WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber Preview and Predictions
WEC 48 marks the organization’s first foray into the Pay-Per-View market. They will get the full UFC treatment on Saturday, complete with Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg on the call, Bruce Buffer doing the introductions, and Dana White handling the promotion. Beyond all that lies one of the best cards of the year on paper, featuring a hotly anticipated featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Urijah Faber.
Antonio Banuelos vs. Scott Jorgensen: This is a rematch from their close decision battle at WEC 41. In that matchup, Banuelos came away with a split-decision victory in one of the best fights of the year. Since then, Banuelos won a unanimous decision over Kenji Osawa at WEC 44, improving his record to 17-5 overall, while Jorgensen has won his past three fights over Noah Thomas, Takeya Mizugaki and Chad George. Jorgensen was an excellent collegiate wrestler, and utilizes it well in the cage. In recent fights, he’s improved his striking and his clinch game, things that will come in handy in this rematch. Banuelos trains with John Hackleman and utilized his striking very well in the first meeting between the two. He probably remains the better striker than Jorgensen, though I think the gap has closed significantly. His defensive wrestling was also solid, limiting Jorgensen’s takedowns and strong ground n’ pound. I think Banuelos will have much more difficulty in stopping Jorgensen’s shot in this contest. I think Jorgensen will come in with a different gameplan, and his skills have improved to where he can actually utilize it as well. Jorgensen via TKO in the 2nd.
Shane Roller vs. Anthony Njokuani: Pretty easy to describe this matchup: wrestler vs. striker. Roller was an excellent collegiate wrestler at Oklahoma State, and has used his strong wrestling background to rack up a 7-2 MMA record. Since entering the WEC, Roller has gone 4-1, with his only loss coming to current WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson. Three of those four victories have come via either guillotine or rear naked choke, which shows that he has been working on other parts of his game as well. However, his striking is nowhere near where it needs to be for Roller to compete with the absolute top fighters in the division. Njokuani is a fearsome striker. He destroyed a tough competitor in Chris Horodecki at WEC 45. He’s 3-1 in his WEC career, with his only loss also coming to Ben Henderson. He’s won three consecutive “Knockout of the Night’” honors and for good reason. His striking is accurate and powerful and his range makes him extremely dangerous from a distance. Njokuani will like to utilize that reach to keep Roller from getting in close, as Njokuani’s defensive wrestling is definitely an area he needs to work on. I just don’t see Roller being able to control Njokuani enough over three rounds to win a decision. Roller also likes to showcase his striking on occasion, and if he does that against Njokuani, it will end very quickly and very badly for him. His only hope is to land takedowns and hope that his top game is good enough to smother Njokuani over three rounds. I see Njokuani catching him eventually. When he does, it’s lights out. Njokuani via TKO in the 1st.
Mike Brown vs. Mavel Gamburyan: Brown will be looking to continue his climb back up the featherweight ladder after losing his title to Jose Aldo at WEC 44. In his first fight after the loss, Brown dominated an overmatched Anthony Morrison at WEC 46. He won that fight via rear naked choke under two minutes into the first round. In this fight, Brown will take on former UFC lightweight Manvel Gamburyan. Gamburyan dropped to the featherweight division and moved over to the WEC after losing two consecutive fights at UFC 87 and UFC 94. The move has proven successful, as Gamburyan has won his first two fights inside the WEC, including a decision victory over Leonard Garcia at WEC 44. Gamburyan is a Judo black belt, and is a solid wrestler. He utilizes a pretty good top game to grind out decisions over guys who aren’t really wrestlers, but he’ll have a hard time doing that against Brown. Gamburyan’s main weakness is his striking, and though Brown isn’t Jose Aldo in that department, he’s good enough to give Gamburyan many problems. He’s also a better wrestler than Gamburyan, and his overall ground game is better as well. I don’t think Gamburyan can win this fight. I just have a really hard time believing that he can do anything better than Brown in this matchup. Brown by unanimous decision.
Donald Cerrone vs. Ben Henderson: This is a rematch for the lightweight title. The two fought at WEC 43 in one of the best fights of the year, with Henderson winning the unanimous decision and ther interim lightweight title. Since then, Henderson unified the title by submitting Jamie Varner at WEC 46, while Cerrone submitted Ed Ratcliff at WEC 45. The first fight between the two was an entertaining and very close fight, and this one shapes up much the same way. Cerrone is the taller fighter, and utilizes his reach advantage in his striking game pretty well. He’s also very dangerous with submissions. His main weakness is his takedown defense, something that Henderson took advantage of in the first matchup. Henderson is improving in all areas of his game, but his striking remains his main weakness. I think Cerrone can take advantage of that fact much more than he did in the first matchup. The key for Cerrone is improvement in his takedown defense. I think part of it stems from the fact that he is very comfortable fighting off his back, but he needs to stuff a few more takedowns in the rematch. I picked Cerrone in the first matchup and I’m not changing that for the rematch. He can control the fight with his reach and his striking, and he is so dangerous on the ground as well that I just don’t see Henderson winning this fight. He’s proven me wrong once, but I don’t think he will again. Cerrone via submission in the 3rd.
Jose Aldo vs. Urijah Faber: It’s the past vs. the present in the main event of the evening. The former WEC featherweight champion and the face of the WEC, Urijah Faber, will take on the current featherweight title holder and one of the most exciting fighters in all of MMA in Jose Aldo. When Faber lost his title to Mike Brown at WEC 36, many people considered it a fluke. He was caught flush with a huge right hand after he came off the cage looking for a spinning elbow. Faber got the rematch with Brown at 41, and this time the fight went the distance with Brown winning again and retaining the title. Faber broke his right hand early in the fight and ended up throwing elbows for the majority of the contest. He rebounded to beat a very tough Raphael Assuncao at WEC 46 via submission. His MMA record stands at 23-3.
Aldo ran through his first four fights in the WEC in quick fashion, and everyone took notice when he KO’d Cub Swanson in only eight seconds at WEC 41. That lightning quick victory earned him the title shot against Mike Brown at WEC 44. Aldo went on to dominate the first round against Brown, and finished him in the 2nd, winning the title. Brown was basically never even competitive in the fight. Aldo’s excellent technical and quick striking battered Brown, and his takedown defense kept the fight standing. He’ll try to employ a similar gameplan against Faber.
Even though Brown beat Faber twice and Aldo beat Brown, MMAth doesn’t always work. I think Faber is a much tougher matchup for Aldo than Brown was. He’s much quicker, though not as quick as Aldo, and Faber is more explosive with his takedowns. Faber’s striking isn’t as technically strong as Brown’s, but he uses unique angles and sometimes reckless moves that have won him numerous fights. I just think Aldo is too much for anyone in the featherweight division right now. I haven’t even mentioned Aldo’s Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, which from all accounts, is pretty dangerous as well. I actually toyed with the idea that Faber could pull off the upset, but in the end, I just don’t see it happening. I think Faber will hang in there longer than many think, but eventually Aldo will take control. Aldo via TKO in the 3rd.
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Leonard Garcia over Chan Sung Jung via TKO in the 2nd
Anthony Pettis over Alex Karalexis via TKO in the 1st
Demetrious Johnson over Brad Pickett via unanimous decision
Chad Mendes over Anthony Morrison via unanimous decision
Takeya Mizugaki over Rani Yahya via TKO in the 2nd
Tyler Toner over Brandon Visher via TKO in the 1st
Photo Courtesy: Bloody Elbow
Popularity: 2% [?]
Report: James Toney vs. Randy Couture Possible for UFC 118
According to MMA Junkie, heavyweight boxer James “Lights Out” Toney may make his MMA debut against former UFC light heavyweight and heavyweight champion Randy “The Natural” Couture at UFC 118 in Boston. The bout is not yet official, but according to the website, it is likely to serve as either the main event or the co-main event on the card.
Toney signed with the UFC last month, and immediately after the signing, Couture made it known that he would like to have the first crack at the boxing champ. Couture likely sees the bout as a good money-making opportunity as he is reportedly paid a percentage of Pay-per-view sales. A Couture/Toney matchup to go along with other rumored matchups for the card, including a lightweight title rematch between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar, would mean a huge payday for Couture.
To a lesser extent, Couture may also feel like he is defending the sport in general, as Toney has done a lot of trash-talking both before and after he signed with the UFC.
Couture last fought at UFC 109, defeating Mark Coleman by submission. The win was his second consecutive victory since he moved down to the light heavyweight division. There has been no word on what weight class this fight would be contested in, though my guess would be heavyweight. Toney weighed in at 217 for his last boxing match (a win over Matthew Greer last September), so he could conceivably cut down to the 205 pound light heavyweight limit.
Toney has compiled a 72-6 professional record in boxing, and has held titles in the middleweight, super middleweight, cruiserweight and heavyweight divisions. For his MMA career, he has been training with Juanito Ibarra, best known in MMA circles as the former trainer to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Jackson and Ibarra split in 2008 after a falling out.
UFC 118 will take place on August 28th at TD Garden in Boston.
Popularity: 9% [?]
Strikeforce: Nashville Preview and Predictions
Strikeforce will make it’s return to network television this Saturday for Strikeforce: Nashville. After a moderately successful debut on CBS, it will be interesting to see how the sophomore effort does on the network without the star power of top heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko.
Gilbert Melendez vs. Shinya Aoki: Gilbert Melendez will defend his Strikeforce lightweight title against the talented Japanese star Shinya Aoki, who will be making his U.S. debut. Melendez won the interim title by defeating Rodrigo Damm at Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Diaz in April of 2009. He defended that interim title in a TKO victory over Mitsuhiro Ishida at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg, and then unified the lightweight title by defeating Josh Thomson at Strikeforce: Evolution via unanimous decision. Melendez is 17-2 in his MMA career, with the only two losses coming against Ishida and Thomson, losses that he obviously avenged in recent months. Melendez is a solid wrestler and he is making gains in his striking. He still doesn’t possess one-punch knockout power, but he exhibited good jabs in his victory over Thomson. Aoki is one of the best grapplers in the sport, and has racked up an impressive 23-4 record, with 16 of those wins coming via submission. He has beaten the likes of Eddie Alvarez, Joachim Hansen and Caol Uno in his career, and has won six of his last seven fights. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and also in Judo. His lack of any sort of striking game is his main weakness, but he has been able to overcome that with his superior submission skills. One interesting side note in this fight is that Aoki will not be permitted to wear spandex pants during the fight. He has worn these pants for his fights in Japan, and some claim that it gives him help in his grappling. However, Aoki is likely going to wear spandex shorts that stop at his knee and knee braces below that which will give him much the same affect. I, for one, think he’s just as dangerous with or without the spandex pants, but sometimes fighters are thrown off by small psychological things. I think Melendez has a good chance to control the majority of the fight with his striking advantage, but all Aoki needs is a little opening to end the fight. I think Aoki will eventually find an opening. Aoki via submission in the 3rd.
Mo Lawal vs. Gegard Mousasi: This is a really compelling matchup. Lawal is one of the top prospects in the game and he’s getting a quick push to take on Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi. It probably would shock a lot of fans to know that Lawal is actually older than Mousasi by four years. At only 24 years of age, Mousasi is already one of the top light heavyweights in the sport, and he still has room to improve. Mousasi brings an impressive 28-2-1 record to the cage, and has scored victories over Hector Lombard, Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef, Jacare Souza and “Babalu” Sobral during his relatively short career. Mousasi is an excellent striker, and his ground game is ever improving. He utilized vicious ground n’ pound to finish off Sobral at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg to win the light heavyweight title. Lawal is one of the most accomplished amateur wrestlers currently in MMA. He finished 7th at the world championships in 2005, and was one of the top ranked amateur wrestlers in the world in 2007-2008. His chance at the Olympics ended at the 2008 Olympic trials, and it was after this that Lawal entered MMA. He’s gone 6-0 to start his career, and most recently KO’d Mike Whitehead at Strikeforce: Evolution. He’s obviously a talented wrestler, but his striking is impressive for someone who is relatively new to the sport. He not only possesses fight stopping knockout power, but he’s also improving technically. It’s entirely possible for Lawal to upset Mousasi in this contest. He has the advantage in the wrestling department, and his power is a threat at any time. However, it’s hard to pick against Mousasi’s talent and experience. I think if this fight took place in a year or two, Lawal may have the advantage. However, I just don’t think he’s quite ready for someone of Mousasi’s caliber at this point. Mousasi via TKO in the 2nd.
Dan Henderson vs. Jake Shields: Shields will be trying to defend his Strikeforce middleweight title against the former PRIDE and UFC standout, Dan Henderson. Henderson was signed after his contract expired with the UFC in December, and this will be his first fight for the organization. Shields won the vacant title by beating Jason “Mayhem” Miller at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers in a pretty boring affair. Shields was in trouble once in the closing stages of the third round when Miller locked in a rear naked choke, but Shields was saved by the bell. He went on to win the unanimous decision to win the title. Shields is 24-4-1 in his career and has fought mostly at welterweight. He’ll be at a disadvantage in size and strength in this fight. Shields is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and has a collegiate wrestling background. His main weakness is his striking, and that’s something that Henderson will look to exploit in this contest.
Henderson remains one of the top middleweights and light heavyweights in the world. His career record is 25-7 and he holds wins over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, “Babalu” Sobral, Renzo Gracie, Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva and Rich Franklin. His record in the UFC during his last stint was 3-2, but the two losses were to “Rampage” Jackson and Anderson Silva. His last fight in the UFC was a devastating knockout victory over Michael Bisping at UFC 100. Henderson was negotiating a new contract after that fight, and believed he deserved more money from the UFC after the win and a successful stint as a coach on the 9th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Dana White disagreed, and Henderson instead signed with Strikeforce. Just like in his return to the UFC, Henderson’s first fight in Strikeforce will be a title fight. Henderson began in MMA off of an amateur wrestling background. Henderson was a two-time Olympian in Greco-Roman wrestling for the United States prior to beginning his MMA career. With his wrestling base intact, Henderson began to turn his attention to his striking. While still not a very technical striker, he makes up for it with huge power in both hands. I really don’t see an avenue for Shields to win this fight. He’s at a size disadvantage, a striking disadvantage, and I don’t see him submitting Henderson either. I expect Henderson to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing long enough for him to land a knockout punch. Don’t be surprised if this one ends quickly. Henderson via TKO in the 2nd.
Popularity: 2% [?]
UFC 112 Thoughts
I know I’m a bit late to the party on my UFC 112 post-fight thoughts, but I needed a little time to digest what I saw. It was definitely an interesting day/night of MMA.
Frankie Edgar was masterful in his performance against B.J. Penn. It’s unfortunate that the events of the main event will take a little away from Edgar’s victory. No, I really don’t think he won the fight, and yes, I think something wasn’t quite right with Penn. However, he got the decision and the record books will show he defeated the number one lightweight fighter of all time, and he is now the UFC lightweight champion.
What’s next for Edgar? Good question. I think Kenny Florian (who is currently battling a case of Staph infection) is the likely next challenger for the belt. He looked very impressive in wins over Clay Guida and Takanori Gomi since losing to Penn at UFC 101, and he’s marketable too. Gray Maynard is pushing for the fight, but I think Florian is the most likely choice. Some also think Penn should get an immediate rematch (much like “Shogun” Rua got after the close decision loss to Lyoto Machida), but I think a Penn/Maynard #1 contender’s match makes sense. I imagine Edgar would be the underdog no matter who he faces next, but being the underdog didn’t seem to affect him on Saturday.
The Hughes/Gracie fight didn’t do much for me. Hughes didn’t look himself either. Maybe it was something to do with jet lag or something, but Hughes and Penn both looked out of it. Hughes probably lost the first round against Renzo, but repeated leg kicks and fatigue finally did Gracie in late in the 3rd round. It’s tough to imagine Gracie fighting again in the UFC, but he said after the fight that he intended to do so. The fight certainly didn’t do much for Hughes either. I don’t know who the next fight for him would be. Perhaps a rematch with Serra? There really aren’t many compelling matchups for Hughes right now.
Mark Munoz weathered an early storm fromKendall Grove to get the 2nd round TKO victory. Grove was impressive in firing off multiple submission attempts in the first round, but was unable to finish. Munoz looked energized heading into the 2nd round, and once he had Grove on his back against the cage, was able to finish the fight. The fight won “Fight of the Night” honors, so both guys at least left Abu Dhabi with their wallets being a little more full.
Now, onto the main event. Anderson Silva somehow managed to look unbeatable, spectacular, asinine, and childish all in the course of 25 minutes. It was evident early on that Demian Maia posed little to no threat to the reigning middleweight champ, and Silva obviously knew that too. Starting in the 2nd round, Silva began to mock and berate the challenger, trying to get Maia to enter into exchanges. Maia was unwilling to do so, so much of the action for the next three rounds involved Silva pounding on the canvas or signaling for Maia to come forward. The fans in attendance were not pleased with Silva, and with Maia showing toughness and some late life in the 5th round with a still unwilling to engage Silva, the crowd turned in Maia’s favor. UFC president Dana White was quite upset with Silva and the fight in general, and left after the fourth round, not even sticking around to place the belt around the champ’s waist after the decision was read.
It’s quite obvious that Silva is bored with the challengers he’s getting at the middleweight division, so it’s up to Dana White to find him some challenging opponents. I’d be all for Silva making the permanent move up to light heavyweight where there are many interesting matchups, but with Silva and current champion Lyoto Machida unwilling to fight each other, there doesn’t seem to be much of a point to do that either. It seems that Silva will probably face opponents from each division, though it seems unlikely and nearly impossible for him to headline a card, unless it’s a fight against Georges St. Pierre or Brock Lesnar. Chael Sonnen or Vitor Belfort will likely face him next from the middleweight group, and though both would likely offer better challenges than Maia did, neither is a serious threat to take the title from Silva in my opinion. Since Silva has already beaten a former light heavyweight champion in Forrest Griffin, and the fact that the UFC probably doesn’t want to take away a serious championship contender by feeding him to Silva, a matchup with a heavyweight may very well be next for Silva. Fights with Frank Mir or Cain Velasquez would offer a serious challenge, and Iwould expect Silva to be excited for those matchups. However, with Velasquez likely to face the winner of the Shane Carwin/Brock Lesnar fight, Mir may be the logical matchup.
*Photo courtesy Yahoo Sports*
Popularity: 2% [?]
UFC 112 Preview and Predictions
UFC 112: Invincible gets its title because it features two of the greatest and most dominant champions in UFC history. Both lightweight champion B.J. Penn and middleweight champion Anderson Silva will enter the Octagon as prohibitive favorites to continue their reign atop their respective divisions. The card is also significant because it takes place in Abu Dhabi, marking the company’s first foray into the Middle East.
Kendall Grove vs. Mark Munoz: Grove was struggling with the takedowns and striking of Jake Rosholt at UFC 106 before he caught Rosholt in a triangle choke and finished him late in the first round. The win improved Grove’s UFC record to 6-3 and his overall record to 11-6. At 6′6, Grove usually has a significant reach advantage over most of his opponents, but never has really used it to his advantage as much as he should. He also sports a pretty weak chin, making him a little hesitant to get into heavy exchanges. However, Grove has established himself as a middle-tier UFC middleweight who is well-rounded enough to be competitive in most fights. Munoz was a highly decorated wrestler coming out of Oklahoma State, where he won the 2001 national championship. He’s 7-1 in his MMA career and is 2-1 in the UFC with wins coming over Ryan Jensen and Nick Catone. He lost his UFC debut to Mark Hamill after he was knocked out by a vicious head kick. Munoz trains at Black House with the Nogueira brothers and other top UFC stars, so he’s definitely getting the training he’ll need to compete at the highest level. I don’t think his striking is good enough to win exchanges over Grove, though he does possess enough power to drop Grove with a good shot. Munoz could probably take down Grove at will, but as he showed against Rosholt, Grove is dangerous off his back as well. It’s a tough fight to pick because Munoz definitely has the ability to take Grove down repeatedly and grind out a decision. However, I’m following my gut and picking Grove. Grove has the ability to win the striking battle and can at least threaten off the floor. Grove via TKO in the 2nd.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Terry Etim: After starting his UFC career with two straight defeats, dos Anjos has rebounded to win his past two fights over Kyle Bradley and Rob Emerson. He’s 12-4 in his MMA career. Dos Anjos has shown good wrestling ability and also solid striking, especially in the win over Emerson. Etim is on an impressive four-fight winning streak, most recently beating Shannon Gugerty at UFC 105 via submission. Etim has shown both good striking as well as a good submissions in racking up a 14-2 career record. This is a pretty evenly matched fight, though I think Etim’s striking ability will win out. Etim via unanimous decision.
Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie: At UFC 60, Matt Hughes took on UFC legend Royce Gracie in a fight everyone knew wouldn’t be competitive. Hughes dispatched of Gracie in the first round. Now, almost four years later, Hughes will take on another Gracie, this time Royce’s cousin Renzo. Hughes has clearly lost a step from when he was the dominant welterweight champion of the world. Between November, 2001- September, 2006, Hughes won the welterweight title twice, defended the belt seven times and went 12-1 in the Octagon with the lone loss coming to B.J. Penn. After losing his title to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 65, Hughes has gone 2-2, with wins over Chris Lytle and Matt Serra and losses to GSP and Thiago Alves. He’s no longer at the top of the welterweight division, but he still has the ability to beat many other welterweights in the UFC. Gracie is 43 years old and hasn’t fought a MMA fight in over three years. Overall, Gracie is 13-6 in his MMA career, with wins over Frank Shamrock, Carlos Newton, and Pat Miletech. As with all the Gracie’s, Renzo’s main strength is his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but the rest of his game has numerous holes. His striking and takedown defense aren’t good enough to beat top level athletes in the UFC today. I don’t think Hughes will really have much of a problem in this one unless he completely overlooked this fight. He should be able to takedown Gracie at will, and will actually probably have the advantage in the sriking department too. I don’t think Gracie will pose much of a threat to Hughes off his back either. Hughes will move to 2-0 over the Gracie clan after this one. Hughes via TKO in the 2nd.
B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: Penn is coming very close to cleaning out the entire lightweight division. After winning the title over Joe Stevenson at UFC 80, Penn has dominated Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Edgar may be the last opponent for Penn in the lightweight division for awhile, as there has been much discussion of him moving up to welterweight after this fight. In his career, Penn is 15-5, with wins over Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver, Matt Serra and Takanori Gomi to go along with his recent victims. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, one of the best technical strikers in the division and boasts some of the best takedown defense in all of MMA. Meanwhile, Edgar is coming into this fight as a huge underdog. He won the title shot after getting three consecutive victories over Matt Veach, Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca, but lost to fellow top contender Gray Maynard via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 13. He’s a smaller lightweight, but comes from a wrestling background and is a solid technical striker. However, he doesn’t really bring any skills to the table that are better than Penn’s. Penn is a better striker and hits harder, he’s better off the floor, and his takedown defense is basically unbreakable. I can see Edgar hanging in this fight for awhile because he’s a pretty tough guy, but he doesn’t pose a serious threat to Penn. Penn via TKO in the 3rd.
Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia: The next title defense for Silva was scheduled to be against Vitor Belfort, but a shoulder injury has now shelved Belfort for awhile. Maia got the call to step in against Silva. Silva is perhaps the most dominant champion in UFC history. Since taking the middleweight title from Rich Franklin at UFC 64, Silva has defended the title five times, won another fight in a catchweight contest, and defeated two fighters (including a former champion) in the light heavyweight divsion. His overall record is 25-4. Silva’s striking and movement make other fighters look just plain silly, and he’s no slouch in the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu department either. Maia is one of the best grapplers in the division and is 12-1 in his MMA career. His lone loss came to Nate Marquardt at UFC 102, where he was knocked out in the first 30 seconds of the contest. Maia rebounded to defeat Dan Miller at UFC 109 via unanimous decision. Despite efforts to improve his striking, it remains Maia’s main weakness. That’s something you don’t want to have as a glaring weakness going into a fight with Silva. If Maia can somehow get the fight to the ground, especially if he is in top position, he has a chance to win. However, if the fight stays standing for any length of time, Silva will pick him apart. I’m banking on the latter. Silva via TKO in the 2nd.
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Phil Davis over Alexander Gustafsson via unanimous decision
Paul Taylor over John Gunderson via TKO in the 2nd
Rick Story over Nick Osipczak via unanimous decision
Brad Blackburn over DeMarques Johnson via TKO in the 1st
Matt Veach over Paul Kelly via unanimous decision
Jon Madsen over Mostapha Al Turk via TKO in the 2nd
Popularity: 2% [?]
UFC Fight Night 21 Quick Picks
Sorry for the brevity of this post, but I didn’t have a ton of time to work on today’s preview for UFC Fight Night 21. I didn’t want to leave you guys without any picks though, so here we go!
Main card:
Ross Pearson vs. Dennis Siver: Siver is on a four-fight win streak, but Pearson has impressed me since winning The Ultimate Fighter. His clinch game has been very solid and I expect him to use it to defeat Siver. Pearson via unanimous decision.
Nate Quarry vs. Jorge Rivera: Two 38-year olds will try to turn back the clock in this one. I think Quarry’s striking and tough chin will give him the edge here, along with his solid wrestling game. Quarry via TKO in the 2nd.
Stefan Struve vs. Roy Nelson: I’ve gone back and forth on this one. In the end, I’m going with Struve. He’s been putting on bulk and hopefully is learning to utilize his reach advantage better. To compete with the top heavyweights in the UFC, I think Nelson needs to head to a real gym instead of his living room. Not saying that Struve is a top heavyweight, but I see him beating Nelson here. Struve via unanimous decision.
Kenny Florian vs. Takanori Gomi: I think Florian is the 2nd best lightweight in the UFC, and maybe in the world. Add to that the troubles that Gomi has had recently and I’m banking on a dominant performance from Florian. Florian via TKO in the 2nd.
Preliminary card:
Rob Emerson over Nik Lentz via TKO in the 2nd
Gleison Tibau over Caol Uno via unanimous decision
Andre Winner over Rafaello Oliviera via TKO in the 1st
Ronnys Torres over Jacob Volkmann via submission in the 2nd.
Gerald Harris over Mario Miranda via unanimous decision
Jason High over Charlie Brenneman via unanimous decision
Yushin Okami over Lucio Linhares via unanimous decision
Popularity: 1% [?]
UFC 111 Preview and Predictions
I’ve been looking forward to UFC 111 for quite some time. The card suffered a blow when Thiago Alves was told he couldn’t fight Jon Fitch due to an irregularity in a pre-fight CAT scan. That took one of the best fights of the night off the card, but there’s still plenty of good ones left.
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes: This fight was promoted from the prelims to the main card when Alves had to pull out and Ben Saunders stepped up to face Fitch. That left the main card one fight short, and Pellegrino and Camoes got the call. Pellegrino is 14-4 in his MMA career, and is 6-3 in the UFC. He’s won his past three fights over Thiago Tavares, Rob Emerson and Josh Neer and will try to make it four in a row with a win over Camoes. He combines solid wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though his striking remains a weakness. Camoes made his UFC debut at UFC 106, fighting Caol Uno to a draw. Camoes would have probably won the fight, but a point was deducted for an illegal upkick, thereby creating the draw. His overall MMA record stands at 10-4. His striking is probably better than Pellegrino’s, though not by a great margin. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and did pretty well fighting off takedowns from Uno, though Pellegrino is better at that facet than Uno. Pellegrino has established himself as a solid mid-tier lightweight, and I expect him to come out on top in this one. Pellegrino via unanimous decision.
Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek: Miller is one of the more underrated lightweights in the world. He brings a 16-2 MMA record to the cage tonight and also boasts a 5-1 UFC record. Much like his brother Dan, Jim is a solid all-around fighter. His striking is good enough to get him by, and his wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu are both above average weapons in his game. His only loss in the UFC was to Gray Maynard. Bocek is a respectable 4-2 inside the Octagon, and his main weapon is his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game. The Canadian is a black belt, but his other skills aren’t anywhere good enough to beat a guy like Miller. That being said, Bocek has won three fights in a row, but is making a big jump up in competetion in this one. Miller has the edge in wrestling and striking, and I think his BJJ game is good enough to keep himself out of danger on the ground, especially when he’s in top control. This fight could certainly go the distance, but I’m expecting Miller to finish it before it goes to the cards. Miller by TKO in the 2nd.
Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders: Saunders begged for this fight after Thiago Alves had to pull out due to an irregularity in a pre-fight CAT scan. Fitch agreed to the contest and the UFC made it happen. Kudos to both guys for being willing to do this. Saunders was originally slated to go against Jake Ellenberger on the main card, so he’s in shape and ready to go. For him, it’s a great opportunity. A win over Fitch puts the division on notice, while a loss to Fitch won’t damage his prospects any. A win-win situation for Saunders if there ever was one. In addition, he had been preparing for Ellenberger, who is somewhat of a similar fighter to Fitch in terms of wrestling ability and fight styles. Saunders is 8-1 in his MMA career, and is an impressive 4-1 in his UFC career. His only loss was to Fitch’s teammate Mike Swick at UFC 99. He’s a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but mainly relies on his striking ability. His height and reach make things difficult for his opponents, while his Muay Thai weapons were especially evident in his last fight, a TKO win over Marcus Davis at UFC 106. Fitch wants a rematch with Georges St. Pierre, but was never really competitve in their UFC 87 title contest. Since that fight, Fitch has gone 3-0 with wins over Akihiro Gono, Paulo Thiago and Mike Pierce. Those are three solid wins, but none of them really screamed “This guy needs another title shot!” All three fights went to decision, with Fitch getting unanimous nods in each case. Fitch hasn’t finished a fight since submitting Roan Carneiro at UFC Fight Night 10 back in the middle of 2007. He’d like to finish off Saunders in this contest, but it won’t be easy. Fitch generally controls his opponents with his strong wrestling and top control game. His striking isn’t great, but he makes up for it with his toughness and ability to get the fight to the ground when he wants to. That will be especially important in this contest. Saunders will have the advantage on his feet, but his wrestling defense isn’t great and he offers very little offense of his back, as evidenced in his fight against Swick. I think Saunders will have his moments in this one, but expect Fitch to dump him on his back every chance he gets. I don’t expect Fitch to do anything differently than he normally does, which is play it safe and grind out a decision win. Fitch via unanimous decision.
Shane Carwin vs. Frank Mir: This heavyweight fight is for the interim heavyweight championship and a shot at UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. Mir has made his desire to face Lesnar a third time no secret, but he’ll have to go through Carwin to get there. Carwin was in line to face Lesnar at UFC 106, but was denied the opportunity after Lesnar became ill and had to be hospitalized. Now, to get his title shot back, he’ll have to defeat Mir. Carwin is an impressive 11-0 in his MMA career, and has won his first three fights inside the Octagon. He comes from a wrestling background and was the NCAA Division II national champion in 1999. At 35 years old, he’s getting his start in the UFC at a relatively old age. He’s a big heavyweight, but not quite as big as Lesnar. His striking is sloppy and often flat-footed, but he makes up for it with vicious knockout power. He’s finished his three UFC opponents in a little over three minutes of actual cage time. Carwin’s last win was over Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96. In that fight, he was hurt early by Gonzaga and was in a bad position on the ground as well. He was able to scramble to his feet to deliver the off-balance KO punch. That win over Gonzaga was his only win over a top flight opponent however. His other two UFC wins were over Christian Wellesch and Neil Wain. It’s hard to imagine that he’s ready for a guy like Mir, but his power and wrestling ability make him a threat. Mir won his last fight over Cheick Kongo in impressive fashion at UFC 107. He knocked Kongo down with a strong left hook, then finished him off with a guillotine. After his loss to Lesnar at UFC 100, Mir has made it a mission to bulk up to contend with the UFC’s bigger heavyweights like Carwin and Lesnar. The size he’s put on looks like good muscle, and it doesn’t seem to have affected his movement in any way. Mir’s main strength is his vaunted Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, though he struggled with having Lesnar on top of him at UFC 100. He claims that it was due more towards mistakes on his part rather than because of Lesnar’s size and strength, and vows to correct those mistakes. Mir has also improved his striking a great deal in recent years, though I think he’s beginning to fall in love with it a little too much. One shot from Carwin could be all it takes to end Mir’s night, so he has to be careful. I know many people think Carwin can do to Mir the same thing that Lesnar did, but I just don’t see it. To me, this is a lopsided fight. I think Mir is still a legit top-five heavyweight in the world, whereas Carwin is being vastly overrated due to his size and his knockout over Gonzaga. I think Mir can pick Carwin apart on his feet, though as I mentioned, he has to be a little careful with Carwin’s power. On the ground, I haven’t really seen Carwin there enough yet to say if he can be as dominating as Lesnar, but I think all signs point to no. I think Mir can take this fight relatively easily. Mir via submission in the 1st.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy: St. Pierre is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. After taking his title back from Matt Serra at UFC 83, St. Pierre has defended his belt three more times, defeating Jon Fitch at UFC 87, B.J. Penn at UFC 94 and Thiago Alves at UFC 100. He won the fights against Fitch and Alves via unanimous decision, though they were both dominating decisions. GSP’s win over Penn was a TKO due to Penn’s corner throwing in the towel after the fourth round. GSP is 19-2 in his career, with the losses coming to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra, both of which he avenged later in his career. His explosive wrestling is his strongest attribute, though his striking is underrated and his submission game is as well. He’s added considerable muscle mass in the past few months, and he now walks around at over 190 lbs making him a good sized welterweight. Hardy is getting this title shot a bit prematurely according to some, but he is 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Rory Markham, Akihiro Gono, Mike Swick and Marcus Davis. Overall, Hardy is 24-6 in his career. He mainly relies on his striking, though I feel his ground game is underrated. He’s not a great wrestler, but as a grappler he is pretty solid. I doubt you’ll see him submit St. Pierre, but all he really wants to do is negate St. Pierre’s top game long enough so he can scramble back to his feet. I think the only way that Hardy can win this fight is with the fight standing, so he needs to do whatever he can to keep himself upright. The UFC has spent a great deal of time, energy and money trying to tell us that Hardy is a worthwhile challenger to St. Pierre, but I have a hard time seeing it. GSP has beaten three fighters in a row who are far above Hardy’s class. I know that anything can happen, but I really don’t even think that Hardy’s standup game is a huge threat to St. Pierre. Hardy has good power in his hands, but nothing really overwhelming. I think St. Pierre will dominate this fight for as long as it goes until he decides to finish it. St. Pierre via TKO in the 2nd.
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Nate Diaz over Rory Markham via submission in the 2nd
Matt Brown over Ricardo Almeida via TKO in the 2nd
Rodney Wallace over Jared Hamman via unanimous decision
Rousimar Palhares over Tomasz Drawl by submission in the 1st
Matt Riddle over Greg Soto via unanimous decision
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