UFC 125 Preview and Predictions
It may not be the flashiest lightweight title fight in the history of the organization, but Saturday night’s UFC 125 main event between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard should answer a few lingering questions that remain about both fighters. The undercard also features some intriguing matchups which could propel a few fighters to championship contention, and could also send some bigger names to the unemployment line.
Nate Diaz vs. Dong Huyn Kim: This is a good matchup between two solid welterweights. Since moving up to welterweight from lightweight, Diaz is 2-0 with two stoppage wins. He finished Rory Markham in the first round via TKO at UFC 111, and followed that up with a third round submission victory over Marcus Davis at UFC 118. Diaz is 8-3 in his UFC career, and 13-5 overall. He’s a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and his striking continues to improve as he’s gotten older. His wrestling remains a weakness, but with his slick ground game, even when he is on his back he remains dangerous. Since entering the UFC after a successful career overseas, Kim is 4-0-1 with wins over Jason Tan, Matt Brown, TJ Grant, and Amir Sadollah. The Judo black belt features a strong takedown game, but his striking won’t scare many UFC welterweights, including Diaz. Diaz should be able to win the striking exchanges, and keep Kim off-balanced enough on the ground to win a decision. Diaz via unanimous decision.
Clay Guida vs. Takanori Gomi: Guida’s UFC career seemed to be in reverse after consecutive losses to Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian in 2009, but wins over Shannon Gugerty and Rafael dos Anjos have made 2010 a much better year. Guida hopes to begin 2011 with a bang as he takes on Takanori Gomi. Gomi’s career seemed to be on life support after being submitted by Kenny Florian at UFC Fight Night 21. Gomi didn’t look like the same fighter who had dominated the PRIDE lightweight division in the mid-2000s, and seemed to be a shell of his former self. However, with an explosive knockout victory over Tyson Griffin at UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko in August, Gomi found a little of his former magic. His striking remains dangerous, but his defensive wrestling and ground game remain a weakness. Expect Guida to try and avoid prolonged striking exchanges, where he is at a severe disadvantage, and attempt to get the fight to the ground. Throughout the years, Guida’s striking has improved very little, while Gomi’s ground game has improved at roughly the same slow rate. Can Guida grind out a decision over Gomi? Very possible and likely. However, I’m picking Gomi to land something that will drop the usually tough chinned Guida allowing him to get the finish. Gomi via TKO in the 2nd.
Thiago Silva vs. Brandon Vera: Silva will be looking to get back into the thick of things in the light heavyweight division, while Vera will be looking to avoid getting his face smashed in again. Silva has dropped two of his past three fights after beginning his career 13-0, though the two losses were to Lyoto Machida and Rashad Evans. Machida finished him quickly, but the Evans fight was much closer. Silva was close to finishing Evans in the third round, but didn’t have enough gas in the tank to get the finish. It was revealed after the fight that Silva was battling a severe back injury. This will be Silva’s first contest since the Evans fight, which took place almost exactly one year ago. It will be interesting to see how his back holds up and how his conditioning is after the long layoff. Vera is also coming off a long layoff after getting his face rearranged by Jon Jones at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones in March. After beginning his career 8-0, Vera has gone 3-5 since. A drop to the light heavyweight division paid early dividends, but really hasn’t helped his career much. This could be Vera’s last chance to prove he still belongs in the UFC. I actually like Vera in this matchup. I don’t think Silva’s striking will overwhelm him, and I think Vera brings the more well-rounded skillset. Vera via unanimous decision.
Chris Leben vs. Brian Stann: This will likely be a standup fight, as neither fighter really likes taking fights to the ground. Leben’s career is on the upswing as he’s won three straight fights, including wins over Aaron Simpson and Yoshihiro Akiyama that took place in a three-week span. Leben was a late replacement for Wanderlei Silva against Akiyama, and dramatically submitted Akiyama in the final round. Leben was looking to get a bigger-name opponent next, but was signed to fight Stann instead. Stann dropped to the middleweight division after being dominated by Phil Davis at UFC 109, and beat Mike Massenzio in his debut at the new weight. Stann trains with Greg Jackson in New Mexico, but his overall game hasn’t really evolved as of yet. He still remains weak on the ground, but won’t have to worry about that much here. He’s a big, strong middleweight, and is a threat in the standup game. Leben’s strong chin will probably be tested, but I think he’s up to the challenge. This should be a fun fight, but I think Leben will get the better of enough of the striking exchanges, and will eventually stop Stann. Leben via TKO in the 2nd.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard: This fight for the UFC lightweight title is a rematch of the two’s 2008 fight. In that contest, the striking exchanges were pretty equal,but Maynard’s size, strength and wrestling advantage ended up winning him the unanimous decision. Since that fight, Edgar has won five straight fights, with wins over Hermes Franca, Sean Sherk, Matt Veach and B.J. Penn twice, once as he won the lightweight championship from him at UFC 112, and once as he defended the title against him at UFC 118. Edgar has really begun to utilize his speed advantage and throws many more combinations in his striking than he did previously. Meanwhile, Maynard has also gone 5-0 since that first matchup, with wins over Rich Clementi, Jim Miller, Roger Huerta, Nate Diaz and Kenny Florian. Like Edgar, most of Maynard’s fights end up going the distance, which have earned him a reputation as a boring fighter. Maynard relies much more heavily on his wrestling than does Edgar, which makes sense because Maynard has the much better wrestling background. However, Maynard’s striking has also improved a great deal since entering the UFC. This will be a very interesting rematch. Can Edgar utilize his speed advantage and his improved striking to keep Maynard off balance, or will Maynards size and wrestling advantage take control again? It’s a very tough call. Maynard definitely has the ability to grind out the five round decision over Edgar, but I just think Edgar has improved more since their first contest. He will inevitably be taken down by Maynard over the course of the fight, but I think Edgar will get the better of most of the striking exchanges and will stuff just enough takedowns to earn the decision. Edgar via split-decision.
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WEC 53 Preview and Predictions
Thursday night’s event will bring an end to the WEC era, but will also mark the beginning of a new era in the UFC. The UFC has already begun to use fighters from the WEC in recent events, and WEC 53 will determine the first ever UFC Bantamweight champion as well as a future contender for the UFC lightweight title.
Bart Palaszewski vs. Kamal Shalorus: After back-to-back losses to Ricardo Lamas and Anthony Njokuani at WEC 39 and WEC 40, Palaszewski’s future in the promotion seemed a little shaky. Palaszewski got a win outside of the promotion, and has since returned with three straight wins over Anthony Pettis, Karen Darabedyan and Zach Micklewright. His overall record stands at 35-13, and he holds a 4-2 record in the WEC. Palaszewski doesn’t really stand out in any one area. His wrestling is solid but not spectacular by any means, and his striking is still a weakness. By contrast, Shalorus comes from a wrestling background, and combines that with a ton of punching power, though he lacks technique. Shalorus came away with a draw against Jamie Varner in the main event of WEC 49 after winning his first two fights in the promotion over Will Kerr and Dave Jansen. He comes in at a serious disadvantage in terms of experience, as Shalorus only has eight fights on his resume as compared to close to 50 for Palaszewski. However, Shalorus’ advantage in wresting and punching power should get him the win here. Shalorus via unanimous decision.
Donald Cerrone vs. Chris Hordecki: In a fight that should be pretty exciting, Donald Cerrone will try to build on the momentum of his win over Jamie Varner at WEC 51 as he takes on Chris Hordecki. Cerrone is 12-3 in his MMA career, and is 5-3-1 in the WEC. He’s had three chances to win the lightweight championship in the WEC, and has fallen short each time. He’s one of the guys who will be somewhat hurt by the merger of the WEC and the UFC, as he likely won’t get an opportunity for the lightweight championship in the much tougher UFC lightweight division. Cerrone is a good Muay Thai striker who utilizes his reach pretty well and also possesses solid submission skills. Hordecki is 16-2 in his MMA career, and is 2-1 since entering the WEC. He prefers to keep his fights standing, and he paid for that in his WEC debut as he was knocked out by Anthony Njokuani at WEC 45. He will be at a significant reach disadvantage in this fight, and that may make the difference. I also think that Cerrone’s grappling skills will come into play if this fight hits the ground. Cerrone should get the win here, and will hope to find success as he swims in the deeper waters of the UFC. Cerrone via TKO in the 2nd.
Dominick Cruz vs. Scott Jorgensen: This fight will result in the first ever UFC bantamweight champion. Cruz is currently the WEC bantamweight champion, and successfully defended it against Joseph Benavidez at WEC 50, winning a close split-decision. Overall, the champion is 16-1 in his MMA career, losing only to Urijah Faber at WEC 26 when Cruz fought in the featherweight division. A win over Jorgensen here would likely set up a rematch between him and Faber, this time in the bantamweight divsion. Cruz’s quick and somewhat awkward striking style makes him hard to prepare for, but his ground game is somewhat untested. Jorgensen is 11-3 in his career, and has won his past five fights. Most recently, Jorgensen defeated Brad Pickett at UFC 50. His main strength is his wrestling, but his striking and grappling has shown great improvement in recent fights. I don’t think he’ll want to get into a kickboxing match with Cruz here though. No matter how much Jorgensen has improved on his feet, I don’t think he can make up the difference between him and Cruz. Jorgensen will have to try and turn this into a wrestling match, but I don’t think he can do that. Cruz should win the striking exchanges en route to a decision victory. Cruz via unanimous decision.
Ben Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis: The winner of this fight will be the last ever WEC lightweight champion and will also earn a shot at the UFC lightweight champion after the promotions merge. Henderson is the current champion, and defended the belt over Donald Cerrone at WEC 48. He’s 13-1 in his MMA career, and is 5-0 in his WEC career. Pettis earned the title shot by winning his last three fights over Danny Castillo, Alex Karalexis and Shane Roller to improve his MMA record to 11-1, and his WEC record to 4-1. Pettis is very comfortable fighting off of his back, and he’s needed to do so due to less than ideal defensive wrestling. However, his offensive wrestling was very effective against Roller, and his quickness advantage definitely showed. Henderson comes from a wrestling background, and is a pretty solid grappler in his own right, as he owns a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. This could prove to be a very close fight, but I think the edge goes to Henderson. He’s been here before and though he’s often underestimated (including by me), he’s a solid fighter with very well-rounded skills. Henderson via unanimous decision.
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Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Sobral Preview and Predictions
Going head-to-head with the finale of the 12 season of The Ultimate Fighter, Strikeforce has a tough battle for coverage this weekend. What it does boast, however, is the better card of the two promotions. Headlined by Dan Henderson vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral, the Strikeforce card won’t set the MMA world on fire, but should provide some interesting matchups.
Antonio Silva vs. Mike Kyle: Kyle is taking this fight on short-notice, replacing Valentijn Overeem who pulled out with an elbow injury. Kyle has fought for the UFC and Strikeforce during his career, with his last Strikeforce appearance coming in 2009 as he was submitted by Fabricio Werdum. In his career, Kyle is 18-7, and has a win over current Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Rafael Cavalcante on his resume. He’s won his past four fights overall. He’ll be at a significant size disadvantage against Silva. The 265 lb Silva comes into the contest with a 14-2 record, and beat former UFC heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski in May at Strikeforce: Heavy Artillery. The American Top Team product combines a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu with a size and reach advantage over most opponents. The size difference will be especially noticable here, as Silva will outweight Kyle by about 50 pounds come Saturday night. I think the size will be too much for Kyle to overcome. Silva via unanimous decision.
Scott Smith vs. Paul Daley: Definitely the preliminary favorite for “Fight of the Night,” Smith and Daley will likely engage in a striking war until someone drops. Smith is coming off a 2nd round KO loss to Cung Le at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Werdum. The fight was a rematch from their memorable fight in December of 2009, where Smith took punishment for almost three full rounds before pulling out a miraculous win late in the fight. Smith stands at 17-7 in his career, and has fought for the UFC and Elite XC along with Strikeforce. Daley will be making his Strikeforce debut after fighting at smaller shows since his release from the UFC. Many fans remember him from the post-fight incident at UFC 113 where Daley punched Josh Koscheck after the bell. The UFC ousted Daley after the incident, despite the fact that the fight with Koscheck was for the #1 contender spot in the UFC’s welterweight division. Nicknamed “Semtex” due to the explosive power in his hands, Daley has struggled with wrestlers during his career, but he won’t have to worry about that here. At 25-9 in his career, Daley clearly has talent, and this is a very important fight for him to get his career back on track. Look for him to do so, as his hands are better than Smith’s, and Smith can’t seem to block punches with anything besides his face. Daley via TKO in the 2nd.
Matt Lindland vs. Robbie Lawler: Where Daley vs. Smith is a battle of two similar styles, Lindland vs. Lawler is a contest of completely contrasting styles. Lindland was a silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling for the United States in the 2000 Olympics and possesses an impressive wrestling background, while Lawler is basically a striker first and foremost. The 40-year old Lindland holds a 22-7 career record, with wins over Ricardo Almeida, Pat Miletich, Jeremy Horn and Carlos Newton during his career in fights for the UFC, IFL, Affliction and Strikeforce amongst others. He’s dropped two of his past three fights however, and didn’t even look too impressive in the one win, a TKO victory over Kevin Casey in May. Lawler has also fought for the UFC, going 4-3 in the promotion between 2002 and 2004. Originally with the Miletich Fighting Systems team, Lawler now fights for the H.I.T. squad founded by Matt Hughes. He dropped a unanimous decision to “Babalu” Sobral in June, but holds a 19-6 career record. I’m just not sure that Lindland can compete at the upper levels of MMA anymore. Lawler is a more well-rounded fighter, and has decent takedown defense to go along with his striking prowess. It will be dangerous for Lindland to try and close the distance to get a takedown, but that’s probably the only chance he has to win this fight. I expect Lawler to keep Lindland at a distance and pummel him until the fight is stopped. Lawler via TKO in the 2nd.
Dan Henderson vs. Renato “Babalu” Sobral: In the main-event, former PRIDE middleweight and welterweight champon Dan Henderson will take on former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion “Babalu” Sobral. Henderson is coming off a disappointing performance against Jake Shields in his Strikeforce debut. Henderson had Shields visably wobbly in the first round but couldn’t finish, and then proceeded to get dominated for the next four rounds in the unanimous decision loss. The loss put a damper on Henderson’s impact with Strikeforce. The former U.S. Olympic wrestler still boasts a 25-8 career record, and has wins over Wanderlei Silva, Michael Bisping, Rich Franklin, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Vitor Belfort on his resume, and also beat Sobral when the two first met in 1999. Despite his wrestling background, Henderson spends a lot of time during his fights looking to connect with a big right hand, but is also content to get into a clinch battle. Sobral last fought in June, winning a unanimous decision over Robbie Lawler at Strikeforce: Los Angeles. The 35-year old Sobral is 36-8 in his career, and has fought for the UFC and Affliction in addition to Strikeforce. He won the Strikeforce light heavyweight championship by defeating Bobby Southworth at Strikeforce: Destruction in 2008, but lost the belt to Gegard Mousasi via 1st round KO just one minute into the fight in 2009. He doesn’t possess any one skill that can match up to Henderson’s right hand, but he is a pretty solid fighter, combining a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu with good striking skills. However, I think his lack of a dominant skillset will hurt him here, as Henderson’s right hand could end Sobral’s night early, and his wrestling and clinch skills could wear down the Brazilian if the fight makes it to the third round. Expect Henderson to bounce back from the loss to Shields with a good performance here. Henderson via unanimous decision.
Popularity: 2% [?]
UFC 123 Preview and Predictions
After a pretty lackluster UFC 122 last weekend, the UFC hopes to rebound with a solid slate of fights at this Saturday’s UFC 123. The event is headlined by two former light heavyweight champions, Lyoto Machida and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, while the co-main event features a third matchup between B.J. Penn and Matt Hughes.
Phil Davis vs. Tim Boetsch: Boetsch returned to the UFC in victorious fashion at UFC 117, winning a unanimous decision over Todd Brown. Boetsch had previously been released after losing a unanimous decision to Jason Brilz at UFC 96, but posted three stoppage wins in various promotions before he got the call back up to the UFC. Though he possesses a college wrestling background, Boetsch features a brawling style. It has been successful for him, as Boetsch has amassed a 12-3 record in his MMA career, and a 3-2 UFC record. Phil Davis was a highly decorated collegiate wrestler at Penn State, where he won a national title in 2008. He’s transitioned his game very well to MMA, as he has started his career 7-0, including a 3-0 record in the UFC. He’s a natural grappler, and has picked up Brazilian Jiu Jitsu very quickly, earning his blue belt under Lloyd Irvin. His striking is still evolving, but it’ll be good enough to get the win here. Boetsch is a tough fighter, so I won’t be surprised if this fight goes the distance. Davis via unanimous decision.
George Sotiropoulos vs. Joe Lauzon: Two Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belts collide in this lightweight battle. Sotiropoulos is probably one win away from earning a title shot, likely at an upcoming card in his native Australia, while Lauzon has won three of his previous four fights. Sotiropoulos has won his first six fights in the UFC, including back-to-back impressive performances over Joe Stevenson and Kurt Pellegrino in his last two fights. His Jiu Jitsu is an absolute thing of beauty. He is one of the more fluid grapplers in the lightweight division, and his transitions and positioning never let his opponents feel safe while on the ground with him. His striking is steadily improving, and he’s still improving on setting up his takedowns. Lauzon beat Gabe Ruediger via armbar at UFC 118, but he is taking a big step up in facing Sotiropoulos in this one. It’s not as if Lauzon hasn’t fought tough competition before however. He entered the UFC with a splash, upsetting Jens Pulver via knockout at UFC 63. He fought Kenny Florian in the main event of UFC Fight Night 13, losing via TKO in the 3rd round. Before he signed with the UFC, Lauzon fought guys such as Rafael Assuncao (loss), Jorge Masvidal (loss), and Mike Brown (win). Lauzon struggled with the striking of Sam Stout at UFC 108, though Sotiropoulos doesn’t feature the kickboxing background that Stout has. However, I think Sotiropoulos can set up his takedowns with his striking, and although Lauzon’s ground game is very good, I think Sotiropoulos’ BJJ is better. He’ll keep himself in good positions on the ground, and end up with the decision win. Sotiropoulos via unanimous decison.
Gerald Harris vs. Maiquel Falcao Goncalves: Harris is on a 10-fight win streak, including winning his first three fights in the UFC. He’s finished all three of his UFC opponents, and won knockout of the night honors courtesy of the slam that ended the night of Dave Branch at UFC 116. He’s extremely powerful, especially with his wrestling and slams. Falcao is making his UFC debut after amassing a 25-3 record in his MMA career. Amazingly enough, only one of his fights has gone to a decision. He’s a product of Chute Boxe Academy, and will be making a big leap in competition here. Expect Falcao to come out aggressive early, as will Harris. If Harris can utilize his strength and wrestling advantage, he should be in good shape. Harris via TKO in the 2nd.
Matt Hughes vs. B.J. Penn: This is the third and rubber match between the two former champions. Penn took the first meeting via 1st round submission at UFC 46, while Hughes took the second matchup via TKO in the 3rd round at UFC 63. Penn is coming off two straight unanimous decision losses to Frankie Edgar. The first fight between Penn and Edgar was very close, and could have easily been scored in favor of Penn. However, in the rematch at UFC 118, Edgar was clearly the better fighter and rightfully was given the nod from the judges. After consecutive losses to the current champion and in a division where he’s beaten the majority of contenders, Penn decided to move up to welterweight to take on Hughes. Hughes has looked as good as he has in a long while, as he’s won his last three fights. Hughes beat Matt Serra at UFC 98, dominated Renzo Gracie at UFC 112, and shocked many by submitting Ricardo Almeida in the first round at UFC 117. The UFC Hall-of-Famer seems to be going through a career rebirth, though it’s hard to imagine him getting back into the title picture. This is a tough fight to call. Penn looked disinterested and lost in his last fight with Edgar, and if he comes in the same way against Hughes, he will lose. However, it’s possible that Edgar is just a bad matchup for him, and that he’ll look like the Penn of old in this one. I’m banking on Penn coming in better shape and in a better frame of mind, but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the Hughes we’ve seen in his past few fights. Hughes via unanimous decision.
Lyoto Machida vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson: The “Machida Era” ended rather abrubtly, as Shogun Rua knocked him stiff in their rematch at UFC 113. The loss was Machida’s first in MMA competition, and ended his first UFC light heavyweight title reign. He’s looking to get back in the title picture, and will take a step in that direction if he can beat Jackson. Jackson looked timid and slow in his fight with Rashad Evans at UFC 114, and many blamed it on a lack of training and too much promotion going on with the “A-Team” movie that Jackson starred in. By many accounts, Jackson has trained harder for this fight, though it’s always hard to decipher the truth from the hyperbole before matchups such as these. Jackson did look to be in good shape at today’s weigh-ins, but I’m not sure how much it will matter. Before the loss to Shogun, Machida basically looked unbeatable. He utilized leg kicks and precision strikes to go along with tremendous defense and a solid ground game to begin his MMA career 16-0, and one loss doesn’t change how talented Machida is. It may have provided some with a blueprint on how to defeat Machida, but the problem is that most fighters don’t have the skillset to take advantage of the few holes in Machida’s game, and Jackson is no different. As much as I like Rampage, I simply don’t think he is quick enough to track down Machida, and his penchant for not checking leg kicks could basically immobilize him pretty quickly. I just think this is a real poor matchup for Jackson, and he’ll struggle to get any offense going against Machida. I’m not sure if Machida will finish Jackson, as it probably depends on how aggressive Jackson fights. I think he’ll be aggressive, and Machida will eventually drop him. Machida via TKO in the 2nd.
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WEC 52 Preview and Predictions
Busy fight week ahead as MMA fans’ attention will be divided between Thursday night’s WEC 52, and UFC 122, which airs on Spike TV Saturday night. First up is WEC 52, which features WEC poster boy Urijah Faber in the main event, as he makes his WEC debut at bantamweight.
Damacio Page vs. Demetrious Johnson: Page is 12-4 in his MMA career, and 3-1 in the WEC. His lone WEC loss came to Brian Bowles at WEC 35, and he has since finished both Marcus Galvao and Will Camuzano in the first round. Page fights under Greg Jackson in New Mexico, and packs serious power into his punches. Page has been injured often in the past year, and hasn’t fought since October 2009. How the layoff will affect him is tough to tell. Johnson is 7-1 in his MMA career, and has begun his WEC career at 1-1. He last fought WEC 51, where he won a unanimous decision over Nick Pace. He comes into this fight at a size disadvantage against Page, and though he comes from a wrestling background, his grappling probably isn’t enough to make up for it. Page can be a solid fighter in the UFC’s bantamweight division after the merger happens, and he should get the win here. Page via TKO in the 2nd.
Joseph Benavidez vs. Wagnney Fabiano: Benavidez will be in his first fight since losing his title fight with Dominick Cruz via split-decision at WEC 50. The loss was Benavidez’s second loss to Cruz, meaning he’ll probably have to wait until there is a new champion to get another shot at the belt. He has a tough test Thursday however, as Fabiano is a top-10 quality bantamweight as well. Benavidez is 12-2 in his career, with both losses coming to Cruz. Sandwiched between the two losses were wins over Rani Yahya and Miguel Torres. Benavidez is pretty solid in all aspects. His wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu are both solid, and his striking is pretty sound technically. Fabiano also only has two losses on his resume. He was considered one of the top bantamweights in the WEC prior to his upset loss to Mackens Semerzier at WEC 43. Since then, Fabiano has gone on to beat both Clint Godfrey and Frank Gomez via unanimous decision. Fabiano is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and is an excellent grappler, as the submission loss to Semerzier was really just a blip on the radar. He’ll be at a disadvantage striking against Benavidez, though he should have a slight reach advantage. This should be a very competitive fight. In the end, I think Benavidez’s quickness and striking advantages will get him the decision victory, though Fabiano definitely has a chance. Benavidez via unanimous decision.
Erik Koch vs. Francisco Rivera: Koch was originally scheduled to face Josh Grispi, but Grispi was pulled from the card and given a title shot against Jose Aldo at UFC 125 in January. The unbeaten Rivera stepped up to take Grispi’s spot. Koch is 10-1 in his MMA career, and sports a 2-1 WEC record. He entered the WEC impressively, getting a unanimous decision win over Jameel Massouh, but then dropped a unanimous decision to top prospect Chad Mendes. Koch rebounded from the loss to Mendes to submit Bendy Casimir at WEC 49. Koch is a solid striker who also boasts a pretty good top game. Rivera will be making his WEC debut after going 5-0 in smaller promotions. The book on Rivera says that he is a pretty dangerous striker, but that he still has holes in his ground game. Look for Koch to try to exploit those holes as much as possible. If he can avoid Rivera’s power early, Koch’s experience and edge on the ground should win him the fight. Koch via unanimous decision.
Chad Mendes vs. Javier Vasquez: Mendes is an good prospect in the WEC/UFC’s featherweight division. He has begun his career with eight straight wins, and has a 3-0 WEC record. He won a decision over Erik Koch at WEC 47 and followed that win up with a first round submission win over Anthony Morrison at WEC 48. Most recently, Mendes won a unanimous decision over tough veteran Cub Swanson at WEC 50. He trains with Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez at Team Alpha Male, and comes from a collegiate wrestling background. He tends to rely on that strength in most of his fights. Vasquez is 14-4 in his MMA career, and has rebounded from back-to-back losses that began his WEC career. After losing to L.C. Davis and Deividas Taurosevicius, Vasquez has rebounded to defeat Jens Pulver and Mackens Semerzier in his last two fights. A Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, Vasquez is very dangerous on the ground. However, he is at a disadvantage against most fighters in the striking department, and this fight should be no different. I expect Mendes to try and utilize his superior wrestling to get this fight to the ground, and then he’ll try and control Vasquez from there. He’ll need to be very wary of Vasquez’s submissions, so I would expect Mendes to be very cautious, even while on top. If he’s careful, he can grind out the decision win. Mendes via uanimous decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Takeya Mizugaki: Urijah Faber’s quest to become the WEC/UFC bantamweight champion begins Thursday night, as he’ll make his bantamweight debut against Takeya Mizugaki. Though this will be Faber’s first fight in the WEC’s bantamweight division, he has competed at that weight before in other organizations. Back his collegiate wrestling days, Faber wrestled at 133 lbs, so he shouldn’t have much of an issue with the weight cut. As he was one of the smaller featherweights in the WEC, the move down should benefit Faber. In his career, Faber is 23-4, though three of those losses have come in his past five fights. He dropped two title fights to Mike Brown before being dominated by Jose Aldo at WEC 48, prompting him to move down. As I mentioned previously, Faber comes from a collegiate wrestling background, and also features an unorthodox striking game that keeps opponents, and sometimes himself, off balance. His submission game is also pretty solid. Mizugaki is a tough fighter who has fought some of the best in the bantamweight division since coming to the WEC. His first WEC fight was a title fight against Miguel Torrest at WEC 40. He lost a hard fought unanimous decision to Torres, but showed that he could hang in there against some of the best in the world. Mizugaki followed the loss to Torres with a controversial split-decision win over Jeff Curran where many thought he lost the fight. After losing via decision to Scott Jorgensen at WEC 45, Mizugaki came back to win a unanimous decision over Rani Yahya at WEC 48. This should be a good test for Faber. Mizugaki will stand and bang with anyone, even if he is losing the battles. The difference in this fight will probably be Faber’s wrestling advantage. We’ll see how the weight cut and the drop in division helps or hurts him as he attempts his first few takedowns. I expect Faber to have the advantage in the striking game, and a large advantage on the ground. It’s a good first fight for Faber in the bantamweight division. He’ll take on a respected fighter who’s fought for the title before, but it is someone that he is fully capable of beating. Faber will get the win here, and is poised for main and co-main events as the WEC and UFC merge in 2011. Faber via unanimous decision.
Popularity: 1% [?]
UFC 121 Observations
UFC 121 was one of the most anticipated MMA events of 2010, and featured a main event with two of the best heavyweights in the world. Here are some of my post-UFC 121 thoughts:
- Tom Lawlor can be a solid low to mid-tier UFC middleweight. He controlled Patrick Cote with his wrestling, and improved to 3-2 in the UFC. Not a championship contender, but he can do well amongst the lower fighters of the division. Cote needs to go back to the drawing board after losing back-to-back contests since returning from injuries suffered at UFC 90.
- Court McGee looked lost in the first round to Ryan Jensen, but showed good toughness and cardio as he came back to dominate the 2nd round and eventually tapped out Jensen with a rear-naked choke in the 3rd. The Ultimate Fighter winner has a lot to improve upon, but still a solid victory in his first fight since the show ended.
- Brendan Schaub asked for a bigger challenge, and the UFC gave him Gabriel Gonzaga. Schaub looked good in the standup, but couldn’t put Gonzaga away. However, he got a unanimous decision win over a former title challenger in a big step up in competition. Now Schaub is asking for Frank Mir, but I don’t think he’s quite ready for a challenge like that. Either way, Schaub is proving to be a prospect to watch in the heavyweight division.
- Tito Ortiz is done. He got outworked and outwrestled by Matt Hamill over the course of three rounds. His striking looked ok in the first round, but got progressively worse as he tired over the next two rounds. Hamill is far from a world-beater, but he still got a victory over a MMA legend. UFC president Dana White said that Hamill has earned himself a top-10 opponent in his next fight. I’m not sure where Ortiz goes from here. White seemed to hint that he could get cut, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him get one more fight.
- Diego Sanchez seemed to get his “mojo” back over the last two rounds of his fight with a tough Paulo Thiago. Thiago won the first round, but Sanchez came back extremely strong in the next two rounds, implementing more of his wrestling and top game. His conditioning also helped, as Thiago seemed to tire as the fight progressed, while Sanchez seemed to be getting stronger. Sanchez discussed possibly dropping back to lightweight after this fight, but with the unanimous decision win, he may take another fight at welterweight first.
- Jake Shields looked awful against Martin Kampmann, but still got the split-decision victory. A reported back injury in his training camp may have limited him, and the reported 20 pound weight cut the day before the fight probably didn’t help either. He typically has slower paced, grinding fights anyway, but this one was especially rough. Shields escaped with a split-decision win, but really didn’t show he had earned a title shot at the winner of Georges St. Pierre/Josh Koscheck. Kampmann wasn’t great in this fight either, but has proven he can hang with most of the top welterweights in the UFC.
Now, on to the main event between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez. The first thing I took away from the fight was that Brock’s gameplan was awful. I didn’t expect him to come out so fast and wild like he did, and I don’t think Velasquez really did either. He did connect with a few of his wild punches, but not enough to really slow Cain down. Lesnar did take Velasquez down twice, but Cain was able to get right back to his feet both times. Here’s part of what I wrote about Lesnar in the preview:
His top game is built entirely on control. He basically refuses to strike until he is certain that he has complete control of his opponent on the bottom, and then begins his assault.
Well, this was the complete opposite of what he did at UFC 121. He tried to advance his position too quickly without establishing top control, and Cain was able to escape to his feet. I believe a big part of this was panic. I really think Lesnar panicked when he couldn’t stop Velasquez with his bull rush early, and didn’t know how to react. Once Velasquez got back to his feet, this fight was all but finished. Velasquez took Lesnar down with about 2:50 left in the round, and had Brock’s back, landing short left and right hands to the side of Lesnar’s head. Lesnar got back up, but was bleeding and looked hurt at this point. He wasn’t anxious to get into a standup exchange with Velasquez, and lunged awkwardly for a takedown. He bounced off of Velasquez, and as Lesnar stumbled across the cage, Velasquez patiently stalked him. Just as Lesnar was getting back to his feet, Velasquez caught him with a couple shots which basically started the end of the night for Lesnar. He delivered a huge knee which clearly hurt Lesnar and dropped him.
Cain clearly learned from Shane Carwin’s fight with Lesnar at UFC 116, because he didn’t waste all of his energy trying to finish Lesnar here. Brock began to get his wits about him, and covered up. Velasquez gave Lesnar just a little space, and Brock tried to grab a leg and get to his feet. Just as he was about to get to his feet, Velasquez caught him again and put him down. Lesnar was basically defenseless at this point, and referee Herb Dean correctly stopped the fight.
Many people are pointing to the fact that Lesnar doesn’t like to get hit. Well, that may be true, but a big part of his problem is that he still hasn’t learned anything about avoiding shots on the ground. He didn’t get a hold of Velasquez or anything, basically just covered up and hoped that Cain would punch himself out like Carwin did. In the standup, I thought Brock came out aggressively, and that’s something that someone who was scared to get hit wouldn’t do. I do belive that he panicked, and also that he gassed himself out going all out like he did for the first two minutes of the round.
Where do they go from here? Velasquez will defend his title against Junior Dos Santos at an upcoming pay-per-view, and he’s already a heavy favorite. For Lesnar? No one seems to really know. Some say he will retire or go back to the WWE. I don’t belive that to be the case. I think he has too much pride to go out like that. Others are suggesting he fight Frank Mir in his next fight. This makes some sense. A fight with Mir would be one he would be favored in, and with it being a rubber match between the two, would also be a pretty big money fight for the UFC. I’m sure the UFC wants to get him back in the title picture as soon as possible, and a win over Mir may do that. With Shane Carwin out for awhile after he undergoes back surgery next week, he may be next in line for a title shot after the Velasquez/JDS fight. UFC officials may be hoping for a JDS win, as his striking is probably better than Cain’s, but his wrestling skills aren’t. Lesnar could, at least in theory, have a big advantage in that department if they fought. The fight with Velasquez could have gone completely differently if Lesnar had just been patient with the first takedown, but Velasquez was impressive and is only getting better right now.
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UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez Preview and Predictions
This Saturday night’s UFC 121 boasts one of the biggest fight cards of the year. The main event features a battle for the heavyweight title between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez. In the co-main event, top welterweight contender Jake Shields will make his UFC debut against Martin Kampmann. And finally, former UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz will square off against Matt Hamill.
Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: Schaub is a truly gifted athlete who showed great promise on the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Since losing to Roy Nelson in the season’s finale, Schaub defeated both Chase Gormley and Chris Tuchscherer in a combined total of one minute and 54 seconds. He features quick and powerful hands with decent technique. His ground game looked decent on this show, but we haven’t really seen it showcased in any of his post-show fights thus far. Gonzaga is an absolutely maddening fighter to analyze. He’s got a ton of talent, but can never seem to put it together for more than a fight or two. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and also possesses solid power in both his hands and his kicks. After beginning his UFC career with four straight wins, including a highlight-reel KO of Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 70, Gonzaga earned a title shot against Randy Couture. Couture beat Gonzaga up for the first two rounds before finally finishing him in the 3rd. Gonzaga then lost to Fabricio Werdum via TKO at UFC 80. After winning two consecutive fights, Gonzaga faced off against rising prospect Shane Carwin at UFC 96. Gonzaga hurt Carwin early, but ended up getting caught with a devastating right hand by Carwin and knocked out just over a minute into the fight. Gonzaga has split his last two fights, getting a win over Tuchscherer and then losing to Junior Dos Santos in the first round of their fight at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones. Gonzaga certainly has the talent to get the better of Schaub, but can he put it together? I’m not so sure he can. Gonzaga generally tends to forego his ground skills to engage in strking battles with guys he can’t beat in a kickboxing match. I think that trend continues here. Schaub has the skills to give Gonzaga fits if this fight stays standing. Schaub via TKO in the 1st.
Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill: Ortiz has really struggled in the past three and a half years, going 0-3-1 in that stretch while battling a contract dispute and numerous injuries. He proclaimed himself healthy for the first time in years prior to his UFC 106 fight with Forrest Griffin. However, after losing a split-decision to Griffin, Ortiz went on to mention a litany of injuries that he was suffering from going into that fight. Now, he’s proclaiming yet again that he is finally healthy, but what will his excuse be if he loses to Hamill? Ortiz was once on of the best light heavyweights on the planet, but injuries, combined with the fact that his game hasn’t evolved with the times, have contributed to his rapid decline. At 35 years old, time is running out for Ortiz to reclaim a spot amongst the division’s top-10, let alone get himself into title contention. Throughout his UFC career, Hamill has established himself as a solid middle-tier light heavyweight. After dropping a fight to close friend Rich Franklin at UFC 88, Hamill has “won” four fights in a row. However, he was getting completely dominated by Jon Jones before Jones was questionably disqualified for illegal elbows. However, Hamill also has wins over Keith Jardine and Mark Munoz in that stretch. Hamill’s game is generally predicated on his wrestling and brute strength, but he has become a better striker over the years. It’s not very pretty, but it has been at least somewhat effective for Hamill. Both of these guys are similar fighters. Both are wrestlers first and foremost, and neither has really strengthened their striking enough to make it a real weapon. I think this fight will come down to conditioning, and I just question Ortiz’s health after all the injuries and layoffs. I think a close fight will turn to Hamill’s favor by the third round. Hamill via unanimous decision.
Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez: Both fighters are coming off disappointing performances in their last contests. Thiago dropped a unanimous decision to Martin Kampmann at UFC 115, while Sanchez lost a unanimous decision to John Hathaway at UFC 114. Before the loss to Kampmann, Thiao looked like he could be a threat in the UFC’s welterweight division. He knocked out Josh Koscheck in his UFC debut, and turned in a solid performance in a loss to Jon Fitch at UFC 100. Thiago then put together consecutive wins over Jacob Volkmann and Mike Swick to get into the title picture. The loss to Kampmann knocked him back towards the pack, but he remains a very dangerous fighter. Thiago is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, and a very solid overall grappler. His striking is sloppy, but does pack a little power. Sanchez looked completely out of it against Hathaway. Perhaps it was because it was his first fight back up at welterweight after taking some fights at lightweight, but he just didn’t seem right from the opening bell. Hathaway is a very good lightweight, so it is possible he was just thrown off his gameplan early and never recovered. Sanchez is now back with Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico after leaving the camp several years ago. This should help Sanchez get his focus back. In the cage, Sanchez’s high-octane offense features a good clinch game, solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and good ground n’ pound. He’s an average striker at best, so I don’t know who would really have the advantage there between these two. This is a tough fight to call. Both fighters are more comfortable on the ground, Thiago due to his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and Sanchez with his good top game. I think Sanchez comes in more focused and prepared, and earns a close decision victory. Sanchez via split decision.
Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann: One of the best welterweights in the world, Jake Shields is finally set to make his UFC debut. Shields has compiled a 25-4 record during his career, with victories over Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Jason “Mayhem” Miller, Mike Pyle, Paul Daley, and Dan Henderson on his resume. The win over Henderson was a dominant one, as he controlled the last four rounds of the fight. The victory was even more impressive considering the fight took place at Middleweight, instead of Shields’ preferred welterweight division. He’s on a 14-fight win streak dating back to 2005. Shields’ main strength is his Jiu Jitsu game and grappling ability. He transitions well, and his wrestling was extremely solid against Henderson. His striking isn’t pretty, and remains his main weakness, but he’s been able to overcome the deficiency with his high level grappling. Kampmann was once one fight away from a title shot against Georges St. Pierre, but a brutal loss to Paul Daley at UFC 103 took him out of the mix. Kampmann has rebounded well, getting consecutive victories over Jacob Volkmann and Paulo Thiago. He’s mainly known for his standup game, which is technically solid but not overly powerful. He’s also pretty good on the ground for someone who comes from a striking background, but he’ll be completely overmatched in that department in this fight. His best chance is to keep this fight standing, but eventually I think Shields will get this fight to the ground. Eventually, Shields will get the submission and put himself on the fast-track to a title shot. Shields via submission in the 2nd.
Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez: A truly intriguing heavyweight title fight will headline UFC 121. Velasquez is seen by many as the opponent who will give Lesnar the most trouble, due to his wrestling pedigree, cardio, and his striking. Velasquez comes into this fight unbeaten in his first eight professional fights, and is 6-0 in the UFC. He knocked out Antoinio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 110, and also has wins over Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell in his UFC run. He’s a former two-time All American wrestler at Arizona State, and he now trains with the American Kickboxing Academy in California. Since turning pro, the 28-year old Velasquez has turned himself into a very capable striker. His technique is very good for a heavyweight, and he showed more power in his win over Nogueira than he had shown previously. How much of that was due to Nogueira’s declining skill is hard to determine however. His camp raves about his cardio, but the only time we’ve really had a chance to see it was in his victory over Kongo at UFC 99. In that fight, Velasquez was rocked several times, but was able to utilize his wrestling and ground n’ pound to escape with a decision victory. His cardio looked good in that fight, but it’s hard for me to say that it is as outstanding as his camp maintains. He will come into this fight with about a 25-30 pound weight disadvantage against Lesnar, which could be helpful in the cardio department, but should give Lesnar the advantage in the wrestling department.
Lesnar came back from a brutal onslaught from Shane Carwin at UFC 116 to submit Carwin in the 2nd round. Lesnar didn’t react very well to getting hit from Carwin, but I attribute at least a small part of that to the long layoff that Lesnar had as he recovered from the diverticulitis that nearly ended his career. I don’t think he did enough sparring in the camp leading up to the Carwin fight, and seemed unprepared to engage in a striking contest. However, Lesnar showed toughness in surviving the attack from Carwin, and also showed good cardio in coming out as the much fresher man in the 2nd round. Getting beaten on for four minutes can really sap your energy, but Lesnar came out stronger in the 2nd round, took Carwin down, and then submitted him with an arm triangle. Lesnar also comes from a collegiate wrestling background, as he was the NCAA heavyweight champion in 2000. His striking is powerful but often awkward and timid. His top game is built entirely on control. He basically refuses to strike until he is certain that he has complete control of his opponent on the bottom, and then begins his assault. His ground game against Frank Mir in their 2nd fight was really something special, and something never really seen before in MMA. He had complete control of a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and basically pounded him out for two rounds before the fight was stopped. I don’t see Velasquez faring much better if he is in a similar position, but Velasquez is also less likely to find himself in that position than Mir was due to his wrestling background.
This is an extremely tough fight to call. I can see Velasquez controlling the striking early and escaping a few dangerous situations en route to a decision victory. I can also see Lesnar getting inside on Velasquez, scoring a takedown, and finishing him off on the ground in short order. I’m not sure that Velasquez has the power to stop Lesnar, but can definitely get a decision. However, Lesnar does have the shot at the knockout due to his power. Velasquez was hurt several times by Kongo, and while Kongo is a much more polished striker than Lesnar, Lesnar is the far more powerful striker of the two. It could only take one punch from Lesnar to change the fight. In the end, I think Lesnar survives some shaky standup exchanges early before taking command with his wrestling and top game late in the 2nd and into the 3rd round before stopping Velasquez. Velasquez is a threat, but I believe many are underestimating how good Lesnar really is, and how much his game has evolved since his career began. Lesnar via TKO in the 3rd.
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