Strikeforce: Nashville Preview and Predictions
Strikeforce will make it’s return to network television this Saturday for Strikeforce: Nashville. After a moderately successful debut on CBS, it will be interesting to see how the sophomore effort does on the network without the star power of top heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko.
Gilbert Melendez vs. Shinya Aoki: Gilbert Melendez will defend his Strikeforce lightweight title against the talented Japanese star Shinya Aoki, who will be making his U.S. debut. Melendez won the interim title by defeating Rodrigo Damm at Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Diaz in April of 2009. He defended that interim title in a TKO victory over Mitsuhiro Ishida at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg, and then unified the lightweight title by defeating Josh Thomson at Strikeforce: Evolution via unanimous decision. Melendez is 17-2 in his MMA career, with the only two losses coming against Ishida and Thomson, losses that he obviously avenged in recent months. Melendez is a solid wrestler and he is making gains in his striking. He still doesn’t possess one-punch knockout power, but he exhibited good jabs in his victory over Thomson. Aoki is one of the best grapplers in the sport, and has racked up an impressive 23-4 record, with 16 of those wins coming via submission. He has beaten the likes of Eddie Alvarez, Joachim Hansen and Caol Uno in his career, and has won six of his last seven fights. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and also in Judo. His lack of any sort of striking game is his main weakness, but he has been able to overcome that with his superior submission skills. One interesting side note in this fight is that Aoki will not be permitted to wear spandex pants during the fight. He has worn these pants for his fights in Japan, and some claim that it gives him help in his grappling. However, Aoki is likely going to wear spandex shorts that stop at his knee and knee braces below that which will give him much the same affect. I, for one, think he’s just as dangerous with or without the spandex pants, but sometimes fighters are thrown off by small psychological things. I think Melendez has a good chance to control the majority of the fight with his striking advantage, but all Aoki needs is a little opening to end the fight. I think Aoki will eventually find an opening. Aoki via submission in the 3rd.
Mo Lawal vs. Gegard Mousasi: This is a really compelling matchup. Lawal is one of the top prospects in the game and he’s getting a quick push to take on Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi. It probably would shock a lot of fans to know that Lawal is actually older than Mousasi by four years. At only 24 years of age, Mousasi is already one of the top light heavyweights in the sport, and he still has room to improve. Mousasi brings an impressive 28-2-1 record to the cage, and has scored victories over Hector Lombard, Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef, Jacare Souza and “Babalu” Sobral during his relatively short career. Mousasi is an excellent striker, and his ground game is ever improving. He utilized vicious ground n’ pound to finish off Sobral at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg to win the light heavyweight title. Lawal is one of the most accomplished amateur wrestlers currently in MMA. He finished 7th at the world championships in 2005, and was one of the top ranked amateur wrestlers in the world in 2007-2008. His chance at the Olympics ended at the 2008 Olympic trials, and it was after this that Lawal entered MMA. He’s gone 6-0 to start his career, and most recently KO’d Mike Whitehead at Strikeforce: Evolution. He’s obviously a talented wrestler, but his striking is impressive for someone who is relatively new to the sport. He not only possesses fight stopping knockout power, but he’s also improving technically. It’s entirely possible for Lawal to upset Mousasi in this contest. He has the advantage in the wrestling department, and his power is a threat at any time. However, it’s hard to pick against Mousasi’s talent and experience. I think if this fight took place in a year or two, Lawal may have the advantage. However, I just don’t think he’s quite ready for someone of Mousasi’s caliber at this point. Mousasi via TKO in the 2nd.
Dan Henderson vs. Jake Shields: Shields will be trying to defend his Strikeforce middleweight title against the former PRIDE and UFC standout, Dan Henderson. Henderson was signed after his contract expired with the UFC in December, and this will be his first fight for the organization. Shields won the vacant title by beating Jason “Mayhem” Miller at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers in a pretty boring affair. Shields was in trouble once in the closing stages of the third round when Miller locked in a rear naked choke, but Shields was saved by the bell. He went on to win the unanimous decision to win the title. Shields is 24-4-1 in his career and has fought mostly at welterweight. He’ll be at a disadvantage in size and strength in this fight. Shields is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and has a collegiate wrestling background. His main weakness is his striking, and that’s something that Henderson will look to exploit in this contest.
Henderson remains one of the top middleweights and light heavyweights in the world. His career record is 25-7 and he holds wins over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, “Babalu” Sobral, Renzo Gracie, Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva and Rich Franklin. His record in the UFC during his last stint was 3-2, but the two losses were to “Rampage” Jackson and Anderson Silva. His last fight in the UFC was a devastating knockout victory over Michael Bisping at UFC 100. Henderson was negotiating a new contract after that fight, and believed he deserved more money from the UFC after the win and a successful stint as a coach on the 9th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Dana White disagreed, and Henderson instead signed with Strikeforce. Just like in his return to the UFC, Henderson’s first fight in Strikeforce will be a title fight. Henderson began in MMA off of an amateur wrestling background. Henderson was a two-time Olympian in Greco-Roman wrestling for the United States prior to beginning his MMA career. With his wrestling base intact, Henderson began to turn his attention to his striking. While still not a very technical striker, he makes up for it with huge power in both hands. I really don’t see an avenue for Shields to win this fight. He’s at a size disadvantage, a striking disadvantage, and I don’t see him submitting Henderson either. I expect Henderson to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing long enough for him to land a knockout punch. Don’t be surprised if this one ends quickly. Henderson via TKO in the 2nd.
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- Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg analysis and predictions
- Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Sobral Preview and Predictions
- Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers Preview and Predictions
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