Live Coverage of UFC 109
I’ll be live tweeting analysis and results of UFC 109 beginning with the Spike Prelims at 8pm Central. Be sure to follow us on twitter to get round-by-round coverage!
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UFC 109 Preview and Predictions
UFC 109 has been slammed by some due to the age of the participants in the main event (91 years old combined), but the card features several important undercard matchups that will determine future title challengers in the middleweight and welterweight divisions.
Frank Trigg vs. Matt Serra: The loser of this fight could be a little light on job security. Trigg came back to the UFC after a four-year absence to face Josh Koscheck at UFC 103. Koscheck battered Trigg early and often, getting the TKO stoppage just over a minute into the first round. There were some rumors that Trigg was going to be released after that fight, but UFC matchmaker Joe Silva and Dana White decided to give Trigg another shot. Trigg was a phenominal amateur wrestler, and nearly made the U.S. Olympic wrestling team in 2000. Trigg went 2-3 in the UFC in his first run, losing to Matt Hughes twice and Georges St. Pierre. After leaving the UFC, Trigg won seven of his next nine fights to claim a top-10 welterweight ranking in some publications prior to his fight with Koscheck. The 37 year old is 19-7 overall in his career. Serra is coming off of back-to-back losses, and has only fought twice in the last two-and-a-half years since his upset victory over Georges St. Pierre to win the welterweight title in April of 2007. He lost the rematch to GSP at UFC 83 and finally fought Matt Hughes at UFC 98 where he dropped a unanimous decision. Serra is 9-6 overall in his career, and is 6-6 inside the UFC. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, though he’s never utilized those skills fully inside the Octagon. He also has good power in his punches, though he relies on his striking a little too much. Serra’s short stature makes it difficult for him when he faces larger opponents. He’ll be at a reach disadvantage against Trigg, though it won’t be as pronounced as the disadvantage he has against some bigger welterweights. This fight is a toss-up to me. I can see Trigg’s wrestling controlling the majority of the contest. With his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Serra can be dangerous from the bottom, but as I stated earlier, his submission game from the guard isn’t often utilized. In fact, the last opponent that Serra submitted was Kelly Dullanty all the way back at UFC 36. Trigg’s striking game still has holes, and Serra can exploit them if the fight remains standing. I think Serra will catch Trigg eventually, and will be able to pound out a finish. Serra via TKO in the 2nd.
Demian Maia vs. Dan Miller: Maia is going to try and get back in the UFC middleweight title hunt after his devastating opening-minute KO loss to Nate Marquardt at UFC 102 in August. He proclaimed before that fight that he would show a better striking game than he had shown in the past, but an ill-fated jumping knee is what got him knocked out against Marquardt. Despite the striking holes in his game, Maia usually makes up for it with some of the slickest Brazilian Jiu Jitsu in all of MMA. He submitted his first five opponents inside the Octagon, including guys such as Nate Quarry and Chael Sonnen. The way he flows from one submission attempt to the next is really a joy to watch. Miller also dropped his last fight, a dominating unanimous decision loss to Chael Sonnen at UFC 98. He’s a pretty well-rounded fighter. He has a wrestling background, and usually has solid takedown defense, though he was unable to stop Sonnen’s wrestling. His striking is usually a weakness for him, but in this contest he’ll actually have the striking advantage. Miller has recently been awarded his black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but his skills on the ground are nowhere near the level of Maia’s. It’s for that reason that I believe Miller will try to keep this fight standing as much as possible. He’ll try and utilize his wrestling in reverse, stopping Maia’s takedowns to keep the fight on the feet. Even though Maia’s wrestling isn’t great, he’s also not afraid to pull guard. It’s going to be important for Miller to avoid clinching with Maia. I just don’t think Miller’s striking is dynamic enough to offset Maia’s all-world BJJ skills. Eventually, Maia will catch him and finish the fight. Maia via submission in the 2nd.
Mike Swick vs. Paulo Thiago: Swick’s chances for a title shot against UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre evaporated when he was dominated by Dan Hardy at UFC 105. He’s stepping in for injured teammate Josh Koscheck, who was set to rematch Thiago, who defeated him at UFC 95. Prior to that loss, Swick had won four straight fights and nine out of 10 overall. One of the fighters in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter, Swick has an overall record of 14-3, including a 9-2 record in the UFC. He mixes in solid wrestling and takedown defense to go along with a pretty good striking game, even though he lost that battle against Hardy. Thiago has taken some tough fights since entering the UFC. He entered the Octagon for the first time at UFC 95 as a huge underdog to Josh Koscheck, but connected on a viscious uppercut that floored and finished him in the first round. He faced Koscheck and Swick’s teammate Jon Fitch at UFC 100, dropping a unanimous decision. Thiago then faced Jacob Volkmann at UFC 106 in November, defeating him by unanimous decision in an exciting fight. Thiago is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and also showed some decent wrestling in his loss to Fitch. His striking remains his weakness however. Even in the knockout win over Koscheck, he was getting tagged repeatedly before landing the knockout blow. Swick should be able to use his range to keep Thiago off-balance and should utilize his hand speed to batter Thiago when the fight is standing. Swick’s takedown defense is very underrated, and his defensive Brazilian Jiu Jitsu is solid as well. I think Swick will be able to win this fight, though Thiago is certainly a threat. Swick via unanimous decision.
Nate Marquardt vs. Chael Sonnen: UFC president Dana White has stated that the winner of this fight will face the winner of the Anderson Silva/Vitor Belfort fight for the middleweight title. I found it a little puzzling, considering that Sonnen isn’t far removed from being submitted by Demian Maia in the first round of their fight back at UFC 95. However, Sonnen has strung together back-to-back wins over Jim Miller and Yushin Okami to even his UFC record back up at 3-3. Overall, Sonnen is 24-10 in his career, and of those 24 wins, 14 have been via decision. His main asset is his excellent wrestling ability. Sonnen was a national champion in collegiate wrestling, and served as an alternate on the U.S. Olympic wrestling team as well. As with many of the guys at Team Quest, he’s had trouble rounding out the rest of his game however. He’s always had trouble with his submission defense, and his striking is average at best. Marquardt is coming off a knockout win over Demian Maia at UFC 102. He was rumored to face Dan Henderson for a shot at Anderson Silva before Henderson left to go to Strikeforce. Marquardt is one of the most well-rounded fighters in the UFC. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, has solid wrestling and takedown defense, and his striking seems to get better every time out. He’s 29-8 in his MMA career, and is an impressive 8-2 in his UFC career. He lost to Anderson Silva in his first title shot at UFC 73, but has improved greatly as a fighter since that fight. Sonnen’s only hope is to smother Marquardt for all three rounds, but with Marquardt’s solid Jiu Jitsu skills, that won’t be easy. Even though Marquardt doesn’t use his BJJ offensively very often, he does utilize it to create scrambles and to get back to his feet. Marquardt will certainly have the edge in the striking department. I think it’ll just be a matter of time until Marquardt gets the win here. Marquardt via TKO in the 2nd.
Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman: Two UFC hall-of-famers and tremendous amateur wrestlers will clash in the main event of UFC 109. Coleman won a NCAA national championship in wrestling at Ohio State and wrestled with the U.S. Olympic team in 1992 where he finished seventh. He was the first UFC heavyweight champion, winning the title by beating Dan Severn at UFC 12. However, Coleman dropped his next three fights in the UFC and left to go to PRIDE. He dropped his first fight there too, but rebounded to win his next six fights along with the PRIDE openweight Grand Prix in 2000. Coleman went on to lose fights to superstars such as Mirko Cro Cop, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, and Fedor Emelianenko before leaving the sport for three years beginning in 2006. Coleman returned to the sport and to the UFC in 2009 at UFC 93, losing to Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in the 3rd round via TKO. Coleman was visibly gassed as early as the first round in that fight. However, he returned to the Octagon at UFC 100, upsetting Stephan Bonnar via unanimous decision. Coleman was in much better condition for that contest.
Couture was also an All-American wrestler in college, and also was a national runner-up twice. He was a U.S. Olympic wrestling team alternate three times, and was a semifinalist at the 2000 U.S. Olympic trials. He began his MMA career at UFC 13 and won his first seven fights inside the Octagon before dropping his UFC heavyweight championship to Josh Barnett at UFC 36 (Barnett tested positive for steroids after the contest). He dropped his next fight to Ricco Rodriguez for the now vacant UFC heavyweight championship before dropping down to light heavyweight. At light heavyweight, Couture won the interim light heavyweight championship by beating Chuck Liddell at UFC 43, then won the unified title by beating Tito Ortiz at UFC 44. He lost the title to Vitor Belfort due to a cut, but defeated Belfort in a rematch. Couture lost to Liddell twice in subsequent rematches before a contract dispute ended his UFC career for a year in 2006-2007. Couture made a triumphant return to the UFC by winning the heavyweight championship by defeating Tim Sylvia at UFC 68. He defended his championship by defeating Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 74 before losing the title to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91. A loss to Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in his next fight at UFC 102 showed Couture he needed to drop back to light heavyweight where his size wouldn’t be such a disadvantage. Couture defeated Brandon Vera in a very close fight at UFC 105.
The difference in this fight should be the evolution of the two fighters. Coleman hasn’t done much to change his game from his ground n’ pound roots. Meanwhile, Couture has incorporated an outstanding clinch game to go along with decent striking skills that compliment his outstanding wrestling. In this fight with two outstanding wrestlers, it will be Couture’s more well-rounded game along with his superior conditioning that will win him the fight. Couture via TKO in the 3rd.
Preliminary Card:
Rolles Gracie over Joey Beltran via submission in the 1st
Chris Tuchscherer over Tim Hague via unanimous decision
Brian Stann over Phil Davis via TKO in the 2nd
Phillipe Nover over Rob Emerson via unanimous decision
Ronnys Torres over Melvin Guillard by submission in the 2nd
Mac Danzig over Justin Buchholz via submission in the 1st
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Strikeforce: Miami Preview and Predictions
Strikeforce: Miami should garner quite a bit of attention, though not necessarily for the right reasons. One of the best fights on the card, a welterweight showdown between Jay Hieron and Joe Riggs, isn’t even scheduled to appear on the main card. However, Strikeforce is putting fights featuring former NFL running back Herschel Walker and former WWE superstar Bobby Lashley on the main card, despite both of those fights looking like squash matches on paper. The card should definitely be interesting, though not necessarily pretty to watch.
Jay Hieron vs. Joe Riggs: Hieron is one of Strikeforce’s top welterweights, and a title shot is probably coming shortly for him if he can dispatch of Riggs. Hieron is on a six-fight winning streak, last beating Jesse Taylor by decision at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg. He’s 18-4 in his MMA career, and had a brief run in the UFC relatively early in his career, dropping fights to Georges St. Pierre and Jonathan Goulet. He trains out of Xtreme Couture, and has a strong wrestling base to go along with decent striking skills. Riggs is also a veteran of the UFC, where he went 4-4. Overall, Riggs is 32-11 in his MMA career, with notable wins over Nick Diaz, Chris Lytle and Kendall Grove earlier in his career. He’s on a 4-fight win streak of his own, and won two fights in December in the Rage in the Cage promotion. His last Strikeforce win came over Phil Baroni at Strikeforce: Lawler vs. Shields. Riggs is a threat to Hieron here if he took Riggs too lightly. Riggs has solid knockout power and decent grappling ability. However, despite the fact that Riggs is only 27 years old, his body has taken a lot of punishment over the years. In addition to his 43 fights, Riggs has also fought recurring back issues in the past few years. I think Hieron will definitely have the edge in this fight the longer that it goes. Hieron via unanimous decision.
Herschel Walker vs. Greg Nagy: Kind of a tough fight to breakdown here. Walker, the former NFL running back and Heisman trophy winner, will be making his MMA debut at the age of 47. He has a background in Tae Kwon Do but just started training MMA a few months ago. However, Walker trains with the American Kickboxing Academy, one of the top gyms in the world, and the trainers there say he is a fast learner. How fast he’s picked up the skills remains to be seen, but if the weigh ins are any indication, Walker is in extrordinary physical shape. Nagy isn’t exactly a MMA veteran himself, with a pro record of 1-1. What little film there is on the guy shows a fighter with below average striking, wrestling, and Jiu Jitsu skills, which should make him the perfect matchup for Walker. Walker is the favorite, and his pure athletic talents should carry him to a victory here over a pretty bad opponent. Walker via TKO in the 2nd.
Bobby Lashley vs. Wes Sims: Strikeforce had a helluva time trying to find an opponent for Lashley. I won’t even get into how many possible opponents were thrown out there, but the end result is Wes Sims. Yikes. Sims got the call with about one week before the fight, and admitted he hasn’t been training. He certainly didn’t appear to be in peak physical shape at the weigh ins today. He was one of the heavyweights on the most recent season of The Ultimate Fighter, and his first round submission loss to Justin Wren in the opening round of the competition shows where Sims is as a fighter at this point in his career. Sims is 22-12 in his career, but really hasn’t fought anyone since he was released from the UFC following three consecutive losses. His reach can give people problems, but Sims brings very little else to the table. This will be Lashley’s fifth professional fight, and sadly enough, Sims is probably the best guy he’s fought. Lashley’s last fight was a first round win over freakshow Bob Sapp. Lashley was a two-time NAIA wrestling champion before his career in the WWE began, so he does have a solid wrestling base. Lashley’s been training at American Top Team in Florida, one of the top gyms in the sport, but he splits his time between training for MMA and wrestling for TNA. Until he gives up wrestling and focuses on his MMA training full-time, he won’t become an elite fighter. However, right now he’s good enough to beat Sims. I don’t think Sims will be able to stop Lashley’s takedown attempts, and he won’t have anything to offer from the bottom position on the ground either. Part of me wants to see Sims win, just for the hilarity of the situation, but it won’t happen. Lashley via TKO in the 1st.
Robbie Lawler vs. Melvin Mahoef: This fight could be the highlight of the night as it features two exciting strikers that aren’t afraid to go toe-to-toe. Lawler is a veteran of the UFC, PRIDE, the IFL, Elite XC and Strikeforce. He’s 18-5 in his career and holds notable wins over Scott Smith, Frank Trigg, Joey Villasenor, and Chris Lytle. He trains with Matt Hughes at the HIT squad, the gym that they co-own. He’s mainly a striker, though training with Hughes and other wrestlers over the years have turned him into an adequate wrestler. He’s struggled with submission defense at times during his career, but that certainly won’t be an issue against Manhoef. Manhoef is one of the most feared strikers in the sport, and has amassed a 24-6 MMA record during his career. His ground game is still very weak, and that is something Lawler will want to expose. If Lawler wants to keep this fight standing, the fight will be wildly entertaining for however long it lasts. I know Lawler’s brain will probably tell him to go for the takedown, but I have a feeling he’ll want to try and slug it out with Manhoef. It’ll be a mistake. Manhoef hasn’t had a MMA fight last past the first round since the middle of 2007, and I don’t think that’ll change tomorrow night. Manhoef via TKO in the 1st.
Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos vs. Marloes Coenen: Cyborg is coming off a win over Gina Carano at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg. Cyborg basically overwhelmed Carano from the opening bell, and Gina had no match for Cyborg’s power. I’m not sure this fight looks a whole lot different. Cyborg is 8-1 in her MMA career, with the lone loss coming by way of submission in her first professional fight. She trains at Chute Boxe alongside mostly men, and she’s been working to improve her ground game as well. Coenen is 17-3 in her MMA career, and is 2-0 in Strikeforce. She last fought at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers where she beat Roxanne Modafferi by submission in the first round. She also has some decent striking skills, though nowhere near the power that Santos has. Her ground game is solid, but I don’t think she really has the wrestling ability to count on that as an advantage. This fight will probably stay standing, and though Coenen may have the technical advantage, all it will take is one power shot from Cyborg to change this fight. Cyborg Santos via TKO in the 2nd.
Nick Diaz vs. Marius Zaromskis: This fight will crown the first Strikeforce welterweight champion, so it’s a five-round affair. Diaz hasn’t fought since June of last year due to scheduling problems as well as his own failure to obtain a license from the state of California prior to his scheduled fight with Jay Hieron at Strikeforce: Canano vs. Cyborg. Diaz brings a very good boxing background into this fight to go along with his fantastic Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills, where he is a black belt under Cesar Gracie. He’s 20-7 in his career, and is on a five-fight win streak dating back to the middle of 2008. In his career, he’s defeated Chris Lytle, Robbie Lawler, Josh Neer and Scott Smith. A submission win over Takanori Gomi in PRIDE was changed to a no-contest after Diaz tested positive for marijuana after the fight. Zaromskis has really made a name for himself in the last year after several highlight-reel knockout wins over in Japan. He’s 13-3 in his career and has won his last five fights. The level of competition he’s faced isn’t the same that Diaz has faced during his career, and that certainly is a concern here. Diaz will have a large reach advantage in this fight, and he needs to use it to keep Zaromskis off balance. He needs to be concerned with the incredible head kicks from Zaromskis as well. Diaz will definitely have the advantage on the ground, but like his brother Nate, he seems to have fallen in love with his striking more than his ground game in recent fights. Plus, Zaromskis has improved his takedown defense to at least an adequate level. Although Diaz is the more technical striker of the two, he doesn’t really have enough power to really hurt Zaromskis, while we are positive Zaromskis has enough power to hurt Diaz. I think this fight will be controlled by Diaz early, before he finally gets caught with a power shot from Zaromskis. Zaromskis via TKO in the 2nd.
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Forrest Griffin vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira Likely for UFC 113
Earlier reports indicated that a matchup of light heavyweights Forrest Griffin and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira would likely take place sometime this spring. Reports from today indicate that the fight will likely happen at UFC 113 in Montreal. Both fighters have agreed to the fight and are waiting to finalize the contracts.
Griffin and Nogueira both fought in November on the card of UFC 106. Griffin won a split-decision over Tito Ortiz in the main event, while Nogueira dominated and finished light heavyweight contender Luiz Cane in the first round. The fight was Nogueira’s first in the UFC after amassing a 17-3 record in promotions such as PRIDE and Affliction.
UFC 113 is scheduled to take place May 8th in Montreal, Canada, and features a main event rematch between Lyoto Machida and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua for the UFC light heavyweight championship. Also on the card is a matchup of top welterweights between Josh Koscheck and Paul Daley, and a rumored matchup of Kimbo Slice against Matt Mitrione.
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Brock Lesnar to Return in Summer to Face Mir/Carwin Winner
UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and UFC President Dana White appeared on ESPN’s Sportscenter this morning for their first public comments since Lesnar had to cancel a scheduled November title defense.
During the seven minute interview, Lesnar described in detail how sick he became and how close his career came to being over. He also ripped into the Canadian health care system (but failed to mention it was American doctors who misdiagnosed him to begin with). The doctors decided against doing a possible career-ending surgery and instead waited to see if Lesnar could begin to heal on his own.
Lesnar began to heal on his own, and a recent trip to the doctor and further testing revealed that no surgery was needed and that he had healed on his own. Dana White called it a “miracle.” During the ordeal, Lesnar dropped 40 pounds, though he added that he’s been able to gain about 30 pounds back so far.
Lesnar emphasized that he still is the UFC heavyweight champion, and White announced plans to have Lesnar take on the winner of the Frank Mir/Shane Carwin interim title fight that is scheduled to take place at UFC 111 in March. No exact date was given, but White said it would be during the summer. White also added that if the winner of Mir or Carwin is unable to face Lesnar, Cain Velasquez or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira could step in to face Lesnar.
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Kimbo Slice vs. Matt Mitrione Likely for UFC 113
According to various reports, Kimbo Slice and Matt Mitrione have agreed to a heavyweight bout that will take place at UFC 113 in Montreal.
Both fighters were contestants on the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Slice lost his first fight to the eventual winner of the show Roy Nelson, while Mitrione won his first fight over Scott Junk before being eliminated in the quarterfinals. Both fighters also fought on the show’s finale, with Slice winning a decision over Houston Alexander and Mitrione upsetting Marcus Jones via TKO.
Mitrione should have a size advantage in the fight, as he normally fights at 255-260 lbs, while Slice will probably come into the fight around 230. This fight should turn into the sloppy slugfest that the UFC hoped the Kimbo/Alexander fight would be. Mitrione should have the advantage, as he has more power and has shown a pretty good chin during his run on The Ultimate Fighter as well as in the fight with Jones.
Slice, for all the hype his street fights have gotten, doesn’t seem to have the power that you would expect. He tagged James Thompson numerous times during their fight in Elite XC and wasn’t able to do serious damage. He was also knocked out by a Seth Petruzelli jab in his last Elite XC appearance. He’ll have to hope he is the more technical and accurate striker, because the pure power advantage goes to Mitrione.
UFC 113 is scheduled to take place in Montreal, Canada on May 1st. The card will feature Lyoto Machida and Mauricio “Shogun” Rua in a rematch of their UFC 104 fight, which ended with Machida winning a razor thin decision victory. Also rumored for the card is a welterweight fight between Paul Daley and Josh Koscheck, which will go a long way to determining a future challenger for welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre. There is some preliminary discussion of putting the grudge match between Rashad Evans and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson on the same card, though I believe it will eventually be moved to UFC 114, scheduled to take place in Las Vegas on May 29th.
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Henderson Set To Take on Shields for Strikeforce Middleweight Title in April
On an appearance on ESPN’s MMA Live program today, former PRIDE and UFC fighter Dan Henderson said that his Strikeforce debut would come in April and that he would take on current Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields.
Henderson officially signed with Strikeforce on December 5th, 2009, after lengthy negotiations with the UFC fell through.
Shields claimed the vacant Strikeforce middleweight title by beating “Mayhem” Miller at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers in November. The Brazlilian Jiu Jitsu blackbelt is 24-4-1 in his career, though much of his career has been spent at welterweight.
Henderson is a former welterweight and middleweight champion for Pride, and also fought for the light heavyweight and middleweight titles in the UFC, though he lost the title challenges to Anderson Silva and Quinton “Rampage” Jackson. Henderson is 27-7 in his MMA career, with wins over Gilbert Yvel, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, Babalu Sobral, Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva and Rich Franklin. He should hold a significant size advantage over Shields in the title bout.
The next Strikeforce on CBS event is expected to take place on April 17th, though a location has not been announced. In addition to the Shields/Henderson fight, the card is expected to feature Fedor Emelianenko vs. Fabricio Werdum in the main event.
Here’s this week’s edition of MMA Live:
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