UFC 132: Cruz vs. Faber II Preview and Predictions
Fresh off an action-packed month of June, the UFC begins July with another solid card. UFC 132’s main event features a bantamweight title fight between the champion, Dominick Cruz, and former featherweight title holder Urijah Faber. The undercard features a blend of solid matchups and potential slugfests.
Matt Wiman vs. Dennis Siver: An exciting lightweight fight will lead off the PPV main card. Wiman has won his past three fights, including a dominant performance in a unanimous decision win over Cole Miller in his last fight at UFC Fight for the Troops 2. Wimain is a solid 7-3 in the UFC. Siver is coming off an upset victory over George Sotiropoulos at UFC 127. The win was Siver’s third straight in the Octagon and upped his UFC record to 7-4. In the Sotiropoulos fight, Siver was able to defend nearly all of Sotiropoulos’ takedown attempts, and was able to win the striking exchanges. Wiman will likely look to get this fight to the ground early and often, but he’ll need to do a better job of that than Sotiropoulos did to have a chance. I think Wiman will get this fight down to the ground a few times, but will it be enough to win the fight? I think Siver outperformed his abilities in the fight against Sotiropoulos, and I expect a slight regression in this fight. I can see Siver outpointing Wiman to a decision victory, but I’ll stick with my gut and go with Wiman. Wiman via decision.
Carlos Condit vs. Dong Hyun Kim: Pretty good clash of styles in this one, as the striker Condit takes on the Judoka Kim. Condit last fought at UFC 120 in October, knocking out Dan Hardy in impressive fashion. The win upped his UFC record to 3-1, with the lone loss coming against Martin Kampmann in his promotional debut. Meanwhile, Kim is 5-0-1 in his UFC career, and is still undefeated in his MMA career at 14-0-1. Kim last fought at UFC 125, earning a unanimous decision victory over Nate Diaz. Kim’s style isn’t flashy, as he relies on position, clinching and takedowns while featuring a very limited striking game. Condit is nearly the opposite, making up for a subpar wrestling game with solid striking and submissions. I don’t think this is a very good matchup for Condit. Most scenarios point to Kim grinding out a decision victory. Condit will have to land something significant early while the fight is standing, or he could be in for a long night. I think Kim remains undefeated in a somewhat boring but workman-like decision victory. Kim via unanimous decision.
Tito Ortiz vs. Ryan Bader: In what could be Ortiz’s last MMA (or at least UFC) contest, he’ll take on the tough Ryan Bader. Ortiz hasn’t won a fight in…well…it’s been a long time. 2006 to be exact. It’s not that Ortiz has been losing to bums though. His past 5 fights (four losses and a draw) were against Chuck Liddell, Rashad Evans, Lyoto Machida, Forrest Griffin and Matt Hamill. The Hamill loss was probably the worst loss of the group, as Hamill controlled the majority of the bout en route to a unanimous decision. At 36, with a limited skillset, and coming off major injuries, it doesn’t appear that Ortiz has much left in the tank. After winning the eighth season of The Ultimate Fighter, Bader won his next four fights over progressively tougher competition, highlighted by a unanimous decision win over Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC 119. However, Bader’s rise to the top was slowed by the current light heavyweight champion Jon Jones, who defeated Bader via 2nd round submission at UFC 126. The win over Bader propelled Jones to a title shot against Shogun Rua, who he proceeded to defeat. Bader hasn’t fought since the loss. This is probably a good comeback fight for Bader. He’s facing an opponent who won’t threathen him in the striking game, and likely can’t hang with his wrestling talents either. Bader is a more evolved version of what Ortiz was in his prime. That’s not to dimish what Ortiz has accomplished in his career. He was a dominant champion, but that time has passed, as has his window to compete against the top fighters in the world. I’m hoping that Ortiz comes out and shocks me, but I just don’t see it happening. Bader via TKO in the 2nd.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Chris Leben: On to the co-main event of the evening, which has also been perhaps more talked about than the main event by many people, due to the fireworks that this fight could bring. Silva hasn’t fought since UFC 110 in February of 2010. In that fight, Silva won a close decision over Michael Bisping. Since then, Silva had to pull out of fights due to broken ribs as well as knee surgery. At 34, with a career full of slugfests and injuries, Silva looks to be on the severe downside of his career. However, the victory over Bisping showed that he can at least still compete with some of the fringe contenders in the middleweight division. Since returning to the UFC in 2007, Silva is just 2-3, with losses to Chuck Liddell, Quinton Jackson and Rich Franklin. Leben is coming off a disappointing performance against Brian Stann at UFC 125 in a first-round knockout loss. Leben had looked like he was finally building some momentum in his career after three straight victories including a dramatic submission victory over Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 116. Leben looked slower in the fight against Stann, with many speculating that he had taken too many punches in his career while Leben blaming it on an illness caused by eating too much sugar after the weigh ins. It’ll be interesting to see how he looks in this contest. This fight should be contested nearly entirely standing, as Silva doesn’t even look for takedowns and neither does Leben for the most part. I’d normally go with Silva in a slugfest, but the recovery from the knee surgery and the long layoff worries me. I think Leben will actually come into this contest as the quicker fighter, as Silva may still be rusty. I’ll take Leben via TKO in the 2nd.
Dominick Cruz vs. Urijah Faber: These two have fought once before, with the then-featherweight champion Urijah Faber earning the submission win over Cruz at WEC 26. That fight took place over four years ago, so it’s very hard to take anything out of that fight to judge what may happen in this one. Since that fight, Faber defended his title another three times before losing to Mike Brown twice and then losing to Jose Aldo at WEC 48. After the loss to Aldo, Faber dropped to Bantamweight, where he’s defeated Takeya Mizugaki and Eddie Wineland. Cruz hasn’t lost since the first fight, as he dropped to Bantamweight, won his first four fights in that weight class, won the title over Brian Bowles, and defended it twice. Most recently, Cruz defeated Scott Jorgensen via unanimous decision at WEC 53. This will be his first title defense since the UFC absorbed the WEC. Very intriguing matchup here. Cruz is solid in nearly all areas. He mainly utilizes his footwork and speed to win striking exchanges. He rarely gets hit due to those same characteristics. Cruz is also a very good wrestler and does well to get back to his feet in scrambles. Faber was accustomed to being the quicker man in the cage in many of his title fights, but when he faced Jose Aldo, he no longer had the speed advantage. I don’t anticipate him having it in this contest either. However, he will have the strength advantage in this one, and that could be important if he can draw this fight out and turn it into a more grinding affair. If this remains a striking contest, I think Faber will be picked apart. However, Joseph Benavidez was able to dirty the fight up a bit and nearly pull off the victory over Cruz in their rematch at WEC 50. I expect Faber to employ a similar strategy in this fight, with slightly better results. Faber via split-decision.
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UFC Live on Versus 4 Preview and Predictions
UFC Live on Versus 4 continues an unbelievably action-packed MMA month. The main event lost one of its’ competitors as Anthony Johnson had to withdraw due to injury. Rick Story, fresh off a win over Thiago Alves at UFC 130, took the opportunity to face off against Nate Marquardt in the main event. For Marquardt, the fight will mark his first fight as a welterweight in the UFC.
Matt Mitrione vs. Christian Morecraft: Mitrione is 4-0 in his young MMA career, and he’s knocked out three of his opponents. His last fight was a dominating TKO victory over Tim Hague at UFC Fight for the Troops 2. Meanwhile, Morecraft dropped his first fight in the UFC to Stefan Struve at UFC 117. However, Morecraft rebounded from that loss with a 2nd round submission victory over Sean McCorkle at UFC Fight Night 24. Mitrione will have the advantage standing in this fight. The Duke Roufus-trained heavyweight southpaw has improved his technique in each outing, and he certainly has enough power in his hands as well. His main weakness is his raw ground game, which really has yet to be exposed. That will likely be Morecraft’s strategy. If he can’t get this fight to the ground, he will get picked apart on his feet. Mitrione will likely have to fend off some takedown attempts, and may have to survive a few moments on the ground, but eventually, his combinations will finish off Morecraft. Mitrione via TKO in the 2nd.
Matt Brown vs. John Howard: This is a battle of two exciting welterweights. Brown is almost certainly fighting to keep his job in this one, as he’s dropped his past three fights to some tough competition. His last fight was a submission loss to Brian Foster at UFC 123. Brown is 11-10 in his MMA career, and 4-4 since entering the UFC. Howard has dropped his past two fights, possibly putting him on the chopping block as well. However, those losses were to tough welterweights in Jake Ellenberger,and most recently, Thiago Alves at UFC 124. I think Brown has the advantage standing, especially in a drawn-out slugfest, while Howard has the advantage when the fight hits the ground. I bank on Howard being able to take this fight there, and score enough points to win the fight. Howard via unanimous decision.
Pat Barry vs. Cheick Kongo: This is a heavyweight fight that has the potential to be an entertaining affair. Barry is one of the best strikers in the heavyweight division, while Kongo isn’t a bad striker in his own right, and possesses some of the better ground n’ pound in the division. Barry is coming off of a unanimous decision victory over Joey Beltran at UFC Fight for the Troops 2 after dropping his previous fight to Mirko Cro Cop. The former kickboxer relies on his striking, and has a gaping weakness in his ground game. Kongo is 8-4-1 in his UFC career, last fighting Travis Browne at UFC 120 in a fight that ended in a draw. Kongo also comes from a kickboxing and Muay Thai background, but has shown that he can utilize his strength to take down some of his lesser opponents. Once he has top position, Kongo’s ground n’ pound can be brutal. This could be a pretty fun fight depending on what strategy Kongo uses. If he is being successful on his feet, he may keep the fight standing longer than anticipated. However, I expect he will utilize his strength (as well as Barry’s weakness) and get this fight to the ground. Barry has shown that he is very inexperienced on his back, and I expect Kongo to expose that. Kongo via TKO in the 2nd.
Nate Marquardt vs. Rick Story: After struggling with some of the top wrestlers in the middleweight division, Marquardt decided to drop down to welterweight. It was a pretty bold move for a former title challenger who was still only a few wins away from another title shot. After originally signing to fight Anthony Johnson, Marquardt may have been forced to slightly alter his gameplan when Johnson went down with an injury and was replaced by Rick Story. Story is coming off an impressive win over Thiago Alves at UFC 130 where he utilized his wrestling as well as his striking. Story is starting to climb the welterweight rankings after winning his past six fights. A win over Marquardt here would make his second victory in just under a month. This is a tough fight to call. I’m not sure how Marquardt will handle the weight cut. He was always a pretty solidly built middleweight, and I had never given the possibility of him moving down a weight class much thought. If he comes into this fight sapped of energy, Story can certainly take advantage. Even if he comes into this fight 100%, Story is still talented enough to win this fight. However, I’m going with Marquardt. He’s a well-rounded fighter and should have the striking advantage in this one. Story is coming off a three-round fight less than a month ago, meaning he may not be as fresh in the latter stages of the fight as he needs to be. Marquardt via unanimous decision.
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UFC 131 Preview and Predictions
The second consecutive UFC Pay-Per-View that has lost at least one of it’s main event participants, UFC 131 also lost some drawing power when Brock Lesnar had to withdraw from his scheduled fight against Junior Dos Santos due to complications from diverticulitis. The UFC inserted a returning Shane Carwin into Lesnar’s spot, but the stakes remain the same: winner gets a title shot against Cain Velasquez.
Donald Cerrone vs. Vagner Rocha: After getting close to the top of the lightweight mountain in the WEC only to fall short in three title shots, Donald Cerrone probably felt the UFC/WEC merger could breathe new life into his career. In his first contest in the UFC’s lightweight division, Cerrone notched a submission win over Paul Kelly at UFC 126. The win improved Cerrone’s record to 14-3. Rocha will be making his UFC debut after amassing a 6-1 record in his young career. Rocha is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and is dangerous on the ground, but getting this fight there will be difficult for him. Cerrone will have a huge advantage in the standup department, and is good enough on the ground to get out of danger a time or two if the fight goes to the ground. Cerrone’s fights are normally exciting, so I expect nothing less out of him here. Cerrone via TKO in the 2nd.
Demian Maia vs. Mark Munoz: I’m really looking forward to this fight due to the large contrast in styles between the two fighters. Maia, a former title challenger to Anderson Silva, is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu wizard. He brings a UFC record of 8-2 into this contest, with losses only coming to Silva and Nate Marquardt. His last fight was a unanimous decision win over Kendall Grove at The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale. His wrestling is underrated, but his striking remains a weakness for him. He showed a willingness to somewhat mix it up with Grove, but part of that stemmed from Grove’s career long inability to utilize his reach advantage in his standup. Munoz is 12-2 in his MMA career, and is 5-2 in the UFC. He’s won his last two fights, defeating C.B. Dollaway at UFC Live on Versus: Sanchez vs. Kampmann in his last contest. He comes from a wrestling background, winning the NCAA tournament in 2001. He’s improved his striking game a great deal since entering the UFC, and even though it’s still not very refined, he should have the advantage over Maia on his feet. Maia handled the wrestling game of Chael Sonnen pretty well in their matchup at UFC 95, and Sonnen utilizes his wrestling better than Munoz does in MMA. To me, this is a toss-up. I could honestly see this fight going either way. I’ll bank on the strength and striking of Munoz to get him the victory. Munoz via TKO in the 2nd.
Jon Olav Einemo vs. Dave Herman: Very puzzling fight to be on the main card of a UFC Pay-Per-View. Einemo was basically brought in to give Shane Carwin an easy tune-up fight, but after Carwin was promoted to the main event, Dave Herman stepped in to face Einemo. Einemo is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt who sports a 6-1 career record, with a loss to Fabricio Werdum as the only negative mark. Sounds like a decent challenger, right? Well, Einemo hasn’t fought since 2006. Since that time, Herman has fought 22 times in that span, going 20-2. Herman has knockout power and a bit of an unorthodox striking style, and is a big favorite here for a reason. If Einemo can’t get this fight to the ground very very early, it’s over. Herman via TKO in the 1st.
Kenny Florian vs. Diego Nunes: Former lightweight title challenger Kenny Florian will make his debut in the featherweight division, as he takes on Diego Nunes. After dropping two title challenges to Sean Sherk and B.J. Penn and a number one contender fight to Gray Maynard at UFC 118, Florian decided to drop down to featherweight to make a run at a title. The cut didn’t seem too difficult for him, as reports indicate he handled it quite well. A pretty well-rounded fighter, Florian has a 14-5 MMA record, and is 11-4 in the UFC. Nunes is a tough matchup. He’s 16-1 in his MMA career, and had a 4-1 mark in the WEC before the merger. In his UFC debut, he defeated former featherweight champion Mike Brown via split-decision in a somewhat lackluster fight. I think Florian should have the advantage in most aspects of this fight. He’ll have more power than Nunes at 145, and though Nunes may be a little quicker, I think Florian is better technically in the standup game. On the ground, Florian has an underrated top game and grappling abilities. Nunes should be a good guage of how close Florian could be to a title shot, but I don’t see Florian losing this fight. Florian via unanimous decision.
Shane Carwin vs. Junior Dos Santos: The whole season of “Lesnar vs. Dos Sanos” just seems wasted now that Lesnar isn’t even in the main event. That’s not a criticism of Carwin, but Lesnar/Dos Santos was the more intriguing fight to me. Carwin is coming into this fight with a lot of question marks. At the age of 36, he is coming off a rather serious back surgery, and hasn’t fought in nearly a year. His last fight was his loss to Lesnar at UFC 116, a fight that he dominated in the first round before gassing out and getting submitted in the 2nd. Therefore, questions about his cardio that had been in place before and after his loss to Lesnar are even more relevant now that he is coming off the surgery and extended layoff. Carwin claims that he’s controlled his weight with a better diet and weighed in today at 254 pounds, and it will be interesting to see if he’s had to sacrifice anything in the strength department. Dos Santos has proven that he can go three full rounds, as he did in his fight against Roy Nelson at UFC 117. In that fight, Dos Santos battered a tough Nelson over all three rounds to win the unanimous decision. He has some of the best boxing in the heavyweight division, and has shown decent takedown defense, though it hasn’t been tested as much as Carwin could. His 6-0 record in the UFC has been impressive. This will likely be a standup fight. Carwin hasn’t been overly impressive with his wrestling since he’s been in the UFC, even with his extensive wrestling background. He likes to stand, and with the power he has, it’s understandable. However, in this fight he’s going up against a heavyweight who is much better technically, has the cardio advantage, and is almost his equal in power. If this fight gets past the first round, it’s all Dos Santos. Dos Santos via TKO in the 2nd.
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TUF 13 Finale Preview and Predictions
One of the least-watched seasons in The Ultimate Fighter history concludes on Saturday night. The main event features an intriguing lightweight fight between Clay Guida and Anthony Pettis, while Tony Ferguson will take on Ramsey Nijem to determine this season’s champion.
Chris Cope vs. Chuck O’Neil: The two losing semifinalists will battle in what amounts to a third-place fight. Both were overlooked early on in the show, as Cope was one of the last picks on Team Lesnar, and O’Neil came in as an injury replacement. Both guys seem to like to strike, and Cope showed pretty good takedown defense during his time on the show. Honestly, it’s hard to imagine either of these guys doing much after this fight. The loser is likely to get cut, and the winner will struggle to stay afloat in the UFC’s welterweight division. This should make for an entertaining fight. I think O’Neil is slightly better on his feet, and will utilize this to win a decision. O’Neil via uannimous decision.
Ed Herman vs. Tim Credeur: Two veterans of The Ultimate Fighter collide in this fight, one that will likely will result in the loser getting cut. Credeur is 3-1 in his UFC career, with the lone loss coming against Nate Quarry at UFC Fight Night 19. He hasn’t fought since that fight in September of 2009. He’s battled injuries that took him off of UFC Fight Night 20, and then was forced to withdraw from UFC 113 after a pre-fight brain scan revealed an anamoly that was later found to be nothing. Herman has battled injuries as well, and is 4-5 in his UFC career. His last fight was a loss to Aaron Simpson at UFC 102, where a knee injury suffered during the fight forced the fight to be stopped. Neither of these guys is very comfortable on their feet. Credeur has some good moments during the fight with Quarry, but eventually ended up on the losing end of that one as well. Both fighters are at their best on the mat. Neither is an exceptionally strong wrestler, but both are talented in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. I think the skills on the ground between the two fighters basically cancel each other out, so I wouldn’t be surprised if this was mainly a standup affair. If that happens, I’d give a narrow edge to Credeur. This is a pretty even matchup, so I won’t really be surprised with any outcome. I’ll go with Credeur via decision.
Fabio Maldonado vs. Kyle Kingsbury: Maldonado made his UFC debut at UFC 120, getting a TKO victory over James McSweeney. The win ran his overall MMA record to 18-3. Kingsbury is 3-1 in his UFC career, getting a TKO victory over Ricardo Romero in his last fight at UFC 126. Kingsbury comes from a wrestling background, while Maldonado comes from a boxing pedigree. Kingsbury will want to get this fight to the ground early and will want to wear down Maldonado. The longer the fight stays standing, the advantage swings to Maldonado. I think both fighters will have their moments in this fight, but Maldonado’s striking advantage will eventually win out. Maldonado via TKO in the 2nd.
Tony Ferguson vs. Ramsey Nijem: The coveted “six-figure contract” will be awarded to the winner of this fight. Ferguson defeated Justin Edwards via upkick TKO in his first fight on the show, and followed that with a knockout win over Ryan McGillivrary, and then a TKO win over Chuck O’Neil to reach the final. Prior to joining the show, Ferguson was 10-2 in his MMA career. Nijem only has five professional fights on his resume, and has won four of those. On the show, Nijem submitted Charlie Rader and Clay Harvison, and then earned a TKO victory over Chris Cope. Both fighters wrestled in college, with Ferguson having the slightly more distinguised college career. It’s hard to project how much these guys have improved since the show ended. Based on what we saw during the show, I think Ferguson has the advantage in the striking department, and I think the wrestling is pretty much a wash between the two. I’ll go with Ferguson via TKO, as I think his advantage in the striking department will be too much for Nijem to overcome.
Clay Guida vs. Anthony Pettis: The last WEC lightweight champion, Pettis had a title shot lined up before Edgar/Maynard II ended in a draw. Pettis agreed to the fight with Guida to stay active. Now, injuries to both Edgar and Maynard have pushed their rematch even further back on the schedule. I’m not quite sure how a Guida victory will affect the lightweight title picture, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt his cause. Pettis won the WEC lightweight championship with a thrilling decision victory over Ben Henderson at WEC 53. His cage-walking kick in the final round has made him somewhat of a celebrity, as the kick was shown on highlight shows across the networks. His 13-1 overall record is pretty impressive as well, though he hasn’t fought someone at Guida’s caliber. Guida has won his past three fights over Takanori Gomi, Rafael dos Anjos, and Shannon Gugerty after dropping consecutive fights to Diego Sanchez and Kenny Florian. Since training with Greg Jackson’s team, Guida’s striking has improved slightly, but he still feels most comfortable using his wrestling and pushing the pace with his incredible cardio. Pettis is a pretty solid defensive wrestler, and has shown good cardio as well. He was able to go five fast-paced rounds with Henderson and still saved his best work for the closing minutes of that fight. This is a tough fight to call. In the end, I think Pettis has too many tools for Guida to neutralize. I don’t think Guida’s typical gameplan of takedowns and clinching will be as successful against Pettis as it is against many other opponents. Pettis via unanimous decision.
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UFC 130 Preview and Predictions
UFC 130 lost it’s scheduled main event as both lightweight champion Frankie Edgar and his scheduled opponent Gray Maynard went down with injuries. The cancellation of their rematch elevated the co-main event fight between Quinton “Rampage” Jackson and Matt Hamill to the main event. Despite the loss of a highly anticipated fight, UFC 130 is still a pretty solid card from top to bottom.
Brian Stann vs. Jorge Santiago: Jorge Santiago makes his UFC return as he takes on the improving Brian Stann. After winning his debut in the UFC in 2006 over Justin Levens, Santiago dropped back-to-back fights to Chris Leben and Alan Belcher and left the promotion. Santiago went on to win his next nine fights in promotions such as Strikeforce and Sengoku. Santiago became the Sengoku middleweight champion after defeating Kazuo Misaki in 2009. He lost to highly regarded Mamed Khalidov in a non-title fight, but then defeated him via unanimous decision in a rematch for the title. He beat Misaki via TKO in one of the best fights of the year in his last contest. Stann, the former WEC light heavyweight champion, dropped his title to Steve Cantwell in his final fight in the WEC before the UFC absorbed the upper weight classes. In his first UFC contest, Stann was submitted in the first round by Krzysztof Soszynski. Stann won his next two fights before being dominated by Phil Davis in a unanimous decision loss at UFC 109. His last fight was an impressive first round stoppage over Chris Leben at UFC 125. Now training with Greg Jackson, Stann has improved his striking and remains a pretty heavy hitter. His main weakness is his wrestling, something that Santiago can exploit. I think the majority of this contest will take place standing. Stann may have more power, but I think Santiago is the better all-around standup fighter. He’s also more experienced. Should be a good back-and-forth battle, with Santiago getting his hand raised. Santiago via unanimous decision.
Stefan Struve vs. Travis Browne: Two gigantic heavyweights battle in this one. The 6′11 Struve is 5-2 in the UFC. He dropped his promotional debut in a first round TKO loss to Junior dos Santos, but rebounded with three straight wins over Denis Stojnic, Chase Gormley and Paul Buentello. Another first round TKO loss followed, this time to Roy Nelson. However, Struve has come back well again, getting stoppage victories over Christian Morecraft and Sean McCorkle. Browne won his UFC debut via TKO against James McSweeney, and earned a draw against Cheick Kongo at UFC 120 in his last fight. Struve is much more technical in his striking, as Browne is basically a brawler. If the fight hits the ground, Struve has a big advantage there as well. Struve has had moments in many of his fights where he’s been in trouble early. Some of those fights he’s come back and won (McCorkle/Morecraft), while other fighters were able to put him away (dos Santos/Nelson). Where does Browne fall on that scale? I’m guessing more towards the former than the latter. Struve via TKO in the 2nd.
Thiago Alves vs. Rick Story: Alves is trying to climb his way back up the welterweight ladder, while Story is looking to get to the top for the first time. After winning seven straight fights to earn his title shot against Georges St. Pierre, Alves was dominated by the champ over five rounds, losing a unanimous decision. In his first fight after the title shot, Alves missed weight and was then defeated by Jon Fitch via unanimous decision. After contemplating moving up to the middleweight division (mainly due to pressure from UFC officials), Alves was given one more shot at welterweight. He fought impressively at UFC 124, defeating John Howard via unanimous decision. Story lost his UFC debut to John Hathaway at UFC 99, but hasn’t tasted defeat since, winning his past five fights. His last fight was a unanimous decision win over Johny Hendricks at The Ultimate Fighter 12 Finale. Story will have the wrestling advantage in this one, and will have to utilize it to keep himself out of danger on the feet and to attempt to wear down Alves. Does he have enough wrestling to be able to take Alves down and keep him there? I don’t think so. It’s inevitable that Alves will be taken down in this fight, but I think his takedown defense is adequate enough to keep him standing for a good deal of the fight. Story is an aggressive and tough fighter who will be a very good test for Alves. I wouldn’t be shocked if Story actually beat Alves. However, the smart money here is on Alves. Alves via unanimous decision.
Roy Nelson vs. Frank Mir: Two heavyweights just outside the title picture will battle in this one. Mir is trying to rebound from a lackluster showing in his last fight, a 3rd round TKO victory over Mirko Cro Cop. Neither fighter did much in the first two rounds before Mir finally landed a big knee with under a minute remaining in the fight. Prior to the victory over Cro Cop, Mir had dropped two of his past three fights, with a submission victory over Cheick Kongo sandwiched between (T)KO losses to Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. Nelson last fought at UFC 117, where he was battered by Junior dos Santos over three rounds in a unanimous decision loss. Nelson had won his first two UFC fights, defeating Brendan Schaub to win the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter, and stopping Stefan Struve in under a minute at UFC Fight Night: Florian vs. Gomi. This is a tough fight to call. Both fighters are black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and both have had good moments on their feet in their carrers. Nelson is probably regarded as the better striker of the two, and is the better wrestler as well. I don’t think the advantage that Nelson has on his feet is as large as some do, but I think it may be enough. It’s hard to pick Frank Mir. He’s had many uneven performances in recent years,while Nelson pretty much fights to his level in every fight. For that reason, I’m picking Nelson via unanimous decision.
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Matt Hamill: Maybe not a blockbuster main-event, but a fight that I think could end up being pretty entertaining. Rampage Jackson is looking to get one more shot at the top of the division, while Hamill is looking to get up there for the first time. Jackson is coming off a somewhat surprising split-decision victory over Lyoto Machidat at UFC 123. He fought very patiently and was able to win the first two rounds before he Machida put him in danger in the third. Jackson was able to hang on for the victory. Jackson seemed to be in much better shape than he was for his fight against Rashad Evans at UFC 114, where Evans earned the victory. In his UFC career, Jackson is 6-2, with wins over Chuck Liddell, Dan Henderson, Wanderlei Silva, Keith Jardine and Lyoto Machida. A pretty impressive list. He won the light heavyweight championship with the victory over Liddell at UFC 71, and defended it against Dan Henderson at UFC 75 before dropping the title in a controversial decision loss to Forrest Griffin at UFC 86. Hamill has had a slow rise to the top. After competing in the third season of The Ultimate Fighter, Hamill fought in only his second professional fight at the show’s finale, defeating Jesse Forbes via TKO. The UFC gave him some lightly regarded fighters in Seth Petruzelli and Rex Holman for his next two fights, which ran his record to 4-0. Hamill next fought Michael Bisping at UFC 75, losing a very controversial split-decisino. A win over Tim Boetsch gave him a shot against close friend Rich Franklin at UFC 88, where Hamill lost via TKO. Hamill has won his past five fights, although the “victory” against current UFC Light Heavyweight champion Jon Jones should have been counted as a loss as Jones was DQ’d for using illegal elbows, even though Hamill was already unable to continue due to an injury suffered as Jones slammed him to the mat. In his last fight, Hamill won a unanimous decision over Tito Ortiz at UFC 121. Hamill is somewhat notable by being the first deaf fighter in the UFC, but he also has some skills. He was a very talented collegiate wrestler and has improved his striking game a great deal since entering the UFC. He’s a tough fighter, and won’t back down from a fight with Jackson. His only chance in this one though seems to utilize his wrestling to control Jackson on the ground. I don’t think he’ll be able to win prolonged striking exchanges with Jackson as even though he hits hard, his striking is nowhere near as crisp and technical as Jackson’s. I’m looking for Rampage to expose some of those holes in Hamill’s striking game en route to a victory. Jackson via TKO in the 2nd.
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UFC 129: St. Pierre vs. Shields Preview and Predictions
One of the biggest events for this UFC this year takes place Saturday night. UFC 129 marks the promotion’s debut in Toronto, and over 50,000 fans are expected to be on hand in the Rogers Centre. They’ll be treated to two title fights, as Canadian star Georges St. Pierre defends his welterweight title against Jake Shields, and featherweight champion Jose Aldo will make his debut in the UFC as he defends the title against Mark Hominick.
Benson Henderson vs. Mark Bocek: Henderson, the former lightweight champion of the WEC,will be making his UFC debut in this contest. It won’t be an easy fight, as Bocek is a solid fighter. Henderson enters this contest with a 12-2 MMA record, and was 5-1 in his WEC career. His lone loss came in his last fight, as Anthony Pettis became the last ever WEC lightweight champion, defeating Henderson via decision at WEC 53. Henderson, a former collegiate wrestler, combines solid wrestling ability with pretty good submissions. His striking is still improving, but has come a long way since his WEC debut. Bocek is 9-3 in his MMA career, and has a 5-3 record in the UFC. He’s spent the majority of his time in the UFC taking on lower to middle-tier lightweights, and when his competition has improved, he hasn’t been as successful. His three UFC losses were to current UFC lightweight champion Frankie Edgar, Mac Danzig, and Jim Miller. Bocek is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but doesn’t offer much in the way of striking. Even a slightly above average striker like Henderson will look good on his feet against Bocek. I also think that Henderson’s submission defense and transitions on the ground will be just enough to keep himself out of danger on the ground. Henderson via unanimous decision.
Jason Brilz vs. Vladimir Matyushenko: Little puzzled as to how this fight made the main card, but I digress. Brilz is 3-2 in the UFC, losing his last fight to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in a close split-decision at UFC 114. Brilz was scheduled to take on Phil Davis on this card, but Davis got bumped up to fight Nogueira at UFC Fight Night 24. Vladimir Matyushenko was named as the replacement. Matyushenko has compiled a 25-5 MMA record, and a 6-4 record during his two stints in the UFC. He was dominated by current light heavyweight champion Jon Jones at UFC: Jones vs. Matyushenko, but rebounded to beat Alexandre Ferreira at UFC 122. Both guys come from wrestling backgrounds, but Matyushenko is the more accomplished wrestler. In fact, I think Matyushenko is slightly better in all areas than Brilz. It’s hard to determine how age will play a role here. Matyushenko is coming to the end of his career at age 40, but Brilz isn’t exactly a youngster either at 35. I’ll go with Matyushenko via unanimous decision.
Randy Couture vs. Lyoto Machida: Randy Couture takes on Lyoto Machida in what could possibly be his last fight. Prior to this fight against Machida, Couture stated that he’d likely retire after this contest, but in true Couture fashion, left the door open if UFC President Dana White could present him with other interesting fights. The UFC legend has won his past three fights, though neither the competition, nor his performance, has shown that he can still hang with the best in the world. Couture struggled in a decision win over Brandon Vera at UFC 105, then dominated a completely shot Mark Coleman at UFC 109, and a fighter who had no business being in the Octagon in James Toney at UFC 118. He made the decision to drop down to the light heavweight class after losses to Brock Lesnar and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira. Machida is in desperate need for a win in this contest. After he dismantled Rashad Evans to win the light heavyweight title at UFC 98, many were already proclaiming this would be the “Machida Era.” However, a controversial unanimous decision win over Mauricio “Shogun” Rua at UFC 104 showed there were flaws in his game, and Shogun exploited those in the rematch, knocking Machida out in the first round. Machida took on Quinton “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 123, and was very tenative in the first two rounds. He came on in the third, but it wasn’t enough as he lost the split-decision. Machida needs a win over Couture to stay relavant in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. This is an extremely tough matchup for Couture. I don’t think he can really get in close range like he likes to do due to Machida’s striking and speed advantage. Couture needs to get this to the ground early and often to really have a chance, and to do that, he’ll have to try and close the distance. I think it’s going to be nearly impossible for Couture to do, leaving him little chance to pull the upset. I’m hoping Randy can at least go the distance, but I’m not entirely sure that will happen. Machida via TKO in the 2nd.
Jose Aldo vs. Mark Hominick: Making his debut in the UFC, featherweight champion Jose Aldo is considered by some to be a top 5 fighter in the world pound-for-pound. I think it’s a tad early to start making those statements, but he has pretty much cleared out a weak featherweight division. Aldo began his WEC career with four straight wins before taking a step up in competition against Cub Swanson at WEC 41. After KO’ing Swanson in 8 seconds, Aldo served notice that he was going to be a force to be reckoned with in that division. The win over Swanson earned him a title fight against Mike Brown. Aldo dominated Brown, finishing him in the 2nd round to claim the featherweight title. A five-round beat down of former featherweight champion Urijah Faber at the WEC’s first Pay-Per-View cemented him as the best featherweight in the world, and his next successful defense over Manny Gamburyan at WEC 51 didn’t change that. Hominick has won his past five fights (four in the WEC). His last fight was a TKO victory over George Roop in his UFC return at UFC Fight for the Troops 2. Hominick is 20-8 in his MMA career, and he holds a 2-0 record in the UFC from when he used to compete in the lightweight division. Hominick is known mainly for his striking, and his ground game is a weakness. His only chance to win this fight is to win the striking exchanges with Aldo. He’ll go right at Aldo, but I think eventually Aldo will catch him with his vast array of strikes. Hominick is a solid fighter who has a chance if he can connect early, but in the end I think Aldo is the better fighter, and will get the better of the exchanges. Aldo via TKO in the 3rd.
Georges St. Pierre vs. Jake Shields: Former Strikeforce champion Jake Shields will make his second appearance in the UFC Octagon as he challenges Georges St. Pierre for the welterweight title. After a 14 fight winning streak, Shields was allowed to leave Strikeforce as they were in the process of trying to renegotiate his contract. He signed with the UFC, and took on Martin Kampmann in his debut with the promotion at UFC 121. It wasn’t a great performance, as Shields looked like the first cut to welterweight that he had made in a few years hampered his performance. During his long winning streak, Shields defeated solid competitors in Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Mike Pyle, Paul Daley, Robbie Lawler and “Mayhem” Miller. Still, he was an underdog to Dan Henderson in their middleweight title fight at Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Shields. After weathering an early assault from Henderson, Shields dominated the rest of the contest en route to the unanimous decision win. Shields is known primarily for his Jiu Jitsu and wrestling, but his striking still isn’t where it needs to be to compete with a fighter like Georges St. Pierre. There’s not much to say about Georges St. Pierre. He’s widely considered the #1 or #2 best pound-for-pound fighter in the world, and has cleared out nearly the entire welterweight division in the UFC. The only blemishs on his otherwise spectacular resume were losses to Matt Hughes and Matt Serra, losses that he eventually avenged. Since his loss to Matt Serra at UFC 69, GSP has won eight straight fights, beating Josh Koscheck twice, along with Hughes, Serra, Jon Fitch, B.J. Penn, Thiago Alves and Dan Hardy. It’s hard to find a weakness in GSP’s game. His striking is very good, and his wrestling is probably the best in the division. He’s an extremely well-rounded fighter who works incredibly hard to stay that way. I think Shields is in for a rough night here. His wrestling isn’t good enough to get GSP to the ground, and his striking isn’t good enough for him to utilize it to setup his takedowns. I expect St. Pierre to batter Shields standing, and take this fight to the ground when he needs to. Shields main weapon is his Jiu Jitsu, but although it’s a very good weapon, he’s not great off of his back. Unfotunately for Shields, I think he’ll find himself there often. St. Pierre via unanimous decision.
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Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley Preview and Predictions
Strikeforce: Diaz vs. Daley features two championship fights for the newly Zuffa-owned promotion, and should provide exciting action and interesting matchups.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Keith Jardine: Former UFC light heavyweight contender Keith Jardine is stepping up on short notice as a replacement for Mike Kyle. Jardine received his walking papers from the UFC after dropping four straight fights. He fought Trevor Prangley at Shark Fights 13 after his release, and dropped a split-decision. He’s rebounded to win consecutive fights over lesser competition, but many question his ability to fight middle to top tier opponents at this stage of his career. His fighting style remains the same, but his chin seems to have gone. Once that happens, it’s nearly impossible for a fighter to remain a contender. Mousasi was on a 12 fight winning streak before he took on “Babalu” Sobral for the Strikeforce light heavyweight championship at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg. When he dispatched Sobral in about a minute, many were proclaiming that he would rule Strikeforce’s rather weak light heavyweight division for quite some time. In his first title defense, Muhammed Lawal dominated him for five rounds en route to the unanimous decision win. Mousasi won at DREAM 15 and DREAM 16, but this will be his first fight for Strikeforce since he lost his title. A few years ago, this would have beena pretty good matchup. I’m not so sure it is anymore. Jardine’s chin seems to be shot, and on paper, it looks like Mousasi should be able to pick him apart. It may take Mousasi a little time to figure out Jardine’s unique style, but once he does, he’ll end it quickly. Mousasi via TKO in the 2nd.
Shinya Aoki vs. Lyle Beerbohm: Aoki needs a win in Strikeforce to keep himself relevant in the North American MMA landscape. His last appearance in Strikeforce was as a title challenger to Gilbert Melendez. Aoki was dominated over five rounds, never really appearing to have a chance at victory. His rudimentary striking game was picked apart by Melendez, and he couldn’t deal with Melendez’s wrestling or strength. He’s one of the best submission artists in the division, but unfortunately lacks the wrestling or striking to really set that aspect of his game up. Beerbohm started his Strikeforce career 3-0, but dropped a unanimous decision to Pat Healy at a Strikeforce: Challengers card in February. Beerbohm’s path to victory is to follow Melendez’s game plan, but unfortunately for him, he doesn’t have Melendez’s wrestling or striking. His striking is better than Aoki’s, though that’s not really saying much. Also, Beebohm was out grappled at times in the fight against Healy. That doesn’t bode well for him if this fight goes to the ground. Could he possibly smother Aoki for three rounds? Maybe. However, I think Aoki will find a weakness and exploit it, leading to a submission. Aoki via submission in the 1st.
Gilbert Melendez vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri: These two first matched up in 2006, with Melendez getting the unanimous decision victory. The win for Melendez was huge for his career, as Kawajiri was considered one of the best lightweights in the world at that point. Melendez was already the Strikeforce lightweight champion at the time, but the victory earned him added noteriety. After dropping the lightweight championship to Josh Thomson, Melendez won the interim title by defeating Rodrigo Damm, defended it in a victory over Mitsuhiro Ishida, and unified the belts with a win in the rematch against Thomson. Melendez last fought last April, dominating Shinya Aoki to retain the title. Melendez is considered one of the best lightweights outside of the UFC, and the purchase of Strikeforce by Zuffa could put him in some very exciting fights in the future. Kawajiri remains dangerous, but is likely on the downside of his career at 32 years old and after 35 fights. He last fought at Dynamite!! 2010, defeating Josh Thomson via unanimous decision. Malendez will likely set a very fast pace as he always does. I think his improving striking is better than Kwajiri’s and though they are pretty evenly matched on the ground, I think Melendez is slightly better. Melendez via unanimous decision.
Paul Daley vs. Nick Diaz: Diaz defends his welterweight title against the dangerous Paul Daley. Diaz has won nine straight fights, and has established himself as one of the better welterweights in the world. He won the Strikeforce welterweight title by knocking out Marius Zaromskis at Strikeforce: Miami. He’s since defended the belt twice, winning a decision over K.J. Noons and submitting Evangelista Santos in January. Daley will be his toughest fight since winning the title. After his release from the UFC for his post-fight punch of Josh Koscheck, Daley won fights in smaller organizations before being signed by Strikeforce. His first fight for the organization was a devastating KO victory over Scott Smith at Strikeforce: Henderson vs. Babalu. This will mark his second fight for the organization, and first since it was purchased by Zuffa, the company that cut him. He’ll need an impressive performance to avoid being cut again, as he has made it known he wasn’t happy that he was now technically working for Zuffa again. I’m sure the feeling is mutual. Diaz’s main strengths are his dangerous submission game and his technically crisp striking. He is dangerous on the ground, but his wrestling sometimes isn’t good enough to get fights there. It remains a weakness in his overall game. Daley has worked hard on his takedown defense in recent years, and I don’t think Diaz will have an easy time taking him down. That normally isn’t an issue for Diaz, who enjoys fighting a standup game as well. He normally has the advantage with his reach and his solid jabs. However, in this contest he is facing a striker who could end his night with one punch. It will be very dangerous for Diaz to stand in front of Daley and try to win the striking exchanges. This is a very tough fight to call. I think Diaz has the definite advantage on the ground, and could also very well stay on the outside and pepper Daley with jabs and leg kicks for five rounds. However, if this turns into a firefight, I could very well see Daley landing a left hook to end things quickly. I’m going with Daley. I think Diaz will have a difficult time getting this fight to the ground, turning it into a kickboxing match. Daley is too powerful, and will eventually land a bomb. Daley via TKO in the 3rd.
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