UFC 101 predictions: Main Card

August 07, 2009 | Tim | Comments 0

MMA Record: 150-89 (63%)

Josh Neer vs. Kurt Pellegrino: Neer is coming off two great fights in a row, a win over Mac Danzig at UFC Fight Night 17 and a split-decision loss to Nate Diaz at UFC Fight Night 15. His UFC record stands at an even 4-4, while his overall MMA record is 25-7-1. Pellegrino is coming off two straight victories including a submission victory over Rob Emerson in his last fight at UFC Fight Night 17. The victory moved his UFC record to 5-3 and his MMA record to 13-4. Neer is hoping for a standup fight, as he has mentioned that he’s excited to fight someone who won’t run away like his past opponents. If this fight turns into a kickboxing match, Neer should have the advantage. Neer is three inches taller and will have the reach advantage as well. However, if the fight hits the ground, Pellegrino should be the one with the advantage. Neer’s submission defense has been a weak spot of his before, and Pellegrino’s strength is his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He’s a black belt and has trained under Renzo Gracie, Ricardo Almeida and Hermes Franca. Neer was able to survive against Nate Diaz, but the majority of that fight was spent standing. Neer’s offensive BJJ seems to be better than his defensive BJJ. However, I think that Neer can use his striking advantage and wrestling skills to keep the fight standing for the most part. Pellegrino’s a tough fighter, but I think Neer will get the better of him here. Neer via TKO in the 2nd.

Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida: Grove’s career in the UFC was on life support before back-to-back wins over Evan Tanner (Ultimate Fighter 7 Finale) and Jason Day (UFC 96). Prior to those victories, Grove was in the midst of a two fight losing streak. He has stated that he has become much more focused on his MMA career since those two straight losses, and his last two performances have shown his improvement. He’s a dangerous Muay Thai striker and uses his tremendous size and reach advantage to beat his opponents standing. He has been criticized for having a weak chin, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem against Almeida. Almeida is a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Renzo Gracie, and is coming off a unanimous decision win over Matt Horwich at UFC Fight Night 18. He struggled in a split-decision loss to Patrick Cote in a very uneventful fight at UFC 86. Almeida is a decent striker, but doesn’t possess much in terms of KO power. His striking is often limited to leg kicks, which he does quite well, but Grove is the better striker by far. Grove only has one submission loss in his MMA career, and I think he’ll use his size and reach advantage on his feet to keep himself out of submission situations on the ground in this one as well. Grove via TKO in the 2nd.

Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks: Sadollah is finally making his first appearance in the octagon following his win over C.B. Dollaway to win season seven of “The Ultimate Fighter.” He was scheduled to face Nick Catone at UFC 91 but had to withdraw due to a staph infection in his leg. The fight was rescheduled for UFC Fight Night 17, but he was again forced to withdraw from the fight, this time with a broken clavicle. His win over Dollaway at the Ultimate Finale was his first professional fight. He has a 4-0 amateur record prior to his stint on “The Ultimate Fighter.” His strength on the show was his Muay Thai striking, though he was able to submit Dollaway twice with armbars. He’s been training at Xtreme Couture, so I’m sure he’s improved on all aspects of his game since his appearance on the show. Hendricks is undefeated in his MMA career, amassing a 5-0 record fighting in smaller promotions as well as the WEC. His strength is his wrestling. He was a two-time NCAA Division I wrestling champion at Oklahoma State, and also finished as the runner-up in his senior season. There’s no secret as to what he’s going to try and do in this fight. He wants to utilize his wrestling advantage to take Sadollah down and use some ground and pound to either finish the fight or keep it on the ground. I’m not sure if Sadollah’s striking is good enough to keep Hendricks from using his wrestling advantage. Sadollah will have a slight height advantage, but Hendricks should have the strength advantage. It’s hard to tell exactly how much Sadollah has improved since we haven’t seen him in so long, but I think Hendricks should have the advantage in this fight. I think he’ll use his wrestling to control the fight and grind out a decision win. Hendricks via unanimous decision.

Anderson Silva vs. Forrest Griffin: After two lackluster victories (partially his opponent’s fault as well) to retain his middleweight title, the UFC decided to send Silva back up to the light heavyweight division against one of the most popular fighters in the organization, Forrest Griffin. Silva has competed once before in the UFC’s light heavyweight division and defeated James Irvin via TKO in just over a minute. Silva walks around well over the 205 pound limit for light heavyweight, though he’s nowhere near as big as Griffin. Griffin is coming off a loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 92 where he also lost his light heavyweight title. Griffin is one of the biggest fighters in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. He routinely walks around at about 235-240 pounds before cutting weight for fights. He is a solid all-around fighter, but doesn’t really stand out in any one area besides heart. His striking is solid, though he doesn’t possess true knockout power. He usually uses his footwork, leg kicks and jabs to keep his opponents off-balance. There shouldn’t be a reach advantage for anyone in this fight, as Griffin is about an inch taller than Silva but usually measures in around 77 inches, just like Silva. Griffins certainly has the strength advantage, though I don’t think it will matter much in this one.

I’m expecting that Silva will come into this fight to try and make a statement. I don’t think he liked the criticism he’s received from his past two fights, and will try to come out a little more aggressively than normal. I don’t expect Griffin to wilt easily though. He was dropped by a much stronger man in Quentin “Rampage” Jackson, and was able to recover and eventually win the fight. If the fight hits the ground, Silva should have the advantage. Griffin is pretty solid there, but Silva is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Griffin may have the advantage in the wrestling game though. I only expect Griffin to utilize his wrestling to score points with takedowns when he feels the opportunity. I don’t think he’ll spend all that much time looking for takedowns. I simply think that Silva has more ways to finish fights than does Griffin. Griffin doesn’t have the knockout power to really threaten Silva standing, and it’s very unlikely that he can submit Silva either. His only avenue of victory appears to kick, jab, and wrestle his way to a decision victory. I actually think that Griffin has a better chance than many are giving him. He has tremendous heart and will give Silva all he can handle, but in the end, I think Silva is just the better fighter. Silva via TKO in the 3rd.

B.J. Penn vs. Kenny Florian: The main event of UFC 101 is for the lightweight championship. Penn is coming off a destruction at the hands of Georges St. Pierre at UFC 94 in a welterweight title fight. Prior to that loss, Penn had won his past three fights over Jens Pulver, Joe Stevenson and Sean Sherk in dominating fashion. This is Florian’s second chance at the lightweight title. He lost in his first opportunity to titleholder Sean Sherk at UFC 64, but has since won six fights in a row to earn his second title shot. He is coming off a dominating first round stoppage of Joe Stevenson at UFC 91.

Penn is one of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighters in the UFC. He won the World Jiu Jitsu championship in 2000 becoming the first non-Brazilian to win the black belt division. His BJJ skills were non-existent in the loss to St. Pierre, but he had few opportunities due to St. Pierre’s dominating wrestling. In his recent fights, Penn has relied more on his striking than anything else. He has some of the heaviest hands in the lightweight division and also has quick hands. His gas tank has been one of his biggest weaknesses in his losses, but he seemed to come into his last title defense against Sherk in very good shape. Florian is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and has really improved his striking under the guidance of Mark Dellagrotte. He should pose a serious threat to Penn, as they have similar strengths. Everything Florian does well, I think Penn does slightly better. He’s got heavier hands and even though they are both black belts in BJJ, Penn is better on the ground. Will Penn come into this fight in great shape, focused and aggressive because of the disappoinment in his loss to GSP? That’s the main question here. I think that Florian can pull off the upset in this one. The longer the fight goes, the better the chance that Florian wins. I think Penn may still be going through a post-GSP hangover, and I’m going with Florian via unanimous decision.

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UFC 101 predictions: Main Card

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