UFC Fight Night 24 Preview and Predictions
Fresh off Jon Jones’ impressive performance to win the UFC light heavyweight championship at last weekend’s UFC 128, the organization makes its’ debut in Seattle for UFC Fight Night 24. The main event features Phil Davis, who some say has the skills to eventually challenge Jones, as he takes on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.
Leonard Garcia vs. Chan Sung Jung: The first fight was a classic, as Garcia emerged with a close split-decision victory. Now, after Garcia’s original opponent Nam Phan had to withdraw due to an injury, Jung gets a second chance. Garcia’s last six fights have gone the distance, with him winning three, losing two and earning a draw in the other. However, he’s been the subject of many discussions about improvements needed in MMA judging, as a case could be made that he should have lost the majority if not all of those decision. Garcia’s pace is frenetic, and he generally throws his gameplan out the window within the first minute of fights. He’s much more comfortable coming forward and winging punches then he is trying to fight a strategic fight. Jung’s style is pretty similar, especially when he is pressured. It made for a very entertaining first contest, though the second is going to have a hard time living up to those standards. I personally thought Jung won the first one, so I’ll go with him in the rematch as well, although it’s extremely difficult to go against Garcia and his good fortune with the judges. Jung via split decision.
Amir Sadollah vs. DaMarques Johnson: Two former fighters from The Ultimate Fighter clash here, as season 7 winner Amir Sadollah takes on the runner-up from season 9, DaMarques Johnson. After Sadollah defeated C.B. Dollaway in the finale, he dealt with injuries that forced him to pull out of two scheduled fights. When Sadollah finally got back into the Octagon, he was finished by Johny Hendricks in 29 seconds at UFC 101. The stoppage may have been early, but Hendricks definitely rocked Sadollah. Sadollah rebounded well and posted consecutive wins over Phil Baroni and Brad Blackburn before being outmuscled in a unanimous decision loss to Dong Hyun Kim at UFC 114. Most recently, Sadollah won a unanimous decision over Peter Sobottaa at UFC 122. Meanwhile, Johnson has gone 3-1 since losing to James Wilks in the finale. Johnson defeated Edgar Garcia at UFC 107, Brad Blackburn at UFC 112, and Mike Guymon at UFC Fight for the Troops 2. The only blemish on Johnson’s record since the loss to Wilks was a loss to Matthew Riddle on UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko. Johnson is taking this fight on short notice after an injury to James Wilks knocked him out of the contest. Honestly, Sadollah should have all the advantages here. He’s the better striker, and has proven to be pretty decent on the ground as well. Sadollah via TKO in the 2nd.
Dan Hardy vs. Anthony Johnson: Hardy is looking to get back into the winning side of things, after dropping back-to-back contests. Four consecutive wins to open his UFC career earned Hardy a shot at Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight title at UFC 111. After five dominating rounds from GSP, Hardy went home the loser. He made his return to the cage to take on Carlos Condit at UFC 120. That fight ended up even worse for Hardy, as Condit earned the violent knockout victory in the first round. Johnson is also looking to get back into the win column. He last fought at UFC 106, losing to Josh Koscheck via submission in the 2nd. A knee injury has sidelined him since that time, and Johnson made news by suggesting he could move up to the middleweight division after he returned. However, he has recently stated he would remain in the welterweight division. Johnson is a huge welterweight, and he stated that he was up to 230 lbs before beginning training camp for this fight. He’s missed weight twice in his UFC career, and it’s hard to believe that UFC president Dana White would allow him to remain a welterweight if he missed a third time. Even the times that Johnson has made weight, the extreme cut seems to impact his performance. He was visably gassed in the 2nd round against Koshcheck, allowing him to get caught with a rear naked choke. It’s doubtful that this fight will hit the ground very often. Both guys would rather strike, and both have enormous faith in their power. Johnson clearly has more power, but Hardy has better movement and speed. Eventually, I think Johnson catches Hardy before gassing out. Johnson via TKO in the 2nd.
Phil Davis vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Davis is looked at as one of the most athletic fighters at light heavyweight, and someone who can match new light heavyweight champion Jon Jones’ athleticism. The four-time division I All-American at Penn State is one of the better wrestlers in all of MMA, but what’s made his rise so remarkable is the progression of his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills under Lloyd Irvin. He’s now one of the better grapplers in the division to go along with having the best wrestling pedigree. Davis is 8-0 in his young MMA career, and has gone 4-0 to begin his UFC career with wins over Brian Stann, Alexander Gustafsson, Rodney Wallace and Tim Boetsch. His standup is clearly improving, but not at the same rate that his grappling is. The difference between him and Jones at the moment is in that striking game, where Jones is far ahead. However, in time, Davis might be able to contend with Jones on their feet, but he is arguably already better than him on the ground. Nogueira is still in the upper echelon of the division. His last time out, Nogueira lost to Ryan Bader in a close decision at UFC 119. In that fight, Nogueira did pretty well in the standup, but was susceptible to Bader’s wrestling. In his career, Nogueira has taken on and beaten some of the best in the world. He holds wins over Sakuraba, Alistair Overeem (twice) and Dan Henderson. Much like his twin brother, Nogueira is known for his crisp boxing and black belt skills in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Davis will likely try to use his wrestling much like Bader did in his victory over Nogueira. If Nogueira can control the striking game, he’ll have a better chance to keep Davis outside of striking distance for the takedowns. If Davis can get inside, he’ll be able to take Nogueira down and will attempt to control him there. Nogueira is known for fantastic sweeps from the bottom, but I think we’ll come out of this fight talking about how Davis was able to control the grappling game of Nogueira. Davis via unanimous decision.
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UFC 128: Shogun vs. Jones Preview and Predictions
It isn’t very often that a main event loses one of its’ participants and the replacement actually makes the fight more intriguing. UFC 128 is one such example however. Originally slated to feature a light heavyweight title fight between the champion “Shogun” Rua against Rashad Evans, UFC 128’s main event turned into Rua vs. Jon Jones after Evans went down with a knee injury during training. Now, one of the sport’s rising stars will get a chance to wrest the title away from one of it’s legends.
Brendan Schaub vs. Mirko Cro Cop: Schaub is a rising heavyweight prospect who is 3-1 in the UFC with his only loss coming to Roy Nelson in the finals of The Ultimate Fighter 10. The former collegiate and professional football player transitioned into MMA after his career ended, and showcases good striking along with athleticism. He’s largely untested on the ground, though training with Greg Jackson as well as at the Grudge training center should help him improve there, and it’s not like Cro Cop will want to bring this fight down anyway. Cro Cop looked absolutely awful in his last contest, a knockout loss to Frank Mir at UFC 119, although in fairness to Mirko, Mir didn’t do much to help the quality of the fight. A 4-4 run in the UFC hasn’t inspired confidence that he can return to his previous form when he was one of the most feared strikers in all of MMA. It appears that age, and perhaps a lack of evolution and interest in his training has caught up to him. Schaub should have the advantage here. He’s quicker and his striking technique is pretty good. Cro Cop is still dangerous, but I think Schaub will be prepared for whatever he throws at him. May very well be the last time we see Mirko in the UFC, and possibly in MMA. Schaub via TKO in the 2nd.
Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller: The “other” Miller brother was a late replacement for Yoshihiro Akiyama, who dropped out of the fight due to the devastating earthquake in his native Japan. He inherits an extremely tough matchup in Marquardt. Miller began his UFC career with three straight wins over Matt Horwich, Rob Kimmons and Jake Rosholt, but then dropped three consecutive fights to Chael Sonnen, Michael Bisping and Demian Maia, though all three fights went the distance. He’s recovered to win his past two fights, over John Salter at UFC 118, and Joe Doerksen at UFC 124. Much like his younger brother Jim, Dan is a pretty good all-around fighter. He comes from a wrestling background and is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. His striking remains his weakness and can be exploited by Marquardt here. Marquardt was one win away from a 2nd title shot against Anderson Silva twice in the past year, only to lose to Chael Sonnen at UFC 109, and then to Yushin Okami at UFC 122. He sandwiched a TKO victory over Rousimar Palhares in between those two fights. Marquardt is also a very good all-around fighter. He was outwrestled by Sonnen and Okami, but shouldn’t have that same issue against Miller in this fight. He is by far the better of the two fighters standing, so look for him exploit that early and often. If Miller can’t dump Marquardt on his back, he’s going to be in all sorts of trouble. Look for Marquardt to try and make a statement early. It won’t be easy to put the very tough Miller away, but Marquardt will do it eventually. Marquardt via TKO in the 2nd.
Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus: Fans of MMA who only watch the UFC may not know the name of Kamal Shalorus, but he is a very talented fighter making his debut in the company after compiling a 3-0-1 record in the WEC. The Iranian born Shalorus has a very good wrestling background, though he often prefers to just stand and throw punches. He hits hard, but this style has caused him to have more difficulty in fights than he probably would have if he would just use his wrestling more. In his WEC career, Shalorus defeated Will Kerr, Dave Jansen and Bart Palaszewski, and earned a draw against Jamie Varner at WEC 49. Miller is an impressive 8-1 in his UFC career with his only loss coming to Gray Maynard at UFC 96. He’s won his past six fights and finds himself as a fringe contender to the lightweight title. To get closer to that shot, he’ll have to defeat Shalorus here, and probably rather convincingly. Miller is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu like his older brother, and also has a wrestling background, though Shalorus is the more decorated wrestler. Miller is a much better striker than his older brother, and is a very technically sound striker. He’ll probably try to pick apart Shalorus from the outside as he avoids Shalorus’ powerful but wild punches. Since Shalorus doesn’t use his wrestling very often offensively, that aspect of the fight will probably be a wash, leaving this fight to be mainly a kickboxing fight. I expect Miller to get the better of that en route to victory. Miller via unanimous decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Eddie Wineland: Faber’s first fight in the UFC may come with a bantamweight title shot if he is victorious. Once considered one of the best pound-for-pound fighters in the world, Faber lost his featherweight title to Mike Brown, then lost the rematch after defeating Jens Pulver in between. He rebounded to beat Raphael Assuncao at WEC 46, but then was dominated in a title fight loss to Jose Aldo. Faber dropped down to the bantamweight division, and looked pretty good in submitting Takeya Mizugaki in the first round at WEC 52. Wineland is also a former WEC champion, winning the belt at WEC 20 by defeating Antonio Banuelos. Wineland dropped the belt to Chase Beebe in his next WEC fight, and didn’t return until WEC 40 where he lost to Rani Yahya via 1st round submission. Since that loss, Wineland has rattled off four straight wins, and now finds himself in line for a possible title shot as well. Faber’s speed gave opponents problems when he was a featherweight, but it’s his size that can give him an advantage at bantamweight. Wineland probably has an advantage in the striking department, but Faber’s always made up for his limitations with his unique style. Faber should have all the advantages on the ground, though Wineland has improved there as well. This won’t be an easy fight for Faber. Wineland is a tough opponent, but in the end, Faber’s wrestling and grappling should win him this fight. Faber via unanimous decision.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Jon Jones: Shogun is one of the greatest light heavyweights of all-time, and he is still in his prime at only 29 years old. He has wins over “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Ricardo Arona, and Alistair Overeem (twice) on his resume. He entered the UFC at UFC 76, but clearly wasn’t himself as he struggled mightily in a submission loss to Forrest Griffin. After the fight, it was revealed that Shogun had a knee injury, and subsequent knee surgery put him out of action until UFC 93. After another lackluster performance in a win against Mark Coleman, many suggested that Rua was done and that the injuries had derailed his career. Signs of the old Shogun came as he knocked out Chuck Liddell at UFC 97 which earned him a title shot against Lyoto Machida at UFC 104. Heading into that fight, manywere proclaiming that it was the “Machida Era” and that Machida would remain champion for a long while. Rua and Machida fought an extremely close fight,with Machida getting the controversial unanimous decision. After the outcry from the fans, the UFC booked the rematch between the two at UFC 113, with Shogun ending the “Machida Era” with a first round knockout victory.
Jones has only been competing in MMA since 2008. After compiling a 6-0 record in regional promotions, Jones got the call to face Andre Gusmao at UFC 87. Jones dominated Gusmao to earn the unanimous decision. Jones next fought Stephan Bonnar at UFC 94, using his unorthodox striking and wrestling dominance to defeat Bonnar via unanimous decision as well. Since the win over Bonnar, Jones defeated Jake O’Brien at UFC 100, then lost to Matt Hamill via disqualification at The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale due to illegal elbow strikes. The “loss” didnt’ slow down Jones’ hype, as he was absolutely dominating Hamill when he was DQ’d. Jones has won his last three fights, finishing Brandon Vera, Vladimir Mayushenko and Ryan Bader inside of two rounds.
This is an extremely interesting matchup. One big question is the layoff for both fighters. Jones has a very quick turnaround from his last fight against Bader at UFC 126, with less than 50 days in between fights. Meanwhile, Shogun underwent knee surgery after the 2nd Machida fight, and he hasn’t fought in 10 months. How the different layoffs will affect each fighter could be a factor. Though Rua is noted as a dangerous striker, many have fallen in love with Jones’ exceptional reach (84 inches) and his unorthodox striking. Rua is much more traditional, and has more power in his shots than Jones does at this point in his career. Jones’ big advantage in this contest is his wrestling. He has a good wrestling background, but has really transitioned well into MMA wrestling. His Greco-Roman background serves him well in the Octagon. He’ll definitely have the wrestling advantage in this one, though Rua’s Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game is slightly underrated due to his striking prowess. It’s a question of how long Jones believes he can stand with Rua before he decides to bring this fight to the ground. Rua’s cardio has been questioned before, but Jones has never been in a five-round fight, and also hasn’t had this sort of pressure in a fight either. How Jones reacts to the adrenaline dump that is sure to happen could determine the outcome of this contest. This is an extremely hard fight to pick. Jones is so talented that it is hard to imagine him losing, but Shogun has been here before, and succeeded at the highest level. Throwing spinning elbows and kicks against Stephan Bonnar is one thing, but trying those same moves on Rua is quite another. I’m going withRua in this one. I think he’ll catch Jones at some point, and will take the opportunity to finish the fight. Jones will be back, maybe sooner rather than later, but I think Saturday is Rua’s night. Shogun Rua via TKO in the 3rd.
Popularity: 4% [?]
Zuffa Buys Strikeforce
Generally, Saturday is not a huge news day in the MMA community. Yesterday was definitely the exception, as we learned that Zuffa LLC, the parent company of the UFC, purchased the number two MMA promotion, Strikeforce.
UFC president Dana White announced the news in a video interview with MMAfighting.com’s Ariel Helwani. Although it appears many of the details need to be ironed out, White confirmed that the two organizations would be operated separately, at least for the time being. White said that Strikeforce CEO Scott Coker would continue to run Strikeforce, and that there would be no cross-promotional fights initially, although he clearly left the door open to that happening in the future.
Although there are still many questions left to be answered, this seems to be a win-win for MMA fans. They have the number two promotion in the world now being run by the most successful promotion in MMA, and the possibility of mega-fights between Alistair Overeem and Cain Velasquez, or Gilbert Melendez and Frankie Edgar is closer than ever.
However, the affect on fighters could be a different story. Several of the fighters on the Strikeforce roster have a poor relationship with Dana White and the UFC, including welterweight contender Paul Daley, heavyweight GP participant Josh Barnett, and the former number one heavyweight in the world, Fedor Emelianenko. How these fighters and others fit into the long-term Zuffa plan remains to be seen.
Most in the MMA community eventually expect the UFC to shut down Strikeforce once the TV deal with Showtime expires. Then, they could take the fighters that have fulfilled their contracts with Strikeforce and sign them to deals with Zuffa Inc., and dump some of the fighters they don’t want. The expanded roster and staff would allow the UFC to dramatically increase the number of shows they hold on a yearly basis, perhaps holding one show per week as White had mentioned previously.
It should be noted that when the UFC initally purchased PRIDE in 2007, White insisted that the two promotions would be run separately, but that plan was quickly nixed. The WEC was run separately after it was purchased by the UFC in 2006, but was dissolved into the UFC earlier this year.
More details should emerge from a press conference scheduled for Monday, and hopefully we’ll get further answers on what the future holds for both organizations. However, one thing is clear. With the purchase of Strikeforce, Zuffa Inc. and Dana White now control the majortiy of the North American MMA landscape.
Popularity: 4% [?]
UFC on Versus 3 Preview and Predictions
There really aren’t many things better than free MMA on TV, especially when the free event has PPV quality fights. Such is the case with Thursday’s UFC on Versus event, headlined by Diego Sanchez vs. Martin Kampmann.
Brian Bowles vs. Damacio Page: This will be the second matchup between these two, with Bowles winning the first via 1st round submission back in 2008. Bowles hasn’t fought since losing the bantamweight title to Dominick Cruz almost one year ago. He suffered a broken hand in that contest, and also suffered a broken foot while training for a fight at WEC 52. The loss to Cruz was Bowles’ first professional loss, and dropped his record to 8-1. A win here puts him back into title contention quickly. Page last fought at WEC 52, and was submitted in the third round by Demetrious Johnson. Overall, Page is 15-5 in his MMA career. This should be a fight where Bowles can earn himself a victory and get back into contention. He’s got more power, and is more of a threat on the ground as well. Hopefully he’ll come into this fight at 100%, and leave that way too. Bowles via TKO in the 3rd.
Alessio Sakara vs. Chris Weidman: Weidman will be making his UFC debut in this one, and is a late injury replacement for Rafael Natal. Weidman is 4-0 in his young career, but comes from a very good collegiate wrestling background. He was a two-time All-American at Hofstra, and has rounded out his ground game considerably since he began training with Matt Serra. Sakara will have a huge experience edge, as he comes into this contest with a 15-7 record overall. Sakara has won his past three UFC contests, beating Joe Vedepo, Thales Leites and James Irvin. He’s mainly known for his striking, but also has been criticized for his less than stellar chin. I don’t think Sakara can slow down Weidman’s wrestling enough to win this fight. I think Sakara’s striking is being a bit overplayed, especially since I don’t think he can stop Weidman’s shot. Even in a standup battle, Weidman has a chance to win, but it won’t come down to that. Weidman is a top prospect in the middleweight division, and even though he is very inexperienced, I think his talent will overcome that. Weidman via unanimous decision.
Mark Munoz vs. C.B. Dollaway: Two outstanding collegiate wrestlers will clash in this matchup. Munoz was the NCAA champion in his senior year at Oklahoma State, while Dollaway was an All-American wrestler at Arizona State. Munoz recovered from a brutal knockout loss at the hands (and feet) of Matt Hamill at UFC 96 to win his next three fights over Nick Catone, Ryan Jensen and Kendall Grove. His rise up the ladder was slowed somewhat by a split-decision loss to Yushin Okami at UFC Live: Jones vs. Matysushenko, but he rebounded with a win over Aaron Simpson at UFC 123. Dollaway entered the UFC by way of The Ultimate Fighter. Dollaway lost to Amir Sadollah in the final of the seventh season, but won his next two UFC fights. Since a first-round loss to Tom Lawlor at UFC 100, Dollaway has run off three straight wins over Jay Silva, Goran Reljic and Joe Doerksen. Munoz was the better collegiate wrestler, but a case could be made that Dollaway has transitioned his game better to MMA. Dollaway is the bigger submission threat, but Munoz is the better top control guy. While neither guy is all that great on their feet, Munoz has more power. This has the potential to be a fun fight to watch. When all is said and done, I think Munoz is closer to being a contender than Dollaway is. Dollaway seems to find ways to wilt under pressure, and I think he’ll do it here too. Munoz via TKO in the 2nd.
Diego Sanchez vs. Martin Kampmann: A good matchup in the fringe contender area of the welterweight division, Diego Sanchez will look to continue the momentum he gained by defeating Paulo Thiago at UFC 121, while Kampmann will look to build on a pretty good performance in a loss to Jake Shields on the same card. Sanchez has bounced between the welterweight and lightweight divisions the past few years, but seems to be committed to making another run at the welterweight title for now. The season one winner of The Ultimate Fighter, Sanchez was close to a title shot at welterweight before dropping consecutive fights to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch in 2007. He won his next two contests before deciding to drop to lightweight. Consecutive wins over Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida earned him a title shot against B.J. Penn, but Sanchez was dominated before the fight was stopped in the fifth round due to a cut. He returned to welterweight only to drop a unanimous decision to John Hathaway at UFC 114. Sanchez claims that he now has his life in order again, and has returned to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico. Kampmann was due a title shot if he could beat Mike Swick at UFC 103, but when Swick had to drop out of the fight with an injury, Paul Daley stepped in and proceeded to get a first round TKO victory over Kampmann. After rebounding with victories over Jacob Volkmann and Paulo Thiago, Kampmann welcomed Jake Shields to the UFC at 121. Though he dropped a close split-decision, Kampmann performed well.
This is a very good matchup. Sanchez sets a frantic pace to his fights, something that may turn the fight in his favor due to Kampmann’s reputation of having a less-than-stellar gas tank. He’ll also have the wrestling advantage in this fight, though Kampmann’s takedown defense and overall ground game are underrated. Kampmann will have the advantage while the fight is standing, but he lacks the knockout power that would make Sanchez leery of keeping the fight there. The fight will likely come down to how many of Sanchez’s takedown attempts Kampmann can stop, especially in the early rounds where Sanchez can get top control and wear him down. I think Kampmann can stop just enough takedowns to keep the fight standing long enough to secure a decision victory. Kampmann via unanimous decision.
Popularity: 2% [?]
UFC 127 Preview and Predictions
Sandwiched between an impressive looking UFC 126 card as well as the must-see events of UFC 128 and UFC 129, UFC 127 hasn’t gotten much fanfare. Though the card lacks sizzle, the main event is a relevant fight in the UFC’s welterweight division, and there are some interesting matchups on the undercard as well.
Kyle Noke vs. Chris Camozzi: The 30-year old Noke is 2-0 in his young UFC career. After a stint on the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter, Noke beat one of his teammates, Josh Bryant, via 2nd round TKO on the season’s finale. He followed that up with a submission victory over Rob Kimmons at UFC 122. The Australian native is 18-4 in his MMA career. Camozzi is also a veteran of the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Due to an injury suffered in his preliminary fight, Camozzi never got to compete during the show. He fought at the season finale, defeating James Hammortree via unanimous decision. He later fought at UFC 121, defeating Dong Yi Yang via split decision to move to 2-0 in the promotion. Noke has struggled against strong wrestlers before, but Camozzi doesn’t really fit that profile. His wrestling is adequate, but nothing spectacular. Noke is stronger standing, and that’s where the majority of this fight will take place. Noke via unanimous decision.
Brian Ebersole vs. Chris Lytle: Ebersole is a late replacement for the injured Carlos Condit. He’ll be making his UFC debut, but is a veteran of 62 professional fights. He is 46-14 in his career, and has beaten fighters such as Matt Horwich, Carlos Newton and Nick Thompson. He comes from a collegiate wrestling background, but conditioning may be a factor as he is taking this fight on only two weeks notice. Lytle is one of the most entertaining fighters in the welterweight division. He mixes in solid technical striking with excellent Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and an extremely durable chin. Lytle has had a resurgence of late, winning his last four fights over Kevin Burns, Brian Foster, Matt Brown and most recently, Matt Serra at UFC 119. The streak has evened Lytle’s UFC record at 9-9. Lytle should cruise in this fight. Ebersole’s wrestling is good, but not good enough to control Lytle for three rounds. Lytle is a threat to end the fight standing and on the ground, though I’m going with the former. Lytle via TKO in the 2nd.
George Sotiropoulos vs. Dennis Siver: Sotiropoulos will try to get one step closer to a title shot in the lightweight division as he takes on the dangerous Siver. Sotiropoulos is 7-0 in his UFC career, most recently beating Joe Lauzon at UFC 123. The Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt 14-2 in his career, with 8 victories coming via submission. His guard passing is a thing of beauty, and his ground game is technically sound. His striking has continued to improve as his career has progressed, and he’s now a threat standing up. Standing is where Siver wants the majority of this fight to take place. The talented German striker is 6-4 in his UFC career, and has won his past two fights. Most recently, Siver submitted Andre Winner at UFC 122. His striking is the most dangerous part of his game. He’ll have the advantage over Sotiropoulos in that department, but Sotiropoulos will have a reach advantage. Once this fight hits the ground, I think Sotiropoulos will make quick work of Siver. Sotiropoulos via submission in the 1st.
Michael Bisping vs. Jorge Rivera: Lots of bad blood leading up to this matchup. Much like the Siver/Sotiropoulos matchup seems a bit odd to me, this one does as well. Bisping isn’t at a championship level, but he’s certainly at least a notch above Rivera. Rivera has won his past three contests, but they weren’t exactly against world-beaters. Rivera won a split-decision over Nissan Osterneck at UFC Fight Night 18, and had back-to-back TKO wins over Rob Kimmons and Nate Quarry. The last time Rivera fought a fighter that was similar to Bisping’s level, he was submitted in under three minutes by Martin Kampmann. Rivera is 19-7 in his career, and is mostly known for his striking. His hands are powerful but not technically sound. Bisping is 20-3 in his MMA career, and has won his past two contests, defeating Dan Miller at UFC 114 and Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 120. Like Rivera, Bisping is known for his striking, but unlike Rivera, Bisping’s striking is crisp and footwork is solid. Many look at his KO loss to Dan Henderson at UFC 100 as a sign that his footwork is bad, but that was poor execution of a gameplan more than it was poor footwork. He hasn’t shown knockout power since entering the UFC, but makes up for it with the number of punches he connects with. He’s also greatly improved his ground game in recent years, something he can probably take advantage of in this fight. Bisping doesn’t finish many guys, but to me, this looks like a prime opportunity. Bisping should batter Rivera from the outside before taking this to the ground and finishing it there. Bisping via TKO in the 2nd.
B.J. Penn vs. Jon Fitch: The main event features a fight that will determine the next contender for the welterweight title according to UFC president Dana White. However, with the possibility of current champion Georges St. Pierre moving up to middleweight to face Anderson Silva if he can get past Jake Shields at UFC 129, this fight may take on even more significance. Both fighters have had shots at St. Pierre in recent years, with Penn falling short against the champion at UFC 94 and Fitch doing the same at UFC 87. After consecutive losses to Frankie Edgar in the lightweight division, many considered Penn’s career to be coming to a close. However, after a move up to welterweight and a quick KO victory over Matt Hughes at UFC 123, Penn finds himself in title contention again. With Penn, it’s never a question of talent. However, sometimes his training and heart have been questioned. Penn looked much more motivated in his last fight against Hughes, and will need to come in to this fight with the same mindset if he wants to get by Jon Fitch. Fitch has rebounded from the loss to GSP by reeling off five consecutive unanimous decision wins. He doesn’t earn many style points, but Fitch just wins. He’s 23-3 in his MMA career, and holds an extremely impressive 13-1 record in the UFC. Fitch wrestled collegiately at Purdue, and while his striking is solid and underrated, generally wins by takedowns and control. Much has been discussed in recent days about Fitch’s weight. Usually a fighter who walks around near 200 pounds and cuts about 30 pounds for his fights, Fitch claimed to only cut from the 180s for this fight after making some diet changes. He also looked noticably smaller at today’s weigh ins. However, he’ll still maintain a weight and strength advantage over the smaller Penn. Penn should not be overlooked in this contest. His striking and power are still forces to be reckoned with, and his takedown defense has always been solid. In a five-round fight, Fitch would be the more obvious pick due to Penn’s conditioning problems, but the same won’t hold true in this three-round fight. However, I think he’ll be able to do enough to secure the decision victory. Fitch via unanimous decision.
Popularity: 1% [?]
UFC Does Big Business in February
The month of February has proven to be a box office bonanza for the UFC. February 5th’s UFC 126 drew a gate of $3,605,725 at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, according to the Nevada State Athletic Commission. This was up sharply from the gate for UFC 125, which was $2.17 million.
Also last week, the UFC announced that April’s UFC 129 was a complete sell-out. The event, which will take place at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, will be the first for the UFC in the city. Originally set for a configuration of 42,000 seats, the UFC added 13,000 additional seats when the first allotment sold out so quickly. Preliminary estimates peg the gate figure at nearly $11 million, which will blow away the previous gate record for a UFC event of $5.4 million from UFC 66. UFC 129 features one of Canada’s most popular athletes, Georges St. Pierre, in the main event as he defends his welterweight title against Jake Shields.
UFC President Dana White estimates that the event could bring $40 million in revenue for the city of Toronto. These figures will be followed closely by both sides of the ongoing battle to get MMA sanctioned in New York. While White has often maintained that an event in New York City would bring huge revenues to the city, opponents of the fight believe this is not the case. If UFC 129 does indeed draw the revenue that White believes it will, it will give solid financial evidence that sanctioning MMA in New York could indeed bring a financial windfall to the city and the state.
Finally, White stated today that over 17,000 tickets have been sold for UFC 127, set to take place in Sydney, Australia on February 26th. He also said that they’ve added seats in the venue since UFC 110, the last time they held an event there. UFC 110 drew an estimated $2.5 million gate.
It’s clear that February has been a great month for UFC business, and if the UFC 126 Pay-Per-View numbers come in strong as expected, it could turn out even better.
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UFC 126 Preview and Predictions
Simply put, UFC 126 features one of the most stacked fight cards that the organization has produced in the past year. Featuring an exciting main event matchup for the middleweight title between Anderson Silva and Vitor Belfort, as well a co-main event between Forrest Griffin and Rich Franklin, not to mention a light heavyweight fight between two of the UFC’s best prospects in Jon Jones and Ryan Bader, UFC 126 not only features intriguing matchups, but also relevant fights.
Miguel Torres vs. Antonio Banuelos: Torres rebounded from back-to-back defeats to submit Charlie Valencia at WEC 51. He changed his standup game after training with Firas Zahabi prior to the fight, and also appeared to be much more patient in his striking. The win improved Torres’ MMA record to 38-3, and also put him back in the title picture in the bantamweight division that he ruled for so long. Banuelos defeated Chad George via unanimous decision at WEC 51, winning for the fourth time in his last five fights. He possesses solid wrestling as well as good striking in close quarters. Torres will have a sizable reach advantage in this fight, something that could actually work towards Banuelos’ favor if he can get inside. In the end, I think Torres’ improved focus and striking comes into play again as he outpoints Banuelos to a decision victory. Torres via unanimous decision.
Jake Ellenberger vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha: Ellenberger is a very talented and underrated fighter who brings a UFC record of 2-1 into this fight with Rocha. Last time out at UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko, Ellenberger battered John Howard from the opening bell, and eventually won via doctor’s stoppage in the 3rd round. Ellenberger’s one UFC loss was to Carlos Condit in his UFC debut, but many observers felt that he won that fight as well. Rocha won his UFC debut at UFC 122, as he submitted Kris McCray via kneebar in the first round. The Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt improved his overall record to 9-0 with the victory. Ellenberger’s game is generally built around his good wrestling skills, but he also features a solid striking game that is mostly based upon his power. Rocha will likely need to rely on his grappling skills to get the victory, but if Ellenberger is getting the better of the action on the feet, he may not even want to risk taking this fight to the ground. He could very well grind out a top control decision victory over Rocha, but I expect him to win this fight standing instead. Ellenberger via TKO in the 2nd.
Ryan Bader vs. Jon Jones: This is a very exciting matchup between two guys would could very well be future champions. Bader is 12-0 in his MMA career, and is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 119. Bader displayed solid wrestling and good ground n’ pound in that fight, though his striking game still has a ways to go. Bader prefers to utilize his collegiate wrestling background, but will be going up against another collegiate wrestler in this one, although Jones doesn’t have the Division I pedigree that Bader does. Jones is 11-1 in his career, and the one loss was via DQ after he delivered illegal elbows in a fight against Matt Hamill at The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale. Along with his wrestling background, Jones’ has developed into an unorthodox if not a dynamic striker. His huge reach can give anyone problems, and it often comes into play when he’s in top control raining down punches as well. This is a tough fight to call and could be much closer than many people are predicting. Bader is a very good fighter and I could see him grinding out a decision win. However, Jones is just too dynamic and freakish to pick against. Jones via TKO in the 2nd.
Rich Franklin vs. Forrest Griffin: Another fight with relevance in the light heavyweight division as two former champions (Franklin as a middleweight) try to climb back up the ladder. Franklin is coming off a dramatic KO victory over Chuck Liddell at UFC 115. Franklin withstood Liddell’s early onslaught and a broken arm to finish Liddell in the closing seconds of the opening round. The win was Franklin’s third in his last five contests, in which four of his opponents were former champions. Overall, Franklin is an impressive 28-5 in his career, with his only losses coming to Anderson Silva (twice), Lyoto Machida, Dan Henderson and Vitor Belfort. Franklin is a solid striker with good technique. He is as southpaw, but also packs power in his right hand as Liddell found out. Griffin is coming off a year and a half layoff after shoulder surgery following his split decision victory over Tito Ortiz at UFC 106. After beating Quinton “Rampage” Jackson to win the light heavyweight title at UFC 86, Griffin dropped back-to-back contests to Rashad Evans and then in embarrassing fashion to Anderson Silva. Overall, Griffin is 17-6 in his career and 8-4 in the UFC. Griffin is a pretty solid all-around fighter. He mainly relies on his striking as his wrestling is not dynamic. He doesn’t really have true knockout power, but instead uses combinations and flurries of punches instead of looking for one knockout shot. This is a very interesting matchup, as both fighters have very similar skill sets. Franklin definitely has the edge in the power department and also is the more technical striker. Neither really has a wrestling background. Griffin will come into the fight with a distinct size advantage, but Franklin matches up pretty well in the strength department with just about anyone in the division. Griffin is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Robert Drysdale, but Franklin isn’t bad on the ground either as he holds a brown belt from Jorge Gurgel. In the end, I think ring rust may come into play with Forrest a bit early on, and Franklin will be able to dictate the pace of the fight. If he can maintain his distance, I think Franklin has the opportunity to pick Griffin apart from the outside, and even has a decent chance to finish. I’ll give Griffin the benefit of the doubt and say that he makes it to the finish, but he’ll be on the losing side of the decision. Franklin via unanimous decision.
Vitor Belfort vs. Anderson Silva: After coming just a few minutes from losing his title at UFC 117, Silva will look to extend his reign as champion as he takes on Vitor Belfort. Silva was struggling mightily in his title fight against Chael Sonnen at UFC 117 before sinking in a triangle choke in the closing minutes of the fifth round to retain his title. It should be noted that Sonnen did test positive for elevated levels of testosterone after the fight, but it’s hard to say how much of an effect that had on the fight itself. Silva’s striking was really never able to get on track as Sonnen took him down repeatedly and utilized good ground n’ pound and top control. That isn’t likely to happen in this fight, as Belfort is a completely different kind of fighter. The win over Sonnen improved Silva’s MMA record to 27-4, and his UFC record to an incredible 12-0. His striking is among the best in the world and his footwork and head movement keep him out of danger on his feet. He’s also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and is a threat off his back as well. Belfort returned to the UFC with bang by knocking out Rich Franklin at UFC 103. Belfort hasn’t fought since and has been out of action for nearly 17 months. How the ring rust will affect him is anyone’s guess. Also, this was Belfort’s first weight cut to 185 since his fight with Matt Lindland at Affliction: Day of Reckoning (he fought Franklin at a catch weight of 195). His weight cut was monitored with Mike Dolce, who has done wonders for guys like Thiago Alves, so Belfort’s weight cut may have been easier than anticipated. Belfort has always been known for his quick hands, but he also holds a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt from Carlson Gracie. I’ve been going back and forth on this pick for awhile. Part of me wants to pick Belfort, as I think age is starting to catch up with Silva somewhat. However, besides his win over Franklin, Belfort hasn’t really defeated a top level fighter since Randy Couture at UFC 46. I also think the long layoff may come into play as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a flash knockout from Belfort, but in the end, I just can’t pick against Silva here. Silva via TKO in the 3rd.
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