Can UFC 121 Become the Biggest UFC Pay-Per-View of All-Time?
The simple and most likely answer to this question is “no.” However, I think there are some reasons to believe that if certain factors are met, UFC 121 in October could become the biggest UFC Pay-Per-View of all-time, surpassing the 1.6 million buyrate for UFC 100.
The biggest factor in the equation is the biggest name in the sport, Brock Lesnar. Lesnar has turned into a bonafide PPV superstar, drawing an estimated 1.0-1.3 million buyrate for UFC 116 basically single-handedly. Shane Carwin was a threat to Lesnar’s title, but certainly didn’t do much to promote or hype the fight. The co-main event of the card was a fight between Yoshihiro Akiyama and Chris Leben. Akiyama is a pretty big draw overseas, but that likely didn’t translate into much of a buyrate bump here in North America. Leben is a fun fighter to watch, but certainly didn’t draw any buys by himself. It would have been interesting to see how many more PPV buys there would have been had Wanderlei Silva not had to withdraw from his scheduled fight with Akiyama due to an injury. It likely would have given the buyrate a decent bump.
However, that Lesnar was able to draw one of the top 3 buyrates in the company’s history single-handedly is an impressive feat. Lesnar also headlined UFC 100, which currently holds the top spot in UFC PPV buyrate history at 1.6 million. That card also featured Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves in a welterweight title fight, as well as Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping after the two were opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter.
The scheduled card for UFC 121 falls somewhere between the star-studded UFC 100 card and the star-challenged UFC 116 card. In addition to Lesnar taking on Cain Velasquez, Tito Ortiz is scheduled to return to the Octagon to face Matt Hamill. Ortiz was once one of the biggest draws in the UFC, but time, injuries and lack of performance have taken their toll on Ortiz’s star-power and drawing ability. His main-event fight with Forrest Griffin at UFC 106 only drew a reported 330,000 buys. Ortiz did coach the last season of The Ultimate Fighter , well most of it anyway, before he was replaced by Rich Franklin due to an injury. His name is still good enough for a slight bump in the buyrate, which is something that couldn’t be said for anyone else on the UFC 116 card.
Also on the scheduled card for UFC 121 is Jake Shields. Shields is the former middleweight champion of Strikeforce, but has never been known for being a flashy or extremely popular fighter. His presence on the card will most likely have little effect on the buyrate of UFC 121. However, the combination of a heavyweight title fight between Lesnar and Velasquez, plus Ortiz in the co-main event and an undercard that features Shields and Diego Sanchez (scheduled to fight Paulo Thiago on the main card) is a much stronger card on paper than the UFC 116 card.
Also, the challenger to Lesnar’s heavyweight title needs to be taken into account when talking about potential buyrates. Prior to UFC 116, Shane Carwin did little to really hype or sell the fight. He pretty much relied on people talking about his size similarity to Brock to help sell the fight, but his personality is pretty non-descript. Cain Velasquez isn’t known as a big talker either, but depending on how the UFC handles the build up to the fight, he can certainly become a huge help to the eventual buyrate.
Velasquez is proud of his Mexican heritage, and proudly sports a “Brown Pride” tattoo across his chest. It has become a somewhat controversial topic inside the MMA community. However, the Spanish speaking audience has always been a reliable audience for boxing and even professional wrestling, where Rey Mysterio Jr. was considered a decent draw as a headliner. The Latino audience has been somewhat slow to embrace MMA, but if the UFC can tap into that market with their pre-fight promotion of the event, it could be a big boost to the overall buyrate numbers.
In addition to the fighters on the card, there are other factors that will affect the final buyrate figures. First of all, the Lesnar/Velasquez fight has to live up to the hype. Many buys of UFC 116 were generated after the event itself, when word of Lesnar’s dramatic comeback started to spread to those who hadn’t yet seen the event. The Lesnar/Velasquez fight has to be intriguing enough to sell a good number of pay-per-views after the event initially airs.
In my opinion, the UFC also has to have a strong run of cards prior to UFC 121 to build momentum going into the event. UFC 114 is reported to have drawn about a million buys, and UFC 115 did a solid 500,000-600,000 buys with the Rich Franklin/Chuck Liddell main event. Those two pay-per-views built some momentum that carried over into UFC 116. The UFC is expecting good buyrates for the next two events. UFC 117 features a main event between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen, while UFC 118 features a rematch between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar for the lightweight title, as well as a fight between Randy Couture and former boxing champion James Toney that is sure to garner some publicity. However, UFC 119 in September lacks a huge buzz as a rematch between Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria serves as the night’s main-event. UFC 121 will get some free publicity the week before the event though, as UFC 120 is expected to air free on Spike on October 16th. Expect lots of promos for Lesnar/Velasquez during that free card.
Finally, the main fighters on the card (Lesnar, Velasquez, Ortiz) need to remain healthy. There are not many events that the UFC plans where at least a few fighters don’t drop out due to injuries prior to the fight. This is the part of the equation where luck will play a major role.
In the end, it comes down to Lesnar and the UFC. Lesnar seems to be becoming more and more popular everyday. The amount of press he got after his victory at UFC 116 almost guarantees that his next fight will draw nearly the same amount of pay-per-view buys regardless of opponent or the quality of other fighters on the card. Brock is the biggest star in the sport, and his presence on the card will account for the majority of Pay-Per-View sales, but Dana White and the UFC have to do an effective job of marketing not only Lesnar, but also Velasquez as a credible challenger (which he is) to make the event even bigger. The opportunity is there for this event to become the biggest UFC pay-per-view of all-time. It’s now up to the fighters, the marketing and a little bit of luck to make it turn out that way.
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