UFC 136 and Frankie Edgar: Why I Love MMA
Even though UFC 136 didn’t have a UFC “superstar” fighting on the card, I was looking forward to the event as much as I had any event this year. The Pay-Per-View card looked to be filled with solid matchups, and the main event featured the third fight between Gray Maynard and Frankie Edgar. The first fight between the two was a solid fight, but as the main event of UFC 125, the second fight turned into an all-time classic. The only question that remained was whether or not the third fight could possibly live up to the excitement and drama of the previous battle.
I was out with friends the night of the event, watching the fights at a bar in downtown Chicago. The majority of the people there were focused on the TVs that had college football on, and weren’t paying much attention to the UFC. Their reaction as the night went on was interesting.
The main card opened with lightweight contender Melvin Guillard taking on Joe Lauzon. Lauzon had historically had trouble in his career when dealing with upper echelon compeititon, and as a guy who was only 2-3 wins away from a title shot, Guillard certainly qualified as one of those types of fighters. Since joining Greg Jackson’s gym, Guillard had fought with a much more patient style, but in the opening moments of his fight with Lauzon, it appeared that Guillard had thrown that out the window. He came in looking for the knockout and Lauzon stunned him with a left hook. Guillard could never fully recover, and was submitted under a minute into the opening round.
People love knockouts. Some of the people there watching college football turned around to watch the replay of the knockdown and submission. A few “ooohs” and “aaahhhs” were audible, but the crowd quickly turned back to their preferred game.
Next up was a rematch between Leonard Garcia and Nam Phan. Garcia had lost the first fight in the eyes of many, but somehow won the decision. UFC President Dana White disagreed with the decision, and made the decision to book the rematch for this event. The fight was very reminiscent of their first fight as Garcia swung wildly and Phan placed the more precise shots.
The bar had the audio on from the fights, so as the commentating crew of Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg were loudly praising both fighters, more and more heads turned to the fights and away from the football games. By the third round, most of the patrons were focused on Garcia’s comeback attempts that would eventually fall short as Phan rightfully won the decision.
Chael Sonnen took on Brian Stann in the next fight. Most of the crowd had returned to their normal viewing by the time this fight got going, and though Sonnen won in dominant fashion, the crowd wasn’t motivated enough to change what they were paying attention to on TV. It wasn’t until Sonnen called out UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva in the audience at the arena that the people I was surrounded by turned their attention back to the UFC.
Sadly, the Kenny Florian/Jose Aldo co-main event basically lost whatever new viewers the UFC had gotten at the bar through the first three fights. Florian was competitive in the first round, but never really proved to be a threat to Aldo’s featherweight title.
Finally, it was time for the main event. It appeared that most of the people in the bar had not seen the second matchup between Edgar and Maynard, as there wasn’t a whole lot of buzz in the place as the fight got under way. As Edgar was getting pounded again in the first round, more and more people started paying attention to the fight. I could hear conversations about “How is he still standing?” and “Why isn’t the ref stopping this?” The first round played out similarly to the first round in their second matchup with Edgar taking a beating but not staying down.
As Edgar got back into the fight in the second and third rounds, the people in the place became transfixed with the fight. Much like the second fight, Edgar came back strong in the next few rounds, showing few ill effects from the beating he had taken just a few minutes prior. The attitude in the place seemed to be “I don’t know who these two guys are, but damn that little guy is tough.”
When Edgar connected and dropped Maynard in the fourth round with a right hand and quickly finished him off, the place erupted. I’d guess less than 25% of the people in the place knew who it was that had won the fight, but the way he did it after coming back from such adversity early on in the fight instantly earned Edgar the respect of everyone in the place.
Who knows, maybe seeing the fights and the way Edgar came back from the brink of defeat to retain his title earned him and the sport a few new fans in bars much like I was in across the country. Or, maybe these people will never watch another fight again and forgot about what they had seen 15 minutes after it happened. Judging by the rumored Pay-Per-View buyrates for the card, not many people witnessed Edgar’s courageous comeback. But I did, and fights like that and fighters like Frankie Edgar are the reason that I love MMA.
Popularity: 5% [?]
UFC 136: Edgar vs. Maynard III Preview and Predictions
Saturday night’s UFC 136 is one of the more anticipated cards of the year, not only because of the title fight rematch between Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, but because the entire Pay-Per-View card is stacked. Jose Aldo will defend his featherweight title against Kenny Florian, Brian Stann and Chael Sonnen will fight for a possible middleweight title shot, Melvin Guillard tries to continue his quest to a lightweight title shot by taking on Joe Lauzon, and Nam Phan will try to avenge an awful decision in his last fight against Leonard Garcia by beating him decisively in the rematch.
Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia: Garcia has made a habit of getting decisions he likely doesn’t deserve. His aggressive, swing for the fences style seems to sway the judges, even if the majority of his punches hit nothing but air. One of those decisions that Garcia didn’t earn came at The Ultimate Fighter 12 finale at the expense of Nam Phan. UFC President Dana White was so emphatic about the fact that Phan got robbed that he awarded him his full win bonus. Phan dropped his next fight to Mike Brown via unanimous decision, and now gets his chance at a rematch with Garcia. Garcia last fought at UFC Fight Night 24, losing to Chan Sung Jung in a rematch of another close fight that he won via decision. I see this fight going pretty similar to the first fight. Phan is the better striker, and Garcia has shown no willingness to do anything besides stand and throw punches at the air. Phan should win the decision, but will the judges actually recognize it this time? Phan via decision.
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon: Guillard has been on quite a roll, winning his past five fights. The streak has placed him in contention for the lightweight title, but he’s likely a couple more wins away from getting his shot. Overall, Guillard is 29-8-3 in his career. He seems to be much more focused since joining Greg Jackson’s camp. Lauzon is 20-6 in his MMA career, including a 7-3 mark in the UFC. He’s struggled when facing good competition, and he’s got very good competition in this fight. Lauzon has solid striking, but he’ll be at a disadvantage if this fight stays standing. Guillard is extremely quick and powerful with underrated wrestling. If Lauzon doesn’t get this fight to the ground quick, it probably won’t last long. Guillard via TKO in the 2nd.
Brian Stann vs. Chael Sonnen: Sonnen is coming off of a long layoff after being suspended for testing positive for elevated levels of testosterone after his submission loss to Anderson Silva at UFC 117. During this time, he was also charged with money laundering for his part in a mortgage fraud scam. He received two years probation for the charge. Sonnen can now focus on getting another title shot against Silva. To get that chance, he’ll have to defeat Stann. Stann has won his last three fights, defeating Mike Massenzio, Chris Leben and Jorge Santiago in that stretch. His work with Greg Jackson has rounded out his game quite a bit, but he’s still most comfortable on his feet. He’s got pretty good power for the middleweight division, and though he’s improved his defensive wrestling, that remains a weakness for him. That’s not a weakness you want to have when you’re set to go up against a very accomplished amateur wrestler. Stann was dominated by Phil Davis at UFC 109, and I think we’ll see a similar result here. It’s difficult to assess how the layoff will affect Sonnen here, but I think regardless of timing or conditioning issues, his wrestling is still too much for Stann. Sonnen via unanimous decision.
Jose Aldo vs. Kenny Florian: Aldo will be making his second defense of the UFC Featherweight championship. Prior to the merging of the UFC and WEC, Aldo had defended his WEC feathweight title twice with victories of Manvel Gamburyan and Urijah Faber. He’ll be facing a veteran of title fights in Kenny Florian. Florian will be hoping for a better result than he’s had in his two previous title fights, as he lost to Sean Sherk and B.J. Penn in those contests. A loss to Gray Maynard in a number one contender’s fight at lightweight convinced Florian that to win a UFC title, he was going to have to drop down to featherweight. In his featherweight debut at UFC 131, Florian defeated Diego Nunes via unanimous decision. Aldo is one of the most exciting fighters in the world, combining a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu with solid striking and incredible speed. It’s that last attribute that I believe will be the downfall for Florian. He may be the bigger fighter on Saturday, but his wrestling isn’t that great. This fight will likely stay on the feet, and Aldo’s speed advantage will be apparent. I just don’t think Florian can hang with the younger, faster, more talented champion. Aldo via TKO in the 3rd.
Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard: This will be the third fight between these two, and the 2nd with a title on the line. They first fought at UFC Fight Night 13 where Maynard won a unanimous decision. They fought again at UFC 125 with Edgar’s lightweight title at stake. Maynard dropped and nearly finished Edgar numerous times in the first round, only to see the champion come back and take enough rounds to earn a draw and retain the title. According to Dana White, no matter the outcome of this fight, they will not fight again. Maynard is still undefeated at 10-0-2 in his career, while Maynard is the only blemish on Edgar’s 13-1-1 record.
Maynard is the bigger fighter of the two, and held a pretty significant wrestling advantage in the first matchup between the two, which is the reason he won the decision. In the second fight, the wrestling was much more even, and Edgar seemed to edge Maynard on the feet after the opening round. I’m intrgued by this fight to see what strategy the Maynard camp uses. Will he go back to his wrestling to try and grind out a decsion win? Edgar showed in rounds 2-5 that he can win the striking exchanges. Or does the Maynard camp believe that he just blew himself out with the early onslaught and encourage Maynard to stand with him but be slightly more patient if he hurts Edgar again? I like Edgar in this fight. I think his speed and boxing will win him the majority of the exchanges, and I don’t expect him to get hurt like he did in the last fight. I still think Maynard has the wrestling advantage, but it’s close. I expect this to be another exciting and memorable fight, with Edgar getting the victory. Edgar via decision.
Popularity: 4% [?]
UFC 135: Jones vs. Rampage Preview and Predictions
The main event of UFC 135, light heavyweight champion Jon Jones against former champion Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, has turned into one of the more anticipated fights of the year in the past few weeks. Numerous interviews and press conferences have seemed to intensify the bad blood between the two, with Rampage accusing the Jones camp of spying on his training and Jones coming off increasingly cocky. It’s a good thing the main event is drawing some buzz, because the undercard on this Pay-Per-View leaves a lot to be desired. For that reason, I’ll hit the highlights of the undercard while concentrating mainly on the main event.
Ben Rothwell vs. Mark Hunt: Example number one that this undercard is week comes in the form of these two heavyweights. Hunt is only back in the UFC because they owed him fights on his contract after acquiring it from PRIDE. Hunt made his UFC debut after losing five straight fights, and losing to Sean McCorkle at UFC 119 made it six straight. Hunt landed a knockout blow on Chris Tuchscherer at UFC 127 to bring the streak to an end. Even though his record isn’t pretty and he has no business in the UFC, he is an entertaining fighter, and that earned him a spot on the main card. Rothwell is 1-1 in the UFC after a long career in the IFL and other smaller organizations. He last fought at UFC 115, earning a unanimous decision over Gilbert Yvel. Simply put, if Rothwell decides to get into a slugfest with Hunt, he’s an idiot and will likely lose. However, Rothwell has the advantage in every other aspect of the fight, so if he fights with his brain, he’ll get a relatively easy win. Rothwell via unanimous decision.
Nate Diaz vs. Takanori Gomi: A decent lightweight scrap here, as the younger Diaz takes on a fighter his brother beat (well, at least until it was overturned) in Takanori Gomi. Diaz needs a win here after suffering back-to-back losses at the hands of Dong Hyun Kim and Rory MacDonald. After an incredibly successful career in PRIDE, Gomi is 1-2 in the UFC, with a win over Tyson Griffin and losses to Kenny Florian and Clay Guida. Much like his brother, Diaz has a very slick ground game, but prefers to stand and box. Unfortunately for him, his striking is nowhere near as good as his brother’s. His wrestling is pretty weak, but if he can get Gomi down, he’ll likely be able to submit him. Gomi would like to keep this fight standing and punish Diaz on his feet. Diaz is a tough fighter, and my gut tells me that he’ll survive some tense moments early to eventually come back and submit Gomi. Diaz via submission in the 2nd.
Travis Browne vs. Rob Broughton: The second heavyweight fight on the main card features Travis Browne against Rob Broughton. Browne is thought of as a decent prospect by many, and is 2-0-1 in his UFC career. His last fight was an impressive knockout victory over Stefan Struve at UFC 130. Broughton will be fighting for the 2nd time in his UFC career, as he beat Vinicius Queiroz via submission at UFC 120 in his debut. I’m not as high on Browne as many are, but this one should be a relatively easy win for him. He’s the bigger fighter of the two and will have the striking advantage. I expect him to beat Broughton soundly. Browne via TKO in the 1st.
Josh Koscheck vs. Matt Hughes: Originally slated to face Diego Sanchez, Hughes accepted the fight with Koscheck after Sanchez went down with an injury a few weeks ago. After a long layoff due to injuries suffered in his loss to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 124, Koscheck will be stepping in on extremely short notice here. Hughes is fighting on the last fight on his contract, and there are strong indications that this will be his last UFC fight, win or lose. The former champion would like to go out on a winning note if that is the case, but it’ll be an extremely difficult task. Hughes is 45-8 in his MMA career, and is 18-6 in his UFC career. The former welterweight champion last fought at UFC 123, and was knocked out by B.J. Penn in the first round. Koscheck is 15-5 in his MMA career, and 13-5 in his UFC career. At this point in their careers, Koscheck simply does everything better than Hughes. The one intangible is the short window that Koscheck had to prepare for this fight. He never lets himself get out of shape, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he is in fighting shape. Still, all signs point to Koscheck winning this fight, and Hughes going out as one of the greatest champions in UFC history. Koscheck via TKO in the 2nd.
Jon Jones vs. Quinton “Rampage” Jackson: Jones has looked nearly unstoppable in his UFC career, rolling through Andre Gusmao, Stephan Bonnar, Jake O’Brien, Brandon Vera, Vladimir Matyushenko, Ryan Bader and “Shogun” Rua en route to the light heavyweight title. The only blemish on his record is a DQ loss to Matt Hamill, which should have been ruled a victory. He utilizes his long reach very well with unorthodox striking to go along with an impressive wrestling base. He really hasn’t been tested yet in his career. Is Jackson the man to do it? Jackson is one of the strongest light heavweights in the world. He’s 32-8 in his career, and is 7-2 in his UFC career. After a decision loss to Rashad Evans at UFC 114, Jackson has come back to defeat Lyoto Machida and Matt Hamill via decision in his last two fights.
Jones is the overwhelming favorite in this fight, and for good reason. As mentioned earlier, he hasn’t really been tested yet in his career, and has yet to show a glaring weakness. Jackson meanwhile, has become a much more predictable fighter in recent years. He has basically vacated his wrestling and virtually only relies on his boxing during fights. To be effective against Jones, he’ll have to get inside of Jones’ huge reach and be prepared to stop takedowns from Jones while doing so. It will be a tough assignment for Jackson. He has shown before that he is either unwilling or unable to stop leg kicks, and I’m guessing that it is something that the Jones’ camp and his coach Greg Jackson have been working on. They also believe that Rampage won’t be able to do anything off his back, so I’m expecting Jones to want to put him there early and often. I don’t think they want to get into a firefight with Rampage, as he’s shown before that he can walk through a few punches to land a knockout blow of his own. I’m giving Jackson a better chance than the odds indicate he should have. By all accounts (not just his own or his camp’s), Jackson is in the best shape he’s been in the past few years. He seems focused and ready for this fight. He’s definitely got the power to put Jones in some bad positions, but Jones just has more weapons at his disposal. Jones via TKO in the 3rd.
Popularity: 5% [?]
UFC Fight Night 25 Preview and Predictions
This is definitely not the sexiest UFC Fight Night card on paper, and the event will likely be overshadowed by the Mayweather/Ortiz fight as well as some good college football action, but there is at least one fight that is relevant to divisional rankings and possible future title fights.
Alan Belcher vs. Jason MacDonald: After winning four out of five fights including two straight over Wilson Gouveia and Patrick Cote, Belcher was scheduled to face Demian Maia last September in one of the most important fights of his career. However, Belcher began having vision problems during a trip to Brazil and ended up with a detached retina. After two subsequent surgeries, Belcher will return to the Octagon to face MacDonald. MacDonald was released from the UFC following a loss to Nate Quarry at UFC 97. After a few wins in smaller shows, MacDonald returned to the UFC at UFC 113, where he broke his leg attempting a takedown against John Salter. Salter was awarded the victory. MacDonald returned to action at UFC 129, submitting Ryan Jensen with a triangle. It’s hard to determine how the long layoff will affect Belcher. However, he has a huge striking advantage in this fight, and is decent enough on the ground to keep himself out of too much trouble there. If he keeps this fight standing, he should be able to pick MacDonald apart. Belcher via TKO in the 2nd.
Jonathan Brookins vs. Erik Koch: Brookins won the 12th season of The Ultimate Fighter by defeating Michael Johnson, and this will be his first fight since that victory. During the show, he displayed good wrestling, but had some major holes in his striking game. He’s 12-3 overall in his career, with one of those losses coming to UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo in a WEC fight. Koch is 12-1 in his career, with the only loss coming at the hands of Chad Mendes. Brookins is the better wrestler in this matchup, but his wrestling isn’t that good to dominate Koch for three rounds. However, Koch’s standup is good enough to control the majority of the fight. Look for Brookins to score a few takedowns before eventually getting pummeled. Koch via TKO in the 2nd.
Court McGee vs. Dongi Yang: I don’t care if this is a fight night card or not, this is not a UFC caliber co-main event. McGee was the winner of the 11th season of The Ultimate Fighter, and won his first fight post-show over Ryan Jensen at UFC 121. The South Korean born Yang was viewed as a solid prospect upon entering the UFC, but a loss to Chris Camozzi at UFC 121 took away much of his buzz. He returned to face Rob Kimmons at UFC on Versus 3, where Yang won via 2nd round TKO. He has the power to give McGee problems in this contest. McGee comes from a wrestling background, but his standup and overall game have been shown to need a lot of work. Hard fight to call, but I think McGee survives a few tense moments early on and grinds out a decision. McGee via unanimous decision.
Jake Shields vs. Jake Ellenberger: After a brilliant run in Strikeforce and opening his UFC career with a close victory over Martin Kampmann, Shields earned a title shot against Georges St. Pierre at UFC 129. The scores looked closer than the fight really was, as GSP cruised to a unanimous decision victory. For Shields to earn another shot at the title, he’ll have to get past a very tough fighter in Ellenberger. Ellenberger has gone 4-1 since entering the UFC, with the only loss coming at the hands of Carlos Condit via split-decision. He comes from a wrestling background, but doesn’t always fight that way, often trusting his hands a bit too much. He does have some power in his hands, but also has shown a weakness in defensive wrestling, something that Shields can look to exploit. Shields striking game is still average at best, and he shouldn’t threaten Ellenberger there. This fight will likely come down to how Ellenberger can stop Shields’ takedowns and avoid dangerous positions on the ground. One other aspect of this fight is the mental state of Shields. His father (who was also his manager) passed away at the end of August. Shields chose to stay in this fight, but if his mind is elsewhere, Ellenberger is good enough to end Shields’ night quickly. I think Shields will come in focused and prepared, and will do enough to earn a close victory. Shields via unanimous decision.
Popularity: 4% [?]
UFC 134: Silva vs. Okami Preview and Predictions
UFC 134 marks the UFC’s first trip to Brazil since 1998. Anderson Silva, “Shogun” Rua and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, three of the country’s top MMA stars, will fight on the pay-per-view portion of the card, which is one of the better cards of the year on paper. In the main event, Silva defends his middleweight title against Yushin Okami in a rematch of their 2006 encounter that ended with a DQ victory for Okami, while the co-main event features a rematch between Forrest Griffin and Rua. The first fight between them in 2007 ended with a shocking Griffin victory. Finally, Nogueira will take on Brendan Schaub in a fight that could have future title implications in the heavyweight division.
Luis Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov: Cane rebounded from back-to-back losses to Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Cyrille Diabate to defeat Eliot Marshall via TKO at UFC 128. The Brazilian striker is 11-3 in his MMA career, and holds a 4-3 record in the UFC. Nedkov is making his UFC debut after an 11-0 start to his MMA career. He’s actually been under contract with the UFC for awhile, but injuries both to him and his potential opponents have prevented Nedkov from making his debut until Saturday. He brings some strong grappling credentials to the cage, and certainly has the ability to frustrate Cane for three rounds en route to a decision victory. However, his striking is pretty awful at this point in his career. If Cane can avoid the takedowns and keep this fight standing, he’ll cruise to a victory. However, with Nedkov’s skills, that’s a big if. I think Cane can keep the fight standing long enough to expose the numerous holes in Nedkov’s standup game, and will light him up in a victory. Cane via TKO in the 2nd.
Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza: Since winning the 9th season of The Ultimate Fighter, Pearson has gone 3-1 in the UFC. His lone loss was a submission loss to Cole Miller at UFC Fight Night 22. The Brit is a pretty well-rounded fighter who has proven to be UFC material in his short career thus far. Barboza is relatively unkown to a lot of fans, but he currently holds a 2-0 mark in his UFC career. Barboza defeated Mike Lullo in his UFC debut at UFC 123, and followed that up with a unanimous decision win over Anthony Njokuani at UFC 128 that earned him “Fight of the Night” honors. Barboza is an explosive striker with strong leg kicks that he showed in stopping Lullo in his debut. His ground game is also very good as he combines good takedown defense with developing Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. Quite simply, I think he’s better than Pearson in all areas of this fight. Look for an impressive performance by Barboza that will open some eyes. Barboza via TKO in the 1st.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brendan Schaub: Nogueira returns to his native Brazil trying to get his career back on track. After being knocked out by current UFC heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez in his last fight at UFC 110, Nogueira underwent knee and hip surgeries that have kept him out of action for 17 months. He talked for months about how he was rushing to get back to fight in Brazil, and hinted that he may not be 100% yet for this fight. His appearance at the weigh ins yesterday showed that may indeed be the case, as he looked noticably heavy. Nogueira is one of the best heavyweights of all-time, holding victories over Mark Coleman, Heath Herring (three times), Dan Henderson, Mirko Cro Cop, Sergei Kharitonov, Fabricio Werdum, Josh Barnett, Tim Sylvia and Randy Couture during his illustrious career. Overall, Nogueira holds a 32-6 record. His opponent has only nine fights in his professional career, but is the favorite in this fight. That should tell you what the betting public thinks of Nogueira’s chances. It should also tell you what they think of Schaub’s potential. A former professional football player, the 28-year old Schaub got into MMA late but has made up for it by learning very quickly. Schaub was a cast member on the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter, and made it to the show’s finale against the much more seasoned Roy Nelson. Schaub lost that fight via knockout, but earned a UFC contract anyway. He’s made the most of the opportunity so far, going 4-0 since the loss to Nelson. His most recent fight was a spectacular knockout victory over Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 128. Even if Nogueira is on the downside of his career, this will be Schaub’s toughest test to date. Schaub has incredibly quick hands for a heavyweight, and seven of his eight wins have come via the knockout. He talks about his passion for Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and while it’s safe to assume his ground game has improved since entering the UFC, it’s also no match for Nogueira’s ground skills. I’m sure Schaub will do everything in his power to keep this fight standing. At this point in their careers, Schaub will have the advantage there. Schaub via TKO in the 2nd.
Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Forrest Griffin: After getting beaten badly while dropping the light heavyweight title to Jon Jones at UFC 128, Rua will look to avenge one of his other UFC losses as he takes on Forrest Griffin. Griffin came into their fight at UFC 76 as a heavy underdog. Rua had come off of a dominant run in PRIDE, where he became known as the best light heavyweight on the planet. Rua’s list of victims in PRIDE was impressive. Rogerio Nogueira, Rampage Jackson, Ricardo Arona, and Alistair Overeem (twice) were some of the fighters that Rua ran though in his PRIDE run. However, he came into the fight against Griffin injured, and clearly out-of-shape. Griffin, to his credit, took advantage, and finally submitted Rua in the closing seconds of the third round. After looking nearly done in a less-than-impressive victory over Mark Coleman at UFC 93, Rua came back to knockout a fading Chuck Liddell at UFC 97. The win earned Shogun a title shot against Lyoto Machida at UFC 104, a fight in which he lost a very close and controversial decision. He earned the title in definitive fashion in the rematch, knocking out Machida in the first round at UFC 113. After beating Rua, Griffin earned a coaching spot opposite “Rampage” Jackson on the seventh season of The Ultimate Fighter, and also a title shot against Jackson. He made the most of his opportunity, winning the title from Jackson in a unanimous decision victory at UFC 86. Griffin’s reigh was short-lived however, as he dropped the title to Rashad Evans in his next fight at UFC 92. He lost in short-order to Anderson Silva at UFC 101, but has won his past two fights over Tito Ortiz and Rich Franklin.
There were whispers thoughout the past few weeks that Rua had injured his knee again. Those rumors were shot down by Rua’s trainers, but one can question how healthy Rua truly is. He’s a guy who has had trouble staying healthy throughout his career, so it wouldn’t be shocking for Rua to be trying to battle through another injury. There are also questions about Griffin, as some wonder if his heart is truly still in fighting. This is a tough one to call. A completely healthy Rua in his prime would likely defeat Griffin, but I don’t think Rua is either of those things right now. If nothing else, Griffin has proven that his conditioning can help him grind out fights, and we may see another case of that here. Can Rua win this fight if he doesn’t finish Griffin in the first? I don’t really think he can. Griffin via unanimous decision.
Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami: This fight is a rematch of their encounter in early 2006, a fight in which Okami won via a Silva DQ for an illegal upkick. Since that fight, both fighters have moved on to the UFC with different degrees of success. Silva has gone on a legendary run, winning 13 straight fights and has defended his UFC middleweight championship a record eight times. He’s beaten (among others) Rich Franklin (twice), Chris Leben, Dan Henderson, Nate Marquardt, Forrest Griffin (at light heavyweight), Demian Maia, Chael Sonnen and most recently, Vitor Belfort at UFC 126. Not only has he won those fights, but only Sonnen has really tested him in his UFC career, and Silva was nursing a bad rib injury going into that fight. Meanwhile, Okami has quietly gone 10-2 in his UFC career, only dropping fights to Franklin and Sonnen. However, he is often criticized for cautious and not overly exciting fights. He’s only finished four out of his 10 UFC opponents, and one can argue that he really hasn’t looked great since a TKO victory over Lucio Linhares in 2010.
It’s hard for me to make a case for Okami here, so I’m not going to try and force it. He’s at a severe disadvantage in most aspects of this fight. His striking is nowhere near the level of Silva’s, his wrestling is good but not great by any means, and even if he can score a takedown or two on Silva, his ground game isn’t really good enough to finish the fight. I expect Silva to just pick Okami apart as soon as he feels like it. Okami will shoot in for takedowns, but Silva’s sprawl should keep him off the ground and will leave Okami in range for Silva’s vast array of strikes. Silva will defend his title again and will leave the UFC trying to find another matchup in the middleweight division that can at least be competitive. Silva via TKO in the 3rd.
Popularity: 4% [?]
UFC and Fox Agree to Multi-Year TV Deal
UFC president Dana White often promises “huge announcements” that don’t always deliver. This time however, the announcement was monumental. Fox has agreed to terms with the UFC on a seven-year televison deal, putting the world’s number one MMA promotion on a network known for broadcasting big events.
The deal is said to be at a minimum of $90 million per year, though Fox has hinted that the figure is actually higher.
The deal includes four “major” shows per year on Fox, with six additional live shows on FX. Additionally, The Ultimate Fighter will feature live fights on Friday nights, instead of the traditional tape delayed fights the program normally shows. Other programming such as the UFC Unleashed series as well as UFC Countdown shows will also air on FX as well as Fuel TV.
The first event of the partnership will take place on November 12th. While future shows will feature a full 4-5 televised fights, this show will only last one hour and will feature two televised fights. A full undercard will take place and likely will be streamed on Facebook. No main event has been announced for this card.
A large amount of promotion for the following week’s UFC 139, which features Cain Velasquez defending his heavyweight championship against Junior Dos Santos, will likely take place.
The first UFC on Fox event will take place on the same night as Manny Pacquiao vs. Juan Manuel Marquez, but the two shows will not go head-to-head. The UFC has stated that they will be off the air before the boxing main event begins.
The landmark deal will also enable the UFC to maintain most of the control on their programming, something that has always been a sticking point in negotiations with networks. White believes that this will give the company an opportunity to freshen up all aspects of the broadcast.
I look at this Fox deal as a fresh start for us, so I want to change everything. I want to change the look of the pay-per-view, graphics, show openings on our Fight Nights.
White stated that this deal is what he and the UFC have always wanted, a chance to be on a network with other big events and a mainstream appeal:
This was what I always wanted. This is what I always felt was the pinnacle for us here in the United States, to get a deal with Fox. Not just to be on the No. 1 network in the country but to be on a network with all the other real big sports.
It may have taken a while to get there, but White and Zuffa have finally reached that pinnacle.
Popularity: 3% [?]
UFC 133: Evans vs. Ortiz Preview and Predictions
UFC 133 was one of the hardest hit cards in UFC history in terms of injuries and fights being cancelled, but still has managed to put together an intriguing main event between two former light heavyweight champions as Tito Ortiz takes on Rashad Evans in the main event. The undercard lacks star power, but should deliver exciting fights.
Rory MacDonald vs. Mike Pyle: Veteran vs. youngster in this contest, as the fast-rising MacDonald takes on the MMA veteran Pyle. MacDonald entered the UFC with a splash, pushing Carlos Condit to the limit in only his second UFC fight. Though he ended up losing the contest in the closing seconds, he proved that he belonged in the UFC by getting the better of Condit through most of the fight. In his first fight after the loss to Condit, MacDonald steamrolled through Nate Diaz en route to a unanimous decision victory. The win improved his MMA record to 11-1. Pyle is much more experienced than MacDonald, and has racked up a 21-7 record in his career. After opening his UFC career 1-2, Pyle has run off three straight wins over Jesse Lennox, John Hathaway and Ricardo Almeida in his last three fights. This is a pretty even fight on paper. MacDonald should have the advantage striking, while Pyle probably has the better wrestling. I think overall though, MacDonald is the better fighter. I think his striking will be able to control the fight, while his wrestling and grappling are good enough to keep him out of bad situations. MacDonald via unanimous decision.
Jorge Rivera vs. Constantinos Philippou: The UFC veteran Rivera will take on Philippou, who will be fighting for the 2nd time in the UFC. Rivera is coming off a TKO loss to Michael Bisping at UFC 127. The loss snapped Rivera’s three fight win streak and dropped his overall record to 19-8. Rivera is 7-6 in the UFC. Philippou lost his promotional debut to Nick Catone at UFC 128, and is taking this fight on short notice as he is replacing the injured Alessio Sakara. This is a tough fight to call. Rivera has the heavier hands, while Philippou probably has the more well-rounded skill set. I think Rivera’s age may catch up to him, so I’m going with the younger Philippou. Philippou via TKO in the 2nd.
Dennis Hallman vs. Brian Ebersole: Two MMA veterans with over 100 professional fights between them collide in this contest, as the 47-14 Ebersole takes on the 50-13 Hallman. Ebersole made the most of his promotional debut at UFC 127. Not only did he beat Chris Lytle via unanimous decision, he also sported a pretty unique chest hair design. Hallman holds a 3-4 UFC record, and is best known for beating former UFC welterweight champion Matt Hughes on two separate occasions. Hallman has won his past two fights, beating Ben Saunders at UFC 117, and then beating Karo Parisyan at UFC 123. Both fighters have been in this game a long time, and neither is known for their striking acumen. Ebersole is the better wrestler, while Hallman is the better grappler of the two. If it goes the distance, it likely goes to Ebersole due to his superior wrestling and control. However, I’ll bank on a Hallman submission to end this one. Hallman via submission in the 2nd.
Vitor Belfort vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama: Belfort is trying to rebound from a KO loss to Anderson Silva in the main event of UFC 126, while Akiyama has dropped his last two fights. Belfort was caught with a front kick from Silva in the first round of their title fight at UFC 126. Prior to that, Belfort hadn’t shown much offense at all and was fighting very passively. Akiyama has really struggled in his UFC career. He edged Alan Belcher in a split-decision at UFC 100, then dropped consecutive fights to Chris Leben and Michael Bisping. It’s very tough for me to see a way where Akiyama wins this fight unless Belfort is completely disinterested. Even if he is, he has enough skill to get by Akiyama. His hands are better, his submissions are dangerous, and Akiyama isn’t big enough to hang with most UFC middleweights. Belfort via TKO in the 2nd.
Tito Ortiz vs. Rashad Evans: Evans was originally slated to take on Phil Davis in the main event before Davis had to pull out with a knee injury. After originally declining to take the fight on short notice, Ortiz eventually agreed to take on Evans in the rematch from their UFC 73 draw. Ortiz is trying to capitalize on the momentum from beating the heavily favored Ryan Bader at UFC 132. In that fight, Ortiz connected with a right hand that sent Bader down where Ortiz finished him with a guillotine. The win was the first for Ortiz in nearly five years, and likely saved his job in the UFC. Evans has been on an extended layoff, as he hasn’t fought since beating “Rampage” Jackson at UFC 114. Evans earned a title shot with that victory, and turned down subsequent fights to compete while “Shogun” Rua healed a knee injury. After the two had agreed to fight, Evans came up injured and was replaced by Jon Jones in the title fight at UFC 128. Jones won the title over Rua that night, but an injury from Jones ended plans of a Jones/Evans title fight on this card. As a result of all the changes, Evans hasn’t fought since May of 2010. Ring (cage) rust could be an issue for Evans, while Ortiz may feel the effects of basically having back-to-back training camps. Evans is the better striker and wrestler at this point of their careers, and is a heavy favorite in this matchup. Ortiz is still a pretty banged up fighter after years of injuries, and at 36, fighting a tough opponent so soon after his last fight may take it’s toll on the former champion. A Tito win would continue one of the greatest comeback stories in MMA history, but it’s not likely to happen. Evans is the far better striker, and the better wrestler as well at this stage of their careers. While he may have issues finishing the very tough Ortiz, he shouldn’t have an issue dominating him to a decision victory. Evans via unanimous decision.
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