UFC 120 Preview and Predictions
UFC 120 isn’t the flashiest card on paper, and along with it being on tape delay and one week before a highly anticipated pay-per-view, it’s not receiving much buzz in the MMA community. However, there should be some entertaining matchups that should serve as a nice appetizer to next Saturday’s main entree.
James Wilks vs. Claude Patrick: Patrick is a quality prospect, albeit one who is flying under the radar of most UFC fans. He’s 12-1 in his MMA career, and has won his past 11 fights, including a 2nd round submission win over Ricardo Funch at UFC 115. Patrick is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but his standup game remains a work in progress. Wilks was the welterweight winner of the ninth season of The Ultimate Fighter, but has gone just 1-1 since the show. He lost to Matt Brown via TKO at UFC 105, but rebounded to get a unanimous decision victory over Peter Sobotta at UFC 115. Wilks is also a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but I think Patrick holds a significant grappling edge. Wilks best chance is to keep this fight standing, as Patrick is the stronger wrestler here as well. He should find some success on his feet, but his striking is solid, not spectacular. Patrick will win most of the ground work. Patrick via unanimous decision.
Cheick Kongo vs. Travis Browne: Browne has amassed a 10-0 record in his MMA career up to this point, but Kongo will be his toughest test by far. Browne won his UFC debut by beating James McSweeney via TKO in the 1st round at The Ultimate Fighter season 11 finale. Browne is a solid striker with good power, but lacks any ground game whatsoever. Browne has been hyped by some as a future contender in the heavyweight division, but he has some serious holes he needs to take care of in his ground game to enter that conversation. Kongo has enjoyed an up-and-down UFC career to this point. Wins over Assuerio Silva and Mirko Cro Cop had Kongo entering the discussion as a fringe title contender prior to his loss to Heath Herring at UFC 82. Kongo then rebounded to win three consecutive fights before losing a decision to Cain Velasquez at UFC 99. Kongo followed that up with a 1st round submission loss to Frank Mir at UFC 107, before rebounding again with a win over Paul Buentello at UFC Live: Jones vs. Vera. Kongo is a very good striker with good reach, although he remains somewhat tenative at times. His wrestling lacks technique, but his pure strength has been a weapon for him on a few occasions. While a liability against most fighters, Kongo’s wrestling will actually be a strength against Browne. Look for him to exploit Browne’s inexperience on the ground early. Kongo’s ground ‘n’ pound can be dangerous, and could definitely be a factor in this fight. We’ll see how far along Browne is in his evolution, but right now, Kongo is just the better fighter. Kongo via TKO in the 2nd.
John Hathaway vs. Mike Pyle: Hathaway really made a name for himself amongst mainstream MMA fans with his drubbing of Diego Sanchez at UFC 114. However, Hathaway has been impressive during his entire MMA career, racking up a 14-0 record, including a 4-0 run so far in the UFC. Besides Sanchez, Hathaway has beaten Paul Taylor, Rick Story and Thomas Egan in his UFC career. He possesses solid wrestling skill, both offensive and defensive, and good ground n’ pound as well. His striking isn’t quite up to par with his wrestling, but he does have good power. Pyle should be a pretty good test for the youngster. A veteran of nearly 30 MMA fighter, Pyle holds a 20-7 career record and has beaten guys like Chris Wilson and Dan Hornbuckle. He’s mainly known for his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but struggles with his wrestling as was evident in his loss to Jake Ellenberger at UFC 108. I think Hathaway holds a slight edge while the fight is standing, but he can also do some damage with takedowns and ground n’ pound. Pyle’s guard is good and dangerous, but I’ve seen enough of Hathaway’s top game to be pretty confident that he can do some damage from that position without getting caught by a submission.Hathaway via TKO in the 2nd.
Carlos Condit vs. Dan Hardy: This will be Hardy’s first contest since he was dominated by Georges St. Pierre in their title fight at UFC 111. He never really got on track during that fight, as he was too busy trying to (unsuccessfully) stop GSP’s takedowns to really implement his striking game. Luckily for him, Condit doesn’t possess GSP’s wrestling acumen, but he should still provide a serious test to the hometown favorite. Hardy brings a 23-7 career record to the Octagon on Saturday, and he has won four of his first five UFC contests as well. Primarily known for his striking, he’s done work to improve his takedown defense as well, although it remains a weakness. Condit came into the UFC from the WEC hoping to provide a jolt to the UFC’s welterweight corps. He lost a split-decision to Martin Kampmann in his first contest, but has since rebounded to win back-to-back fights over Jake Ellenberger and Rory MacDonald. Condit is pretty good at all aspects, but tends to like to engage on his feet and in the clinch more than anything. Despite being at a disadvantage in a pure boxing match with Hardy, he should be able to find some success in the clinch. His wrestling game is nowhere near the level of GSP, nor does he have that kind of explosiveness, but he should be able to manage a couple takedowns on Hardy. I think Hardy will have the advantage while the fight is standing, but look for Condit to look for the clinch early and often, and to turn some of those opportunites into takedowns. I think this will wind up being a very close fight, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either won the decision, but I’ll go with Condit via split-decision.
Michael Bisping vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama: Bisping is coming off an impressive victory over Dan Miller at UFC 114 where he looked as good as he’s every looked inside the UFC. He’s always set a quick pace and thrown tons of punches, but he seemed to have more power behind his shots against Miller. He’s also continued to improve both his offensive and defensive wrestling, and his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game is underrated. He doesn’t use it to submit people, but instead makes good use of it by executing sweeps and maintaining top control. His fight against Denis Kang at UFC 105 showcased the improvements he’s made in those areas. Despite dropping two of his last four fights, Bisping holds an impressive 9-3 record in the UFC. Akiyama hasn’t been as fortunate or impressive as Bisping. He came into the UFC with a lot of hype, with a good deal of it due to his worldwide appeal and entertaining nature. After beating Alan Belcher in a close decision at UFC 100, Akiyama struggled in a submission loss to Chris Leben at UFC 116. Leben was coming off of a victory just two weeks prior to that fight, but capitalized on Akiyama’s struggles with his conditioning late in the 2nd and into the third round. Akiyama is a black belt in Judo, but is also a very good striker. However, I think he’ll have loads of problems with Bisping’s style. Number one, the pace that Bisping sets could be difficult to maintain for Akiyama, who has had issues with conditioning as I mentioned previously. Also, I’m not sure that Akiyama will be able to take Bisping down like he probably believes he can. Defensive wrestling is one aspect of Bisping’s game that he has really worked on, though stopping Judo throws are admittedly different than defending traditional double leg takedowns. I think Bisping pours it on as the fight moves along, and ends up pulling away for a decision victory. Bisping via unanimous decision.
Popularity: 2% [?]
WEC 51 Preview
After last weekend’s disappointing UFC 119, MMA fans are excited to watch one of the best cards in recent memory as WEC 51 takes place on Versus tomorrow night. Featuring one of the most talented and exciting fighters on the planet in Jose Aldo, one fighter trying to make his way back to the top of the sport in Miguel Torres, and a rematch filled with bad intentions featuring Donald Cerrone and Jamie Varner, WEC 51 should be the cure to any MMA fan’s post-UFC 119 hangover.
Leonard Garcia vs. Mark Hominick: This fight is my early favorite for “Fight of the Night.” Both guys like to keep the fight standing. Hominick’s impressive Muay Thia and kickboxing were on full display as he took on Yves Jabouin. The bout was a back-and-forth affair, with Hominick eventually getting the TKO in the 2nd round. The win improved Hominick’s career record to 18-8, and was his second consecutive victory in the WEC. Garcia is also coming off a memorable contest, as he beat Chan Sung Jung in one of the most exciting (and sloppy) bouts in recent memory at WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber. The Spike TV telecast made an instant star out of Jung, so much so that it almost is forgotten that Garcia won the split-decision. Garcia fought for the featherweight title back at WEC 29, but was submitted by Mike Brown in the first round. Since that fight, Garcia has gone 2-1-1. Garcia trains with Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico, and features a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but he normally concentrates more on striking. This could be a slugfest. Garcia may have more ways to win, but his defense is awful. Hominick’s isn’t exactly great either, but I’m going with Hominick via TKO in the 2nd.
Chan Sung Jung vs. George Roop: The other half of one of the fight’s of the year, Chan Sung Jung, will make his first appearance in the WEC cage since the Garcia fight as he takes on George Roop. Nicknamed “The Korean Zombie,” Jung hung tough against Garcia, and won the fight in many people’s minds. The loss dropped his overall record to 10-2. The 23-year old Jung is mainly a kickboxer, but has submitted opponents in six of his 10 wins. Roop is a former UFC fighter who made the drop to 145 after struggling to find success in the UFC’s lightweight division. His first fight at 145 in the WEC resulted in a unanimous decision loss to Eddie Wineland, and Roop followed that up with a draw against Leonard Garcia at WEC 47. At 6 feet tall, Roop holds a significant reach edge over most of his opponents, but has struggled to really make that a weapon. Jung is the heavy favorite, and I expect him to win the fight. Jung via unanimous decision.
Miguel Torres vs. Charlie Valencia: Torres was once considered one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world, but consecutive losses to Brian Bowles and Joseph Benavidez have left him desperate for a win to get his career back on track. I though Torres was looking pretty good in the Bowles fight until he made a careless mistake and got caught. That loss seemed to hurt Torres more mentally than physically, as he looked like a completely different fighter in the loss to Benavidez. He looked much more tenative and tepid than he had in any of his previous fights. He claims that he has corrected some flaws and will get back to his old ways, but to get back on track, he’ll need to defeat a tough opponent in Valencia. Valencia has won his past three fights in the WEC, over Seth Dikun, Coty Wheeler, and Akitoshi Tamura, but he’s far from the top of the division. At only 5′3, Valencia will be towered over by Torres, and that will make things extremely difficult. If Torres is still messed up mentally, Valencia has the talent to upset him. However, a focused Torres will take care of this fight quickly. I think Torres will be in there to prove a point tomorrow night. Torres via TKO in the 1st.
Jamie Varner vs. Donald Cerrone: This is a rematch of the lightweight title fight at WEC 38. Varner controlled much of the early action, but Cerrone was coming on strong at the end of the fight before a knee caught Varner in the eye. The fight was stopped when Varner said he couldn’t continue, and by rule, the fight went to the scorecards. Varner won the contest on a split decision. Cerrone and Varner have entered into a war of words since the inital contest, and were scheduled to fight again at WEC 43, but Varner wasn’t cleared to fight, and Cerrone instead took on Benson Henderson for the interim title and the chance to take on Varner. Henderson won a close decision over Cerrone, and went on to beat Cerrone again in a rematch at WEC 48. Varner returned to the cage at WEC 46, losing to Henderson via submission in the 3rd round. Varner took on Kamal Shalorus at WEC 49, a fight that ended in a draw. Has Cerrone improved his wrestling enough to avoid the takedowns by Varner that contributed to his loss in the first contest? That’s the question that I have. I think he has the advantage striking, and Cerrone is also dangerous with his submissions. To me, neither fighter has looked very impressive in recent outings, but I think Cerrone will get the victory in the rematch. Cerrone via unanimous decision.
Jose Aldo vs. Manvel Gamburyan: Aldo has established himself as one of the top and most exciting fighters in the world with a string of exciting victories. The 24-year old Aldo is 17-1 in his career, with the lone loss coming nearly five years ago. Since entering the WEC in 2008, Aldo has defeated the likes of Cub Swanson, Mike Brown and Urijah Faber. He has explosive punching power, dangerous kicks and knees, and is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He used those leg kicks to punish and render Faber nearly non-competitive in their fight at WEC 48 en route to a lopsided victory. Gamburyan used to fight in the UFC’s lightweight division, but dropped to featherweight upon entering the WEC in 2009. Since entering the WEC, Gamburyan has gone 3-0, defeating John Franchi, Leonard Garcia, and former titleholder Mike Brown. The victory over Brown was impressive, as Gamburyan won via knockout in the 1st round. He’s a dangerous fighter who holds a black belt in Judo, possesses solid submission skills, and has good power at this weight class. He’s not a pushover for Aldo by any means, and has the potential to score the upset. However, it’s extremely hard to bet against Aldo right now. He looks nearly unbeatable in the featherweight division, but the same could have been said about Urijah Faber or Mike Brown not too long ago. However, I think Aldo gets the win here and remains atop the division for quite awhile longer. Aldo via TKO in the 3rd.
Popularity: 2% [?]
UFC 119 Preview and Predictions
UFC 119 is severely lacking in star power. An already shaky main event between Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira was scrapped when Nogueira came down with an injury. Mirko Cro Cop took his place, but there is some question about Cro Cop’s health as well after reports came out that he was considering pulling out of the fight due to a severe eye poke he suffered in training. UFC president Dana White confirmed that Cro Cop would still be fighting in the main event, but seeing Cro Cop show up to today’s pre-fight press conference wearing a pair of dark sunglasses probably didn’t ease a lot of minds. Regardless, UFC 119 does feature some pretty solid matchups, and should be a pretty entertaining card despite lacking a true main event.
Melvin Guillard vs. Jeremy Stephens: Guillard has had a long career despite being only 27 years old. He’s amassed a 24-8-2 record in his career, and he sports a 7-4 record in the UFC. Guillard has won two straight fights since joining Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico, beating Ronnys Torres via unanimous decision at UFC 109, and knocking out Waylon Lowe in the first round at UFC 114. He’s a very talented fighter with good quickness and power in his strikes, but has looked lost on the ground at times. The transition to Jackson’s camp seems to have really helped him as he’s looked more patient and comfortable in his past two fights. Torres is very good on the ground, but Guillard seemed comfortable throughout the entire fight. If Jackson can keep Guillard focused and tap into the talent that he clearly possesses, Guillard can be a very dangerous fighter. Like Guillard, Stephens has looked good in his past two fights, beating Justin Buchholz at UFC Fight Night 19 and following that up with a split-decision win over Sam Stout at UFC 113. Stephens is 18-5 in his MMA career, and is only 24 years old. Like Guillard, Stephens prefers to keep the fight standing. This fight should provide some fireworks as both guys like to slugfests, and neither has shown great defense in the past. In the end, I think Guillard’s newfound focus and power that I believe is just a notch above Stephens will earn him the victory. Guillard via TKO in the 2nd.
Sean Sherk vs. Evan Dunham: Barring any last second injuries, Sean Sherk will return to the Octagon for the first time since his loss to Frankie Edgar in May of ‘09 at UFC 98. Sherk has had trouble staying healthy in recent years, and at 37 years old, those injuries are taking longer and longer to heal. The former UFC lightweight champion has also struggled inside the cage as he’s dropped two of his past three fights. He seems to have mostly abandoned the wrestling roots that helped him achieve success in the UFC, and his lack of reach has really hurt him in recent fights. Dunham is considered by many to be a rising lightweight star in the UFC, as he’s won his first four UFC contests over increasingly difficult competition. At 5′10, Dunham will have a big reach advantage, and utilizes it well in his striking. Though not a dominant wrestler, Dunham is a very good grappler and a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. If Sherk actually does go back to his wrestling after finding himself in trouble on the feet, Dunham could very well utilize his grappling skills to sweep Sherk and gain top position, or threaten with submissions from his guard. I think Sherk’s time has passed, and the injuries and layoff will take their toll. Dunham will get a big victory over a pretty big name opponent. Dunham via unanimous decision.
Matt Serra vs. Chris Lytle: This fight is a rematch from the final of season 4 of The Ultimate Fighter, which was dubbed “The Comeback,” featuring fighters who were trying to get second chances at stardom in the UFC. That fight was a pretty lackluster affair, as neither fighter really took control. Serra squeaked by with a split-decision victory, and earned a title shot against welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. The win over Lytle changed Serra’s life, as he went on to shock the MMA world by knocking out GSP and winning the welterweight title. Though his reign was short-lived, Serra became a household name amongst MMA fans. Meanwhile, Lytle went on to lose a decision to Matt Hughes, and later dropped fights to Thiago Alves and Josh Koscheck. However, Lytle has found success in recent fights, beating Kevin Burns, Brian Foster, and Matt Brown in his past three fights. Both guys are pretty well-rounded fighters. Both have a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and even though Serra is considered the more effective grappler, a case can be made that Lytle has acutally used his ground game to better success than Serra has. However, both fighters prefer to keep their fights standing. Lytle is a former boxer who possesses strong hands but poor defense, while Serra struggles with his limited reach, but makes up for it with knockout power in his go-to punch, his overhand right. Serra has utilized that right hand to not only wobble and later finish GSP, but also in a quick finish over Frank Trigg at UFC 109. This is a fight that I’m really looking forward to, as I expect a much better contest than the first fight. Serra probably has the power advantage, while Lytle has more of a potential to win a sustained striking battle. Lytle’s defensive issues make me lean towards Serra, who will eventually find a home for that right hand. Serra via TKO in the 2nd.
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Ryan Bader: This winner of this fight will be towards the front of the line in terms of title shots in the UFC’s light heavyweight divsion. After a successful career in PRIDE, Nogueira made a splash in his UFC debut by knocking out Luiz Cane at UFC 106. However, he followed that up with a very disappointing split-decision win over Jason Brilz at UFC 114. Many observers felt that Brilz won that fight. In his career, Nogueira is an impressive 19-3 in his MMA career, with notable wins over Sakuraba, Alistair Overeem (twice) and Dan Henderson. He’s a very good technical boxer, and showed his power in the fight against Cane. He’s also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Bader comes from primarily a wrestling background. The winner of the 8th season of The Ultimate Fighter, Bader was a two-time All-American while wrestling at Arizona State. Since winning the show, Bader has reeled off three straight wins, beating Carmelo Marrero, Eric Schafer, and Keith Jardine. He’s very powerful though still raw with his striking, and has some pretty good ground ‘n’ pound to go along with his wrestling. Is he too inexperienced to take out someone as experienced as Nogueira? I think the key is Bader’s wrestling, as Nogueira has never been known by his take down defense. He was taken down by Brilz, and didn’t offer much from the bottom until the third round. Bader is much stronger and a better grappler. Nogueira should have the technical advantage on the feet, but Bader’s power is not to be overlooked. I think Bader is ready to take a major step forward in his career. Bader via unanimous decision.
Frank Mir vs. Mirko Cro Cop: This main event has provided the least amount of buzz of any PPV main event in recent memory. Mir is trying to rebound from a loss to Shane Carwin at UFC 111, where he was manhandled by another huge heavyweight. After trying to bulk up to contend with the likes of Brock Lesnar and Carwin, Mir commented after the loss to Carwin that he was considering dropping down to the light heavyweight division. Those plans were put on hold when Mir was signed for a rematch against Antoinio Rodrigo Nogueira. When Nogueira went down with an injury, Cro Cop stepped in to replace him. Now Mir is stuck in a difficult position, as a win over the fading Cro Cop won’t do much to elevate his status in the heavyweight division, while a loss may put his career into a tailspin. A gifted Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, Mir has also worked hard to improve his striking in recent years. In his last victory over Cheick Kongo at UFC 107, Mir floored Kongo with a left hook before finishing him with a guillotine. Though Cro Cop has clearly lost a step on his feet in recent fights, he’s still a dangerous striker. After losing the first round against Pat Barry at UFC 115, Cro Cop came on strong to win the second round before finishing Barry with a rear naked choke in the third. The win was Cro Cop’s 28th career MMA win to go along with seven losses, and it improved his UFC record to 4-3. This will be a difficult fight for Cro Cop to win. At this stage in his career, I’m not convinced that his striking is that far superior to Mir’s. He doesn’t seem to have the KO power that he had earlier in his career, and is much more reluctant to throw his trademark head kicks. If the fight hits the ground, Mir has a clear advantage. Mir is desperate for a win here, and will do all he can to get this to the floor quickly. I believe he’ll be successful in doing so. When that happens, a lackluster main event will have an anticlimatic finish. Mir via submission in the 1st.
Popularity: 2% [?]
Chael Sonnen Suspended for 1 Year After Positive Drug Test
UFC middleweight contender Chael Sonnen has been suspended for one year by the California State Atlhletic Commission for testing positive for steroids after his loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 117. Sonnen has 30 days to appeal the decision. Here is part of the press release from the CSAC:
The California State Athletic Commission (CSAC) has suspended the license of Mixed Martial Arts (MMA) fighter Chael Sonnen, after Sonnen tested positive for steroids, a banned substance.
A sample from Sonnen’s August 6 drug test came back with a high T/E (testosterone-to-estrogen) level, which is indicative of anabolic steroid use. CSAC learned of the results September 2 and ordered a second test, which also came back positive for steroid use. CSAC received test results from the second sample on September 14 and suspended Sonnen two days later. He is suspended for one year. Sonnen has 30 days to appeal the decision.
Sonnen and Silva engaged in a memorable battle at UFC 117 in August, with Sonnen controlling the first four rounds before being submitted by Silva halfway through the fifth round. Sonnen was ahead on all three scorecards, and was set to take home a unanimous decision victory and the UFC middleweight championship prior to getting caught in the final round.
The two were preliminarily scheduled for a high profile rematch in early 2011, but this suspension has shelved those plans. Vitor Belfort will now get the next shot at Silva, while Nate Marquardt will replace Belfort against Yushin Okami in the main event of UFC 122.
According to Sports Illustrated’s Josh Gross, CSAC executive director George Dodd said that Sonnen told him the day before the fight during drug testing that he used “an illegal performance enhancing drug” during training. However, Sonnen didn’t include the information on the pre-fight medical questionnaire or submit documentation about the drug he took.
Sonnen is expected to discuss the situation on ESPN 2’s MMA Live, which airs at midnight on Thursday.
Popularity: 3% [?]
UFC Fight Night 22 Preview and Predictions
UFC Fight Night 22 serves as the lead-in to the new season of The Ultimate Fighter. This season features Georges St. Pierre and Josh Koscheck as coaches, and is a season that I’m really looking forward to after a few lackluster ones. The UFC Fight Night 22 card should serve as a solid and entertaining lead in to the new season.
Ross Pearson vs. Cole Miller: Miller remains a pretty promising fighter in the UFC’s lightweight division, as he showcases a solid and improving ground game and a frame that gives him a reach advantage over the majority of his opponents. After dropping a fight to Efrain Escudero at UFC 103, Miller rebounded with a first round submission win over Dan Lauzon at UFC 108. The American Top Team product will take on the winner of the 9th season of The Ultimate Fighter, Ross Pearson. Pearson has won his first two fights since the show ended, beating Aaron Riley at UFC 105, and following it up with a decision win over Dennis Siver at UFC Fight Night 21. I think Pearson will have a rough time in this one. His size should play a role as he will give up a significant reach advantage to Miller. Miller’s ground skills could also give Pearson some problems. He hasn’t really been tested in the UFC, but I think that time has come. Miller via submission in the 2nd.
Jim Miller vs. Gleison Tibau: Miller has quietly run off four consecutive wins in the UFC’s lightweight division, including a unanimous decision over Mark Bocek at UFC 111. He may be only a couple wins from being considered in the upper portion of the division. He is a solid all-around fighter, featuring a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, decent wrestling skills, and an adequate striking game. Tibau is coming off of back-to-back wins over Josh Neer and Caol Uno. The American Top Team product is most known for his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills, but his striking remains a weakness. I expect Miller to exploit that weakness, even though he is not a top striker by any means. Miller via unanimous decision.
Efrain Escudero vs. Charles Oliveira: Escudero won the 8th season of The Ultimate Fighter, and began his post-show career with an impressive first-round KO victory over Cole Miller. Escudero lost to Evan Dunham via armbar at UFC Fight Night 20, but rebounded with a unanimous decision win over Dan Lauzon at UFC 114. Oliveira is one of the better prospects in the UFC. He followed up a 12-0 start to his MMA career by submitting Darren Elkins in only 41 seconds at UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko in his UFC debut just over a month ago. He is most well-known for his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, as he is currently a brown belt. Oliveira is a very good prospect, but we haven’t seen him tested. Escudero could definitely do that. However, Escudero missed weight by four pounds at today’s weigh ins, suggesting to me he either didn’t train properly, or is dealing with an injury that contributed to the issue. I’m making a late switch here and going with Oliveira via submission in the 1st.
Nate Marquardt vs. Rousimar Palhares: This fight serves as the main event of the evening. Marquardt was close to receiving a title shot against middleweight champion Anderson Silva, but a loss to Chael Sonnen at UFC 109 ended those hopes. In that contest, he was taken down almost at will by the talented wrestler Sonnen, but was close to submitting Sonnen in the 3rd round. Overall, Marquardt is an impressive 9-2 inside the Octagon. He combines a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu with good striking and decent wrestling. He struggled with takedown defense against Sonnen, but Chael is one of the better pure wrestlers in MMA. Palhares isn’t at that level. He is however, a very talented fighter. Palhares is 4-1 in the UFC, with his only loss coming to Dan Henderson via unanimous decision at UFC 88. Palhares is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and a very solid grappler. He has won via submission against three of his UFC opponents, and was criticized for holding on to his heel hook against Tomasz Drwal after Drwal submitted. Palhares’ legs make him look more like a light heavyweight than a middleweight, but I think there will be opportunities for Marquardt to exploit Palhares’ holes. Palhares’ is nowhere near the wrestler that Sonnen is, and his striking is adequate at best. I don’t think Marquardt will want to spend a ton of time on the ground with Palhares, so look for him to try and set the tempo early, and to try to keep this fight standing. If he can do that, he can get the win. Marquardt via TKO in the 2nd.
Popularity: 2% [?]
Penn vs. Hughes III Scheduled for UFC 123
After dropping his second consecutive decision to Frankie Edgar at UFC 118, B.J. Penn decided to take a fight in the welterweight division. His opponent will likely be a familiar one, as according to various reports, Matt Hughes will take on Penn at UFC 123 in November. This will be the third fight between the two legends, and will serve as the rubber match as each fighter has one win apiece.
Hughes impressively stopped Ricardo Almeida in the first round of their contest at UFC 117. After the fight, he indicated that he planned to take the Fall and Winter months off, but apparently, a third fight against Penn was too tempting to pass up.
Penn dropped a shocking decision to Frankie Edgar at UFC 112, losing the lightweight title he had held for over two years. He was the heavy favorite heading into the rematch at UFC 118, but was dominated by Edgar en route to a unanimous decision loss.
Hughes and Penn first faced off at UFC 46, with Penn choking out Hughes in the first round to win the welterweight title. The rematch took place at UFC 63, as Hughes stepped in for an injured Georges St. Pierre. Hughes won via TKO in the 3rd round to win back his welterweight title. Penn dominated much of the first two rounds of that fight, but tired in the 3rd as Hughes took control. Penn claimed a rib injury suffered late in the 2nd round contributed to the defeat.
UFC 123 is expected to take place in Detroit, Michigan on November 20th. Though not officially signed, the rumored main event is a light heavyweight fight between Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Lyoto Machida.
Popularity: 14% [?]
UFC 118: Penn vs. Edgar 2 Preview and Predictions
Much of the hype for UFC 118 surrounds the co-main event between former UFC heavyweight and light heavyweight champion Randy Couture, and former boxing champion James “Lights Out” Toney. However, the card features a number one contenders fight in the lightweight division, and is headlined by the lightweight championship rematch between Frankie Edgar and B.J. Penn. Edgar won a controversial unanimous decision at UFC 112, and Penn is looking to get his title back.
Demian Maia vs. Mario Miranda: Both guys are on this card unexpectedly. Maia was scheduled to headline the upcoming UFC Fight Night 22 card against Alan Belcher, but when Belcher had to pull out with serious vision problems, the UFC shifted Maia to the main card of UFC 118 against Miranda. Maia is coming off the infamous unanimous decision loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 112. Luckily for Maia, more has been made about Silva’s antics during the fight than the obvious holes in his own game. Overall, Maia is 12-2 in his MMA career, and is 6-2 in the UFC. He’s a tremendous grappler, but the striking and wrestling aspects of his game still need work for him to compete against the very best in the middleweight divison. Like Maia, Miranda is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but he is nowhere near as accomplished on the ground as Maia. He’s 12-1 in his MMA career, and his win over David Loiseau at UFC 115 evened his UFC record up at 1-1. Miranda’s Muay Thai skills are solid and he is a much bigger threat on his feet than Maia is. The ground game obviously favors Maia, but Maia would be favored there against any middleweight the UFC has. The question is: Can he avoid taking too much damage on his feet to get the fight to the ground? I’ve been leaning towards Miranda most of the week, but I’m making a last minute change and going with Maia. He may sustain some damage, but he’ll eventually get the fight to the ground. From there, he’ll find a way to finish. Maia via submission in the 2nd.
Nate Diaz vs. Marcus Davis: Davis has dropped two of his past three fights, but is coming off a TKO victory over Jonathan Goulet at UFC 113. After losing to Melvin Guillard at The Ultimate Fighter 2 finale, Davis ran off six straight wins, but that streak stopped with a unanimous decision loss to Mike Swick at UFC 85. Wins over Paul Kelly and Chris Lytle followed, but then Davis dropped consecutive fights to Ben Saunders and Dan Hardy. He’s looked a little slower in his past few contests, and at 37, age may be beginning to catch up to Davis. Coming from a boxing background, Davis worked hard to improve his wrestling, but he’ll be overmatched on the ground in this one. Diaz is a Cesar Gracie brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and very slick with his transitions much like his older brother Nick. Diaz also uses his height and reach pretty well in his striking game. He isn’t quite the boxer his brother is, but he’s pretty solid as well. He should be able to keep Davis at distance with his jab, and if Diaz gets the fight to the ground, he can end it there too. I’m expecting this one to be a mostly striking affair, with Diaz getting the better of it most of the way. Diaz via unanimous decision.
Gray Maynard vs. Kenny Florian: This one will determine who is first to challenge the winner of the main event between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar. Maynard could have been the next challenger for Penn before UFC 112, and given his victory over Edgar head-to-head, it would’ve been hard to argue if he had been given the title shot. However, his string of decision victories wasn’t enough to prove that he deserved the next shot, so the UFC gave Edgar the fight instead. Edgar obviously made the most of his opportunity, now it’s up to Maynard to beat Florian to prove that he does indeed deserve a title shot. That won’t be an easy task. Florian is one of the most solid all-around fighters in the UFC’s lightweight division, combining solid and still improving striking with a good Jiu Jitsu game and improved wrestling skills. He beat former PRIDE star Takinori Gomi at UFC Fight Night 21, controlling the majority of the fight with his striking (specifically his jab) before ending the fight with a rear naked choke in the 3rd. He’s had two shots at the title, falling short against Sean Sherk at UFC 64 and again against B.J. Penn at UFC 101. Maynard is 9-0-1 in his MMA career, and has won his past seven fights. However, the last six of those win were via decision, and two of those were split decisions. Maynard was a three-time All American wrestler at Michigan State, and has improved his striking a great deal since entering the UFC. However, I think if he tries to strike with Florian he could be in for a long night. That’s not to say he wouldn’t have a shot, but the odds would shift significantly to Florian in that type of battle. Maynard needs to utilize his wrestling to control this fight, but Florian’s takedown defense has improved a great deal in recent fights. Also, Maynard has never been known as a great top control guy, perhaps giving Florian some opportunities for submissions from his guard. I think Florian is just too good for Maynard in this one. Florian via unanimous decision.
James Toney vs. Randy Couture: This is the co-main event of the evening. Toney is a highly decorated boxer, and actually still holds a belt in the heavyweight division from one of the Alphabet soup organizations. However, at 42 years old and looking like he just swallowed a basketball, it’s clear that Toney is far from his athletic peak at this stage of his career. Which pretty much explains why he is taking this fight in the first place. Boxing organizations realize he is shot as a fighter, and the only place willing to pay him a decent amount of money to fight is MMA, and the UFC specifically. Couture is no spring chicken either at 47 years old. However, he remains in top physical shape, and is coming off back-to-back wins over Mark Coleman and Brandon Vera. There’s not much analyzing that needs to be done for this fight. Toney needs to land a KO shot within the first minute of the fight or it will be over. Couture needs to avoid that shot, and he’ll get the win. There is no other way possible of Toney winning this fight. The safe money says that Couture takes him down within the first 15 seconds of the fight and submits him in short order, but I have a feeling Randy may try to throw a few leg kicks and introduce Toney to the world of a sport where you have to worry about other things besides punches. Then he’ll dump him on his head and finish him. Couture via….. whatever he wants in the 1st.
B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: This is a rematch from their fight at UFC 112, where Edgar won a unaimous decision with some puzzling scores. I personally scored the fight 48-47 Penn, and the majority of MMA writers agreed with me. The judges disagreed, with one judge even scoring the fight 50-45 Edgar. Edgar controlled much of the pace of the first contest, but not much else. Penn landed the more significant strikes, but the group of judges preferred activity over accomplishment in the first fight. Even though I thought Penn won the first fight, he didn’t look himself. He was slower and visably gassed during the fight. I don’t think it was so much Edgar’s pace as it was perhaps a lack of focus during Penn’s training camp and the heat in the outdoor venue the event took place in. Regardless, I expect Penn to come into this fight more focused and in better shape. There really isn’t much else he needs to do to reverse the outcome besides make sure there are different (and better) judges. Edgar is a tough figher with a lot of heart. He also posseses good boxing skills, solid wrestling and good cardio. He’s a good fighter. Penn, even as he begins the downside of his career, is still a great fighter. Penn via TKO in the 3rd.
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