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UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 04:43:14 +0000

The UFC returns to Versus for their second event on the network. Jon Jones headlined the first UFC show on the network, and after making quick work of Brandon Vera on that night, Jones returns main event status as he takes on veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. The co-main event features Yushin Okami against Mark Munoz.

Tyson Griffin vs. Takanori Gomi: Gomi made his long-awaited UFC debut against Kenny Florian at UFC Fight Night 21, but looked like a shell of the fighter who dominated the lightweight division in PRIDE for so long. He was outclassed from bell to bell by Florian, who eventually finished the fight with a rear-naked choke in the third round. The loss was Gomi’s third loss in his last five fights. Gomi was scheduled to fight Joe Stevenson, but an injury to Stevenson forced him off the card. Griffin stepped in on short notice. Griffin is coming off a split-decision loss to Evan Dunham at UFC 115, but still sports an impressive 8-3 record in the UFC. During his UFC tenure, Griffin has beaten the likes of Hermes Franca, Clay Guida, Marcus Aurelio, and Gleison Tibau, and also defeated Urijah Faber prior to his UFC debut. Griffin is a solid wrestler with good kickboxing, though he doesn’t possess true knockout power. His fights are always exciting, and he sets a fast pace. Gomi would win this fight if he was in his prime, but unfortunately, I think he’s nearly done as a fighter. If Griffin decides to get in a slugfest with Gomi, he could definitely get knocked out. However, I think Griffin will utilize his wrestling more than he has in recent fights, and that will get him the decision victory. Griffin via unanimous decision.

John Howard vs. Jake Ellenberger: Howard has begun his UFC career in style, winning his first four fights, his last two by knockout. He made his debut at UFC 94, defeating Chris Wilson via split decision. He followed that up with another split decision win over Tamdan McCrory at UFC 101, before knocking out Dennis Hallman at the Ultimate Fighter 10 finale (a fight he was losing until the final seconds) and over Daniel Roberts at the first UFC Live event. Ellenberger made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 19, where he nearly scored a big upset over Carlos Condit but ended up dropping a close split decision. He followed up that performance with a 2nd round TKO over Mike Pyle at UFC 108. Howard is a pretty well rounded fighter, combining solid and powerful striking with a decent wrestling game. Ellenberger is mainly a wrestler, and a pretty good one at that. He’ll also have a few inches of reach advantage over Howard in this contest. The biggest skill set in this fight is Ellenberger’s wrestling, and that will win him this fight. There may be some tense moments, but Ellenberger will end up with the decision victory. Ellenberger via unanimous decision.

Yushin Okami vs. Mark Munoz: Munoz is coming off an exciting 2nd round victory over Kendall Grove at UFC 112 in a fight that nearly saw him beaten in the 1st round. Munoz came back in the 2nd round and used some brutal ground n’ pound to finish Grove. Munoz is 3-1 in the UFC, with a knockout loss to Matt Hamill as the only blemish on his record. Okami was once a top contender in the middleweight division, but has fallen back somewhat due to a somewhat methodical style as well as a lopsided loss to Chael Sonnen at UFC 104. He was once one of the stronger fighters in the middleweight division, but was manhandled somewhat at the hands of Sonnen. Like Sonnen, Munoz’s strength is his wrestling. He was a national champion at Oklahoma State but for some reason prefers to keep fights standing in the cage. He also has a very powerful ground n’ pound attack. Okami may struggle somewhat with the wrestling ability of Munoz if he uses it. Okami should be the stronger striker of the two, though he has never been known as a great striker himself. Munoz is still young in the sport and is prone to mistakes, the kind of mistakes a veteran like Okami can exploit. However, Munoz can be explosive if he used his wrestling well in the cage. This is a toss-up for me, but I think that Munoz’s wrestling ability wins out in the end. Munoz via unanimous decision.

Jon Jones vs. Vladimir Matyushenko: Matyushenko is a solid veteran light heavyweight. He rattled off an eight-fight winning streak from 2005-2008, before having it ended by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He had beaten Nogueira in their first contest in 2002. Matyushenko fought for the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 33 in 2001, but lost a unanimous decision to Tito Ortiz. After the loss to Ortiz, Matyushenko came back to defeat Travis Wiuff and Pedro Rizzo at UFC 40 and UFC 41 before losing to Andrei Arlovski at UFC 44. After the loss to Arlovski, Matyushenko fought mainly for the IFL, claiming their light heavyweight championship. He returned to the UFC at UFC 103, winning a unanimous decision over Igor Pokrajac. He followed that up with a split-decision win over Eliot Marshall at the first UFC Live event. Jones is one of the best prospects in the sport. He destroyed Brandon Vera at the first UFC Live event, winning by TKO in the first. The win improved his record to 4-1 in the UFC, with the only loss coming to Matt Hamill via DQ in a fight he was dominating. He comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background, but is an explosive and creative striker as well. He recently made the switch to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico. Jackson is admittedly working on eliminating some of the risk-taking out of Jones’ game. It’s fun to watch on TV, but opens him up to the possibilty of being caught. The Matyushenko fight is a good step for Jones. He’ll get to take on a tough veteran with a very solid wrestling game who has the ability to grind out a decision against him. Unfortunately for Matyushenko, that’s the only way I see him possibly winning the fight. However, Jones has the potential to win the fight standing, with positional wrestling, or with the vicious ground n’ pound he’s displayed on a couple of occasions. Jones will continue to rise up the rankings with another dominant win. Jones via TKO in the 2nd.

UFC 116 Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 05:34:35 +0000

UFC 116 features one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of all-time as Brock Lesnar takes on Shane Carwin for the heavyweight title. The undercard has some significant fights as well.

Brock Lesnar:

32 years old

6′3, 265lbs

1999 national runner-up in heavyweight division while wrestling for University of Minnesota

2000 National Division 1 heavyweight champion

UFC Career:

Loss vs. Frank Mir at UFC 81 (1st round submission)

Win vs. Heath Herring at UFC 87 (Unanimous decision)

Win vs. Randy Couture at UFC 91 to win UFC heavyweight championship (TKO round 2)

Win vs. Frank Mir at UFC 100 to retain UFC heavyweight championship (TKO round 2)

Shane Carwin:

35 years old

6′2, 265 lbs

1996 Division II runner-up in heavyweight division while at Western State College in Colorado

1997 Division II runner-up

1999 Division II national champion

UFC Career:

Win vs. Christian Wellisch at UFC 84 (1st round KO)

Win vs. Neil Wain at UFC 89 (1st round TKO)

Win vs. Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96 (1st round KO)

Win vs. Frank Mir at UFC 111 to win UFC interim heavyweight title (1st round KO)

Wrestling: There is a difference in wrestling between the two. It’s like the difference between an All-American quarterback at USC vs. an All-American quarterback at Western Illinois. In terms of what we’ve seen from the two in the wrestling department in the Octagon, Lesnar has been more effective. He took down Frank Mir at will twice, Heath Herring once, and outwrestled Randy Couture as well. Carwin got taken down by Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96, and had difficulty taking down Neil Wain at UFC 89. He did well to get himself back to his feet against Gonzaga, but to be taken down by a guy who is more noted for his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu then his wrestling, is a bit of a warning sign. If this was a pure wrestling contest, Lesnar would have the advantage hands-down.

Striking: Both have immense knockout power. Lesnar turned Frank Mir and Heath Herring’s faces into lunchmeat, and knocked out Randy Couture with what amounted to a glancing right hook. Carwin knocked Gonzaga cold with a right hook that he barely even stepped into, and did the same to Mir with short, vicious uppercuts. We’ve seen Carwin take a pretty solid punch from Gonzaga and shake it off, while Brock’s chin hasn’t really been tested that much. He was staggered slightly by Couture, and may have been by a knee from Mir in the 2nd fight, but was able to gain a takedown off of that mistake from Mir. These are both huge guys who hit hard, but I think Carwin may be a tad more polished as a striker. If this was a pure striking battle, I would give a slight edge to Carwin.

X-Factors:

Conditioning: Many things at play here. Carwin has never been out of the 1st round, so we don’t know how his cardio will last. Lesnar has been into the 2nd round 3 times, and went 3 rounds against Heath Herring. However, Carwin does train at altitude in Colorado, and his trainers insist he can go 5 rounds no problem.

Could Lesnar’s long layoff (Just 8 days short of an entire year) play a role here? Word from Randy Couture who went up to Minnesota to train with Lesnar a couple weeks ago is that Brock is slimmer and has changed his diet because of the illness he suffered. Couture claims that Lesnar is currently at 280lbs, which is about 20 lbs under what he was fighting at before he got sick. He won’t have to cut as much weight to get to the 265 lb limit as he normally does, but the size advantage he has over just about every other heavyweight is negated a little in this one. Tonight, Carwin tweeted that he is currently 277 lbs. Brock still is a bigger overall guy, but it won’t be a huge difference come fight night.

Carwin’s full-time job. I know Carwin hates when people bring it up, but the fact of the matter is that MMA is Carwin’s 2nd job. He’s a full-time engineer in Colorado, and while I don’t doubt that he trains extremely hard, there’s something to be said both mentally and physically when all you have to do is train for a fight. Brock can do that, Carwin can’t. Is it a huge advantage for Lesnar? No. Is it worth mentioning? Yes.

Breakdown: They key to this one is going to be the wrestling in my opinion. Lesnar knows that Carwin has the power to lay him out, so he’ll try to utilize his superior wrestling and strength to get this one to the ground. We haven’t seen much of Carwin off his back, but I don’t imagine he’s too prepared to sweep or change positions on Lesnar. If Mir couldn’t do anything off his back with all of his BJJ skills, I don’t think Carwin can do much either, even though he’s bigger than Mir. Carwin’s clinch game was where he ended Mir’s night, so Lesnar has to be aware of that and must avoid being pushed against the cage where Carwin can land those short uppercuts. I suspect that Randy Couture, the king of dirty boxing and clinching, showed Lesnar some things he’ll be able to use against Carwin to limit the damage. Overall, Lesnar is the better wrestler and the better athlete. He’s just so explosive and strong. His athleticism gets overlooked because of his size, but he’s one of the best athletes in the world, I really believe that. I’d feel much more confident picking him before the illness and the long layoff, but I still think he has the advantage in this one. Lesnar via TKO in the 2nd.

Co-Main event: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

Leben is a late replacement for Wanderlei Silva, who had to withdraw with broken ribs. Leben fought on June 19th at the Ultimate Fighter finale, and beat Aaron Simpson via 2nd round TKO. Leben is 10-5 in his UFC career, with wins over Patrick Cote, Jorge Santiago and Simpson, and losses to Anderson Silva, Michael Bisping, Jason MacDonald and Jake Rosholt amongst others.

Akiyama will be in his 2nd fight for the UFC after winning via split-decision over Alan Belcher at UFC 100. Some publications have him as a top 10 middleweight. He’s a black belt in Judo, and his striking has improved greatly in recent years. He’s a huge star in Japan and is 13-1 overall in his career. He’s got a good top game to go along with his Judo skills and his still developing striking. Akiyama originally had some hesitation in agreeing to fight Leben, thinking it was a step downward in competition, but he eventually accepted the fight.

Breakdown: The majority of this fight will most likely take place standing. Akiyama’s Judo skills are tremendous, but he also doesn’t mind to stand and bang. Leben will have no problem with that. He’s mainly a sprawl and brawl fighter. His takedown defense is pretty good, though is overall grappling game is still underwhelming, and he pretty much puts everything he has into every punch. My problem with Leben is that everytime he’s stepped up to face a top-level guy, he’s fallen short. He’s too one-dimensional. He always has the ”puncher’s chance,” but should be outclassed by Akiyama in this one, especially on such short notice. Akiyama via unanimous decision.

Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown-

This fight is a rematch from 2007, where Lytle defeated Brown with a guillotine in the 2nd round in the “Ultimate Fight League” in Indiana.

Lytle has had 50 pro fights, and is 28-17-5 in his career. He comes from a boxing background, but is also a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, something that he doesn’t utilize very frequently. He’s won his last two fights, over Brian Foster at UFC 110 via 1st round submission, and over Kevin Burns via unanimous decision at the Ultimate Finale 9.

Brown’s record doesn’t look especially pretty at 11-8, but prior to a 2nd round submission loss to Ricardo Almeida at UFC 111, he had won three consecutive fights in the UFC. He’s still a work in progress on the ground, and even though his striking is often sloppy, he does possess decent power.

Breakdown: Lytle should have the advantage in this one. He’s a better technical striker, and he doesn’t have to worry about Brown really trying to take him down too often. Lytle’s often overlooked ground skills could come into play as well. He has many more ways to win this fight then Brown does. Lytle via TKO in the 2nd.

Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar:

This is a rematch from their fight at UFC 110, where Soszynski picked up the victory via 3rd round TKO after the fight was stopped due to a cut on Bonnar’s head. The cut was caused by an accidental headbutt by Soszynski. Both fighters requested the rematch.

Bonnar made a name for himself in the first season of the Ultimate Fighter and especially with his fight with Forrest Griffin in the Finale of the season. Dana White has said that Bonnar will be with the companyfor life, though eventually I think he’s going to need to put some victories together. Including the loss to Soszynski, Bonnar has lost 3 consecutive contests, including an embarassing loss to Mark Coleman at UFC 100. He’s got pretty good BJJ (officially a purple belt under Carlson Gracie, but believed to be brown or black belt level) and also a former Golden Gloves boxer in Chicago.

Soszynski appeared on the 8th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Since beginning his UFC career, Soszynski has gone 4-1, with the only loss coming to Brandon Vera at UFC 102. He’s a pretty well rounded fighter, and actually has more pro fights than Bonnar. He’s a solid striker and is proficient in submissions as well.

Breakdown: In the first fight, Soszynski was getting the better of the action standing, so I expect him to keep the same game plan. Bonnar really needs this win, but since the first fight was so recent, I don’t really see how he could have improved the things he needed to improve on to get the better of Soszynki in a rematch. His best chance is to probably get this fight to the ground, but in the end, I think Soszynski gets the unanimous decision win he was heading towards before the cut stopped the first fight.

Kurt Pellegrino vs. George Sotiropolous: This is a fight that could determine the next challenger to the winner of the Frankie Edgar/B.J. Penn rematch.

Sotiropolous has been extremely impressive, going 5-0 since appearing on the 6th season of the Ultimate Fighter. Most recently, Sotiropolous soundly beat former title challenger Joe Stevenson via unanimous decision at UFC 110. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and his BJJ against Stevenson (also a black belt) was absolutely sick. He controlled that entire fight. His standup game is improving as well.

Pellegrino has won his past four UFC fights, most recently beating Fabricio Camoes via submission at UFC 111. That was a very close fight before Pellegrino locked in the choke at the end of the 2nd round. Pellegrino is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and has recently said he’s not afraid of Sotiropolous’ ground game. He comes from a wrestling background.

Breakdown: Sotiropolous is the narrow favorite on the betting lines. He’ll have the reach advantage come fight night, and in my opinion, has better BJJ skills, at least in the way that he uses them in MMA. Pellegrino has had a career resurgence in the past year and a half, but Sotiropolous’ absolutely dominating performance over Joe Stevenson has me convinced. Sotiropolous via submission in the 2nd.

UFC 116 Open Workout Highlights

Tim — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 05:15:43 +0000

Great video with some of the highlights of the UFC 116 open workouts. Notice Lesnar going with the southpaw stance in some of the footage? Some reports indicate that Lesnar will use that stance come Saturday night, believing that it helps his wrestling.

Thanks to heavy.com for the video:

Shane Carwin Predicts KO of Brock Lesnar on ESPN

Tim — Thu, 01 Jul 2010 05:08:57 +0000

Shane Carwin was a guest on Sportscenter yesterday, and predicted a KO win over Brock Lesnar:

UFC 114:Rampage vs. Evans Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 28 May 2010 06:06:59 +0000

The main event of UFC 114, Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans, has been in the works for quite awhile. Just as the rivalry between the two reached a fever pitch, the fight was put on hold as Jackson pursued a role in the upcoming “A-Team” movie. All the trash talking will finally come to an end (or will at least pause) on Saturday as the two former light heavyweight champions will finally square off.

Diego Sanchez vs. John Hathaway: Sanchez will make his return to the UFC’s welterweight divison after losing a lightweight title fight against B.J. Penn at UFC 107. Prior to the loss against Penn, Sanchez had reeled off four consecutive wins, including two wins in the welterweight class. He first contemplated the move to lightweight after consecutive losses to Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch. In his career, Sanchez is 23-3, with an impressive 10-3 record in the UFC. He mixes decent striking with solid wrestling and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills as well as a motor that is constantly in high gear. Hathaway will be fighting in the United States for the first time in his professional career. He owns a 3-0 UFC record with wins over Thomas Egan, Rick Story and Paul Taylor, all at events that took place in Europe. Needless to say, he’s making a big jump up in competition in this one. That’s not to say that he isn’t a capable opponent. He’s very effective from top position, though it’s going to be difficult for him to get that position on Sanchez, who is a better wrestler and is good in scrambles. Hathaway’s striking game doesn’t compare with Sanchez’s either. He’s a tough fighter and can probably hang in for awhile with Sanchez, but I think his chances of winning this fight are slim to none. Hathaway is only 22 and will continue to improve, but he’s not at Sanchez’s level yet. Sanchez via submission in the 2nd.

Antonio Rogerio Nogueira vs. Jason Brilz: Nogueira was originally scheduled to take on Forrest Griffin in the co-headlining bout, but a shoulder injury forced Griffin to pull out of the contest. Brilz took the fight on short notice. Nogueira made his UFC debut at UFC 106, impressively beating Luis Cane in the 1st round via TKO. He was scheduled to return against Brandon Vera at UFC 109, but a broken ankle forced him off that card. Nogueira is 18-3 in his MMA career, with victories over Alistair Overeem, Dan Henderson, Sakuraba, and Cane among others. He’s similar to his heavyweight twin brother Antonio Rodrigo in the fact that they are both black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, and also accomplished boxers. His boxing allowed him to completely pick apart Cane before he finished him off in their contest. He is a serious threat to make a run in the UFC’s light heavweight divsion. Brilz is an impressive 18-2 in his MMA career, though he hasn’t fought anyone anywhere near the class of Nogueira. He comes from a wrestling background, though the rest of his game needs a lot of work. I don’t see this fight lasting very long. Nogueira will outclass him in every aspect. Brilz should be commended for taking this fight on short notice against a top-tier light heavyweight, but this one could end violently. Nogueira via TKO in the 1st.

Todd Duffee vs. Mike Russow: Duffee makes his return to the Octagon following his impressive debut at UFC 102, where he knocked out Tim Hague in seven seconds. He’s 6-0 in his career, with all 6 wins coming via stoppage. He’s an extremely powerful heavyweight with improving all-around skills. He doesn’t really have much of a wrestling background, but has made a name for himself with his pure strength and athleticism. Russow bounced around regional promotions in the Chicago area, and is also a Chicago police officer. He’s 12-1 in his MMA career, and won his UFC debut over Justin McCully at UFC 102. He mainly utilizes his wrestling skills, though he’s also won eight of his fights via submission. The level of competition of the opponents he’s submitted is a large factor however. I think he’s going to have big problems if he tries to stand and strike with Duffee, and I’m not convinced that Russow’s wrestling background is strong enough for him to control Duffee that way either. Russow is a tough opponent, but even though I think the Duffee hype-machine is way out of control, Duffee should find this a winnable fight. Duffee via TKO in the 2nd.

Michael Bisping vs. Dan Miller: This bout got bounced up to co-main event status due to the injury to Forrest Griffin forced him out of the contest with Nogueira. Bisping has dropped two of his last three fights, with a victory over Denis Kang sandwiched between the KO loss to Dan Henderson, and a unanimous decision loss to Wanderlei Silva at UFC 110. Overall, Bisping is 18-3 in his MMA career, and boasts a strong 8-3 UFC record. He’s mainly known for his striking. Although not exactly powerful, his style allows him to outpoint most of his opponents. Additionally, Bisping has shown much better grappling skills in recent fights. He may not be a danger to submit anyone off his back, but he’s learned how to use his Brazlilian Jiu Jitsu to keep himself out of danger and more importantly, get himself in better position to get the fight back standing. Miller has dropped his past two fights in the UFC. He lost to Chael Sonnen at UFC 98 and Demian Maia at UFC 109, both via unanimous decision. Bisping doesn’t have Sonnen’s wrestling skills or Maia’s BJJ skills, but he does possess enough of an all-around game to give Miller problems. I think Miller will get outclassed on his feet, and though he is a better grappler than Bisping, he’s not quite good enough there to submit Bisping. Miller’s a tough competitor and has enough skill to pose a threat, but in the end I think Bisping will get the nod. Bisping via unanimous decision.

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs. Rashad Evans: As one of the most hyped “grudge matches” in UFC history, this fight has a lot of buzz going for it right now. Jackson is coming off filming for the “A-Team” movie, which has had some question his training and mindset for this fight. He was last seen in the Octagon at UFC 96, where he defeated Evans’ teammate Keith Jardine. Jackson has fought some of the best light heavyweights in MMA, defeating the likes of Chuck Liddell (twice), Ricardo Arona, Wanderlei Silva, and Dan Henderson in his career. He posseses vicious knockout power to go along with decent boxing technique and underrated takedown defense. He claims to be in great shape and looks to be focused, but the questions about his motivation and training will persist until the fight.

Evans recovered from the KO loss to Lyoto Machida to defeat Thiago Silva via unanimous decision at UFC 108. In that fight, he mainly utilized his wrestling background, but was staggered and nearly finished by Silva in the 3rd round. It was later revealed that Silva was battling an injury going into the fight, so it’s possible a healthy Silva could have finished Evans in the third round. Evans is 14-1-1 in his MMA career and held the light heavyweight championship after beating Forrest Griffin at UFC 92 before losing the belt to Machida at UFC 98. I’ve always thought that there were many aspects of Evans’ game that are overrated. He is a solid wrestler and comes from a collegiate wrestling background, but he is far from elite in that department. His striking is often overrated because of his vicious knockout of Chuck Liddell at UFC 88, but he was getting beaten on his feet by Griffin before catching a leg kick and dropping him and was blown out by Machida in their title fight. Being outstruck by Machida is nothing to be ashamed of, but Evans barely even landed a punch in that fight. His footwork and head movement are often praised, but in reality, it’s mostly useless and inefficient movement. His footwork often leaves him flat footed and unable to counter skilled strikers. Those flawed aspects of his game could prove fatal against Jackson, who besides being very powerful, is also a pretty skilled boxer. Jackson’s defensive wrestling is very solid, and I don’t think Rashad will have much success in that department either. As you can tell, I’m having a hard time finding a way that Evans can win this fight. I think all signs point to a dominating performance from Jackson, and most likely a victory via stoppage. Evans’ chin is closer to glass than it is granite, and I expect it to be tested in this one. All this hype and trash talking will come to a crashing halt with one hook from Rampage. Jackson via KO in the 2nd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Dong Hyun Kim over Amir Sadollah via unanimous decision

Efrain Escudero over Dan Lauzon via TKO in the 2nd

Melvin Guillard over Waylon Lowe via TKO in the 1st

Luis Cane over Cyrille Diabate via TKO in the 2nd

Aaron Riley over Joe Brammer via unanimous decision

Ryan Jensen over Jesse Forbes via submission in the 1st

UFC 113: Machida vs. Shogun II- Preview and Predictions

Tim — Sat, 08 May 2010 06:17:37 +0000

UFC 113 is headlined by one of the most highly anticipated rematches in the history of MMA, as UFC light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida will face off against Mauricio “Shogun” Rua for the second time. In the first matchup between the two at UFC 104, Machida escaped with a razor-thin decision victory, a decision that has caused heated debate amongst the MMA community. UFC president Dana White called for an immediate rematch between the two, and it finally happens tomorrow night.

Sam Stout vs. Jeremy Stephens: Stout is coming off one of the best performances of his career at UFC 108, where he battered Joe Lauzon for three rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory. The win moved his UFC record to 4-4 and his overall MMA record to 15-5. His main weapon is his striking, though he lacks the true knockout power to finish guys. However, his speed, accuracy and technique are enough to frustrate and wear down his opponents. Stephens is more of a pure power guy. When he throws a punch, he throws it with the intention of knocking his opponent out. Stephens is 17-5 in his MMA career, and is 4-4 in his UFC career. He last defeated Justin Buchholz at UFC Fight Night 19. I doubt this fight will see the ground very often. Stephens is dangerous because of his power, but Stout’s speed and technical striking will make Stephens look foolish at times during the fight. Stout via unanimous decision.

Patrick Cote vs. Alan Belcher: Cote is making his return to the Octagon after injuring his knee in his middleweight title shot against Anderson Silva at UFC 90. That fight was rather uneventful before Cote suffered the knee injury, but he did display a tough chin if nothing else. Prior to the loss to Silva, Cote had won his previous four UFC fights to earn the title shot. Cote is 13-5 in his career, and is mainly known for his striking. He’s shown good power and as I mentioned earlier, he’s got a pretty tough chin as well. Belcher is also mainly known for his kickboxing. He’s 15-6 in his MMA career, and is coming off a TKO victory over Wilson Gouveia at UFC 107. The problem with Belcher’s stand-up game is that he leaves himself wide open for counters. It’s hard to predict what the layoff will do to Cote’s timing and conditioning, but I think he can find the chin of Belcher early and often. Cote via TKO in the 2nd.

Kimbo Slice vs. Matt Mitrione: Well, not much to really analyze in this one. Both fighters won their UFC debuts. Mitrione knocked out Marcus Jones on The Ultimate Finale 10, while Slice won a unanimous decision over Houston Alexander on the same card. Slice trains with American Top Team and showed a little bit of a ground game in his victory over Alexander, though he was fighting a guy that weighs about 45 pounds less than Mitrione. He also fought more patiently and his striking was slightly more technical. Mitrione is a brawler. He’s a big guy who hits hard, and also tries to throw his punches from halfway across the Octagon. Neither has much of a gas tank, so if this fight lasts til the third round, it’s gonna get really ugly. Mitrione certainly has the power to end Kimbo’s night quickly, but if Kimbo fights a disciplined fight like he did against Alexander, he can definitely win. I think Kimbo will batter a tired Mitrione in the 2nd round and finish the fight. Slice via TKO in the 2nd.

Josh Koscheck vs. Paul Daley: The winner of this welterweight showdown will be featured as a coach in the next season of The Ultimate Fighter against Georges St. Pierre, and will get a title shot against GSP after the show. Koscheck has won his past two fights over Frank Trigg and Anthony Johnson after losing in an upset to Paulo Thiago at UFC 95. Overall, Koscheck is 12-4 inside the Octagon. He came into the UFC from a highly successful collegiate wrestling career, and he’s done a good job of rounding out his overall game. Sometimes he falls in love a little too much with his striking, but he did a good job of utilizing his wrestling in his victory over Johnson at UFC 106. Daley is 23-8 in his MMA career, but has won his first two fights in the UFC, destroying both Martin Kampmann and Dustin Hazelett in the first round. He’s primarily a striker, and has knockout power in both hands. His ground game has been a major weakness for him throughout his career, and I expect Koscheck to fight intelligently and use his huge advantage on the ground. Koscheck says Daley is going to sleep, and I believe him. Koscheck via submission in the 1st.

Lyoto Machida vs. Shogun Rua: The first fight was a great tactical battle and an extremely close fight. I scored the fight for Shogun, but I can see it the other way as well. I definitely don’t feel like the decision was a robbery, as some stated after the fight. Machida is an impressive 16-0 in his career, with UFC wins over Tito Ortiz, Thiago Silva, Rashad Evans and Rua. His Karate style frustrates opponents, and Rua was the first fighter to really test him in the UFC. Rua was once one of the most feared light heavyweights in the world in the mid-2000s, as he ran through opponents such as Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, Alistair Overeem and Ricardo Arona. His debut in the UFC was a disappointment for some, as Forrest Griffin was able to take advantage of a clearly injured “Shogun” and won via 3rd round submission. Shogun supporters were likely even more disappointed in his performance against Mark Coleman at UFC 93, a fight he won via TKO in the 3rd round but hardly impressed. Rua looked more like his old self in his first-round win over Chuck Liddell at UFC 97, and his performance against Machida at UFC 104 was masterful. He utilized leg and body kicks to slow Machida down, and kept him off balance throughout much of the fight. Will the same game plan work in the rematch? Probably not. Adjustments will probably be made on both sides, so I’m going to go with who I think is the better fighter. That’s Shogun. Rua via TKO in the 3rd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Marcus Davis over Jonathan Goulet via TKO in the 1st

Tim Hague over Joey Beltran via unanimous decision

Johny Hendricks over T.J. Grant via TKO in the 2nd

Tom Lawlor over Joe Doerksen via unanimous decision

Yoshiyuki Yoshida over Mike Guymon via unanimous decision

Jason MacDonald over John Salter via submission in the 2nd

WEC 48: Aldo vs. Faber Preview and Predictions

Tim — Sat, 24 Apr 2010 05:37:45 +0000

WEC 48 marks the organization’s first foray into the Pay-Per-View market. They will get the full UFC treatment on Saturday, complete with Joe Rogan and Mike Goldberg on the call, Bruce Buffer doing the introductions, and Dana White handling the promotion. Beyond all that lies one of the best cards of the year on paper, featuring a hotly anticipated featherweight title bout between Jose Aldo and Urijah Faber.

Antonio Banuelos vs. Scott Jorgensen: This is a rematch from their close decision battle at WEC 41. In that matchup, Banuelos came away with a split-decision victory in one of the best fights of the year. Since then, Banuelos won a unanimous decision over Kenji Osawa at WEC 44, improving his record to 17-5 overall, while Jorgensen has won his past three fights over Noah Thomas, Takeya Mizugaki and Chad George. Jorgensen was an excellent collegiate wrestler, and utilizes it well in the cage. In recent fights, he’s improved his striking and his clinch game, things that will come in handy in this rematch. Banuelos trains with John Hackleman and utilized his striking very well in the first meeting between the two. He probably remains the better striker than Jorgensen, though I think the gap has closed significantly. His defensive wrestling was also solid, limiting Jorgensen’s takedowns and strong ground n’ pound. I think Banuelos will have much more difficulty in stopping Jorgensen’s shot in this contest. I think Jorgensen will come in with a different gameplan, and his skills have improved to where he can actually utilize it as well. Jorgensen via TKO in the 2nd.

Shane Roller vs. Anthony Njokuani: Pretty easy to describe this matchup: wrestler vs. striker. Roller was an excellent collegiate wrestler at Oklahoma State, and has used his strong wrestling background to rack up a 7-2 MMA record. Since entering the WEC, Roller has gone 4-1, with his only loss coming to current WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson. Three of those four victories have come via either guillotine or rear naked choke, which shows that he has been working on other parts of his game as well. However, his striking is nowhere near where it needs to be for Roller to compete with the absolute top fighters in the division. Njokuani is a fearsome striker. He destroyed a tough competitor in Chris Horodecki at WEC 45. He’s 3-1 in his WEC career, with his only loss also coming to Ben Henderson. He’s won three consecutive “Knockout of the Night’” honors and for good reason. His striking is accurate and powerful and his range makes him extremely dangerous from a distance. Njokuani will like to utilize that reach to keep Roller from getting in close, as Njokuani’s defensive wrestling is definitely an area he needs to work on. I just don’t see Roller being able to control Njokuani enough over three rounds to win a decision. Roller also likes to showcase his striking on occasion, and if he does that against Njokuani, it will end very quickly and very badly for him. His only hope is to land takedowns and hope that his top game is good enough to smother Njokuani over three rounds. I see Njokuani catching him eventually. When he does, it’s lights out. Njokuani via TKO in the 1st.

Mike Brown vs. Mavel Gamburyan: Brown will be looking to continue his climb back up the featherweight ladder after losing his title to Jose Aldo at WEC 44. In his first fight after the loss, Brown dominated an overmatched Anthony Morrison at WEC 46. He won that fight via rear naked choke under two minutes into the first round. In this fight, Brown will take on former UFC lightweight Manvel Gamburyan. Gamburyan dropped to the featherweight division and moved over to the WEC after losing two consecutive fights at UFC 87 and UFC 94. The move has proven successful, as Gamburyan has won his first two fights inside the WEC, including a decision victory over Leonard Garcia at WEC 44. Gamburyan is a Judo black belt, and is a solid wrestler. He utilizes a pretty good top game to grind out decisions over guys who aren’t really wrestlers, but he’ll have a hard time doing that against Brown. Gamburyan’s main weakness is his striking, and though Brown isn’t Jose Aldo in that department, he’s good enough to give Gamburyan many problems. He’s also a better wrestler than Gamburyan, and his overall ground game is better as well. I don’t think Gamburyan can win this fight. I just have a really hard time believing that he can do anything better than Brown in this matchup. Brown by unanimous decision.

Donald Cerrone vs. Ben Henderson: This is a rematch for the lightweight title. The two fought at WEC 43 in one of the best fights of the year, with Henderson winning the unanimous decision and ther interim lightweight title. Since then, Henderson unified the title by submitting Jamie Varner at WEC 46, while Cerrone submitted Ed Ratcliff at WEC 45. The first fight between the two was an entertaining and very close fight, and this one shapes up much the same way. Cerrone is the taller fighter, and utilizes his reach advantage in his striking game pretty well. He’s also very dangerous with submissions. His main weakness is his takedown defense, something that Henderson took advantage of in the first matchup. Henderson is improving in all areas of his game, but his striking remains his main weakness. I think Cerrone can take advantage of that fact much more than he did in the first matchup. The key for Cerrone is improvement in his takedown defense. I think part of it stems from the fact that he is very comfortable fighting off his back, but he needs to stuff a few more takedowns in the rematch. I picked Cerrone in the first matchup and I’m not changing that for the rematch. He can control the fight with his reach and his striking, and he is so dangerous on the ground as well that I just don’t see Henderson winning this fight. He’s proven me wrong once, but I don’t think he will again. Cerrone via submission in the 3rd.

Jose Aldo vs. Urijah Faber: It’s the past vs. the present in the main event of the evening. The former WEC featherweight champion and the face of the WEC, Urijah Faber, will take on the current featherweight title holder and one of the most exciting fighters in all of MMA in Jose Aldo. When Faber lost his title to Mike Brown at WEC 36, many people considered it a fluke. He was caught flush with a huge right hand after he came off the cage looking for a spinning elbow. Faber got the rematch with Brown at 41, and this time the fight went the distance with Brown winning again and retaining the title. Faber broke his right hand early in the fight and ended up throwing elbows for the majority of the contest. He rebounded to beat a very tough Raphael Assuncao at WEC 46 via submission. His MMA record stands at 23-3.

Aldo ran through his first four fights in the WEC in quick fashion, and everyone took notice when he KO’d Cub Swanson in only eight seconds at WEC 41. That lightning quick victory earned him the title shot against Mike Brown at WEC 44. Aldo went on to dominate the first round against Brown, and finished him in the 2nd, winning the title. Brown was basically never even competitive in the fight. Aldo’s excellent technical and quick striking battered Brown, and his takedown defense kept the fight standing. He’ll try to employ a similar gameplan against Faber.

Even though Brown beat Faber twice and Aldo beat Brown, MMAth doesn’t always work. I think Faber is a much tougher matchup for Aldo than Brown was. He’s much quicker, though not as quick as Aldo, and Faber is more explosive with his takedowns. Faber’s striking isn’t as technically strong as Brown’s, but he uses unique angles and sometimes reckless moves that have won him numerous fights. I just think Aldo is too much for anyone in the featherweight division right now. I haven’t even mentioned Aldo’s Brazilian Jiu Jitsu game, which from all accounts, is pretty dangerous as well. I actually toyed with the idea that Faber could pull off the upset, but in the end, I just don’t see it happening. I think Faber will hang in there longer than many think, but eventually Aldo will take control. Aldo via TKO in the 3rd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Leonard Garcia over Chan Sung Jung via TKO in the 2nd

Anthony Pettis over Alex Karalexis via TKO in the 1st

Demetrious Johnson over Brad Pickett via unanimous decision

Chad Mendes over Anthony Morrison via unanimous decision

Takeya Mizugaki over Rani Yahya via TKO in the 2nd

Tyler Toner over Brandon Visher via TKO in the 1st

Photo Courtesy: Bloody Elbow

Strikeforce: Nashville Preview and Predictions

Tim — Fri, 16 Apr 2010 03:45:51 +0000

Strikeforce will make it’s return to network television this Saturday for Strikeforce: Nashville. After a moderately successful debut on CBS, it will be interesting to see how the sophomore effort does on the network without the star power of top heavyweight Fedor Emelianenko.

Gilbert Melendez vs. Shinya Aoki: Gilbert Melendez will defend his Strikeforce lightweight title against the talented Japanese star Shinya Aoki, who will be making his U.S. debut. Melendez won the interim title by defeating Rodrigo Damm at Strikeforce: Shamrock vs. Diaz in April of 2009. He defended that interim title in a TKO victory over Mitsuhiro Ishida at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg, and then unified the lightweight title by defeating Josh Thomson at Strikeforce: Evolution via unanimous decision. Melendez is 17-2 in his MMA career, with the only two losses coming against Ishida and Thomson, losses that he obviously avenged in recent months. Melendez is a solid wrestler and he is making gains in his striking. He still doesn’t possess one-punch knockout power, but he exhibited good jabs in his victory over Thomson. Aoki is one of the best grapplers in the sport, and has racked up an impressive 23-4 record, with 16 of those wins coming via submission. He has beaten the likes of Eddie Alvarez, Joachim Hansen and Caol Uno in his career, and has won six of his last seven fights. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and also in Judo. His lack of any sort of striking game is his main weakness, but he has been able to overcome that with his superior submission skills. One interesting side note in this fight is that Aoki will not be permitted to wear spandex pants during the fight. He has worn these pants for his fights in Japan, and some claim that it gives him help in his grappling. However, Aoki is likely going to wear spandex shorts that stop at his knee and knee braces below that which will give him much the same affect. I, for one, think he’s just as dangerous with or without the spandex pants, but sometimes fighters are thrown off by small psychological things. I think Melendez has a good chance to control the majority of the fight with his striking advantage, but all Aoki needs is a little opening to end the fight. I think Aoki will eventually find an opening. Aoki via submission in the 3rd.

Mo Lawal vs. Gegard Mousasi: This is a really compelling matchup. Lawal is one of the top prospects in the game and he’s getting a quick push to take on Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Gegard Mousasi. It probably would shock a lot of fans to know that Lawal is actually older than Mousasi by four years. At only 24 years of age, Mousasi is already one of the top light heavyweights in the sport, and he still has room to improve. Mousasi brings an impressive 28-2-1 record to the cage, and has scored victories over Hector Lombard, Denis Kang, Melvin Manhoef, Jacare Souza and “Babalu” Sobral during his relatively short career. Mousasi is an excellent striker, and his ground game is ever improving. He utilized vicious ground n’ pound to finish off Sobral at Strikeforce: Carano vs. Cyborg to win the light heavyweight title. Lawal is one of the most accomplished amateur wrestlers currently in MMA. He finished 7th at the world championships in 2005, and was one of the top ranked amateur wrestlers in the world in 2007-2008. His chance at the Olympics ended at the 2008 Olympic trials, and it was after this that Lawal entered MMA. He’s gone 6-0 to start his career, and most recently KO’d Mike Whitehead at Strikeforce: Evolution. He’s obviously a talented wrestler, but his striking is impressive for someone who is relatively new to the sport. He not only possesses fight stopping knockout power, but he’s also improving technically. It’s entirely possible for Lawal to upset Mousasi in this contest. He has the advantage in the wrestling department, and his power is a threat at any time. However, it’s hard to pick against Mousasi’s talent and experience. I think if this fight took place in a year or two, Lawal may have the advantage. However, I just don’t think he’s quite ready for someone of Mousasi’s caliber at this point. Mousasi via TKO in the 2nd.

Dan Henderson vs. Jake Shields: Shields will be trying to defend his Strikeforce middleweight title against the former PRIDE and UFC standout, Dan Henderson. Henderson was signed after his contract expired with the UFC in December, and this will be his first fight for the organization. Shields won the vacant title by beating Jason “Mayhem” Miller at Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers in a pretty boring affair. Shields was in trouble once in the closing stages of the third round when Miller locked in a rear naked choke, but Shields was saved by the bell. He went on to win the unanimous decision to win the title. Shields is 24-4-1 in his career and has fought mostly at welterweight. He’ll be at a disadvantage in size and strength in this fight. Shields is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt and has a collegiate wrestling background. His main weakness is his striking, and that’s something that Henderson will look to exploit in this contest.

Henderson remains one of the top middleweights and light heavyweights in the world. His career record is 25-7 and he holds wins over Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira, “Babalu” Sobral, Renzo Gracie, Vitor Belfort, Wanderlei Silva and Rich Franklin. His record in the UFC during his last stint was 3-2, but the two losses were to “Rampage” Jackson and Anderson Silva. His last fight in the UFC was a devastating knockout victory over Michael Bisping at UFC 100. Henderson was negotiating a new contract after that fight, and believed he deserved more money from the UFC after the win and a successful stint as a coach on the 9th season of The Ultimate Fighter. Dana White disagreed, and Henderson instead signed with Strikeforce. Just like in his return to the UFC, Henderson’s first fight in Strikeforce will be a title fight. Henderson began in MMA off of an amateur wrestling background. Henderson was a two-time Olympian in Greco-Roman wrestling for the United States prior to beginning his MMA career. With his wrestling base intact, Henderson began to turn his attention to his striking. While still not a very technical striker, he makes up for it with huge power in both hands. I really don’t see an avenue for Shields to win this fight. He’s at a size disadvantage, a striking disadvantage, and I don’t see him submitting Henderson either. I expect Henderson to use his wrestling to keep the fight standing long enough for him to land a knockout punch. Don’t be surprised if this one ends quickly. Henderson via TKO in the 2nd.

UFC 112 Preview and Predictions

Tim — Sat, 10 Apr 2010 06:13:34 +0000

UFC 112: Invincible gets its title because it features two of the greatest and most dominant champions in UFC history. Both lightweight champion B.J. Penn and middleweight champion Anderson Silva will enter the Octagon as prohibitive favorites to continue their reign atop their respective divisions. The card is also significant because it takes place in Abu Dhabi, marking the company’s first foray into the Middle East.

Kendall Grove vs. Mark Munoz: Grove was struggling with the takedowns and striking of Jake Rosholt at UFC 106 before he caught Rosholt in a triangle choke and finished him late in the first round. The win improved Grove’s UFC record to 6-3 and his overall record to 11-6. At 6′6, Grove usually has a significant reach advantage over most of his opponents, but never has really used it to his advantage as much as he should. He also sports a pretty weak chin, making him a little hesitant to get into heavy exchanges. However, Grove has established himself as a middle-tier UFC middleweight who is well-rounded enough to be competitive in most fights. Munoz was a highly decorated wrestler coming out of Oklahoma State, where he won the 2001 national championship. He’s 7-1 in his MMA career and is 2-1 in the UFC with wins coming over Ryan Jensen and Nick Catone. He lost his UFC debut to Mark Hamill after he was knocked out by a vicious head kick. Munoz trains at Black House with the Nogueira brothers and other top UFC stars, so he’s definitely getting the training he’ll need to compete at the highest level. I don’t think his striking is good enough to win exchanges over Grove, though he does possess enough power to drop Grove with a good shot. Munoz could probably take down Grove at will, but as he showed against Rosholt, Grove is dangerous off his back as well. It’s a tough fight to pick because Munoz definitely has the ability to take Grove down repeatedly and grind out a decision. However, I’m following my gut and picking Grove. Grove has the ability to win the striking battle and can at least threaten off the floor. Grove via TKO in the 2nd.

Rafael dos Anjos vs. Terry Etim: After starting his UFC career with two straight defeats, dos Anjos has rebounded to win his past two fights over Kyle Bradley and Rob Emerson. He’s 12-4 in his MMA career. Dos Anjos has shown good wrestling ability and also solid striking, especially in the win over Emerson. Etim is on an impressive four-fight winning streak, most recently beating Shannon Gugerty at UFC 105 via submission. Etim has shown both good striking as well as a good submissions in racking up a 14-2 career record. This is a pretty evenly matched fight, though I think Etim’s striking ability will win out. Etim via unanimous decision.

Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie: At UFC 60, Matt Hughes took on UFC legend Royce Gracie in a fight everyone knew wouldn’t be competitive. Hughes dispatched of Gracie in the first round. Now, almost four years later, Hughes will take on another Gracie, this time Royce’s cousin Renzo. Hughes has clearly lost a step from when he was the dominant welterweight champion of the world. Between November, 2001- September, 2006, Hughes won the welterweight title twice, defended the belt seven times and went 12-1 in the Octagon with the lone loss coming to B.J. Penn. After losing his title to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 65, Hughes has gone 2-2, with wins over Chris Lytle and Matt Serra and losses to GSP and Thiago Alves. He’s no longer at the top of the welterweight division, but he still has the ability to beat many other welterweights in the UFC. Gracie is 43 years old and hasn’t fought a MMA fight in over three years. Overall, Gracie is 13-6 in his MMA career, with wins over Frank Shamrock, Carlos Newton, and Pat Miletech. As with all the Gracie’s, Renzo’s main strength is his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but the rest of his game has numerous holes. His striking and takedown defense aren’t good enough to beat top level athletes in the UFC today. I don’t think Hughes will really have much of a problem in this one unless he completely overlooked this fight. He should be able to takedown Gracie at will, and will actually probably have the advantage in the sriking department too. I don’t think Gracie will pose much of a threat to Hughes off his back either. Hughes will move to 2-0 over the Gracie clan after this one. Hughes via TKO in the 2nd.

B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar: Penn is coming very close to cleaning out the entire lightweight division. After winning the title over Joe Stevenson at UFC 80, Penn has dominated Sean Sherk, Kenny Florian and Diego Sanchez. Edgar may be the last opponent for Penn in the lightweight division for awhile, as there has been much discussion of him moving up to welterweight after this fight. In his career, Penn is 15-5, with wins over Matt Hughes, Jens Pulver, Matt Serra and Takanori Gomi to go along with his recent victims. He’s a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, one of the best technical strikers in the division and boasts some of the best takedown defense in all of MMA. Meanwhile, Edgar is coming into this fight as a huge underdog. He won the title shot after getting three consecutive victories over Matt Veach, Sean Sherk and Hermes Franca, but lost to fellow top contender Gray Maynard via unanimous decision at UFC Fight Night 13. He’s a smaller lightweight, but comes from a wrestling background and is a solid technical striker. However, he doesn’t really bring any skills to the table that are better than Penn’s. Penn is a better striker and hits harder, he’s better off the floor, and his takedown defense is basically unbreakable. I can see Edgar hanging in this fight for awhile because he’s a pretty tough guy, but he doesn’t pose a serious threat to Penn. Penn via TKO in the 3rd.

Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia: The next title defense for Silva was scheduled to be against Vitor Belfort, but a shoulder injury has now shelved Belfort for awhile. Maia got the call to step in against Silva. Silva is perhaps the most dominant champion in UFC history. Since taking the middleweight title from Rich Franklin at UFC 64, Silva has defended the title five times, won another fight in a catchweight contest, and defeated two fighters (including a former champion) in the light heavyweight divsion. His overall record is 25-4. Silva’s striking and movement make other fighters look just plain silly, and he’s no slouch in the Brazilian Jiu Jitsu department either. Maia is one of the best grapplers in the division and is 12-1 in his MMA career. His lone loss came to Nate Marquardt at UFC 102, where he was knocked out in the first 30 seconds of the contest. Maia rebounded to defeat Dan Miller at UFC 109 via unanimous decision. Despite efforts to improve his striking, it remains Maia’s main weakness. That’s something you don’t want to have as a glaring weakness going into a fight with Silva. If Maia can somehow get the fight to the ground, especially if he is in top position, he has a chance to win. However, if the fight stays standing for any length of time, Silva will pick him apart. I’m banking on the latter. Silva via TKO in the 2nd.

Preliminary Card Predictions:

Phil Davis over Alexander Gustafsson via unanimous decision

Paul Taylor over John Gunderson via TKO in the 2nd

Rick Story over Nick Osipczak via unanimous decision

Brad Blackburn over DeMarques Johnson via TKO in the 1st

Matt Veach over Paul Kelly via unanimous decision

Jon Madsen over Mostapha Al Turk via TKO in the 2nd

UFC Fight Night 21 Quick Picks

Tim — Wed, 31 Mar 2010 18:43:11 +0000

Sorry for the brevity of this post, but I didn’t have a ton of time to work on today’s preview for UFC Fight Night 21. I didn’t want to leave you guys without any picks though, so here we go!

Main card:

Ross Pearson vs. Dennis Siver: Siver is on a four-fight win streak, but Pearson has impressed me since winning The Ultimate Fighter. His clinch game has been very solid and I expect him to use it to defeat Siver. Pearson via unanimous decision.

Nate Quarry vs. Jorge Rivera: Two 38-year olds will try to turn back the clock in this one. I think Quarry’s striking and tough chin will give him the edge here, along with his solid wrestling game. Quarry via TKO in the 2nd.

Stefan Struve vs. Roy Nelson: I’ve gone back and forth on this one. In the end, I’m going with Struve. He’s been putting on bulk and hopefully is learning to utilize his reach advantage better. To compete with the top heavyweights in the UFC, I think Nelson needs to head to a real gym instead of his living room. Not saying that Struve is a top heavyweight, but I see him beating Nelson here. Struve via unanimous decision.

Kenny Florian vs. Takanori Gomi: I think Florian is the 2nd best lightweight in the UFC, and maybe in the world. Add to that the troubles that Gomi has had recently and I’m banking on a dominant performance from Florian. Florian via TKO in the 2nd.

Preliminary card:

Rob Emerson over Nik Lentz via TKO in the 2nd
Gleison Tibau over Caol Uno via unanimous decision
Andre Winner over Rafaello Oliviera via TKO in the 1st
Ronnys Torres over Jacob Volkmann via submission in the 2nd.
Gerald Harris over Mario Miranda via unanimous decision
Jason High over Charlie Brenneman via unanimous decision
Yushin Okami over Lucio Linhares via unanimous decision