UFC Live: Jones vs. Matyushenko Preview and Predictions
The UFC returns to Versus for their second event on the network. Jon Jones headlined the first UFC show on the network, and after making quick work of Brandon Vera on that night, Jones returns main event status as he takes on veteran Vladimir Matyushenko. The co-main event features Yushin Okami against Mark Munoz.
Tyson Griffin vs. Takanori Gomi: Gomi made his long-awaited UFC debut against Kenny Florian at UFC Fight Night 21, but looked like a shell of the fighter who dominated the lightweight division in PRIDE for so long. He was outclassed from bell to bell by Florian, who eventually finished the fight with a rear-naked choke in the third round. The loss was Gomi’s third loss in his last five fights. Gomi was scheduled to fight Joe Stevenson, but an injury to Stevenson forced him off the card. Griffin stepped in on short notice. Griffin is coming off a split-decision loss to Evan Dunham at UFC 115, but still sports an impressive 8-3 record in the UFC. During his UFC tenure, Griffin has beaten the likes of Hermes Franca, Clay Guida, Marcus Aurelio, and Gleison Tibau, and also defeated Urijah Faber prior to his UFC debut. Griffin is a solid wrestler with good kickboxing, though he doesn’t possess true knockout power. His fights are always exciting, and he sets a fast pace. Gomi would win this fight if he was in his prime, but unfortunately, I think he’s nearly done as a fighter. If Griffin decides to get in a slugfest with Gomi, he could definitely get knocked out. However, I think Griffin will utilize his wrestling more than he has in recent fights, and that will get him the decision victory. Griffin via unanimous decision.
John Howard vs. Jake Ellenberger: Howard has begun his UFC career in style, winning his first four fights, his last two by knockout. He made his debut at UFC 94, defeating Chris Wilson via split decision. He followed that up with another split decision win over Tamdan McCrory at UFC 101, before knocking out Dennis Hallman at the Ultimate Fighter 10 finale (a fight he was losing until the final seconds) and over Daniel Roberts at the first UFC Live event. Ellenberger made his UFC debut at UFC Fight Night 19, where he nearly scored a big upset over Carlos Condit but ended up dropping a close split decision. He followed up that performance with a 2nd round TKO over Mike Pyle at UFC 108. Howard is a pretty well rounded fighter, combining solid and powerful striking with a decent wrestling game. Ellenberger is mainly a wrestler, and a pretty good one at that. He’ll also have a few inches of reach advantage over Howard in this contest. The biggest skill set in this fight is Ellenberger’s wrestling, and that will win him this fight. There may be some tense moments, but Ellenberger will end up with the decision victory. Ellenberger via unanimous decision.
Yushin Okami vs. Mark Munoz: Munoz is coming off an exciting 2nd round victory over Kendall Grove at UFC 112 in a fight that nearly saw him beaten in the 1st round. Munoz came back in the 2nd round and used some brutal ground n’ pound to finish Grove. Munoz is 3-1 in the UFC, with a knockout loss to Matt Hamill as the only blemish on his record. Okami was once a top contender in the middleweight division, but has fallen back somewhat due to a somewhat methodical style as well as a lopsided loss to Chael Sonnen at UFC 104. He was once one of the stronger fighters in the middleweight division, but was manhandled somewhat at the hands of Sonnen. Like Sonnen, Munoz’s strength is his wrestling. He was a national champion at Oklahoma State but for some reason prefers to keep fights standing in the cage. He also has a very powerful ground n’ pound attack. Okami may struggle somewhat with the wrestling ability of Munoz if he uses it. Okami should be the stronger striker of the two, though he has never been known as a great striker himself. Munoz is still young in the sport and is prone to mistakes, the kind of mistakes a veteran like Okami can exploit. However, Munoz can be explosive if he used his wrestling well in the cage. This is a toss-up for me, but I think that Munoz’s wrestling ability wins out in the end. Munoz via unanimous decision.
Jon Jones vs. Vladimir Matyushenko: Matyushenko is a solid veteran light heavyweight. He rattled off an eight-fight winning streak from 2005-2008, before having it ended by Antonio Rogerio Nogueira. He had beaten Nogueira in their first contest in 2002. Matyushenko fought for the UFC light heavyweight championship at UFC 33 in 2001, but lost a unanimous decision to Tito Ortiz. After the loss to Ortiz, Matyushenko came back to defeat Travis Wiuff and Pedro Rizzo at UFC 40 and UFC 41 before losing to Andrei Arlovski at UFC 44. After the loss to Arlovski, Matyushenko fought mainly for the IFL, claiming their light heavyweight championship. He returned to the UFC at UFC 103, winning a unanimous decision over Igor Pokrajac. He followed that up with a split-decision win over Eliot Marshall at the first UFC Live event. Jones is one of the best prospects in the sport. He destroyed Brandon Vera at the first UFC Live event, winning by TKO in the first. The win improved his record to 4-1 in the UFC, with the only loss coming to Matt Hamill via DQ in a fight he was dominating. He comes from a Greco-Roman wrestling background, but is an explosive and creative striker as well. He recently made the switch to Greg Jackson’s camp in New Mexico. Jackson is admittedly working on eliminating some of the risk-taking out of Jones’ game. It’s fun to watch on TV, but opens him up to the possibilty of being caught. The Matyushenko fight is a good step for Jones. He’ll get to take on a tough veteran with a very solid wrestling game who has the ability to grind out a decision against him. Unfortunately for Matyushenko, that’s the only way I see him possibly winning the fight. However, Jones has the potential to win the fight standing, with positional wrestling, or with the vicious ground n’ pound he’s displayed on a couple of occasions. Jones will continue to rise up the rankings with another dominant win. Jones via TKO in the 2nd.
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Can UFC 121 Become the Biggest UFC Pay-Per-View of All-Time?
The simple and most likely answer to this question is “no.” However, I think there are some reasons to believe that if certain factors are met, UFC 121 in October could become the biggest UFC Pay-Per-View of all-time, surpassing the 1.6 million buyrate for UFC 100.
The biggest factor in the equation is the biggest name in the sport, Brock Lesnar. Lesnar has turned into a bonafide PPV superstar, drawing an estimated 1.0-1.3 million buyrate for UFC 116 basically single-handedly. Shane Carwin was a threat to Lesnar’s title, but certainly didn’t do much to promote or hype the fight. The co-main event of the card was a fight between Yoshihiro Akiyama and Chris Leben. Akiyama is a pretty big draw overseas, but that likely didn’t translate into much of a buyrate bump here in North America. Leben is a fun fighter to watch, but certainly didn’t draw any buys by himself. It would have been interesting to see how many more PPV buys there would have been had Wanderlei Silva not had to withdraw from his scheduled fight with Akiyama due to an injury. It likely would have given the buyrate a decent bump.
However, that Lesnar was able to draw one of the top 3 buyrates in the company’s history single-handedly is an impressive feat. Lesnar also headlined UFC 100, which currently holds the top spot in UFC PPV buyrate history at 1.6 million. That card also featured Georges St. Pierre vs. Thiago Alves in a welterweight title fight, as well as Dan Henderson against Michael Bisping after the two were opposing coaches on The Ultimate Fighter.
The scheduled card for UFC 121 falls somewhere between the star-studded UFC 100 card and the star-challenged UFC 116 card. In addition to Lesnar taking on Cain Velasquez, Tito Ortiz is scheduled to return to the Octagon to face Matt Hamill. Ortiz was once one of the biggest draws in the UFC, but time, injuries and lack of performance have taken their toll on Ortiz’s star-power and drawing ability. His main-event fight with Forrest Griffin at UFC 106 only drew a reported 330,000 buys. Ortiz did coach the last season of The Ultimate Fighter , well most of it anyway, before he was replaced by Rich Franklin due to an injury. His name is still good enough for a slight bump in the buyrate, which is something that couldn’t be said for anyone else on the UFC 116 card.
Also on the scheduled card for UFC 121 is Jake Shields. Shields is the former middleweight champion of Strikeforce, but has never been known for being a flashy or extremely popular fighter. His presence on the card will most likely have little effect on the buyrate of UFC 121. However, the combination of a heavyweight title fight between Lesnar and Velasquez, plus Ortiz in the co-main event and an undercard that features Shields and Diego Sanchez (scheduled to fight Paulo Thiago on the main card) is a much stronger card on paper than the UFC 116 card.
Also, the challenger to Lesnar’s heavyweight title needs to be taken into account when talking about potential buyrates. Prior to UFC 116, Shane Carwin did little to really hype or sell the fight. He pretty much relied on people talking about his size similarity to Brock to help sell the fight, but his personality is pretty non-descript. Cain Velasquez isn’t known as a big talker either, but depending on how the UFC handles the build up to the fight, he can certainly become a huge help to the eventual buyrate.
Velasquez is proud of his Mexican heritage, and proudly sports a “Brown Pride” tattoo across his chest. It has become a somewhat controversial topic inside the MMA community. However, the Spanish speaking audience has always been a reliable audience for boxing and even professional wrestling, where Rey Mysterio Jr. was considered a decent draw as a headliner. The Latino audience has been somewhat slow to embrace MMA, but if the UFC can tap into that market with their pre-fight promotion of the event, it could be a big boost to the overall buyrate numbers.
In addition to the fighters on the card, there are other factors that will affect the final buyrate figures. First of all, the Lesnar/Velasquez fight has to live up to the hype. Many buys of UFC 116 were generated after the event itself, when word of Lesnar’s dramatic comeback started to spread to those who hadn’t yet seen the event. The Lesnar/Velasquez fight has to be intriguing enough to sell a good number of pay-per-views after the event initially airs.
In my opinion, the UFC also has to have a strong run of cards prior to UFC 121 to build momentum going into the event. UFC 114 is reported to have drawn about a million buys, and UFC 115 did a solid 500,000-600,000 buys with the Rich Franklin/Chuck Liddell main event. Those two pay-per-views built some momentum that carried over into UFC 116. The UFC is expecting good buyrates for the next two events. UFC 117 features a main event between Anderson Silva and Chael Sonnen, while UFC 118 features a rematch between B.J. Penn and Frankie Edgar for the lightweight title, as well as a fight between Randy Couture and former boxing champion James Toney that is sure to garner some publicity. However, UFC 119 in September lacks a huge buzz as a rematch between Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueria serves as the night’s main-event. UFC 121 will get some free publicity the week before the event though, as UFC 120 is expected to air free on Spike on October 16th. Expect lots of promos for Lesnar/Velasquez during that free card.
Finally, the main fighters on the card (Lesnar, Velasquez, Ortiz) need to remain healthy. There are not many events that the UFC plans where at least a few fighters don’t drop out due to injuries prior to the fight. This is the part of the equation where luck will play a major role.
In the end, it comes down to Lesnar and the UFC. Lesnar seems to be becoming more and more popular everyday. The amount of press he got after his victory at UFC 116 almost guarantees that his next fight will draw nearly the same amount of pay-per-view buys regardless of opponent or the quality of other fighters on the card. Brock is the biggest star in the sport, and his presence on the card will account for the majority of Pay-Per-View sales, but Dana White and the UFC have to do an effective job of marketing not only Lesnar, but also Velasquez as a credible challenger (which he is) to make the event even bigger. The opportunity is there for this event to become the biggest UFC pay-per-view of all-time. It’s now up to the fighters, the marketing and a little bit of luck to make it turn out that way.
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Strikeforce Champ Shields Near Deal With UFC
Current Strikeforce middleweight champion Jake Shields is close to finalizing a deal with the UFC according to various reports. Shields has been in negotiations with the UFC since his last title defense in April against Dan Henderson.
UFC president Dana White has not hidden his desire to get Shields into his promotion, mouthing “He’s mine” while sitting next to Shields at the WEC 48 pay-per-view. Strikeforce initally expressed hope that Shields would resign with the organization, but sensing the inevitable, they released Shields from his contract on June 30th, leaving the UFC as Shields’ only suitor.
While he was the Strikeforce middleweight champion, Shields is a natural welterweight. He took fights at middleweight in Strikeforce because there weren’t many matchups for him at welterweight. He is expected to compete in the welterweight division in the UFC, and many reports indicate that the UFC is planning a fight between Shields and welterweight contender Martin Kampmann. Kampmann is 4-1 in his past five fights, with the only loss coming to Paul Daley at UFC 103.
Shields is 25-4-1 in his MMA career, and has notable victories over Henderson, Jason “Mayhem” Miller, Robbie Lawler, Paul Daley, Carlos Condit and Yushin Okami. Shields has won his past 14 fights, and would instantly become a top challenger to Georges St. Pierre’s welterweight title. The 31-year old Shields holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu from Cesar Gracie, and also boasts a strong amateur wrestling background.
In his last contest against Dan Henderson, Shields came back from being rocked in the first round to dominate the fight en route to a unanimous decision victory over the former PRIDE welterweight and middleweight champion. After the fight, Shields and “Mayhem” Miller got into a shouting match which led to the brawl between Miller, Shields and his teammates at Cesar Gracie Jiu-Jitsu which was captured live on CBS television.
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Lesnar vs. Velasquez Slated for UFC 121 in Anaheim
After UFC president Dana White shot down rumors that UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar would next defend his title against Cain Velasquez at UFC 119 in Indianapolis, many wondered when the fight would take place. That speculation can end as White confirmed that Lesnar will face Velasquez at UFC 121 in Anaheim this October.
Lesnar and his wife are expecting their second child soon, and he was hesitant to jump right back into another training camp so quickly. The scheduled October fight will give the champion some time off with his family before he has to start another training camp.
The UFC was anxious to get the Lesnar/Velasquez fight signed due to the layoff that Velasquez has already had. He last fought at UFC 110 in February, where he was very impressive in stopping former champion Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira in the 1st round via TKO. The win improved Velasquez’s record to 8-0, including a 6-0 run to begin his UFC career.
The Lesnar/Velasquez fight is an interesting contest on paper. Velasquez was an excellent wrestler at Arizona State, and was named an All-American after both his Junior and Senior seasons. He also has shown progressive improvements in his striking game, battering both Ben Rothwell and Nogueira in his last two outings. His conditioning was tested in a three-round unanimous decision win over Cheick Kongo at UFC 99, so he probably won’t gas out as quickly as Shane Carwin did.
Another difference between Velasquez and Carwin is their size. Whereas Carwin was almost as big as Lesnar when the two fought, Velasquez will come into the fight at a 20-25 lb disadvantage. He was asked about trying to get a little bigger before the Lesnar fight, but Velasquez maintains that his normal weight of 240-245 is his optimal fighting weight, and that he’s not concerned about a size differential in the title fight.
UFC 121 is scheduled to take place on October 23rd in Anaheim, CA.
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Mir/Nogueira II To Headline UFC 119
The UFC has confirmed that a rematch between heavyweights Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will headline UFC 119, scheduled to take place in Indianapolis, Indiana in September.
The two previously clashed at UFC 92 in December of 2008, where Mir shocked many by battering Nogueira over two rounds before getting the TKO victory. After the fight, Nogueira revealed he had been battling a nasty staph infection prior to the contest, and while showing respect to Mir for the victory, made it known that he would like a rematch down the line. It finally comes in late September.
It will be interesting to see how Mir comes into this contest. After his loss to Brock Lesnar at UFC 100, Mir decided that he needed to add bulk to compete with the bigger heavyweights. After weighing close to 245 for his fight with Nogueira, Mir came into recent fights against Cheick Kongo and Shane Carwin at close to 265 pounds. Despite the added bulk, Mir still looked noticably smaller than Carwin prior to the fight, and Carwin was able to use his superior strength to hold Mir against the cage while delivering punishing blows. Mir has said recently that he will likely try to shed most of the muscle mass he added in the past year, and will likely try to get back to around 245 pounds.
This fight is a must-win for both fighters to remain relevant in the UFC’s heavyweight division. Even the winner will have a hard time getting back in line for a title shot, but for the loser, the chance may never come around again.
In the co-main event of the evening, Nogueira’s twin brother, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira, will face off against Ryan Bader in a light heavyweight contest. Rogerio is coming off a surprisingly difficult split-decision win over Jason Brilz at UFC 114 in May. Bader is an impressive 11-0 in his career, and is 4-0 in the UFC. He most recently beat Keith Jardine via KO at UFC 110 in February. The winner of this contest will be in prime position for a future title shot.
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UFC 116 Post-Fight Thoughts
UFC 116 was, quite simply, one of the most exciting MMA Pay-Per-Views of all time. From the prelims to the main card, nearly every fight provided great finishes, exciting back-and-forth action or fantastic comebacks. Here are some of my post-fight notes.
- Brendan Schaub has the hands and the power to reach the middle of the UFC’s heavyweight division. His quick 1st round KO of Chris Tuchscherer was impressive. He’s still young enough and talented enough to improve on his ground game, which is something he’ll have to do to ever compete with the best heavyweights in the world.
- George Sotiropolous is definitely closing in on a lightweight title shot. He controlled much of the first two rounds against Kurt Pellegrino, and showed improved striking. His ground game is still one of the best in the UFC’s lightweight division, though his takedown defense still needs work. He’s probably one more win away from being in the title shot conversation after improving his UFC record to 6-0 with the unanimous decision win.
- The Stephan Bonnar/Krzysztof Soszynski fight was far from pretty, but was extremely entertaining. Bonnar got a much needed win. No one ever doubted his guts, and he showed a ton of them on Saturday night.
- Chris Lytle likes to downplay his ground credentials, but he used them to notch a submission win over Matt Brown. The armbar was probably headed to submission of the night status, until the next two fights happened anyway.
- What can you really say about Chris Leben? Not only did he take the fight against a really tough opponent in Yoshihiro Akiyama on very short notice only 2 weeks after his last fight, but he was the one who was able to dig down deep to latch onto a triangle only seconds before the bell. Leben combines one of the toughest chins in all of MMA with an obvious abundance of heart and has now won two fights in two weeks. Akiyama, meanwhile, needs to get his conditioning up to par. He looks like a more natural welterweight in the Octagon, and that is where his future may be.
- Shane Carwin impressed me in the first round. His all-out blitz of Brock Lesnar was a little shocking to witness, but proved that what everyone said about his power was true. However, that was all completely undone as he was unable to finish a clearly hurt Lesnar, and came out in the second round completely gassed. His cardio had been a question coming in, and remains one after the fight.
- Brock Lesnar proved that he can take punishment from one of the biggest and hardest hitters in all of MMA, and still had the heart to fight on. His cardio was impressive, as he came out in the 2nd round much fresher than Carwin. He was able to get the takedown, and patiently worked for the submission. Lesnar had already proven that he was the most dominant heavyweight in the UFC, but this victory answered many questions that people had about him, namely his ability to recover from adversity during a fight.
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UFC 116 Preview and Predictions
UFC 116 features one of the most anticipated heavyweight fights of all-time as Brock Lesnar takes on Shane Carwin for the heavyweight title. The undercard has some significant fights as well.
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