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UFC 121: Lesnar vs. Velasquez Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 22 Oct 2010 04:22:16 +0000

This Saturday night’s UFC 121 boasts one of the biggest fight cards of the year. The main event features a battle for the heavyweight title between Brock Lesnar and Cain Velasquez. In the co-main event, top welterweight contender Jake Shields will make his UFC debut against Martin Kampmann. And finally, former UFC light heavyweight champion Tito Ortiz will square off against Matt Hamill.

Brendan Schaub vs. Gabriel Gonzaga: Schaub is a truly gifted athlete who showed great promise on the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Since losing to Roy Nelson in the season’s finale, Schaub defeated both Chase Gormley and Chris Tuchscherer in a combined total of one minute and 54 seconds. He features quick and powerful hands with decent technique. His ground game looked decent on this show, but we haven’t really seen it showcased in any of his post-show fights thus far. Gonzaga is an absolutely maddening fighter to analyze. He’s got a ton of talent, but can never seem to put it together for more than a fight or two. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and also possesses solid power in both his hands and his kicks. After beginning his UFC career with four straight wins, including a highlight-reel KO of Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 70, Gonzaga earned a title shot against Randy Couture. Couture beat Gonzaga up for the first two rounds before finally finishing him in the 3rd. Gonzaga then lost to Fabricio Werdum via TKO at UFC 80. After winning two consecutive fights, Gonzaga faced off against rising prospect Shane Carwin at UFC 96. Gonzaga hurt Carwin early, but ended up getting caught with a devastating right hand by Carwin and knocked out just over a minute into the fight. Gonzaga has split his last two fights, getting a win over Tuchscherer and then losing to Junior Dos Santos in the first round of their fight at UFC Live: Vera vs. Jones. Gonzaga certainly has the talent to get the better of Schaub, but can he put it together? I’m not so sure he can. Gonzaga generally tends to forego his ground skills to engage in strking battles with guys he can’t beat in a kickboxing match. I think that trend continues here. Schaub has the skills to give Gonzaga fits if this fight stays standing. Schaub via TKO in the 1st.

Tito Ortiz vs. Matt Hamill: Ortiz has really struggled in the past three and a half years, going 0-3-1 in that stretch while battling a contract dispute and numerous injuries. He proclaimed himself healthy for the first time in years prior to his UFC 106 fight with Forrest Griffin. However, after losing a split-decision to Griffin, Ortiz went on to mention a litany of injuries that he was suffering from going into that fight. Now, he’s proclaiming yet again that he is finally healthy, but what will his excuse be if he loses to Hamill? Ortiz was once on of the best light heavyweights on the planet, but injuries, combined with the fact that his game hasn’t evolved with the times, have contributed to his rapid decline. At 35 years old, time is running out for Ortiz to reclaim a spot amongst the division’s top-10, let alone get himself into title contention. Throughout his UFC career, Hamill has established himself as a solid middle-tier light heavyweight. After dropping a fight to close friend Rich Franklin at UFC 88, Hamill has “won” four fights in a row. However, he was getting completely dominated by Jon Jones before Jones was questionably disqualified for illegal elbows. However, Hamill also has wins over Keith Jardine and Mark Munoz in that stretch. Hamill’s game is generally predicated on his wrestling and brute strength, but he has become a better striker over the years. It’s not very pretty, but it has been at least somewhat effective for Hamill. Both of these guys are similar fighters. Both are wrestlers first and foremost, and neither has really strengthened their striking enough to make it a real weapon. I think this fight will come down to conditioning, and I just question Ortiz’s health after all the injuries and layoffs. I think a close fight will turn to Hamill’s favor by the third round. Hamill via unanimous decision.

Paulo Thiago vs. Diego Sanchez: Both fighters are coming off disappointing performances in their last contests. Thiago dropped a unanimous decision to Martin Kampmann at UFC 115, while Sanchez lost a unanimous decision to John Hathaway at UFC 114. Before the loss to Kampmann, Thiao looked like he could be a threat in the UFC’s welterweight division. He knocked out Josh Koscheck in his UFC debut, and turned in a solid performance in a loss to Jon Fitch at UFC 100. Thiago then put together consecutive wins over Jacob Volkmann and Mike Swick to get into the title picture. The loss to Kampmann knocked him back towards the pack, but he remains a very dangerous fighter. Thiago is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, and a very solid overall grappler. His striking is sloppy, but does pack a little power. Sanchez looked completely out of it against Hathaway. Perhaps it was because it was his first fight back up at welterweight after taking some fights at lightweight, but he just didn’t seem right from the opening bell. Hathaway is a very good lightweight, so it is possible he was just thrown off his gameplan early and never recovered. Sanchez is now back with Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico after leaving the camp several years ago. This should help Sanchez get his focus back. In the cage, Sanchez’s high-octane offense features a good clinch game, solid Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and good ground n’ pound. He’s an average striker at best, so I don’t know who would really have the advantage there between these two. This is a tough fight to call. Both fighters are more comfortable on the ground, Thiago due to his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and Sanchez with his good top game. I think Sanchez comes in more focused and prepared, and earns a close decision victory. Sanchez via split decision.

Jake Shields vs. Martin Kampmann: One of the best welterweights in the world, Jake Shields is finally set to make his UFC debut. Shields has compiled a 25-4 record during his career, with victories over Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Jason “Mayhem” Miller, Mike Pyle, Paul Daley, and Dan Henderson on his resume. The win over Henderson was a dominant one, as he controlled the last four rounds of the fight. The victory was even more impressive considering the fight took place at Middleweight, instead of Shields’ preferred welterweight division. He’s on a 14-fight win streak dating back to 2005. Shields’ main strength is his Jiu Jitsu game and grappling ability. He transitions well, and his wrestling was extremely solid against Henderson. His striking isn’t pretty, and remains his main weakness, but he’s been able to overcome the deficiency with his high level grappling. Kampmann was once one fight away from a title shot against Georges St. Pierre, but a brutal loss to Paul Daley at UFC 103 took him out of the mix. Kampmann has rebounded well, getting consecutive victories over Jacob Volkmann and Paulo Thiago. He’s mainly known for his standup game, which is technically solid but not overly powerful. He’s also pretty good on the ground for someone who comes from a striking background, but he’ll be completely overmatched in that department in this fight. His best chance is to keep this fight standing, but eventually I think Shields will get this fight to the ground. Eventually, Shields will get the submission and put himself on the fast-track to a title shot. Shields via submission in the 2nd.

Brock Lesnar vs. Cain Velasquez: A truly intriguing heavyweight title fight will headline UFC 121. Velasquez is seen by many as the opponent who will give Lesnar the most trouble, due to his wrestling pedigree, cardio, and his striking. Velasquez comes into this fight unbeaten in his first eight professional fights, and is 6-0 in the UFC. He knocked out Antoinio Rodrigo Nogueira at UFC 110, and also has wins over Cheick Kongo and Ben Rothwell in his UFC run. He’s a former two-time All American wrestler at Arizona State, and he now trains with the American Kickboxing Academy in California. Since turning pro, the 28-year old Velasquez has turned himself into a very capable striker. His technique is very good for a heavyweight, and he showed more power in his win over Nogueira than he had shown previously. How much of that was due to Nogueira’s declining skill is hard to determine however. His camp raves about his cardio, but the only time we’ve really had a chance to see it was in his victory over Kongo at UFC 99. In that fight, Velasquez was rocked several times, but was able to utilize his wrestling and ground n’ pound to escape with a decision victory. His cardio looked good in that fight, but it’s hard for me to say that it is as outstanding as his camp maintains. He will come into this fight with about a 25-30 pound weight disadvantage against Lesnar, which could be helpful in the cardio department, but should give Lesnar the advantage in the wrestling department.

Lesnar came back from a brutal onslaught from Shane Carwin at UFC 116 to submit Carwin in the 2nd round. Lesnar didn’t react very well to getting hit from Carwin, but I attribute at least a small part of that to the long layoff that Lesnar had as he recovered from the diverticulitis that nearly ended his career. I don’t think he did enough sparring in the camp leading up to the Carwin fight, and seemed unprepared to engage in a striking contest. However, Lesnar showed toughness in surviving the attack from Carwin, and also showed good cardio in coming out as the much fresher man in the 2nd round. Getting beaten on for four minutes can really sap your energy, but Lesnar came out stronger in the 2nd round, took Carwin down, and then submitted him with an arm triangle. Lesnar also comes from a collegiate wrestling background, as he was the NCAA heavyweight champion in 2000. His striking is powerful but often awkward and timid. His top game is built entirely on control. He basically refuses to strike until he is certain that he has complete control of his opponent on the bottom, and then begins his assault. His ground game against Frank Mir in their 2nd fight was really something special, and something never really seen before in MMA. He had complete control of a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and basically pounded him out for two rounds before the fight was stopped. I don’t see Velasquez faring much better if he is in a similar position, but Velasquez is also less likely to find himself in that position than Mir was due to his wrestling background.

This is an extremely tough fight to call. I can see Velasquez controlling the striking early and escaping a few dangerous situations en route to a decision victory. I can also see Lesnar getting inside on Velasquez, scoring a takedown, and finishing him off on the ground in short order. I’m not sure that Velasquez has the power to stop Lesnar, but can definitely get a decision. However, Lesnar does have the shot at the knockout due to his power. Velasquez was hurt several times by Kongo, and while Kongo is a much more polished striker than Lesnar, Lesnar is the far more powerful striker of the two. It could only take one punch from Lesnar to change the fight. In the end, I think Lesnar survives some shaky standup exchanges early before taking command with his wrestling and top game late in the 2nd and into the 3rd round before stopping Velasquez. Velasquez is a threat, but I believe many are underestimating how good Lesnar really is, and how much his game has evolved since his career began. Lesnar via TKO in the 3rd.

Vitor Belfort Out of Scheduled UFC 112 Title Fight Against Silva

Tim — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 06:40:36 +0000

UFC middleweight contender Vitor Belfort was forced to take himself out of a scheduled middleweight title fight against Anderson Silva at UFC 112 due to a shoulder injury. Reports indicate that Belfort tried to continue training with the injury, but that it proved to be too severe to allow him to fight.

According to UFC president Dana White, Silva is still expected to fight on the card, though it is unknown whether he will face another middleweight challenger, or if he will fight someone in the light heavyweight division.

Chael Sonnen is the next in line for a title shot after Belfort, but due to injuries he suffered in his fight with Nate Marquardt last weekend, he is suspended from contact until mid-March. With such a quick turnaround and a shorter than normal training camp, it would be foolish for Sonnen to accept the fight against one of the top pound-for-pound fighters in the world.

Some have speculated that Randy Couture, fresh off his victory over Mark Coleman at UFC 109, could be someone that the UFC would ask to step up to fight Silva. I consider this prospect unlikely. Couture will likely need a little time off after putting in a full training camp for the Coleman fight, and I’m not sure if he’d be too keen on taking the trip to Abu Dhabi to fight Silva. However, I wouldn’t be surprised for Dana White to at least ask Couture if he’d be able to do it. Additionally, rumor has it that Couture is currently in talks to face Rich Franklin as the main event for UFC 115 in Vancouver.

UFC 112 is scheduled for April 10th and will take place in Abu Dhabi.

Brock Lesnar to Return in Summer to Face Mir/Carwin Winner

Tim — Wed, 20 Jan 2010 19:33:56 +0000

UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar and UFC President Dana White appeared on ESPN’s Sportscenter this morning for their first public comments since Lesnar had to cancel a scheduled November title defense.

During the seven minute interview, Lesnar described in detail how sick he became and how close his career came to being over. He also ripped into the Canadian health care system (but failed to mention it was American doctors who misdiagnosed him to begin with). The doctors decided against doing a possible career-ending surgery and instead waited to see if Lesnar could begin to heal on his own.

Lesnar began to heal on his own, and a recent trip to the doctor and further testing revealed that no surgery was needed and that he had healed on his own. Dana White called it a “miracle.” During the ordeal, Lesnar dropped 40 pounds, though he added that he’s been able to gain about 30 pounds back so far.

Lesnar emphasized that he still is the UFC heavyweight champion, and White announced plans to have Lesnar take on the winner of the Frank Mir/Shane Carwin interim title fight that is scheduled to take place at UFC 111 in March. No exact date was given, but White said it would be during the summer. White also added that if the winner of Mir or Carwin is unable to face Lesnar, Cain Velasquez or Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira could step in to face Lesnar.

Jon Fitch to take on Thiago Alves at UFC 107

Tim — Fri, 23 Oct 2009 05:39:08 +0000

In a battle of two of the last three guys to lose to UFC welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre, Jon Fitch will take on Thiago Alves at UFC 107. Fitch was scheduled to face Ricardo Almeida at UFC 106, but a knee injury forced Almeida out of the fight. Alves was rumored to be taking on Paulo Thiago at UFC 108, but instead he will step in against Fitch.

The two fought previously, with Fitch getting the TKO victory at UFC Fight Night 5 in 2006. Since then, both fighters have improved greatly. After the loss to Fitch, Alves went on a 7-0 tear, earning a title shot against Georges St. Pierre at UFC 100. He was thoroughly dominated in that contest, but a win over Fitch would get him right back in the title picture.

For Fitch, the Alves victory was part of an impressive 15 fight winning streak that spanned almost five years. St. Pierre ended that streak as well, dominating Fitch in a five-round decision at UFC 87. Since that loss, Fitch won decision victories over Akihiro Gono and Paulo Thiago, but is looking for a dominant performance to get himself a rematch with St. Pierre.

UFC 107 takes place in Memphis, Tennessee on December 7th. The event is headlined by a lightweight title contest between B.J. Penn and Diego Sanchez, and also features a heavyweight showdown between Cheick Kongo and Frank Mir, as well as an exciting lightweight battle between Clay Guida and Kenny Florian.

Randy Couture signs six-fight extension with UFC

Tim — Sun, 30 Aug 2009 05:39:05 +0000

During tonight’s post-fight press conference for UFC 102, Randy Couture quickly put to rest any thoughts that he may retire. Couture and UFC president Dana White announced that Couture has signed a six-fight contract extension with the UFC.

His last contract was scheduled to run out after his next fight. After receiving a question about retirement, Couture and White announced the news. Couture also reiterated that he was interested in “interesting fights,” no matter if they take place at heavyweight or light heavyweight.

When asked if he had intentions of fulfilling all six fights on the contract, Couture answered that he would take the fights “one at a time,” and would determine his next move after each fight. Regardless, the contract assures UFC fans that Couture will remain with the organization until he decides to retire.

Tito signing his contract to face Mark Coleman at UFC 106

Tim — Mon, 24 Aug 2009 19:06:03 +0000

Kimbo Slice preview video for “The Ultimate Fighter” season 10

Tim — Thu, 13 Aug 2009 19:42:45 +0000

Here’s a Kimbo Slice preview video for The Ultimate Fighter season 10:

Kimbo Slice – Street Certified

Chris Lytle injures knee/Forced off UFC Fight Night 19 card

Tim — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 07:17:10 +0000

UFC veteran welterweight Chris Lytle has a torn ACL and has been forced to withdraw from a scheduled fight with Carlos Condit at UFC Fight Night 19 in September. Lytle recently beat Kevin Burns in an exciting fight at “The Ultimate Fighter” season 9 finale. Lytle was also awarded a bonus for “Fight of the Night” for that performance. Overall, his MMA record stands at 27-17-5, while his UFC record is 6-9.

Condit was hoping to rebound from a loss to Martin Kampmann in his UFC debut back in April. He will likely remain on the card, although with a different opponent. UFC Fight Night 19 takes place on September 16th in Oklahoma City, three days before UFC 103 takes place in Dallas. The card is headlined by a main event between Melvin Guillard and Nate Diaz, and a co-main event between Gray Maynard and Roger Huerta.

Follow MMA Ground N’ Pound on Twitter

Tim — Tue, 11 Aug 2009 07:31:05 +0000

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Report: Fedor Emelianenko headed to UFC

Tim — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 00:06:08 +0000

Last week, UFC president Dana White promised some “crazy” announcements this week. One of them appears to be the signing of the #1 heavyweight in the world, Fedor Emelianenko. The UFC has tenatively scheduled a press conference for Friday afternoon, and according to the L.A. Times, Fedor and the UFC are close to a deal:

A long-awaited agreement between the Ultimate Fighting Championship and the man considered the world’s best mixed martial arts fighter, Fedor Emelianenko, is expected to be announced by UFC President Dana White on Friday, a source with information about the negotiations told The Times today.

Additional reports claim that Fedor and UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar are in negotiations to finalize a fight, possibly as early as UFC 103 in September.

Last weekend, Dana White hinted that the announced Rich Franklin/Dan Henderson main event for UFC 103 was not set in stone. This could be the change he was hinting at. UFC 103 goes up against Floyd Mayweather’s fight with Juan Marquez on pay-per-view the same night, so it would be interesting to see the PPV numbers UFC 103 would draw with Fedor/Lesnar in the main event.

Before we jump the gun however, it should be noted that Dana said last week he’d have a press conference this week. I doubt that White knew last week that they’d be close to a deal with Fedor already, so it’s quite possible that White and the UFC may announce something completely different on Friday. This is just one report, we’ll see if we get more info coming out here soon.

Stay tuned to MMA Ground N’ Pound for all the latest details, and don’t forget to follow us on Twitter for all the breaking news.