Maia is an absolute world-class Brazilian Jiu Jitsu artist, and has used those skills to start his MMA career 10-0. He’s 5-0 in the UFC, beating Ryan Jensen, Ed Herman, Jason MacDonald, Nate Quarry and Chael Sonnen, earning four “Submission of the Night” awards along the way. His standup skills haven’t really been tested, but he hasn’t had to rely on them up to this point. Marquardt is 28-8-2 in his career, and is 6-2 in his UFC career. He fought Anderson Silva for the middleweight title at UFC 73, but lost in the 1st round. He is looking to climb back up to the top of the middleweight division to get another shot at Silva. Marquardt is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but isn’t near the level of Maia. However, Marquardt is much more well-rounded and has more weapons at his disposal. This is a tough fight to call. Maia is on a roll, and if he gets his opponents to the canvas, it’s usually over in the blink of an eye. However, Maia did struggle somewhat against Jason MacDonald. MacDonald hung tough, fighting off multiple submission attempts before finally losing in the third round. Marquardt is a much better fighter than MacDonald, and is also much better on the ground. Conditioning has also been an issue for Maia before. He was winded in the 2nd round of his fight with Ed Herman before he ended up submitting him. He’s never faced a guy with the strength advantage that Marquardt will have tomorrow night. Marquardt will also have an advantage in the striking department. I’m going with Marquart in this one. He is just good enough on the ground to be able to survive if the fight hits the ground, and he’s better than Maia in all other aspects. I think there may be a close call in round one, but if Marquardt makes it to round two, the fight is his. Marquardt via TKO in the 2nd.
Chris Leben vs. Jake Rosholt: Leben is trying to get back in the good graces of the UFC following his suspension for testing positive for steriods after his loss to Michael Bisping at UFC 89. He’s 18-5 overall in his MMA career, and sports an 8-4 UFC record. He is known primarily for his striking and his powerful left hand, but Leben has also worked hard to improve his ground game. He’s never going to be mistaken for Demian Maia on the ground, but he’s at least servicable now. Rosholt was one of the most decorated collegiate wrestlers of all-time, winning three NCAA division I championships while he was at Oklahoma State. His MMA career is still in it’s early stages, but he has managed to go 5-1 so far. He lost his first fight in the UFC to Dan Miller at UFC Fight Night 17 earlier this year, and this is his first fight since. Rosholt was beaten just over a minute into the fight as Miller caught him in a guillotine as he shot for a takedown. It was a rookie mistake, and one that Rosholt needs to work hard on overcoming. Prior to that loss, Rosholt was getting outclassed on his feet by Nissan Osterneck at WEC 36 before he caught Osterneck with a head kick and finished the fight. If Rosholt was having trouble with Osterneck in the striking department, he’s going to have huge problems with Leben. I still think that Rosholt has a bright future, but he’s not ready for someone of Leben’s caliber in the striking department yet. Rosholt was hurt by the removal of the middleweight class in the WEC. He could have really used the time to gain experience by fighting lesser opponents. Leben won’t have mercy on him in this one though. Leben via TKO in the 1st.
Thiago Silva vs. Keith Jardine: This is a battle between two guys on the fringe of the light heavyweight elite. Silva last fought current UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida at UFC 94, and was outclassed in every department before being knocked out right at the end of the 1st round. That’s nothing to be ashamed of though, as Machida hasn’t dropped a fight yet in his MMA career. Silva is 13-1 in his MMA career and 4-1 in the UFC. He trains with American Top Team and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though he often finds himself in striking matches instead. He is a solid striker, but his aggressiveness sometimes gets him into trouble. Jardine is coming off a close decision loss to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 96 and is 14-5 in his MMA career. His unorthodox style gives many fighters fits, and he’s used that advantage to beat fighters like Chuck Liddell and Forrest Griffin during his UFC career. He’s got an underrated wrestling game and does a good job of stuffing takedowns as well. He trains with Greg Jackson in New Mexico, and brings the experience of fighting with some of the best fighters in the world everyday at training camp with him to the Octagon. I think Silva will try to overwhelm Jardine early. That strategy has been successful against Jardine before as Wanderlei Silva and Houston Alexander both beat Jardine early in the first round. However, I think Jardine will expect Silva to come out fast and will use movement and leg kicks to try to keep Silva away. I think Jardine can win a striking contest with Silva, which is what I expect this fight to wind up being. It could wind up being a close decision. Jardine via split decision.
Randy Couture vs. Antonio Nogueira: The 46 year-old Couture is coming off a 2nd round TKO loss to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91, although his performance wasn’t as bad as that simple sentence would indicate. Lesnar did have a little trouble controlling Couture in the 1st round, and was cut by Randy in the 2nd. However, as Lesnar has done frequently during his UFC career, he eventually overwhelmed Couture with his power in the 2nd round. Couture is 16-9 in his career, and has fought some of the best the sport has had to offer. The same can be said for the 31-5 Nogueira, the former PRIDE and UFC heavyweight champion of the world. He last fought at UFC 92, losing the interim title to Frank Mir in a shocking 2nd round TKO. Nogueira says he was bothered by an injured knee and a staph infection, though he doesn’t use it as an excuse. I believe what Nogueira has to say, especially after today’s weigh-ins. Nogueira weighed in for UFC 92 at 247 pounds, far above his normal weight. At today’s weigh-ins, he came in at 231 pounds and looks to be in phenominal shape. Nogueira is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and 19 of his 31 career wins have come via submission. He has taken a lot of punishment during his career, and fights much older than his 33 years of age would otherwise indicate. Do I think he’s washed up? No. Do I think he can still hang with the top heavyweights in the UFC? I’m not sure.
Couture is 46 years old, but is still in amazing condition. He came in today at 220 pounds and should have a quickness advantage over Nogueira. His main strengths are his wrestling and his superior clinch game and dirty boxing. He also uses the cage better than anyone I have ever seen. I think Randy will be able to utilize his wrestling to keep this fight standing as much as possible. He’s not a great striker by any means, but I think he’ll be able to dictate where the fight takes place. I’m expecting Randy to get Nogueira up against the cage as often as possible, and will try to wear him down. I think the effects of the clinch game and dirty boxing will give Couture the advantage in the 2nd and 3rd rounds, enabling Couture to win a decision. Nogueira is still very dangerous, and can pull off a submission at any time. I just think that tomorrow will be all Randy. I would have loved to have seen this fight five years ago, but it should still be a great contest tomorrow. Couture via unanimous decision.
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