UFC on Fox 2: Preview and Predictions
As important as the first UFC on Fox event was to the UFC, the second may be even moreso. This will be the first network event under the actual contract (the first was explained as a special “bonus”), and will feature three fights instead of only one. And while this event won’t have a title fight as the first event did, it will showcase the format that the UFC as well as Fox Sports will use going forward.
Demian Maia vs. Chris Weidman: Weidman is one of the best middleweight prospects around, and has showcased that promised as he’s opened his UFC career with three straight wins. Weidman is filling in on short notice for Mark Munoz, who was scheduled to face Chael Sonnen in the co-main event. An injury forced him off the card, and Michael Bisping was bumped up to face Sonnen. In need of an opponent for Maia, the UFC turned to Weidman who is being rewarded with a tremendous opportunity so early in his career. Maia is one of the top middleweights in the world, and has an impressive 9-3 record in the UFC. In his last fight, Maia won a unanimous decision over Jorge Rivera at UFC 136. Both of these guys like to take the fight to the ground, but for different reasons. Weidman was a very successful collegiate wrestler, earning All-American honors twice while attending Hofstra. Maia is simply one of the best Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practicioners in the sport. He’s won five of his fights in the UFC via submission. However, he is also a vastily underrated wrestler. Those takedown skills enable him to utilize his great BJJ skills. Maia’s striking is also improved over the level he was at earlier in his career. He isn’t necessarily a knockout threat, but has at least improved enough to round out his overall game. Weidman is also picking up submissions very quickly under the tuteledge of Matt Serra, and has submitted his last two opponents. He won’t want to play that game too much with Maia however, and will likely be content maintaining position on top and punishing Maia with ground n’ pound. This is a very interesting fight, and could really vault Weidman up the rankings. For Maia, it’s a very low reward fight. Weidman doesn’t have great name recognition, so a win won’t help Maia as much as it will Weidman. However, with the fight being on short notice for Weidman, I’m going with Maia. He’s simply too dangerous on the ground, and his striking has improved enough to at least make him a threat. Maia via unanimous decision.
Michael Bisping vs. Chael Sonnen: Bisping took this fight on short notice after preparing for Maia, and UFC President Dana White has said that the winner will receive a title shot against UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva. After pushing Silva to the brink in their first encounter, Sonnen is itching for a chance to take on Silva again. For the UFC, either fight would be a win. The Sonnen/Silva fight would do great PPV business, while a Bisping/Silva fight would help the UFC’s continued expansion into Europe. Bisping came off coaching on The Ultimate Fighter 14 and beat opposing coach Jason “Mayhem” Miller via TKO at the finale. He’s won his past four fights, and is an impressive 12-3 in the UFC. Sonnen is widely considered the number two middleweight in the world. He was suspended after the Silva fight due to testing positive for testosterone in the pre-fight drug test, but came back to dominate Brian Stann at UFC 136. He took Stann down at will and was able to advance position until finally choking out Stann in the second round. Prior to earning the shot at Silva, Sonnen rolled through Dan Miller, Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt in successive fights. Sonnen’s gameplan is no secret. He’s one of the most accomplished wrestlers in all of MMA, and he will look to take this fight to the ground early and often. Bisping meanwhile, would prefer to keep this fight standing. Bisping has a very underrated ground game as well as solid takedown defense. However, Sonnen can basically take down any fighter in the middleweight division, so that shouldn’t prevent much of an issue in this contest. He will not be able to advance position as easily on Bisping as he was able to do against Stann however. In the standup game, Bisping has the clear edge. He prefers volume over power, and the style has been very successful for him in the past. Sonnen showed better striking in the fight against Silva, but still would prefer to make this a grappling contest. It’s a close fight, so I’m going with the dominant individual skill in this fight. In this case, it’s Sonnen’s wrestling. Sonnen via unanimous decision.
Rashad Evans vs. Phil Davis: The stakes are high for Rashad Evans in this fight. A win (and getting out injury-free) would earn him a long-awaited title shot against Jon Jones. A loss to the up and coming, but still somewhat unknown Davis would drop him back in line behind a host of other challengers. For Davis, this could be a career-making fight. He’s already one of the top rising stars in the light heavyweight division, but a win over the former title-holder will put him on the fast-track to stardom. The back-and-forth between these two at the pre-fight press conference was entertaining, and it will be fun to see if they can translate that same energy into the cage on Saturday night.
Evans is one of the top fighters in the light heavyweight division. After earning the title by stopping Forrest Griffin at UFC 92, he dropped it to Lyoto Machida at UFC 98. Since that loss, Evans has posted three straight wins over Thiago Silva, “Rampage” Jackson and most recently, Tito Ortiz. However, injuries and bad timing have prevented him from cashing in on promised title shots. Overall, the former title-holder is 16-1-1 in his MMA career, and is 11-1-1 in the UFC. Davis was a four-time All-American wrestler at Penn State University, winning the championship in 2008. Since entering MMA in 2008, Davis has been virtually unstoppable, rattling off nine straight wins to open his career, including his first five fights in the UFC. He was part of the main-event in his last fight, as he defeated Antonio Rogerio Nogueira at UFC Fight Night 24. Though primarily a wrestler, his atheltic ability and long reach has earned him comparisions to Jon Jones. Davis is nowhere close to that level as of yet, and his main weakness is his striking. He mixes in punches and kicks, but the overall package isn’t quite refined as of yet. His submission game is continually improving, and his sheer strength makes it dangerous for other fighters to get into a grappling contest with him. Where Evans will have the advantage in this one is his striking. Though he will be at a disadvantage in the reach department, he is quicker and more technical in his striking. Also, while Evans was nowhere near the caliber of wrestler that Davis was in college, his wrestling skills have translated well to MMA. I think this will be an extremely interesting contest, and will show how far Phil Davis has come in his short career thus far. However, Evans has the striking skills needed to keep Davis off-balance, and is solid enough in his wrestling background to keep himself out of too much trouble on the ground. Evans via unanimous decision.
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UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem Preview and Predictions
UFC 141 features one of the biggest main events in UFC history, literally. Former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar takes on the Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem in a fight that will determine the next challenger to Junior dos Santos’ UFC heavyweight title.
Jim Hettes vs. Nam Phan: The solid veteran Nam Phan will take on the BJJ upstart in Jim Hettes in a featherweight fight. Phan is 17-9 in his career, and holds a 1-2 UFC record (which really should be 2-1). In his last fight at UFC 136, Phan got revenge against Leonard Garcia after he was robbed of a victory in their first fight, this time beating him by unanimous decision. The 24-year old Hettes is undefeated in his career at 9-0, and is 1-0 in the UFC. He defeated Alex Caceres at UFC on Versus 5 via submission in his debut. This is a pretty even fight on paper, with Phan having the striking advantage and Hettes having an advantage on the canvas with his Brazilian Jiu Jitsu skills. However, Phan is also pretty talented on the ground. Hettes is effective with the way he chains submissions together and transitions from one to another, but it will be difficult to submit Phan. Phan also has a huge overall experience advantage. It’s that advantage that should keep him calm in rough situations, of which there will likely be a few in this fight. Phan via unanimous decision.
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Vladimir Matyushenko: A battle of light heavyweights at two vastly different points of their careers in this one. The 24-year old Gustafsson is 12-1 overall in his career and holds a 4-1 record in the UFC. His lone loss was to Phil Davis at UFC 112. After that loss to Davis, Gustafsson took Davis up on an offer to train together. Since they started training together, Gustafsson has looked tremendous. He beat both James te Huna and Cyrille Diabate via submission and beat Matt Hamill into retirement at UFC 133. His offensive and defensive wrestling continue to improve, and he’ll have a big advantage in the striking department. Matyushenko has been around for a long time, and holds a 26-5 overall record, and is 7-3 in the UFC. Since returning to the promotion in 2009, Matyushenko has gone 4-1, with the lone loss coming at the hands (and elbows) of current UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones. He comes from a wrestling/grappling background, but showcased some largely unseen power at UFC 129, where he knocked out Jason Brilz in the first minute. That feat will be hard to duplicate against Gustafsson. His best and perhaps only chance in this one is to make this a grinder, wearing Gustafsson down with takedowns and ground n’ pound. He’s at a severe disadvantage on his feet to Gustafsson. That’s precisely why Gustafsson will win this fight. His wrestling is improving enough to keep him standing, and his striking is vastly superior. Matyushenko is a tough veteran, but the younger fighter will win out in this on. Gustafsson via TKO in the 2nd.
Jon Fitch vs. Johny Hendricks: Jon Fitch will try and make another climb to a title shot after a shoulder injury washed out much of his 2011 campaign. To do so he’ll have to get through a welterweight with one of the best wrestling pedigrees in MMA, Johny Hendricks. After getting a draw against B.J. Penn at UFC 127, Fitch injured his shoulder while training for the rematch and required surgery. His UFC record of 13-1-1 speaks for itself, as does his 23-3-1 overall record. He’s one of the top welterweights in the world, but hasn’t been able to reach the very top of the mountain due to the dominance of Georges St. Pierre. Hendricks won back-to-back national titles at Oklahoma State, but hasn’t been able to transition his wrestling prowess as quickly as some other former collegiate standouts. However, Hendricks is 6-1 in his UFC career, with his only loss coming to Rick Story. He’s beaten the likes of Charlie Brenneman and Mike Pierce, and should prove to be a tough challenge for Fitch. His striking has improved drastically since entering the UFC, and it may be that aspect of his game that will worry Fitch the most. Even though Hendricks has the better collegiate wrestling chops, Fitch has been much better at using wrestling in MMA. Fitch basically takes what Hendricks does, but does it even better. That’s not to say that Hendricks has no chance here. He continues to improve and there will likely come a time when the light clicks on for him and he becomes a force in the welterweight division. Is that time already here? Not likely, but not impossible. Shoulder injuries can be tricky, especially with fighters that rely on their wrestling, so it’s impossible to know if Fitch will come into this fight like his old self. I will guess that he will be close enough to it to be able to defeat Hendricks here, though it may not be without a few scares along the way. Fitch via decision.
Donald Cerrone vs. Nate Diaz: This is an important fight in the lightweight division, as both guys are fighting at the highest level in their careers. Cerrone has been dominant since coming over to the UFC, winning all four of his fights, and all have come in this calendar year. In his last fight, he blasted contender Dennis Siver at UFC 137. Overall, Cerrone is 17-3 in his MMA career. After he struggled at welterweight, Diaz decided to drop back down to lightweight before his UFC 135 fight against Takanori Gomi. Against Gomi, Diaz looked as good as he ever has, dominating the striking battle and eventually earning the submission victory. The winner of this fight will be in a good position to make a title run in 2012. Cerrone should have the slight advantage while this fight is standing. Diaz is probably the better technical offensive boxer, but his shoddy defense should leave at least a few openings for Cerrone to capitalize on. Cerrone’s striking is also more diverse and well-rounded than Diaz’s. On the ground, Diaz has the advantage, but Cerrone is very strong in this area as well. Diaz will need to be wary of leaving any openings for Cerrone there as well. This is a pretty even fight, and one that I’m really looking forward to watching. Both guys come forward at all times, and even their ground battles should be exciting. In the end, Cerrone’s superior and more diverse striking will earn him the victory in what will likely be the most exciting fight on the card. Cerrone via unanimous decision.
Brock Lesnar vs. Alistair Overeem: In the main event, two of the division’s biggest and strongest men will battle for a shot at Junior Dos Santos and his heavyweight title. Lesnar has been out of action since he was thrashed by Cain Velasquez in October 2010. A return of his diverticulitis thwarted his planned comeback fight against Junior Dos Santos, who went on to win the heavyweight title at UFC on Fox 1. He’s 5-2 in his short MMA career, with wins over Frank Mir, Heath Herring, Randy Couture and Shane Carwin. However, he was somewhat exposed in the win over Carwin, as it became apparent he didn’t react very well to being hit. He was able to hang in there against Carwin long enough to get a 2nd round submission, but wasn’t so fortunate in his fight against Velasquez. Will 14 months away from the cage help him solve that issue? Seems unlikely. Overeem will be making his UFC debut after a long career overseas, both in MMA and kickboxing. He is 35-11 in his MMA career that began with him at light heavyweight. His last fight was a somewhat lackluster victory over a very tentative Fabricio Werdum, where he defended his Strikeforce heavyweight championship. Looking at Overeem’s MMA record over the past few years, you’ll be hard-pressed to find a decent heavyweight on the list besides Werdum. It’s somewhat confusing how he’s gained the dominating reputation he has when he really hasn’t fought anyone of note besides Werdum since 2008.
There’s no doubt that Overeem will have a huge striking advantage over Lesnar in this one. Lesnar is still very stiff and mechanical in his striking, and as I mentioned earlier, doesn’t react very well to getting hit. Overeem hits like a train and is very technical to boot. He does leave some openings with his defense, but it will be hard for Lesnar to exploit those given his lack of striking experience. Where Lesnar has the huge advantage is in his wrestling. Overeem’s takedown defense is hit or miss, and his cardio leaves a lot to be desired. If Lesnar can score an early takedown, he can batter and wear down Overeem and perhaps make his striking a little less lethal in the later rounds (if it gets that far). Lesnar’s gas tank has always been somewhat of a question, and 14 months away from the cage will not help that either, but I still think he’ll have more in the tank than Overeem will.
While both have been dominating at times during their careers, both fighters also have their own fair share of weaknesses which make this fight a tough one to pick. It’s hard to gauge where Lesnar will be physically after the long layoff and the health problems, and with Overeem’s competition, it’s hard to judge just where he fits in the heavyweight picture. Either way, the winner of the fight will be on their way to a title shot, and I think that man will be Lesnar. His wrestling can neutralize and wear down Overeem if he can connect on an early takedown attempt. Wading through Overeem’s strikes will not be an easy feat, but if Overeem fights as tentative as he did against Werdum, I think Lesnar takes this fight easier than many think. If Overeem is more aggressive…well this will be a helluva fight! Lesnar via TKO in the 2nd.
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UFC 140: Jones vs. Machida Preview and Predictions
The current “invincible” light heavyweight champion Jon Jones takes on the former “invincible” light heavyweight champion Lyoto Machida in one of the more intriguing fights of the year. Additionally, both Nogueira brothers are featured on the main card. Rodrigo takes on Frank Mir in a rematch of their fight at UFC 92, while Rogerio takes on Tito Ortiz.
Chan Sung Jung vs. Mark Hominick: We last saw Hominick fighting Jose Aldo at UFC 129. After being basically dominated for four rounds, he came on very strong in the fifth, but lost the unanimous decision. Hominick is 20-9 in his career, with a 6-3 UFC/WEC record. Jung last fought back in March at UFC Fight Night 24 where he submitted Leonard Garcia in a rematch of their entertaining first encounter at WEC 48. The win was Jung’s first under the Zuffa banner. This should be an entertaining affair with Hominick’s kickboxing skills and Jung’s willingness and ability to take punches. Hominick should be able to control the majority of this fight and eventually finish Jung. Hominick via TKO in the 2nd.
Claude Patrick vs. Brian Ebersole: Two guys that have rather quietly put together a combined 5-0 record in their UFC runs collide in this welterweight matchup. Ebersole is a veteran of over 60 MMA fights, and after finally making it to the UFC, has won his first two fights. In his debut, he was the heavy underdog to Chris Lytle at UFC 127. He controlled the entire fight en route to a unanimous decision victory. He followed that win up with a first round TKO victory over fellow veteran Dennis Hallman at UFC 133. Patrick made his UFC debut at UFC 115, beating Ricardo Funch via submission in the 2nd round. He’s won back-to-back unanimous decisions over James Wilks and Daniel Roberts since. Ebersole is an unorthodox, but not extremely skilled striker. He was able to keep Chris Lytle off balance for the majority of their fight. Patrick is decent on his feet, as well, and outstruck Roberts in their matchup at UFC 129. On the ground, both fighters are pretty solid. Ebersole has a wrestling background, while Patrick uses takedowns to set up submission attempts. Ebersole has fought the tougher competition and has been more impressive, so he gets the nod here in a relatively even fight. Ebersole via unanimous decision.
Tito Ortiz vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira: Ortiz reinvigorated his career with an upset win over Ryan Bader at 132. He took a fight with Rashad Evans on short notice at UFC 133, and was finished by Evans in the 2nd round. The loss dropped Ortiz’s record to 1-5-1 in his last seven fights. He’s talked about retirement quite a bit leading up to this fight, and if he loses here, it’s a strong possibility it will be the last time we see Ortiz competing in the Octagon. Nogueira had a long and successful career with PRIDE, and began his UFC career with back-to-back wins over Luiz Cane and Jason Brilz. However, he’s dropped his past two fights to Ryan Bader and Phil Davis. Ortiz will try to follow similar gameplans that Bader and Davis had, using their wrestling to control Nogueira. Nogueira will have the advantage over Ortiz when this fight is standing, as he has crisper boxing, though Ortiz may have a slight power advantage. On the ground, Nogueira is dangerous, but Ortiz still possesses very good ground n’ pound. It all comes down to how Nogueira defends Ortiz’s takedowns. If he can stop them, the fight is his. If he can’t, Ortiz could pound him out. I think Ortiz will execute enough takedowns and do enough damage with them to win the fight. Ortiz via decision.
Frank Mir vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: Mir dominated Nogueira in their first matchup at UFC 92. Nogueira looked old and slow, while Mir’s standup looked the best it ever had. It was revealed after the fight that Nogueira was battling a staph infection, but how much that played into the result is debateable. Mir has won his past two fights, knocking out Mirko Cro Cop in an awful fight, and dominating Roy Nelson in a decisionvictory at UFC 130. Nogueira fought in his home country of Brazil at UFC 134, and though he came into the fight looking in poor shape after a long layoff, he knocked out Brendan Schaub in the first round. That win hasn’t convinced me that Nogueira is back however. I think Mir was the better fighter before their fight at UFC 92 (and that thought earned me some money at the time), and I still think he is the better fighter, probably by a wider margin now. Mir via TKO in the 2nd.
Jon Jones vs. Lyoto Machida: After beginning his MMA career 15-0 and winning the UFC’s light heavyweight championship by knocking out Rashad Evans at UFC 98, many thought that he would hold that title for a long, long time. However, in his first title defense against Shogun Rua, some weaknesses were exposed despite him winning a highly controversial decision. In the rematch, Rua wasted little time knocking out Machida, and destroyed the myth of the champ being unbeatable. Machida struggled to get on track in his next fight against Quinton “Rampage” Jackson, and though he came on strong in the 3rd round, it was too late as he dropped a decision. However, Machida responded at UFC 129, knocking out Randy Couture with a devastating front kick. After injuries to Jones and Evans nixed their planned title fight, Machida was dubbed as the replacement. Jones has replaced Machida as the “invincible” champion. He’s basically run through all 15 opponents (though Matt Hamill technically has a “victory” due to a Jones DQ), and has only gone to a decision in two fights. After defeating Rua to win the title at UFC 128, Jones took on Jackson at UFC 135. Jones dominated the former champ for three rounds before finishing him in the fourth. His size/strength/athleticism combo is tough for anyone to deal with in the weight class. Machida’s unorthodox style could make this an interesting matchup however. Machida has solid takedown defense, and is very patient with his striking. He likes to counter, but Jones’ reach will make that difficult, as he can wade in with his strikes without ever really getting in striking range for Machida. We’ve never really seen Jones tested, hurt, or in any kind of trouble throughout his UFC career, so it will be interesting to see how he reacts if he is either taken down or hurt by Machida. Jones is the favorite for a reason, but this should be an interesting test. In the end, I think Jones will hurt Machida and eventually finish him off. Jones via TKO in the 3rd.
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Evans on Jones: “If pushed, he will quit. I see his heart.”
As former UFC light heavyweight champion Rashad Evans prepares for his upcoming main event fight against Phil Davis at UFC on Fox 2, it’s clear he still has his sights firmly set on the man currently holding the title, Jon Jones.
There has been no love lost between the two former teammates, and on a Chicago radio appearance Tuesday night on WSCR 670 AM, Evans reacted with some of his strongest words to date about “Bones.”
After host Laurence Holmes brought up Jones’ recent quote about Evans having no chin, Evans responded:
You know he’s just a young dude that thinks he can whup me, but he knows what happened in training, he knows what happened, and obviously he’s not trying…he’s not in any hurry to fight me or it would have happened already.
After being pressed by Holmes to expand on what took place in their training together, Evans continued:
There was a couple times where, you know, I was able to pretty much just do what I want. He was my little brother, you know? Sometimes he was my son. He was underneath me. And that’s the truth of the matter. One time we were training and he begged me to get up off of him and stop smashing him up because he couldn’t get up…And I told him at the time I said “If you quit now, you’re going to quit in a fight,” and I made him work his way back up…That’s his heart. If pushed, he will quit. And I know how to make him quit and he knows that. I see his heart.
Holmes asked Evans if he’d look forward to a title fight with Jones if he can defeat Davis.
Yeah, I would love it, I would love it because I would love nothing more than to put him in his place, and just let him know that [he] didn’t respect the process of how things should be done. He’s very disrespectful so he needs to learn from it
The entire interview with Evans on 670AM the Score in Chicago can be found here in hour three of the podcast.
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UFC 139 Preview and Predictions
Lost amidst all the buzz for the UFC on Fox event that took place last weekend, UFC 139 features one of the best and deepest cards of the year. In the main event, Dan Henderson makes his return to the UFC and takes on “Shogun” Rua, as they both try and get in position for a future light heavyweight title shot. The co-main event features Wanderlei Silva battling former Strikeforce fighter Cung Le. Also, Urijah Faber takes on Brian Bowles in a battle for a possible shot at Dominick Cruz’s bantamweight title.
Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury: After three straight losses to Jon Jones, Mark Coleman and Krzysztof Soszynski, many figured the end was near for Bonnar. Well, it still may be, but back-to-back wins over Soszynski (in the rematch) and Igor Pokrajac have kept his career alive. Best known for being a participant in the first season of The Ultimate Fighter as well as in the finals against Forrest Griffin, Bonnar is 7-6 overall in his UFC career. Kingsbury is also a veteran of The Ultimate Fighter, as he competed on the 8th season of the show. Kingsbury lost during the show but still earned a spot on the undercard of the Finale, where he lost to Tom Lawlor. Since then, Kingsbury has won four straight fights. Kingsbury is the stronger wrestler of the two, but Bonnar is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and does well to avoid bad positions on the ground. Bonnar holds an advantage in striking, though Kingsbury has more power and a strong clinch game. I’m banking on Bonnar keeping this fight standing and using his superior technical striking to control the fight. Bonnar via unanimous decision.
Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story: Kampmann should have won the decision in his last fight against Diego Sanchez, but ended up dropping the unanimous decision. The loss was Kampmann’s second straight, so he’s in need of a victory here. Prior to those losses, Kampmann was a fringe contender for the welterweight title. He was booked to fight Mike Swick at UFC 103 for a shot at the title, but when Swick went down with an injury, Kampmann accepted a fight against Paul Daley. Daley finished him in the first, and Kampmann has been trying to work his way back up since. Story dropped his first UFC fight to John Hathaway at UFC 99, but rattled off five straight wins to earn a shot at former welterweight title challenger Thiago Alves. Story came away from that fight with an upset victory, and seemed poised to make a run at a title shot. Story stepped in on short notice to take on Nate Marquardt in the main event of UFC on Versus 4, but Marquardt wasn’t approved to fight by the athletic commission. Story accepted a fight against Marquardt’s replacement, Charlie Brenneman, and lost via unanimous decision. This fight is important for Story to regain some of his lost momentum. Kampmann is a solid striker with an underrated ground game. He outstruck Sanchez for the majority of their fight, but doesn’t have huge power. Story is the stronger of the two fighters, and will have the wrestling advantage as well. Kampmann also showed impressive takedown defense in the Sanchez fight, and he’ll need to show more of the same here. Story isn’t afraid to mix it up on his feet either, making for a pretty intriguing fight. Tough fight to call, but I’ll go with Kampmann controlling the striking action and fending off enough takedowns to take the decision. Kampmann via decision.
Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles: This fight will go a long way to determining who will get the next shot at the bantamweight title. Faber fought the champion Dominick Cruz in his last fight at UFC 132, where he dropped a decision in a very close and exciting fight. Faber was the WEC’s most popular fighter and had an impressive run as the featherweight champion. After dropping his title to Mike Brown and losing to Brown again in the rematch, Faber made one last run at the title facing Jose Aldo at WEC 48. After Aldo dominated him over five rounds, Faber determined he needed to drop to bantamweight to get another shot at the gold. To earn that shot at the title, he’ll have to defeat another former champion in Brian Bowles. Bowles won the WEC bantamweight title over Miguel Torres at WEC 42, but dropped the belt to Cruz at WEC 47. Since that fight, Bowles has beaten Damacio Page and Takeya Mizugaki to get himself back into contention. This will be Bowles’ third fight in 2011 after only fighting once each in 2010 and 2009. Bowles is extremely powerful, although he has broken his right hand twice in recent fights. Faber’s main advantage in this fight is his wrestling. His speed and strength advantage should enable him to score a few takedowns and help him avoid big shots from Bowles. To win, Bowles will have to keep this fight standing and land some power shots. I’m not sure if he’ll be standing long enough to do that. Faber should be able to use his wrestling to control the fight, and is competent enough in his stand-up to land a few good shots there as well. Faber via unanimous decision.
Cung Le vs. Wanderlei Silva: It’s actually somewhat sad that this is what Wandy is reduced to. It’s not often that you find a guy who’s dropped six of his past eight fights along with having a chin that can’t seem to handle any even semi-powerful shots getting a slot in the co-main event, but here Silva is, and he actually has a pretty good shot of winning this fight against Cung Le. Le, the former Strikeforce sensation, is coming off a KO win over Scott Smith in a rematch of their enounter in 2009. He’s 7-1 in his MMA career, with none of his fights making it to a decision. I don’t think this fight will be his first to get there. Silva’s style hasn’t changed much since his PRIDE days. He still comes in with reckless abandon, firing shots at will. The difference is that his chin can no longer handle the return fire. Le’s strength lies more with his kicks than with his punches, which should help Silva stay upright. If Silva can close the distance and clinch with Le, he should be able to finish this fight. It’s hard to put a whole lot of faith into Silva at this point, but hopefully he gets a win here and decides to hang it up. Silva via 2nd round TKO.
Dan Henderson vs. Mauricio “Shogun” Rua: Two of the greats from the PRIDE era will squard off in this contest. Dan Henderson had a rebirth in Strikeforce in the light heavyweight divsion. After being dominated by Jake Shields in his debut with the promotion, Henderson moved back up to light heavyweight and proceeded to knock out Babalu Sobral to earn the title shot against Rafael Cavalcante. Henderson defeated Cavalcante via TKO in the 3rd. Henderson next fought Fedor Emelianenko in a bout contested at heavyweight, and won via first round TKO. After the win, Henderson set his sights to return to the UFC, and was hoping for an immediate title shot in either the middleweight or light heavyweight division. Instead, he is matched with former light heavyweight champion Shogun Rua. Rua lost the title to Jon Jones at UFC 128, but rebounded to blast Forrest Griffin at UFC 134. No immediate title shot will go to the winner of this fight, but whoever wins will be much closer to getting one.
Despite his wrestling credentials, Henderson tends to concentrate more on landing big shots on his feet then on landing takedowns. It’s been very successful for him in recent fights, but I think he does overlook his wrestling skills a little too often. Shogun is mainly a striker himself, but also is a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and used that quite often earlier in his career. Despite their skills in other facets of the game, I expect that these two will keep the fight standing for the most part. Henderson is very one-dimensional, basically looking to land his right hand at any opportunity. Shogun is much more patient than he was earlier in his career, but has a much more well-rounded striking arsenal. Henderson’s one-track mind was OK when he was fighting Sobral and Cavalcante, but I can’t imagine it will be as successful against Shogun. I think Shogun’s best days are behind him, but still expect him to be able to avoid the Henderson right hand, and some significant shots of his own. If the fight drags on to the later rounds, Henderson may be the fresher of the two men, but by then it may be too late to win the decision. Shogun via unanimous decision.
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UFC on Fox: Velasquez vs. Dos Santos Preview
The UFC’s first venture on network TV features only one fight, but it is a big one. Cain Velasquez will defend his heavyweight championship against Junior Dos Santos. There’s also a very important fight in the co-main event that will not be televised, as Ben Henderson and Clay Guida battle for a potential lightweight title shot against champion Frankie Edgar.
Ben Henderson vs. Clay Guida: Henderson lost his WEC lightweight championship to Anthony Pettis at WEC 53. The WEC soon merged with the UFC, and Henderson was given tough competition right off the bat. In his first UFC fight, Henderson fought Mark Bocek and defeated him via unanimous decision. Henderson’s next fight was against Jim Miller, who was on a seven fight winning streak and on the cusp of a title shot. Henderson dominated Miller over three rounds, winning the unanimous decision. Guida has also been on quite a roll, winning his past four fights, including wins over Takinori Gomi and Anthony Pettis.
In a way, Guida reminds me a lot of the guy that Henderson just beat, Jim Miller. Both have pretty solid all-around games, with Miller probably having a bit better striking and better Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Guida has worked hard over the past few years with Greg Jackson to improve his striking and make it more fluid. He has improved in that area, but still not enough in my opinion. His wrestling game is good, but mainly due to his persistance instead of having immense skill. Henderson has shown very good takedown defense in his career, and seems to be nearly impossible to hold down or submit. On the feet, Henderson isn’t a world beater, but he has the advantage over Guida there as well. All signs point to a Henderson victory to me. Guida just doesn’t do anything better than Henderson does, and Henderson isn’t going to wear down from Guida’s persistant attacks. Guida will probably go the distance, but it will be in a losing effort. Henderson via unanimous decision.
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos: Obviously, this is one of the biggest fights in UFC history. As the only fight being shown on the UFC’s network television debut, both fighters are under an enormous amount of pressure to perform and create an exciting fight. Dos Santos has won his first seven UFC fights to earn this title shot. He began his UFC career with an upset KO win over Fabricio Werdum and hasn’t looked back, rattling off wins against Stefan Struve, Mirko Cro Cop, Gilbert Yvel, Gabriel Gonzaga, Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin. He hasn’t really been severely threatened in any of those contests, making his run even more impressive. Velasquez is only nine fights into his MMA career, making the fact that he is holding the UFC title even more impressive. He only fought twice outside the UFC before taking on Brad Morris at UFC 83. He took out Morris via 1st round TKO, and wasn’t really tested until his fourth UFC fight, against Cheick Kongo. Kongo rocked Velasquez early in each of the three rounds, wobbling him several times. Velasquez was able to score takedowns each time, and ended up getting the unanimous decision victory. Back-to-back wins over Ben Rothwell and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira earned him the title shot against Brock Lesnar at UFC 121. He withstood an early onslaught by Lesnar, and battered him badly standing before getting the TKO victory in the first round. It was a very impressive performance for Velasquez, but unfortunately, he suffered a rotator cuff injury during the fight that has kept him out of action since.
The shoulder injury is one of the main questions going into this fight. He had surgery on it, but it’s hard to determine if Velasquez will be hampered by it somewhat throughout the rest of his career. Shoulder injuries are very difficult to predict for someone who will continue to make repetitive actions (punching) with it. Along with the surgery itself, the effect that the long layoff will have on Velasquez is unknown. Dos Santos fought twice since Velasquez was out, beating Roy Nelson and Shane Carwin in three-round fights, so he should be better prepared to go the distance in this one than the fighter who’s been out of action for almost a full year.
In the standup, I think Dos Santos has the advantage. Velasquez has made great strides during his career in this area, but I think Dos Santos might have the best boxing in the entire UFC heavyweight division. Neither man will have a significant reach advantage, but Dos Santos will have the speed advantage. It’s hard not to look back on Velasquez’s fight with Kongo and think that Dos Santos will be able to exploit the same hole in his defense and connect early and often. Velasquez’s chin was solid enough to get him through that fight, but can he take some of the same shots from Dos Santos? I’m not so sure.
Velasquez obviously has the wrestling advantage in this fight. One thing we really haven’t seen in Dos Santos’ career is his ability to fight off his back. He’s shown good takedown defense in his career, but hasn’t gone against someone who is as good of a wrestler as Velasquez. Dos Santos does train with the Nogueiras, so you would think that he has at least some idea of what to do off of his back. The fight with Lesnar showed that Velasquez has made strides in his ground n’ pound game, so if he can get Dos Santos down to the ground, it’s hard to predict exactly what will happen. You have to think that Velasquez’s game plan is to find out what kind of fighter Dos Santos is off of his back.
I think that Dos Santos will have to fend off some takedown attempts early, and may have to survive some of Velasquez’s ground assault, but I think the majority of this fight will take place standing. This is where Dos Santos has the advantage, and I expect him to pick apart Velasquez en route to a victory. Dos Santos via TKO in the 3rd.
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UFC 137 Preview and Predictions
UFC 137 has had numerous changes to the top of the card. Originally, the card was slated to feature a welterweight title fight between Georges St. Pierre and Nick Diaz with a co-main event of Carlos Condit vs. B.J. Penn. After Diaz missed some media obligations to promote the fight, UFC president Dana White removed Diaz from the main event and bumped Condit up to the main event. A short time later, Diaz was re-inserted on the card, this time set to face Penn in the co-main event. Finally, a recent knee injury to St. Pierre scrapped his fight all together, and bumped Diaz and Penn into the main event. Even with all the changes, the card is relatively deep, and should provide a little clarity in the welterweight division.
Jeff Curran vs. Scott Jorgensen: Curran is making his return to the UFC after a 7 year absence. During that time, Curran fought for numerous regional organizations as well as the WEC, where he dropped four straight fights after winning his first. In fairness to Curran, those losses were to Urijah Faber, Mike Brown, Joseph Benavidez and Takeya Mizugaki, some of the best the featherweight class had to offer. Now, Curran will be fighting at Bantamweight against one of the best in the world in Jorgensen. Curran is 33-13 in his long career. Jorgensen is coming off of a KO victory over Ken Stone at The Ultimate Fighter 13 finale and is 8-3 in his WEC/UFC career. Jorgensen is the better wrestler in this contest and also has the edge standing. Curran still has some dangerous Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Jorgensen use his wrestling defensively to keep this fight standing a good deal. Jorgensen is the better fighter right now, and should get the victory. Jorgensen via unanimous decision.
Hatsu Hioki vs. George Roop: One of the top featherweights in the world, Hatsu Hioki will be making his UFC debut against George Roop. Hioki has won his past four fights with his last loss coming at the hands of Michihiro Omigawa at Sengoku 11 in a split-decision. Roop has had an up-and-down career with the UFC and WEC. After beginning his UFC career at lightweight, Roop dropped to featherweight after losing to George Sotiropoulos at UFC 101. The drop did not pay off early, as Roop lost a unanimous decision to Eddie Wineland at WEC 46, and fought Leonard Garcia to a draw at WEC 47. A KO victory over Chan Sung Jung at WEC 51 gave Roop some momentum as the WEC folded into the UFC, however, a TKO loss to Mark Hominick at UFC Fight for the Troops 2 put him back in the losing column. Roop last fought at The Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale, and beat Josh Grispi via 3rd round KO. The 6′1 Roop causes some matchup problems for many featherweights due to his reach advantage, and he’ll have the reach advantage in this fight too, though it won’t be as large as it is against some fighters in the division. However, if Hioki has his way, the reach advantage won’t mean much, as he wants to get this fight down to the ground early where he has the advantage. Look for him to do just that. Hioki via submission in the 2nd.
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Roy Nelson: Not much needs to be said about Cro Cop. One of the best heavyweights in the world at one time, he’s a shell of his former self. He’s hesitant to pull the trigger and looks increasingly scared to get hit. It looks like his heart is not in fighting anymore, but he continues to keep coming back. He’s dropped his past two fights to Frank Mir and Brendan Schaub, and has lost three of his last five overall. Nelson has taken his weight a little more seriously than he has previously, and has apparently dropped some pounds. How many exactly is tough to tell, as he showed up at today’s weigh-ins in a fat suit. He weighed in officially at 252, and considering he weighed in at 260 in his last fight, it’s an improvement. His last fight was a unanimous decision loss to Frank Mir at UFC 130 in a very lackluster fight. Nelson is not an elite heavyweight, but he’s solid enough to beat a reeling Cro Cop. There’s always the chance that Cro Cop finds some old magic and unleashes a head kick that KO’s Nelson, but the smart play is to bank on Nelson controlling the majority of the fight, both in the standup and certainly on the ground. Nelson via unanimous decision.
Matt Mitrione vs. Cheick Kongo: I won’t lie, Mitrione has progressed far quicker and much further than I ever thought possible after watching him on the 10th season of The Ultimate Fighter. He’s 5-0 in his UFC (and MMA) career, and has won four of those fights via TKO or KO. His last fight was a KO victory over Christian Morecraft at UFC on Versus 4. Taking on a fighter of Kongo’s caliber is a logical step up for Mitrione, who would and has admitted that he still has a lot to learn. Kongo has been a lower to mid-level heavyweight during his UFC career, going 9-4-1. He last fought at UFC on Versus 4, coming back from nearly getting knocked out to KO Pat Barry in a wild first round. Kongo is primarily known for his kickboxing, but is a decent wrestler with some vicious ground n’ pound when given the opportunity. I expect this fight to mainly take place standing, with Kongo perhaps looking to take it to the ground if he’s feeling pressured. It’s a big step up in compeition for Mitrione, but a step that I think he can certainly take. His striking has become a pretty solid weapon for him, and he’ll need it to continue to be so against Kongo. One x-factor to consider: Kongo is 36 years old. He seems to be on the decline, but it’s questionable just how far he has slipped. I’m thinking far enough to get beaten by Mitrione. Mitrione via TKO.
B.J. Penn vs. Nick Diaz: Both fighters are looking to get in line for a title shot against Georges St. Pierre soon, and after the fireworks from today’s weigh ins, this fight looks pretty intriguing. Penn is coming off majority draw with Jon Fitch at UFC 127 after knocking out Matt Hughes in the first round of their fight at UFC 123. Back-to-back losses to Frankie Edgar convinced Penn that his best chance at another title shot is through the welterweight division, but it will likely take Penn at least one more win after this to earn another shot at GSP. Diaz was the Strikeforce welterweight champion before vacating that title to take the title shot against St. Pierre. Due to Diaz missing some media obligations, he was pulled from the main event before he was placed against Penn in the co-main event. Now, he finds himself in the main event again.
Both fighters have similar strengths. Both are black belts in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu (though Penn is the better grappler), and both are solid boxers. Diaz will have the reach advantage. However, he tends to leave himself wide open while striking which Penn can definitely take advantage of if this fight is taking place on the feet. One thing I can’t get over is the level of competition that Diaz has ran off his streak against. He’s won 10 fights in a row, but none of his victories were over a legitimate top 10 opponent. Thomas Denny, Frank Shamrock, Scott Smith, KJ Noons, Evangelista Santos, Paul Daley? All solid fighters, but none at the level of Penn. He’s looked good in the process of winning those fights, but I just can’t shake the fact that things would have been much different for him if he’d been in the UFC all this time. Penn can stand and bang with Diaz, and has the advantage on the ground. Diaz will likely have the cardio advantage if this fight goes the distance, but if Penn already has the first two rounds in the books, it may not matter. That’s what I’m expecting to happen. Penn via unanimous decision.
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