UFC 111 Preview and Predictions
I’ve been looking forward to UFC 111 for quite some time. The card suffered a blow when Thiago Alves was told he couldn’t fight Jon Fitch due to an irregularity in a pre-fight CAT scan. That took one of the best fights of the night off the card, but there’s still plenty of good ones left.
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Fabricio Camoes: This fight was promoted from the prelims to the main card when Alves had to pull out and Ben Saunders stepped up to face Fitch. That left the main card one fight short, and Pellegrino and Camoes got the call. Pellegrino is 14-4 in his MMA career, and is 6-3 in the UFC. He’s won his past three fights over Thiago Tavares, Rob Emerson and Josh Neer and will try to make it four in a row with a win over Camoes. He combines solid wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though his striking remains a weakness. Camoes made his UFC debut at UFC 106, fighting Caol Uno to a draw. Camoes would have probably won the fight, but a point was deducted for an illegal upkick, thereby creating the draw. His overall MMA record stands at 10-4. His striking is probably better than Pellegrino’s, though not by a great margin. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and did pretty well fighting off takedowns from Uno, though Pellegrino is better at that facet than Uno. Pellegrino has established himself as a solid mid-tier lightweight, and I expect him to come out on top in this one. Pellegrino via unanimous decision.
Jim Miller vs. Mark Bocek: Miller is one of the more underrated lightweights in the world. He brings a 16-2 MMA record to the cage tonight and also boasts a 5-1 UFC record. Much like his brother Dan, Jim is a solid all-around fighter. His striking is good enough to get him by, and his wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu are both above average weapons in his game. His only loss in the UFC was to Gray Maynard. Bocek is a respectable 4-2 inside the Octagon, and his main weapon is his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game. The Canadian is a black belt, but his other skills aren’t anywhere good enough to beat a guy like Miller. That being said, Bocek has won three fights in a row, but is making a big jump up in competetion in this one. Miller has the edge in wrestling and striking, and I think his BJJ game is good enough to keep himself out of danger on the ground, especially when he’s in top control. This fight could certainly go the distance, but I’m expecting Miller to finish it before it goes to the cards. Miller by TKO in the 2nd.
Jon Fitch vs. Ben Saunders: Saunders begged for this fight after Thiago Alves had to pull out due to an irregularity in a pre-fight CAT scan. Fitch agreed to the contest and the UFC made it happen. Kudos to both guys for being willing to do this. Saunders was originally slated to go against Jake Ellenberger on the main card, so he’s in shape and ready to go. For him, it’s a great opportunity. A win over Fitch puts the division on notice, while a loss to Fitch won’t damage his prospects any. A win-win situation for Saunders if there ever was one. In addition, he had been preparing for Ellenberger, who is somewhat of a similar fighter to Fitch in terms of wrestling ability and fight styles. Saunders is 8-1 in his MMA career, and is an impressive 4-1 in his UFC career. His only loss was to Fitch’s teammate Mike Swick at UFC 99. He’s a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but mainly relies on his striking ability. His height and reach make things difficult for his opponents, while his Muay Thai weapons were especially evident in his last fight, a TKO win over Marcus Davis at UFC 106. Fitch wants a rematch with Georges St. Pierre, but was never really competitve in their UFC 87 title contest. Since that fight, Fitch has gone 3-0 with wins over Akihiro Gono, Paulo Thiago and Mike Pierce. Those are three solid wins, but none of them really screamed “This guy needs another title shot!” All three fights went to decision, with Fitch getting unanimous nods in each case. Fitch hasn’t finished a fight since submitting Roan Carneiro at UFC Fight Night 10 back in the middle of 2007. He’d like to finish off Saunders in this contest, but it won’t be easy. Fitch generally controls his opponents with his strong wrestling and top control game. His striking isn’t great, but he makes up for it with his toughness and ability to get the fight to the ground when he wants to. That will be especially important in this contest. Saunders will have the advantage on his feet, but his wrestling defense isn’t great and he offers very little offense of his back, as evidenced in his fight against Swick. I think Saunders will have his moments in this one, but expect Fitch to dump him on his back every chance he gets. I don’t expect Fitch to do anything differently than he normally does, which is play it safe and grind out a decision win. Fitch via unanimous decision.
Shane Carwin vs. Frank Mir: This heavyweight fight is for the interim heavyweight championship and a shot at UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar. Mir has made his desire to face Lesnar a third time no secret, but he’ll have to go through Carwin to get there. Carwin was in line to face Lesnar at UFC 106, but was denied the opportunity after Lesnar became ill and had to be hospitalized. Now, to get his title shot back, he’ll have to defeat Mir. Carwin is an impressive 11-0 in his MMA career, and has won his first three fights inside the Octagon. He comes from a wrestling background and was the NCAA Division II national champion in 1999. At 35 years old, he’s getting his start in the UFC at a relatively old age. He’s a big heavyweight, but not quite as big as Lesnar. His striking is sloppy and often flat-footed, but he makes up for it with vicious knockout power. He’s finished his three UFC opponents in a little over three minutes of actual cage time. Carwin’s last win was over Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96. In that fight, he was hurt early by Gonzaga and was in a bad position on the ground as well. He was able to scramble to his feet to deliver the off-balance KO punch. That win over Gonzaga was his only win over a top flight opponent however. His other two UFC wins were over Christian Wellesch and Neil Wain. It’s hard to imagine that he’s ready for a guy like Mir, but his power and wrestling ability make him a threat. Mir won his last fight over Cheick Kongo in impressive fashion at UFC 107. He knocked Kongo down with a strong left hook, then finished him off with a guillotine. After his loss to Lesnar at UFC 100, Mir has made it a mission to bulk up to contend with the UFC’s bigger heavyweights like Carwin and Lesnar. The size he’s put on looks like good muscle, and it doesn’t seem to have affected his movement in any way. Mir’s main strength is his vaunted Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, though he struggled with having Lesnar on top of him at UFC 100. He claims that it was due more towards mistakes on his part rather than because of Lesnar’s size and strength, and vows to correct those mistakes. Mir has also improved his striking a great deal in recent years, though I think he’s beginning to fall in love with it a little too much. One shot from Carwin could be all it takes to end Mir’s night, so he has to be careful. I know many people think Carwin can do to Mir the same thing that Lesnar did, but I just don’t see it. To me, this is a lopsided fight. I think Mir is still a legit top-five heavyweight in the world, whereas Carwin is being vastly overrated due to his size and his knockout over Gonzaga. I think Mir can pick Carwin apart on his feet, though as I mentioned, he has to be a little careful with Carwin’s power. On the ground, I haven’t really seen Carwin there enough yet to say if he can be as dominating as Lesnar, but I think all signs point to no. I think Mir can take this fight relatively easily. Mir via submission in the 1st.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Dan Hardy: St. Pierre is one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world. After taking his title back from Matt Serra at UFC 83, St. Pierre has defended his belt three more times, defeating Jon Fitch at UFC 87, B.J. Penn at UFC 94 and Thiago Alves at UFC 100. He won the fights against Fitch and Alves via unanimous decision, though they were both dominating decisions. GSP’s win over Penn was a TKO due to Penn’s corner throwing in the towel after the fourth round. GSP is 19-2 in his career, with the losses coming to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra, both of which he avenged later in his career. His explosive wrestling is his strongest attribute, though his striking is underrated and his submission game is as well. He’s added considerable muscle mass in the past few months, and he now walks around at over 190 lbs making him a good sized welterweight. Hardy is getting this title shot a bit prematurely according to some, but he is 4-0 in the UFC with wins over Rory Markham, Akihiro Gono, Mike Swick and Marcus Davis. Overall, Hardy is 24-6 in his career. He mainly relies on his striking, though I feel his ground game is underrated. He’s not a great wrestler, but as a grappler he is pretty solid. I doubt you’ll see him submit St. Pierre, but all he really wants to do is negate St. Pierre’s top game long enough so he can scramble back to his feet. I think the only way that Hardy can win this fight is with the fight standing, so he needs to do whatever he can to keep himself upright. The UFC has spent a great deal of time, energy and money trying to tell us that Hardy is a worthwhile challenger to St. Pierre, but I have a hard time seeing it. GSP has beaten three fighters in a row who are far above Hardy’s class. I know that anything can happen, but I really don’t even think that Hardy’s standup game is a huge threat to St. Pierre. Hardy has good power in his hands, but nothing really overwhelming. I think St. Pierre will dominate this fight for as long as it goes until he decides to finish it. St. Pierre via TKO in the 2nd.
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Nate Diaz over Rory Markham via submission in the 2nd
Matt Brown over Ricardo Almeida via TKO in the 2nd
Rodney Wallace over Jared Hamman via unanimous decision
Rousimar Palhares over Tomasz Drawl by submission in the 1st
Matt Riddle over Greg Soto via unanimous decision
Popularity: 3% [?]
UFC on Versus 1 Recap and Analysis
UFC on Versus 1 showcased two up-and-coming prospects who will eventually become title contenders against two UFC veterans trying to keep their place near the top of their divisions. In both instances, youth won out.
Heavyweight prospect Junior dos Santos, 4-0 in the UFC heading into this fight, faced a former title contender and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt in Gabriel Gonzaga. Some were picking Gonzaga due to his superiority on the ground, but dos Santos proved from the opening bell that if you try and strike with him, you will be in for a short night. Just under four minutes into the fight, dos Santos caught Gonzaga with an overhand left that floored him. A few follow up shots finished Gonzaga’s night. The impressive showing from dos Santos should put him in line for a future title shot. Some are suggesting a potential Cain Velasquez/dos Santos fight with the winner getting a shot at the title after the winner of this weekend’s Frank Mir/Shane Carwin showdown.
In the main event of the evening, Jon Jones, one of the top prospects in all of MMA, took on former top prospect Brandon Vera. Early on, Jones showed that his offensive Greco-Roman wresting would be difficult to deal with as he threw Vera to the ground in the opening minute. The fight soon moved back standing, but Jones got another takedown soon thereafter. This time, Vera landed an illegal upkick that briefly paused the action, before the fight resumed with Jones in the top position. From there, Jones landed a hard elbow strike to the right side of Vera’s face. The shot really hurt Vera, as he quickly turned to his stomach and covered up. A few more strikes landed from Jones before the fight was stopped. After the fight, it was revealed that the Jones elbow broke three bones in Vera’s face. Jones shouldn’t be rushed into title contention just yet, but will likely face a top 10 light heavyweight in his next fight as the UFC slowly moves him up the ladder.
In other main card action, Cheick Kongo battered former UFC heavyweight title contender Paul Buentello from the opening bell, eventually forcing Buentello to tap out from strikes early in the third round. In the opening fight of the evening, Alessio Sakara battered James Irvin early and often. Irvin, who was making the weight cut to middleweight for the first time, clearly looked weak at the weigh ins and at the fight itself. A left hook from Sakara in the middle of the first round caught Irvin right on the eye, forcing a stop to the contest. Sakara was awarded the TKO victory and has now won three straight fights.
In preliminary card action, lightweight Clay Guida returned to the win column by submitting Shannon Gurgerty via arm triangle in the 2nd round. The Ultimate Fighter season 10 finalist Brendan Schaub fought for the first time since losing to Roy Nelson in the finale, and got a 1st round TKO win over Chase Gormley. Finally, in a welterweight fight, John Howard moved to 4-0 in his UFC career by surviving an early test from newcomer Daniel Roberts to knock him out two minutes into the fight.
Full Results:
MAIN CARD
Jon Jones def. Brandon Vera via TKO – Round 1, 3:19
Junior Dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga via KO – Round 1, 3:53
Cheick Kongo def. Paul Buentello via TKO – Round 3, 1:16
Alessio Sakara def. James Irvin via TKO – Round 1, 3:01
PRELIMINARY CARD
Clay Guida def. Shannon Gugerty via submission - Round 2, 3:40
Vladimir Matyushenko def. Eliot Marshall via split decision (30-27, 28-29, 30-27)
Darren Elkins def. Duane Ludwig via TKO- Round 1, 0:44
John Howard def. Daniel Roberts via knockout – Round 1, 2:01
Brendan Schaub def. Chase Gormley via TKO – Round 1, 0:47
Mike Pierce def. Julio Paulino via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Jason Brilz def. Eric Schafer via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Photo courtesy: The Denver Post
Popularity: 2% [?]
UFC on Versus 1 Preview and Predictions
For fans of the NHL and MMA, the deal between Direct TV and Versus couldn’t come soon enough. For UFC fans in particular, this week’s deal will enable millions of people the opportunity to watch the first UFC event on Versus tonight. The card is headlined by Jon Jones, who is considered to be one of the top prospects in all of MMA. His opponent will be a guy who was once in Jones’ position as one of the most hyped prospects in MMA, Brandon Vera. In the co-main event of the evening, rising heavyweight prospect Junior dos Santos will take on Gabriel Gonzaga, a heavyweight who’s already had a title shot but is looking to regain his place amongst the division’s elite.
Alessio Sakara vs. James Irvin: The night will begin with a pair of middleweights in Sakara and Irvin. Both fighters once competed in the light heavyweight division, and Irvin was actually a heavyweight at one time in his career. If you saw the pictures of Irvin at yesterday’s weigh ins, it appears the weight cut down to 185 was pretty tough on him. Sakara is coming off consecutive wins over Thales Leites and Joe Vedepo, which is significant considering the last time he strung two victories together was in 2005. He was scheduled to fight in December against Rousimar Palhares at The Ultimate Finale 10, but pulled out with an injury. Sakara comes from a boxing background and trains at American Top Team. Irvin is also primarily a striker. He hasn’t fought since July of 2008 after knee injuries have made him withdraw from several scheduled fights. His last fight was a knockout loss about one minute into his fight with Anderson Silva. Silva was moving up to light heavyweight to face Irvin in the main event of a show that was countering Affliction: Banned. Irvin was very tenative in the opening minute before thowing a kick that was caught by Silva. After Silva caught the kick, he delivered a right hand that knocked Irvin down. Silva quickly pounced and finished Irvin off. The loss dropped Irvin’s record to 14-5. He has significant power, and that should be even more evident at 185, but has numerous holes in his game including stamina and defensive wrestling. Irvin should have the power advantage over Sakara, and neither guy possesses a world class chin, but I think if the fight gets past the first round, Sakara will have the advantage. I expect an early flurry from Irvin, but Sakara will survive to finish the fight in the 2nd. Sakara via TKO in the 2nd.
Cheick Kongo vs. Paul Buentello: Kongo is looking to get back into the win column after a first round loss to Frank Mir at UFC 107, while Buentello is trying to hang onto his UFC contract after losing a decision to Stefan Struve also at UFC 107. Kongo was a fringe contender to the UFC’s heavyweight title after after winning three consecutive fights over Antoni Hardonk, Mostapha Al Turk and Dan Evensen. Those victories improved his UFC record to 7-2 before he faced rising heavyweight contender Cain Velasquez. Kongo dropped Velasquez at the beginning of each round, but Velasquez’s huge wrestling advantage allowed him to survive the onslaught. Once Velasquez had Kongo on the ground, Kongo seemed lost and didn’t do much in the way of defending himself. Wrestling has always been a weakness of Kongo’s. In the fight with Mir, Kongo was dropped with a hook before Mir locked on a guillotine to get the finish. Kongo shouldn’t have to worry too much about the ground game in this one, as Buentello is another heavyweight who likes to slug it out. Buentello signed with the UFC after Affliction folded. In that promotion, Buentello had gone 2-0, defeating Gary Goodridge and Kirill Sidelnikov. Before the loss to Struve, Buentello had won six of his past seven fights dating back to 2006, though the competition he faced was pretty lackluster. He had a shot for the UFC heavyweight title in his first run with the company, but lost in the first round to champion Andrei Arlovski. For his career, Buentello holds a 27-11 record, with a 3-2 UFC record. Kongo should have the advantage in this one. He’s a better overall striker than Buentello, and his ground n’ pound game is actually quite good if the fight hits the ground with Kongo on top. This seems like a fight that Kongo should win rather easily. Kongo via TKO in the 2nd.
Junior dos Santos vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: This is a tough one for me as I’m a fan of both guys. Dos Santos made a splash onto the UFC scene by knocking out Fabricio Werdum in a tremendous upset at UFC 90. Since then, Dos Santos has proven that the knockout win over Werdum was no fluke by defeating Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop and Gilbert Yvel, with none of those fights going the distance. He trains at Black House alongside the Nogueira brothers, Anderson Silva, Lyoto Machida and Demian Maia. Along with his solid striking and knockout power, dos Santos is continuing to learn Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. He is currently a purple belt, but he’ll be facing a decorated black belt in Gonzaga in this contest. I’m not sure how dos Santos’ BJJ will hold up to Gonzaga, but with all the talented BJJ fighters he trains with, I’m banking on the fact that he’ll have at least solid defensive jiu jitsu to keep him out of too much trouble. Dos Santos is probably on the list of possible title challengers for Brock Lesnar after Shane Carwin, Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir, and a win here will keep him right in the mix. Gonzaga fought for the heavyweight title against Randy Couture at UFC 74, but lost via TKO in the 3rd round. He followed that up with another loss, this time to Fabricio Werdum at UFC 80. Gonzaga strung together consecutive victories before facing Shane Carwin at UFC 96. Gonzaga hurt Carwin early and had top position on him when the fight moved to the ground, but Carwin was able to escape to his feet where he connected with a flat-footed jab that buckled and dropped Gonzaga. The first-round loss to Carwin was a damaging blow to Gonzaga’s title shot hopes. He returned to the Octagon to face Chris Tuchscherer at UFC 102 in a fight that was marred by a low blow that nearly ended the fight. Tuchscherer was eventually able to continue, but was still hurt when Gonzaga connected with a head kick and subsequent strikes that followed the fight. Gonzaga is a solid wrestler and extremely talented Jiu Jitsu guy, but sometimes he falls in love too much with his striking. In this contest, if he stands too long with dos Santos, it’ll end quickly. I think dos Santos has the clear edge in the striking game, and if the fight hits the ground, I think dos Santos has enough knowledge to keep himself out of danger. Junior dos Santos via unanimous decision.
Brandon Vera vs. Jon Jones: Jones will be looking to continue his ascent up the light heavyweight ranks as he takes on Vera. Jones last fought Matt Hamill at The Ultimate Finale 10. He dominated that fight, but ended up losing via disqualification because of illegal elbow strikes delivered while he was mounted on Hamill. After the fight, it seemed as if the reason Hamill wasn’t able to continue was because of a shoulder injury suffered on a takedown from Jones, but the DQ loss stood. Even though it’s a loss on his record, the performance did nothing but help show that Jones is the real deal. In his young career, Jones is an impressive 9-1 in his career, with wins in the UFC over Andre Gusmao, Stephan Bonnar, and Jake O’Brien. He comes from a wrestling background, and his Greco-Roman skills have really been showcased in his UFC career, especially in the win over Bonnar. His striking is unorthodox, and is aided by his tremendous reach. After beginning his MMA career 9-0 along with four straight wins in the UFC, Brandon Vera seemed to be on the fast track to stardom. A contract dispute, a lackluster performance in his return fight against Tim Sylvia and a subsequent loss to Fabricio Werdum derailed Vera’s hype train. The Vera hype was completely gone after an awful performance in a win over Reese Andy, a tenative performance in a loss to Keith Jardine, and a non-descript win over Krzysztof Soszynski at UFC 102. Vera most recently fought Randy Couture at UFC 105. It was a very close fight, and though the decision went to Couture, Vera could have easily gotten the nod. However, his performance was much of the same as we had been seeing from him ever since the contract dispute. He just seems tenative and hasn’t shown many flashes of the talented striker with the killer instinct version of himself that we saw so much of early in his career. Is it too late for him? No, it’s not. But I’m not going to buy into the same things we hear from Vera before every fight. You can only hear that Vera is going to come in like the old version of himself and come out with reckless abandon so many times without actually seeing it before you finally stop believing that it’s ever going to come back. He certainly has the skills to compete with Jones in this fight. His striking is overall better than Jones’, though Jones’ reach advantage and unorthodox striking confuse most opponents. Vera’s an underrated wrestler and grappler as well. I just think that Jones is a better fighter than the current version of Vera. Jones via unanimous decision.
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Clay Guida over Shannon Gugerty via unanimous decision
Vladimir Matyushenko over Eliot Marshall via unanimous decision
Darren Elkins over Duane Ludwig via submission in the 2nd
John Howard over Daniel Roberts via unanimous decision
Brendan Schaub over Chase Gormley via TKO in the 1st
Mike Pierce over Julio Paulino via TKO in the 2nd
Eric Schafer over Jason Brilz via submission in the 2nd
Popularity: 8% [?]
WEC 47 Preview and Predictions
WEC 47 is taking the UFC’s old spot in Columbus, Ohio during the Arnold Sports Festival. The UFC decided to skip scheduling an event in Columbus this year, despite a string of recent successful Pay-Per-Views there, but MMA fans in the area will be excited to see a card filled with a title fight and a couple of former title holders. You can watch the event this Saturday night on Versus.
Karen Darabedyan vs. Bart Palaszewski: Darabedyan made his WEC debut at WEC 44, earning an impressive decision win over former lightweight champion Rob McCullough. In that fight, Darabedyan got the better of the striking over a pretty talented opponent and also utilized his extensive Judo background to take the fight to the ground on a few occasions. Darabedyan is 9-1 in his career and is now set to take on another WEC veteran in Palaszewski. Palaszewski won a split decision over Anthony Pettis at WEC 45 to improve his overall record to 33-13 and his WEC record to 2-2. He is mainly known as a wrestler, but has struggled with fellow wrestlers such as Ricardo Lamas. He doesn’t possess a great threat off his back, and Darabedyan should hold a significant striking advantage in the contest. One point of concern is Darabedyan’s conditioning. In the fight against McCullough, Darabedyan really slowed down at the end of the 2nd round and into the 3rd. Part of it could have been due to an adreneline dump because it was his first fight on the big stage of the WEC, but I expect him to come in better condition this time. Palaszewski is a tough opponent and should give Darabedyan a tough fight, but I expect Darabedyan to come out on top. Darabedyan via unanimous decision.
L.C. Davis vs. Deividas Taurosevicius: Davis will try to improve his record to 3-0 in the WEC against Taurosevicius in this one. Davis won a split-decision over Javier Vasquez at WEC 42, then followed up with a unanimous decision win over Diego Nunes at WEC 44. Overall Davis holds a 15-2 record. He is known primarily as a wrestler, and he’s had four consecutive fights go to a decision. His striking is still an issue, and he doesn’t really have the skillset to put away guys early. Taurosevicius is 12-3 in his MMA career, and is 2-0 in the WEC. He defeated Javier Vasquez by split-decision in his debut for the company, and recently defeated Mackens Semerzier via unanimous decision at WEC 46. In that fight, the talented Semerzier really struggled to get anything going against Taurosevicius, who displayed a pretty solid ground game and decent striking. I think that Taurosevicius is more well-rounded than Davis, who really lacks enough offense to put this fight away. Taurosevicius via unanimous decision.
Jens Pulver vs. Javier Vasquez: This could be the last gasp for Pulver, who after dropping his past four fights and six of his last seven, is in serious danger of being dropped from the company. Pulver is the former UFC lightweight champion, and boasts a career record of 22-12-1. While he was with the UFC, Pulver held significant wins over Caol Uno and B.J. Penn, but left the company in a contract dispute in 2002. He went overseas and fought for various promotions including PRIDE, but returned to the UFC in 2006. He coached the fifth season of The Ultimate Fighter opposite B.J. Penn, and was beaten by Penn on The Ultimate Finale 5. After that fight, Pulver dropped down to featherweight and entered the WEC, where he defeated Cub Swanson his first time out. However, Pulver was beaten by Urijah Faber in a title fight at WEC 34, and was then beaten by Leonard Garcia, Faber again, and most recently Josh Grispi at WEC 41. None of those last three fights even made it out of the first round. Vasquez has dropped his first two fights with the company to L.C. Davis and Deividas Taurosevicius via decision, and holds a 13-4 overall record. He generally relies on his wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu background, and his striking is average at best. If this fight was three years ago, Pulver probably takes it. However, I just can’t pick Pulver anymore until he proves he can still hang in there with WEC caliber fighters. Vasquez via TKO in the 2nd.
Miguel Torres vs. Joseph Benavidez: Torres desperately wants a rematch with Brian Bowles for the bantamweight title, but to earn that shot, he’ll have to overcome a stiff challenge from another top bantamweight in Benavidez. Up until Bowles shocked him at WEC 42, Torres was widely considered one of the top five pound-for-pound fighters in the world. He had run off 17 straight victories dating back to 2004, and only two of those fights even went the distance. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Carlson Gracie Sr., and in recent years began to rely more heavily on his striking. He spent time training with Mark Dellagrotte in preparation for this fight. In his career, Torres is 37-2, with 31 of those wins coming by either TKO or submission. Benavidez is an impressive 11-1 in his MMA career, with the only loss coming to Dominick Cruz at WEC 42. He’s 3-1 in the WEC, and trains with Urijah Faber at Team Alpha Male. He comes from a wrestling background but has rounded out his game a great deal since entering the WEC. However, he’s going to have a tough time in this fight. Torres is the much better striker and will have a significant reach advantage and if the fight goes to the ground, Benavidez definitely has to be aware of Torres’ superior Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. I don’t think Benavidez will really feel comfortable in this fight no matter where it goes, and that’s never a good feeling for a fighter. I think Torres will come out to prove a point and show that he deserves a shot at his title. Torres via submission in the 2nd.
Brian Bowles vs. Dominick Cruz: Bowles has had an extended layoff after breaking his hand in the upset victory over Torres at WEC 42 that won him the bantamweight title. Bowles is 8-0 in his MMA career, and has reeled off five straight wins in the WEC. He comes from a wrestling background, but as he showed in his fight with Torres, his striking has improved a great deal and he has definite knockout power to go along with his other skills. He’s in for a tough challenge in Cruz, who is 14-1 in his MMA career, and 4-1 in his WEC career with his lone loss coming to Urijah Faber at WEC 28. He’s won his last four fights via unanimous decision which shows a few things. One, he can dominate his opponents on the ground and while striking and two, he doesn’t really have finishing ability. That could come into play in this fight. Cruz relies on using his reach to control the fight on his feet, using jabs and kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. Bowles will have to get inside on Cruz to be able to utilize his power advantage. I believe the ground game is pretty equal between the two. This should be an outstanding fight, but the difference is the power that Bowles possesses. Bowles via TKO in the 3rd.
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Scott Jorgensen over Chad George via TKO in the 2nd
Chad Mendes over Erik Koch via split decision
Leonard Garcia over George Roop via TKO in the 1st
Fredson Paixao over Courtney Buck via submission in the 2nd
Danny Castillo over Anthony Pettis via unanimous decision
Ricardo Lamas over Bendy Casimir via TKO in the 1st
Popularity: 96% [?]
UFC Signs Boxing Veteran James “Lights Out” Toney
After weeks of calling out, following around, and stalking Dana White, heavyweight boxer James “Lights Out” Toney has agreed to a contract with the UFC. The deal is rumored to be a multi-fight contract, but if the contract is similar to others issued by the UFC, the company has the right to terminate the deal after a loss.
White has been considering signing Toney for quite some time, and Toney has pressured White to do so numerous times. Toney confronted White after UFC 107 in December as well as after UFC 108 in January. A meeting between the two in February ended without an agreement in place, with Toney having this to say afterwards:
Dana White is a straight up ho! He makes me a 5-fight offer for chump change and said I can’t box anymore if I accept it. He must have lost his damn mind. I’m the best of both worlds. Anyone in either sport that wants to come see me, we can do this.
Either White upped the offer after that meeting, or Toney decided that “chump change” was good enough. Reports indicate that Toney will be allowed to continue his boxing career along with attempting a UFC career, so perhaps that was all that Toney was seeking.
Toney is still considered a heavyweight champion in boxing, though the titles he currently holds are considered lesser titles (NABO and IBA). The 41-year old heavyweight has a career 72-6-3 record, and last defeated Matthew Greer in September. In his career, Toney has also held titles in the 160, 168 and 190lb weight classes.
White has long been a boxing fan and had kind words to say about Toney in a statement today:
A lot of pro boxers have made a lot of noise about how they would do in mixed martial arts, but nobody on the level of a James Toney has been willing to back up his talk. He’s a legend whose boxing record speaks for itself, and he’s a guy who I’ve got a lot of respect for.
White added that he didn’t have any firm plans as of yet for Toney’s first fight, though late tonight one former UFC champion said that he would like to fight Toney. On Twitter, Randy Couture had this to say:
I hope I’m the first guy they call to fight tony !
That seems like an awfully stern test for someone who really hasn’t trained MMA, but if Toney truly wants to test himself against the best, perhaps a fight with Couture makes sense.
Popularity: 8% [?]
UFC 110 Recap-Velasquez Stops Nogueira, Silva decisions Bisping
UFC 110 was the organization’s first event in Australia, and from the crowd reaction, it was definitely a success. It was a very entertaining night of fights, and the Australian crowd really got into the event, assuring a future venture into the region.
Cain Velasquez proved me and everyone else who doubted his power wrong by taking out one of the best heavyweights of all-time in Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. From the opening bell, Velasquez was the better and faster striker. He consistently beat Nogueira to the punch, and with the success he was having on his feet, he felt no need to venture into the danger zone that is Nogueira’s guard. The end came about halfway through the first round when Velasquez connected on a right hook to the chin of Nogueira, followed by a left hook to the temple. Nogueira went down in a heap and a few follow up shots from Velasquez finished him off.
UFC president Dana White said that Velasquez is on “standby” for a title shot right now, meaning if the winner of the Frank Mir/Shane Carwin fight at UFC 111 is too injured to fight Brock Lesnar in early summer, then Velasquez would get the title shot instead. If he doesn’t fight Lesnar next, look for Velasquez to take on the winner of the Junior dos Santos/Gabriel Gonzaga matchup at UFC on Versus I, scheduled for March 21st.
In the co-main event of the evening, Wanderlei Silva got a much needed win, getting the unanimous decision nod over Michael Bisping. Bisping once again seemed hesitant to engage with the more powerful Silva, but utilized takedowns and good movement to win the first round. The second round seemed to be in Bisping’s favor as well, until Silva nearly finished him with a guillotine in the closing seconds of the round. That probably pushed the round into Silva’s column. It could be argued that the third round was going Bisping’s way too until Silva dropped him in the closing seconds. Silva could have finished the fight right there if the bell hadn’t sounded. Silva will likely take on another contender in the UFC’s middleweight division, while Bisping will face another mid-level middleweight to get back on track.
George Sotiropoulos impressed the hometown crowd as well as UFC fans from across the world with his dominating unanimous decision victory over Joe Stevenson. Throughout the fight, Sotiropoulos showed the difference between black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, as his Jiu Jitsu was clearly supperior to Stevenson’s. Sotiropoulos controlled the vast majority of the fight and showed a very solid striking game as well. At 5-0 in the UFC, Sotiropoulos will probably get a fringe title contender in the lightweight division, perhaps someone like Tyson Griffin or Sean Sherk. Stevenson, who had looked much improved since joining Greg Jackson’s camp, will go back to the drawing board in hopes of eventually getting another title shot in the lightweight division.
Ryan Bader showed continued improvement in his all-around game, getting a KO victory over Keith Jardine in the third round of their contest. Bader got the takedown in the first round, and spent a lot of time in top control, dropping punches and elbows down on Jardine. Jardine did a good job of defending takedowns in the second round, but Bader’s takedown in the closing seconds of the round probably gave the nod to Bader again. In the third, Bader got a slam on Jardine, but Jardine scrambled to his feet nicely. Bader landed a right hook that was followed by a knee and a left hook that dropped and finished Jardine. It was an impressive performance for the former Ultimate Fighter winner, and one that should earn him a shot against another fringe light heavyweight contender next. An opponent such as Thiago Silva would be a good test for Bader. Jardine’s future is much cloudier as he dropped his third straight fight. I don’t expect the UFC to release him, but he’ll definitely need a win the next time out or he’ll be in some serious danger.
In the opening fight of the PPV, Mirko Cro Cop easily dispatched of the overmatched Anthony Perosh after the doctor stopped the fight between the second and third rounds. Perosh replaced Ben Rothwell just days prior to the contest, giving him very little time to prepare. Cro Cop likely won the first round 10-8, as he battered Perosh throughout the round. In the second round, Cro Cop cut Perosh with a pretty vicious elbow. The fight was allowed to continue after the doctor looked at the cut, but after Cro Cop delivered more punishment, the fight was called off after the round. It still wasn’t a vintage Cro Cop performance, he definitely still looked slow to me, but a win is a win. Cro Cop still thinks he’s among the division’s best, but don’t expect the UFC to feed him to a top contender yet. Dana White’s post-fight comments point to a future fight against Rothwell, the man he was suppossed to fight last night.
Full Results:
Cain Velasquez def. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira via knockout (punches) – Round 1, 2:20
Wanderlei Silva def. Michael Bisping via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
George Sotiropoulos def. Joe Stevenson via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Ryan Bader def. Keith Jardine via knockout (punch) – Round 3, 2:10
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic def. Anthony Perosh via TKO (cut) – Round 2, 5:00
Prelims
Krzysztof Soszynski def. Stephan Bonnar via TKO (cut) – Round 3, 1:04
Chris Lytle def. Brian Foster via submission (knee-bar) – Round 1, 1:41
C.B. Dollaway def. Goran Reljic via unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
James Te Huna def. Igor Pokrajac via TKO (strikes) – Round 3, 3:26
*Photo courtesy Sherdog.com
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UFC 110 Preview and Predictions
UFC 110 is the first of many exciting UFC events that will take place between now and early summer. After injuries derailed the past two cards, UFC 110 has held up pretty well. The event marks the UFC’s first ever trip to Australia, and though there are no title fights, the main card is loaded with evenly matched fights that could determine future challengers in the heavyweight, middleweight and lightweight divisions.
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Anthony Perosh: Cro Cop’s scheduled opponent, Ben Rothwell, was forced to drop out of the contest this afternoon due to an illness he’s been battling. Perosh is taking this fight on basically two days notice. Perosh is a native Australian and has prior UFC experience, dropping back-to-back fights in 2006 to Jeff Monson and Christian Wellisch. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but his standup game is extremely limited, making this a very dangerous matchup for Perosh. Overall, Perosh is 10-5 in his career, with seven of those wins coming via submission. Cro Cop was one of the most dangerous strikers in all of MMA in the early to mid- 2000s. During that time, Cro Cop defeated the likes of Wanderlei Silva, Josh Barnett and Mark Coleman among many others. His career record stands at 25-7. He lost to Junior dos Santos at UFC 103 via TKO in the 3rd round, dropping his UFC record to 2-3. After the dos Santos loss, Cro Cop flirted with retirement, but decided to change up his training routine in hopes that it will get him back on track. The fight with Rothwell would have given us an indication of whether the new training was helping, but a win here over Perosh won’t really prove much. This one probably won’t last very long. Cro Cop via TKO in the 1st.
Keith Jardine vs. Ryan Bader: Bader, the winner of season eight of The Ultimate Fighter, will try to improve his overall record to 11-0 as he takes on Jardine. Bader comes from a wrestling background and was a two-time All American wrestler at Arizona State University. In the finale of the reality show, Bader earned a first round TKO victory over Vinny Magalhaes. He followed that victory up with wins over Carmelo Marrero and Eric Schafer. This will be by far the toughest test of his career. Jardine is coming off a 1st round TKO loss to Thiago Silva at UFC 102. The loss was Jardine’s second consecutive defeat, as he also lost to Quinton “Rampage” Jackson in the main event of UFC 96. Overall Jardine is 15-6 in his MMA career, and he sports a 6-5 record in the UFC. He’s defeated guys like Forrest Griffin, Chuck Liddell and Brandon Vera during his career, but has also lost fights that he should have won such as to Houston Alexander at UFC 71. The Greg Jackson trained fighter has shown a suspect chin in the past, but is also a tough matchup for anyone due to his unorthodox striking and overall skill set. Many people are giving Bader the nod here and he is the Vegas favorite as well. I think Jardine’s takedown defense is being taken for granted, and the huge leap up that Bader will face here in going from Marrero and Schafer to Jardine needs to also be taken into account. I think Jardine can keep Bader off balanced with his striking, and his takedown defense is good enough to keep him standing for much of the fight. I think a decision is likely, but I think it goes Jardine’s way. Jardine via unanimous decision.
Joe Stevenson vs. George Sotiropoulos: Sotiropoulos is also taking a big step up in competition in this contest, going from bottom feeders of the lightweight division to a guy who fought for the lightweight title at UFC 80 in Joe Stevenson. Stevenson was the winner of the second season of The Ultimate Fighter, but lost his first post-Ultimate Fighter fight to Josh Neer. Stevenson then went on a four-fight winning streak, earning him a shot at B.J. Penn for the lightweight title. Stevenson was completely outclassed by Penn, who won the fight via rear naked choke in the 2nd round after Penn opened a huge gash on Stevenson’s head that bled profusely. Stevenson returned to action at UFC 86, submitting Gleison Tibau in the 2nd round. However, Stevenson lost his next two fights to Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez, effectively removing him from title contention. Stevenson has rebounded with consecutive victories over Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher to improve his MMA record to 31-10 and his UFC record to 8-4. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though he doesn’t seem to utilize it very well during his fights. He’s also a solid wrestler, but struggles with his striking from time to time. Sotiropoulos was a member of the 6th season of The Ultimate Fighter, where he lost in the semifinals to Tommy Speer. He was signed to a UFC contract and has gone 4-0 in his first four contests. His last fight was a submission victory over Jason Dent at UFC 106 in November. He’s also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and he uses it very well in the cage as he showcased in the Dent fight. He’s been working on his standup game, but it’s still a weakness of his. Stevenson doesn’t showcase a very diversified striking game either, so I’m not sure who will have the advantage standing. This fight may come down to whether or not Sotiropoulos can avoid being put on his back by Stevenson. There’s a very strong possibility that Stevenson can smother Sotiropoulos for three rounds and earn a victory. However, I think Sotiropoulos can pull off the upset. He’s fighting in his home country and will definitely have the crowd support, but also has a skill set that can cause Stevenson problems. Sotiropoulos via submission in the 2nd round.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Michael Bisping: Silva is in a bit of a tailspin, dropping five of his past six fights, and is 1-3 in his second stint with the UFC. He last fought at UFC 99, dropping a close decision to Rich Franklin in the main event. He also has lost fights to Rampage Jackson and Chuck Liddell since he came back to the UFC in 2007. He was one of the most dominant fighters of all-time in his prime, going 16-0 between 2000-2004. In that stretch, Silva beat Dan Henderson, Kazushi Sakuraba (three times) and Rampage Jackson (twice). In that stretch, only two fights even went the distance. Silva dropped his final two fights in the PRIDE organization in late 2006/early 2007 to Mirko Cro Cop and Dan Henderson. He’s still a ferocious striker and also is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though he prefers to keep fights standing. He’s clearly not the same fighter that he was in his prime, but he has changed some of his training habits and vows to return to form. Bisping rebounded from his devastating knockout loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 100 to defeat Denis Kang via TKO at UFC 105. Bisping was the light heavyweight winner of the third season of The Ultimate Fighter, but dropped to middleweight following a split-decision loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 78. In his UFC career, Bisping is 8-2 with six stoppages in those eight victories. He’s mainly a striker, though he doesn’t possess a great deal of power. He utilized his footwork to keep him out of trouble, but poor footwork and a poor gameplan got him knocked out by an overhand right hand from Henderson at UFC 100. His wrestling game is improving, but I don’t think we’ll see much of it in this contest. The only way I really see Bisping winning this fight is to use his jab and footwork to keep Silva at a distance and try to score enough points to win a decision. I just have a feeling that Silva will eventually connect with a power shot that will end Bisping’s night. There is simply nothing about Bisping’s standup game that Silva fears, and he will probably come in with reckless abandon. Silva via TKO in the 2nd.
Cain Velasquez vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: Depending on what happens in the Frank Mir/Shane Carwin fight at UFC 111, the winner of this heavyweight contest might get the first shot at Brock Lesnar when he makes his return this summer. Velasquez is one of the rising stars of the UFC’s heavyweight divsion. The American Kickboxing Academy product boasts a 7-0 record, and is 5-0 in his UFC career. He took on tough veteran heavyweight Ben Rothwell at UFC 104, and Velasquez earned a TKO victory in the 2nd round of a dominating performance. Velasquez comes from a wrestling background, and was an All-American at Arizona State. The trainers at AKA talk about his kickboxing prowess frequently, though from what I’ve seen of it, they are exaggerating somewhat. He simply doesn’t pack a lot of power in his punches, and against a resiliant guy like Nogueira, that could pose some major problems. He does have a very good top game, but as evidenced in his fight against Cheick Kongo at UFC 99, he is vulnerable to getting hit as he goes in for takedowns.
Nogueira is one of the best heavyweights of all-time. His list of victims in the heavyweight division is basically the who’s who of heavyweights. During his stint in PRIDE, Nogueira beat Mark Coleman, Heath Herring, Ricco Rodriguez, Mirko Cro Cop, Fabricio Werdum and Josh Barnett. Since entering the UFC, Nogueira has dispatched of Herring again, Tim Sylvia and Randy Couture. That’s quite an impressive list. The win over Couture at UFC 102 was important because many people (myself included) were counting him out after his subpar performance against Frank Mir at UFC 92. It was later learned that Nogueira was dealing with a variety of ailments that may have contributed to the loss. Nogueira has been though many tough fights in his career, and though he is only 33 years old, there is some fear that he’s on a steep decline in his career. However, if he fights like he did against Couture in this fight, a lot of that talk will be put on hold for awhile. In his career, Nogueira is 32-5-1 overall. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and is one of the most dangerous heavyweights of all-time with his submission game. He is also a very good boxer, and is almost miraculous when it comes to recovering from shots that would end the nights of most fighters. Much like I don’t think Wanderlei Silva will be concerned with Bisping’s power, I don’t think Silva will be too intimidated by Velasquez’s. There will probably be a moment in this fight where Nogueira is hurt from a shot from Velasquez, but I just don’t think Velasquez has the power to really put Nogueira away. If Velasquez can utilize his wrestling to keep him in top control against Nogueira, he still isn’t out of the woods. The way Nogueira strung together sweeps and submission attempts against Couture has to be in Velasquez’s mind. Velasquez is the betting favorite in this one, though I’m really not sure why. I have a tough time envisioning Velasquez winning this fight. I think a healthy Nogueira, which by all accounts he is, is dangerous from almost any position in this fight. I’m not sure if Nogueira will submit Velasquez, but I think his advantage in the striking game and his ability to sweep from the bottom will earn him the nod. Nogueira via unanimous decision.
Preliminary Card Predictions:
Brian Foster over Chris Lytle via unanimous decision
Krzysztof Soszynski over Stephan Bonnar via TKO in the 2nd
Goran Reljic over C.B. Dollaway via TKO in the 1st
James Te Huna over Igor Pokrajac via unanimous decision
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