UFC 100 Main Card Predictions

July 11, 2009 | Tim | Comments 1

MMA Record: 144-84 (63%)

Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Alan Belcher: Akiyama makes his debut in the UFC after a successful career in Japan where he compiled a 12-1 record with two no contests. He comes from a Judo background, but is also adept on his feet. He’s got good takedowns and is well versed in submissions as well. Belcher is on a hot streak in the UFC, winning four of his past five fights. He beat Denis Kang in his last fight at UFC 93 in an upset. Belcher is a very talented kickboxer, and he will come in with a size and reach advantage over Akiyama. However, while he has improved his ground skills since his entrance into the UFC, he isn’t at Akiyama’s level yet. If Akiyama is smart, he’ll utilize his takedowns and his ground game. He can stand and bang with Belcher for awhile, but it’s not something he’ll want to do the entire fight. It will probably be a first round slugfest, but I’m expecting Akiyama’s ground game to take over in the 2nd. Akiyama via submission in the 2nd.

Jon Fitch vs. Paulo Thiago: Fitch is trying to climb back up the welterweight ladder, and to do so he’ll have to beat a guy who knocked out Josh Koscheck, one of Fitch’s teammates at A.K.A. Thiago is in his second UFC fight, and was being dominated on his feet against Koscheck before landing the uppercut that ended the fight. Thiago’s strengths are in his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and his ground game, so don’t expect a standup war with Fitch. Fitch wrestled collegiately at Purdue, and is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. His standup game let him down against Georges St. Pierre at UFC 87, but he rebounded to beat Akihiro Gono by unanimous decision at UFC 94. I don’t think that Thiago stands much of a chance in this one. I think Fitch is going to look for an early takedown and will utilize his wrestling and ground ‘n’ pound to put Thiago away early. Fitch via TKO in the 1st.

Dan Henderson vs. Michael Bisping: This is a battle of the coaches of “The Ultimate Fighter: U.S. vs. U.K.” Henderson comes from a great wrestling base. He was a Division I wrestler at Arizona State and Cal State Fullerton University, and then was a member of the U.S. Olympic Greco-Roman team in 1992 and 1996. He has great power in his right hand, and has never been knocked out in a MMA fight. He was the former Middleweight and Light Heavyweight champion in PRIDE. Henderson’s last fight was a close, split-decision victory over Rich Franklin at UFC 93. Bisping is the face of the UFC in Europe. He is 17-1 in his MMA career (7-1 UFC) with his only loss coming to Rashad Evans at UFC 78. After that fight Bisping dropped down to middleweight. He is a solid all-around fighter. He doesn’t have great power in his hands, but his footwork is good and he utilizes his hand speed and decent Muay Thai skills well. He’s still developing his wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills, but he has made progress since joining the UFC. This fight could go a few different ways. Henderson could do what he did against Franklin and mix it up in some exchanges, but utilize his wrestling skills to keep the fight on the ground when he needs to. However, this could also turn into a kickboxing contest, which I think would favor Bisping. Henderson definitely has more power, but he is sloppy and slow footed. Bisping could use his footwork and kicks to keep himself out of Henderson’s range for much of the fight. I have a hard time believing that Bisping will be able to succeed in areas where Rich Franklin couldn’t such as takedown defense, but for some reason I have a hunch that Bisping will take this one. Why? I really don’t know. Bisping via unanimous decison.

Thiago Alves vs. Georges St. Pierre: Alves has already won one small battle…he actually made weight. Now he has to accomplish an even harder task, taking the welterweight title from Georges St. Pierre. Alves is coming off a unanimous decision thrashing of Josh Koscheck at UFC 90. In that fight he showed his typical explosive striking, but also improved takedown defense, something that will be crucial against GSP. St. Pierre is coming off an absolute thorough beating of B.J. Penn at UFC 94 in which he controlled all aspects of the fight. His wresting is probably the best in all of MMA, and he mixes in a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu as well as solid striking skills. Some question his chin after being TKO’d by Matt Serra at UFC 69, but the initial damage from that fight came from a punch to the back of his head. Sure he got knocked down and eventually knocked out, but I don’t think it says that he has a weak chin. Alves is one of the most dynamic strikers in the UFC, utilizing his Muay Thai skills to perfection. He is still improving his wrestling and Jiu Jitsu skills as well. I expect that St. Pierre will spend very little time trying to exchange with the dangerous Alves. He’s going to take the fight to the ground as quickly as possible, and I’m not sure that Alves ground skills are good enough to stop GSP from doing basically whatever he wants. There is a chance that Alves connects early and gets St. Pierre in trouble, but I think there’s a much better chance that St. Pierre’s trainer Greg Jackson has come up with a gameplan that involves very little besides takedowns, and ground ‘n’ pound. The longer the fight goes, the more it probably favors GSP, but I really don’t think it’ll last that long anyway. St. Pierre via TKO in the 2nd.

Frank Mir vs. Brock Lesnar: The main event of UFC 100 is a rematch from UFC 81, only this time the undisputed heavyweight championship is on the line. In the first contest, Mir was in trouble early, but thanks to a questionable stand up from referree Steve Mazzagatti and a rookie mistake from Lesnar that Mir capitalized on, he was able to submit Lesnar with a kneebar. Mir looked great in his last fight, a win over Antonio Nogueira at UFC 92, but it’s hard to judge exactly how good Mir was because Nogueira looked completely out of it from the opening bell in that fight. Lesnar’s last fight was his title winning fight against Randy Couture at UFC 91. Lesnar and Couture had a pretty close first round, but Lesnar was able to connect on a big right hook that knocked Couture down, and then he finished him off with a flurry of hammerfists to claim the title.

Mir looks to be in the best shape of his career. At UFC 81, he weighed in at 255 pounds. He looked leaner at UFC 92, and weighed in at 251 pounds. Yesterday, Mir stepped to the scale and weighed in at 245 pounds. He looks ripped and appears to have finally taken his conditioning seriously in preparation for this five round fight. Lesnar weighed in at his customary 265 pounds, and will likely be in the neighborhood of 280 pounds at fight time tonight. Lesnar’s gas tank looked ok in his three round decision over Heath Herring, but he did appear to be breathing pretty heavy at the end of the first round and into the second round against Couture. Since the fight at UFC 81, Lesnar has trained Brazilian Jiu Jitsu with Rodrigo “Comprido” Medeiros, and while I don’t expect Lesnar to beat Mir with a kneebar this time, I think he has shored up his submission defense considerably. Mir’s striking appeared to be improved when he beat Nogueira, but I think that was more because of Nogueira not being at 100% than it was about Mir’s improved stand up. Lesnar’s strking is underrated and if he connects with one of the right hands he connected with on Herring or Couture, it’ll be lights out for Mir. I think that the first round may be more of a stand up round than many are expecting, but I think by the time round number two comes around, Lesnar will begin to feel more comfortable, and then it will be time for some takedowns and ground ‘n’ pound. No Steve Mazzagatti to save Mir this time, and Lesnar will watch out for the kneebar. Lesnar via TKO in the 2nd.

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UFC 100 Main Card Predictions

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